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C Joseph Veleno - Saint John Sea Dogs, QMJHL (2018, 30th, DET)

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JK2K said:
I’d be surprised if Kupari plays in the NHL.
Kotkaniemi May, but only if his dad is on the bench..... like he is now.
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Kupari I agree with. But Kotkaniemi is having a very strong season and if he improves his skating a little, has all the tools to be successful in the NHL.

McBain, IMO, is a 3rd line centre. Middle 6 at best.
 
Castle8130 said:
Ive seen plenty of video on this kid and i'm barely basing it off his goal stats, but he has a horrible shot and not the best goal scoring ability. Having said that, pretty great skater, good vision, and creates time and space for his teammates.
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A year ago people said Robert Thomas didn't shoot enough and didn't have a good shot. The next year he beats out Rasmussen and Glass and others to make Team Canada's WJC team.
 
Redder Winger said:
A year ago people said Robert Thomas didn't shoot enough and didn't have a good shot. The next year he beats out Rasmussen and Glass and others to make Team Canada's WJC team.
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Thomas never had a bad shot, going into the draft he just wasn't as dominate. Look at his highlights and shift by shifts and you'll see that he gets momentum on the puck after skating, Veleno doesn't. Veleno can skate very fast and it seems as if there is little power on his shot. Veleno could have good shooting accuracy, but I haven't seen him at all in practice to know how it is.
 
I think Veleno will likely make a team fairly happy if he's selected mid to late first round.

While I think he needs to work on his shot, he is shooting enoigh that he'd likely have double the goals with a normalized shooting percentage. So I feel his points are a bit artificially depressed this year.
 
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Janne Niinimaa said:
I would be shocked if Veleno slipped out of the first round, let alone makes it to the 3rd round. His skating, defensive play and hands are among the best of any forward expected to go in the first round. His hype surpassed him but at worst, think of him as a similar prospect to Michael McLeod a few years back.


Thomas and Bokk likely won't be centres. Veleno, Kotkaniemi and Hayton are the top ranked true centres in this draft.
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Thomas is 5'11 which is literally a shade below 6 feet and Bokk has played mainly on wing, yes, but has the capability to play center.

Veleno has started scoring, because who knew a 4% shooting percentage for a high end talent was unsustainable. I still wouldn't draft him before Lundestrom/Thomas/Tkachuk.
 
Castle8130 said:
Thomas never had a bad shot, going into the draft he just wasn't as dominate. Look at his highlights and shift by shifts and you'll see that he gets momentum on the puck after skating, Veleno doesn't. Veleno can skate very fast and it seems as if there is little power on his shot. Veleno could have good shooting accuracy, but I haven't seen him at all in practice to know how it is.
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Thomas is also shooting damn near 30% which is wildly unsustainable; Veleno is shooting 4% for reference.

Average shooting numbers for both would actually give Veleno slightly more points than Thomas.
 
FIlove Zadina said:
Thomas is 5'11 which is literally a shade below 6 feet and Bokk has played mainly on wing, yes, but has the capability to play center.

Veleno has started scoring, because who knew a 4% shooting percentage for a high end talent was unsustainable. I still wouldn't draft him before Lundestrom/Thomas/Tkachuk.
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Akil Thomas plays absolutely no defense and isn't even 170 pounds. He would have to gain quite a bit of weight (maybe affecting his speed) and learn how to play in his own zone. IMO, he is definitely not a centre. He can be flashy on the wing.
 
Janne Niinimaa said:
Akil Thomas plays absolutely no defense and isn't even 170 pounds. He would have to gain quite a bit of weight (maybe affecting his speed) and learn how to play in his own zone. IMO, he is definitely not a centre. He can be flashy on the wing.
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aleksi heponiemi.

I don't know why flashiness=bad defense but here we are.
 
FIlove Zadina said:
Thomas is also shooting damn near 30% which is wildly unsustainable; Veleno is shooting 4% for reference.

Average shooting numbers for both would actually give Veleno slightly more points than Thomas.
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Numbers are off.

Thomas is shooting at about 10% (12G/116SOG).

Velano is shooting at about 6% (8G/134SOG).

You're right though, if Velano was shooting at the same rate he'd have to 5-6 more goals, which would put him just above Thomas in terms of points.
 
FIlove Zadina said:
aleksi heponiemi.

I don't know why flashiness=bad defense but here we are.
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Flashiness doesnt equal bad defense. His bad defensive play equals bad defense. But on the wing he can play that way without it being too harmful.

I don't know if Heponiemi is a centre long term either. He's probably a winger to Barkov, Trocheck or Borgstrom.
 
Hale The Villain said:
Numbers are off.

Thomas is shooting at about 10% (12G/116SOG).

Velano is shooting at about 6% (8G/134SOG).

You're right though, if Velano was shooting at the same rate he'd have to 5-6 more goals, which would put him just above Thomas in terms of points.
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Thomas has 21 goals.
h-LkfbysQA2d2Fkm7-rjSA.png

2nd column is goals, last one is shots.
7snukJIrR0Sa6mPVKwxCKw.png


Meaning that at average shooting percentage Thomas would have (0.08 x 83) goals = 6.64
And Veleno at the same average Veleno would have (0.08 x 132) goals = 10.56

Round down and that would give Veleno 10 goals and 38 assists=48 points
Would also bring Thomas to 6 goals and 34 assists=40 points.

At 10% shooting Thomas would have 8.3 goals and Veleno would have 13.2 goals so
Veleno = 13+38 = 51
Thomas = 8+34 = 42

So if each player was shooting at or above average Veleno would be out scoring Thomas by 7-10 points

So, interpret this as you will. Personally, I'm interpreting it as Veleno isn't a late 1st talent but a mid round guy.
 
Hale The Villain said:
Numbers are off.

Thomas is shooting at about 10% (12G/116SOG).

Velano is shooting at about 6% (8G/134SOG).

You're right though, if Velano was shooting at the same rate he'd have to 5-6 more goals, which would put him just above Thomas in terms of points.
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I always find the logic in this analysis a bit off. I feel to actually get an accurate representation, you would have to remove any point scored off a rebound, or atleast balance them out. Because if a guy has a low indvidual shooting percentage, but an average oiSH% than the points just might be redistributed.
 
93LEAFS said:
I always find the logic in this analysis a bit off. I feel to actually get an accurate representation, you would have to remove any point scored off a rebound, or atleast balance them out. Because if a guy has a low indvidual shooting percentage, but an average oiSH% than the points just might be redistributed.
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And I find the analysis in this a bit off as well because a shot is a shot, and for every number of shooting plays there are going to be a number of rebounds, and this is true for every shooter, so if you try to account for solely actual shots, you just have a run-around where you get similar numbers because every player benefits from a rebound as well.
 
FIlove Zadina said:
And I find the analysis in this a bit off as well because a shot is a shot, and for every number of shooting plays there are going to be a number of rebounds, and this is true for every shooter, so if you try to account for solely actual shots, you just have a run-around where you get similar numbers because every player benefits from a rebound as well.
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Except the shots you are hoping they could convert could have gone in on the first shot. It could directly impact assist totals. Which is why on-ice shooting percentage is a much better measure for quantifying scoring, but unfortunately this info isn't publicly available for the CHL. Which is why just extrapolating individual shooting percentage to league norms and adding that to raw totals is a bit pointless.
 
Lays said:
I’ll be surprised if McBain ends up as anything more than a 3rd liner
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Yeah I wouldn’t count on a guy who can barely increase his offensive production in a Tier 2 junior league from the year previous.
 
le_sean said:
Yeah I wouldn’t count on a guy who can barely increase his offensive production in a Tier 2 junior league from the year previous.
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McBain will go second round.
Veleno has dropped enough due to the exceptional status "backlash". I believe he may actually climb up a bit as the scouts settle down and focus on his talents.
 
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Keep shooting more and he'll do better.

He's a top-15 talent and I think the players between 6-15 are fairly fluid.
 
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He’s at 18 pts in 12 games with Drummondville. I think his stats with SJ were more a result of poor overall offensive production from the team.
 

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