C Jay O'Brien - Charlotte Checkers, AHL (2018, 19th, PHI released)

[MSSLYNX]

Not good enough for USDP
Not good enough for USHL
Not good enough for NCAA
----------------------------------------------

What a pick...

You forgot CHL
And might not make it in BCHL

But trending on HF.

Guy was playing prep school in 2017-18, like Mark Jankowski drafted 21st in 2012 out of Stanstead prep school. Went on to play 4 seasons in NCAA (Providence as well) , 1 AHL (killed it btw), now will start 3rd season NHL.

Next 2018 draftee from US HS was Jordan Harris, 3rd rounder for Mtl. Didnt get an invite for big USDP team or World tourney as per Elite prospect site. Nothing special, nothing god awful first season NCAA.
edit: Harris maybe not American, didnt check before

 

[AmericanDream]

You forgot CHL
And might not make it in BCHL

But trending on HF.

Guy was playing prep school in 2017-18, like Mark Jankowski drafted 21st in 2012 out of Stanstead prep school. Went on to play 4 seasons in NCAA (Providence as well) , 1 AHL (killed it btw), now will start 3rd season NHL.

Next 2018 draftee from US HS was Jordan Harris, 3rd rounder for Mtl. Didnt get an invite for big USDP team or World tourney as per Elite prospect site. Nothing special, nothing god awful first season NCAA.
edit: Harris maybe not American, didnt check before

Harris is American...

 

[MSSLYNX]

Harris is American...

Yeah checked afterwards. Because he was a Mtl player i was sure to get roasted quickly if he had been a Canadian.

Point is O'Brien at least got the invites, made the teams but did not do well with his chances. Thats on him. Read about injuries. Not sure about timelines and not important at this time. Guy wants to play more. Dominated prep school Didnt go well in Providence against older guys and there could be good and lousy reasons why this is the case. I'm going with the Amonte angle as of now. Makes sense to me.

 

[AmericanDream]

Yeah checked afterwards. Because he was a Mtl player i was sure to get roasted quickly if he had been a Canadian.

Point is O'Brien at least got the invites, made the teams but did not do well with his chances. Thats on him. Read about injuries. Not sure about timelines and not important at this time. Guy wants to play more. Dominated prep school Didnt go well in Providence against older guys and there could be good and lousy reasons why this is the case. I'm going with the Amonte angle as of now. Makes sense to me.

I don't have many issues with this as well. It is not an ideal path to success, but don't kid yourself (not meant for you) for one minute, this kid has family advisers and Flyers management to help guide him. He has to do what is best for his development and playing in the Q is just not an ideal situation for many US kids. I have seen players like Derek Ryan and Joel Ward take some strange paths to make it to the show, but 1st round picks typically do not go backwards like this. If he torches the BCHL and plays a lot of games/minutes while keeping his NCAA eligibility, we can then asses further when he picks whatever school it will be the following season. I am hoping he goes to Denver or Wisconsin as he is heading out West and both programs would be great for him.

 

[OldScool]

I don't have many issues with this as well. It is not an ideal path to success, but don't kid yourself (not meant for you) for one minute, this kid has family advisers and Flyers management to help guide him. He has to do what is best for his development and playing in the Q is just not an ideal situation for many US kids. I have seen players like Derek Ryan and Joel Ward take some strange paths to make it to the show, but 1st round picks typically do not go backwards like this. If he torches the BCHL and plays a lot of games/minutes while keeping his NCAA eligibility, we can then asses further when he picks whatever school it will be the following season. I am hoping he goes to Denver or Wisconsin as he is heading out West and both programs would be great for him.

Real question is why isnt he playing in the USHL instead of the BCHL....

 

[MSSLYNX]

Real question is why isnt he playing in the USHL instead of the BCHL....

Not sure why this is a thing. Not an expert on these leagues. Whats the big difference?

 

[AmericanDream]

Real question is why isnt he playing in the USHL instead of the BCHL....

he did play there briefly prior, my question would be this as well. until we have an interview with his decision, and we will at some point down the line this is the only question that I would like to hear his decision on.

 

[BondraTime]

You forgot CHL
And might not make it in BCHL

But trending on HF.

Guy was playing prep school in 2017-18, like Mark Jankowski drafted 21st in 2012 out of Stanstead prep school. Went on to play 4 seasons in NCAA (Providence as well) , 1 AHL (killed it btw), now will start 3rd season NHL.

Next 2018 draftee from US HS was Jordan Harris, 3rd rounder for Mtl. Didnt get an invite for big USDP team or World tourney as per Elite prospect site. Nothing special, nothing god awful first season NCAA.
edit: Harris maybe not American, didnt check before

Janakowski
17 year old season - Prep School
18 year old season - 1st season in Providence
19 year old season - 2nd season in Providence
20 yes and old season - 3rd season in Peovidence

O'Brien
17 years old season - Prep School
18 year old season - Prep school
19 year old season - 1st year in Providence
20 year old season - 1st year in BCHL as an Overager

Their development and path couldn't be different, O'Broen is far, far behind where Janakowski was.

 

[Kipper933]

Best guess is the Canadian junior A leagues are slightly more experienced, there are more 18 and 19-year olds in them, average age is about half a year higher than the USHL. So, presumably, a tougher defensive league.

 

[New Jersey Devils]

Yeah, not going to the USHL is very odd. Brett Murray (2016 99th overall pick for the Sabres) has almost a similar career parth. Played at Penn State in 17-18 and then left to play for the Phantoms in the USHL for 18-19. He's going to play for Miami (OH) for 19-20.

 

[MSSLYNX]

Janakowski
17 year old season - Prep School
18 year old season - 1st season in Providence
19 year old season - 2nd season in Providence
20 yes and old season - 3rd season in Peovidence

O'Brien
17 years old season - Prep School
18 year old season - Prep school
19 year old season - 1st year in Providence
20 year old season - 1st year in BCHL as an Overager

Their development and path couldn't be different, O'Broen is far, far behind where Janakowski was.

I am truly trying to follow your math and i seem to be bad at it.

So 17 years old season is exactly the same. Didnt check birth certificates.

18 one is still in Prep while the other went to NCAA. Are we already far far behind here? I dont view this as a race. First one to NCAA doesnt win anything. Sure we agree.

19 we're at 1 season difference in NCAA? Am i still ok here??

Up to that point, i only see a 1 year difference. Cant be what you mean by far far behind and thats where we stand today.

What if tomorrow OBrien changes his mind and plays CHL. Would the far far behind comment be obsolete or still there?

 

[MSSLYNX]

Yeah, not going to the USHL is very odd. Brett Murray (2016 99th overall pick for the Sabres) has almost a similar career parth. Played at Penn State in 17-18 and then left to play for the Phantoms in the USHL for 18-19. He's going to play for Miami (OH) for 19-20.

Thanks. Interesting path indeed.

 

[OldScool]

Best guess is the Canadian junior A leagues are slightly more experienced, there are more 18 and 19-year olds in them, average age is about half a year higher than the USHL. So, presumably, a tougher defensive league.

Absolutely wrong. No defense is played in the BCHL.

 

[OldScool]

Not sure why this is a thing. Not an expert on these leagues. Whats the big difference?

USHL is a better league than the BCHL. More physical, better players, closer to home....

 

[MSSLYNX]

USHL is a better league than the BCHL. More physical, better players, closer to home....

Right there maybe? Wants to get away a little? We're talking 1 yr here i believe.

 

[bigdog16]

Real question is why isnt he playing in the USHL instead of the BCHL....

Absolutely wrong. No defense is played in the BCHL.

USHL is a better league than the BCHL. More physical, better players, closer to home....

All of this is accurate. Makes no sense for him to go to the BCHL. He would need to put up absurd numbers (like 2.5-3 ppg) to still be considered a legit prospect. Sure he might get his confidence back, but he could definitely form some bad habits there.

 

[MSSLYNX]

Right now from Chiraldi's twitter: Boston U. is believed to be the frontrunner for the #Flyers’ prospect in 2020-21, according to a source.

Vague but still

 

[OldScool]

Right there maybe? Wants to get away a little? We're talking 1 yr here i believe.

Its not the end of the world but that "1st round" pick label is what is the real issue. 1st round picks are expected to be studs and stars. Philly reached for OBrien. He was really an overager playing prep hockey against younger kids. Had a great season and hype took over. Philly reaches for him. Instead of taking normal path of playing year of USHL to adjust to speed he is a "1st round pick" and goes directly to Hockey East NCAA from Prep (high school). He struggles mightily at Providence which is an older veteran talent laden team where Leaman runs a tight ship and expects a lot from players. OBrien gets suspended from team for violation and then gets injured and never progresses and then leaves school. Now has the choice to go to USHL or BCHL to keep eligibility in NCAA. Decides to go to BCHL for some reason where league is wide open with no defense instead of tougher USHL. Really have question his advisors and that 1st round pick tag puts the added pressure on. If he was a 3rd round pick he probably goes prep-ushl-Ncaa and is better equipped for that level.

 

[BondraTime]

I am truly trying to follow your math and i seem to be bad at it.

So 17 years old season is exactly the same. Didnt check birth certificates.

18 one is still in Prep while the other went to NCAA. Are we already far far behind here? I dont view this as a race. First one to NCAA doesnt win anything. Sure we agree.

19 we're at 1 season difference in NCAA? Am i still ok here??

Up to that point, i only see a 1 year difference. Cant be what you mean by far far behind and thats where we stand today.

What if tomorrow OBrien changes his mind and plays CHL. Would the far far behind comment be obsolete or still there?

They would still be there. I think you're underestimating how rare what he is doing is.

Going to the CHL as a drafted prospect for an overage season is extremely rare. Heading to a league like the BCHL, is unheard of.

Riley Hughes heading to Victoria as an 18 year old 7th round pick was viewed as a coup for Victoria, as any drafted player rarely goes to the BCHL after being drafted.

O'Brien will be the first ever 1st round pick to play in the league after being drafted, and he's doing it as an unprecedented 20 year old. The league consists of 5-6 high end (NHL drafted players) 17/18 year olds per year, and the rest are guys who will go on to play D1/D3, and guys who played games in the CHL but couldn't crack the league that year, and 90% of the guys in the league are younger than him.

By the time he completes his 2nd year in the NCAA, he will be 21 years old, while Janakowski would have just finished his NCAA 4 year career as a 21 year old. Not to mention how much better Janakowski was in the NCAA at a younger age.

 

[MSSLYNX]

All of this is accurate. Makes no sense for him to go to the BCHL. He would need to put up absurd numbers (like 2.5-3 ppg) to still be considered a legit prospect. Sure he might get his confidence back, but he could definitely form some bad habits there.

That bar is quite high. League leader was future 1st rounder Newhook under 2. Year before 1.27. He needs to double that to be a still a prospect? I hope Penticton is some powerhouse with good teammates to have a shot! Jost got 2.16 ppg on a 50-7 team.

OBrien wont score 3 pts a game.

You probably think he already has bad habits having played Prep school.

 

[MSSLYNX]

Its not the end of the world but that "1st round" pick label is what is the real issue. 1st round picks are expected to be studs and stars. Philly reached for OBrien. He was really an overager playing prep hockey against younger kids. Had a great season and hype took over. Philly reaches for him. Instead of taking normal path of playing year of USHL to adjust to speed he is a "1st round pick" and goes directly to Hockey East NCAA from Prep (high school). He struggles mightily at Providence which is an older veteran talent laden team where Leaman runs a tight ship and expects a lot from players. OBrien gets suspended from team for violation and then gets injured and never progresses and then leaves school. Now has the choice to go to USHL or BCHL to keep eligibility in NCAA. Decides to go to BCHL for some reason where league is wide open with no defense instead of tougher USHL. Really have question his advisors and that 1st round pick tag puts the added pressure on. If he was a 3rd round pick he probably goes prep-ushl-Ncaa and is better equipped for that level.

Oh thats a new info to me. What did he do? That explains even more why he left.

 

[MSSLYNX]

About the age thing: While at Thayer Academy, he played with Amonte who is 2 months younger than him. Both scoring leaders in that league (he was 3rd) from some Academy were older than him, one by a full 7 months.
Why are you saying he was playing prep hockey against younger kids??
edit: just checked top 10 scorers, JOB is right in the middle as the 5th oldest. So he played right in his age class unless i am missing something.

 

[OldScool]

Oh thats a new info to me. What did he do? That explains even more why he left.

All that was released is that it is a "one-game ban for a violation of team rules." Still being a #1 pick, a freshman and violating team rules isnt the ideal start to your NCAA career.

 

[MSSLYNX]

All that was released is that it is a "one-game ban for a violation of team rules." Still being a #1 pick, a freshman and violating team rules isnt the ideal start to your NCAA career.

ah ok... You care a lot about the fact he was a 1st rounder. Me not that much. Not because of him, but because they drafted safely and seemed to have hit 5 picks earlier.

In 3-4 yrs who cares if the new player was a 1st or a 2nd (JOB was 2nd rounder material)??

But i get your point: he is far far behind for a 1st rounder. Agree.

 

[OldScool]

About the age thing: While at Thayer Academy, he played with Amonte who is 2 months younger than him. Both scoring leaders in that league (he was 3rd) from some Academy were older than him, one by a full 7 months.
Why are you saying he was playing prep hockey against younger kids??

Because the ISL prep league is essentially high school players. His opponents sometimes include 8th grade players (2002 birth year players) where he was a 1999. He was one of the oldest players in the league and never came off the ice. Usually good players (D1 potential players) leave as juniors or seniors to play jr hockey since playing as a senior vs kids that are 4 years younger isnt going to get you ready for D1 hockey. O'Brien had a great season but keep in mind he was old for that level of play. Looking back he should have probably left Thayer after jr season, went to USHL then would be entering NCAA this year.