C Frederik Gauthier (2013, 21st, TOR)

[Aceboogie]

Gauthier upside wasn't offensive, but it was there none the less.

And no Gordon is not his upside. All third liners are not created equal. Gauthier was a first round prospect because there was the chance he could turn into the true modern version of the shutdown centre. A guy that you can play against the top centres in the league and shut them down with both defensive awareness and possession play. While his high end finishing/ playmaking skill is practically non-existent he does have the size, skill and offensive awareness to maintain and drive possession play in the other teams end even if he never gets anything done.

The player that he had/ has the potential to be (though it looks like he'll never get there) is rare and more valuable than a run of the mill top 6 winger. He negates the other teams top lines, freeing up yours to run rampant on weaker opposition, he tilts the ice in your favor, he allows you to win without a stud 1st line centre.

That is not Boyd Gordon. While it looks like that is all he may become at this point, his potential was so much more

Gordon was drafted 1st round 17th overall and put up 81 points in his final year in the WHL, compared to Gauthiers 50 (if 56 games are played). Basically in junior Gordon was superior and by a decent margin

Gordon is a premier shutdown center who takes the brunt of DZ zone draws and high quality opposition, basically what you want in a bottom 6 center. Sure these role players are important, but to say they are more important than a top 6 guy is extremely laughable. Depth guys are on the FA market almost every year, and most were better prospects than Guathier in junior. If Gauthier was a 3rd or later round pick, his upside as a bottom 6 guy would be very important. But in the first round you need to find talented players, as you can only find these guys in the early round, by trade, or by vastly overpaying.

Also not sure of the bolded. Sure at the draft his potential was as a great 3c, or maybe 2c if everything goes right, but people still mentioned he had extremely limited upside. But now after 2 years of stalled progession Gordon is a pretty damn good upside. Not sure if you are agreeing, or contradicting yourself

 

[4thline]

Gordon was drafted 1st round 17th overall and put up 81 points in his final year in the WHL, compared to Gauthiers 50 (if 56 games are played). Basically in junior Gordon was superior and by a decent margin

Gordon is a premier shutdown center who takes the brunt of DZ zone draws and high quality opposition, basically what you want in a bottom 6 center. Sure these role players are important, but to say they are more important than a top 6 guy is extremely laughable. Depth guys are on the FA market almost every year, and most were better prospects than Guathier in junior. If Gauthier was a 3rd or later round pick, his upside as a bottom 6 guy would be very important. But in the first round you need to find talented players, as you can only find these guys in the early round, by trade, or by vastly overpaying.

Also not sure of the bolded. Sure at the draft his potential was as a great 3c, or maybe 2c if everything goes right, but people still mentioned he had extremely limited upside. But now after 2 years of stalled progession Gordon is a pretty damn good upside. Not sure if you are agreeing, or contradicting yourself

I'm agreeing that Gordon as his upside now is good and fair, but at the draft it was much higher. I don't think the Leafs ever thought he would be a viable second offensive option, but that is potential as a possession driving (as opposed to turtle shelling) shutdown centre was worth worth the risk on him just being a 4th liner.

Its hard to describe what I mean without being hyperbolic, but I think they envisioned him as a matchup buster. Someone who despite being your third guy could play 20 minutes a night against your proverbial Crosby line and hold them to one goal if not neutralizing them entirely so that you can win the game with your own first line. Allow you to beat teams that you can't match power on power. A truly Elite third line centre.

If Boyd Gordon is that guy too and is just being lost in the darkness that is Edmonton, kudos to him. Hopefully they can hold onto him and he keeps up this level of play when the d and g are ready to compete, because that type of 3c is the perfect compliment to RNH. Hell if Gordon is that guy I'd easily value him higher than a guy like Perron on a team like the Leafs. (No true number one centre, plenty of wing depth)

 

[Aceboogie]

I'm agreeing that Gordon as his upside now is good and fair, but at the draft it was much higher. I don't think the Leafs ever thought he would be a viable second offensive option, but that is potential as a possession driving (as opposed to turtle shelling) shutdown centre was worth worth the risk on him just being a 4th liner.

Its hard to describe what I mean without being hyperbolic, but I think they envisioned him as a matchup buster. Someone who despite being your third guy could play 20 minutes a night against your proverbial Crosby line and hold them to one goal if not neutralizing them entirely so that you can win the game with your own first line. Allow you to beat teams that you can't match power on power. A truly Elite third line centre.

If Boyd Gordon is that guy too and is just being lost in the darkness that is Edmonton, kudos to him. Hopefully they can hold onto him and he keeps up this level of play when the d and g are ready to compete, because that type of 3c is the perfect compliment to RNH. Hell if Gordon is that guy I'd easily value him higher than a guy like Perron on a team like the Leafs. (No true number one centre, plenty of wing depth)

Im not sure there is a guy in the NHL right now that you are describing. If you are playing 20 minutes a night against top lines and not putting up some points, its likely because that guy is being outshot at a massive margin and also out possessed.

So for 20 mins a game you are basically giving up the opportunity to score (that is if the 3cs role is only to prevent scoring chances). I don't think I know of any 3cs out there that are considered elite who don't chip in offensively or atleast generate chances at a great rate

Either way, I think Gordon is a great comparable, and maybe "premier" was the wrong word for him, but he is certainty valuable. He is more or less someone who gets the brunt of the tough starts against the best opponets. But all it took to get him was a slight overpayment in FA. What it took to get Perron was a top young player (at the time) and a high second, and also a desperate team looking for cap relief. It is much tougher to get Perron, that's why you want these type of guys in the first round.

For another comparison, a guy like Yakimov is a very similar prospect to Gauthier and was found in the third round. I think you want to go for Shinkaruk in the first and a Yakimov in the third.

 

[RyanOhReally]

For another comparison, a guy like Yakimov is a very similar prospect to Gauthier and was found in the third round. I think you want to go for Shinkaruk in the first and a Yakimov in the third.

I'd say the Russian factor is why he went that low. Which is stupid in my opinion.

At the time of the Draft, Gauthier was expected to improve offensively. I don't think he hasn't improved, as he's on a very stacked Rimouski team playing a shut down role putting up PPG. He even generated a lot of offensive chances at the WJC with his heavy forechecking.

Personally, I was hoping for either Horvat, Rychel or Mantha. All were taken. I was then thinking they'd then go with Burakovsky because he seemed like the BPA, but they went with the safe pick. I did my research on him and kind of realized that hey, this was a smart pick. He's a stud defensively and is an almost sure thing to play some kind of role on an NHL team. Now that it's 18 months later, I'm really stoked for him. He'll be a key piece for this team when they eventually become a contender 5+ years from now.

If he were on, say, Anaheim, we'd be upset because of their team and prospect pool. Well, lets commit to the rebuild like we are doing and in 2-3 more years we'll all be perfectly fine with Gauthier because we'll have other guys comparable to a Burakovsky.

 

[4thline]

Im not sure there is a guy in the NHL right now that you are describing. If you are playing 20 minutes a night against top lines and not putting up some points, its likely because that guy is being outshot at a massive margin and also out possessed.

So for 20 mins a game you are basically giving up the opportunity to score (that is if the 3cs role is only to prevent scoring chances). I don't think I know of any 3cs out there that are considered elite who don't chip in offensively or atleast generate chances at a great rate

Thats the point I was trying to make about the uniqueness of Gauthier, if he panned out into what I'm describing those things you describe don't happen. I know its frowned upon, but use the World Juniors as an example. His line dominated possession and he was a big part of that but he still got what, one assist? He knows how to get into the oppositions zone, stay there, and play there. If he panned out he wouldn't be dramatically out possessed, its the evolution of the shutdown centre. just like the shutdown defaenceman evolved from a slow physical slug to a well positioned smooth skater that just lacks creativity, the shut down centre will go from a centre that can weather a seige to one that can do that when needed but plays in the other teams end without being a major threat. His lack of production stems from having zero finish and very slow hands. Its actually kind of ridiculous to watch the way he thinks and plays the game and yet be so lackluster offensively. He's constantly in the right spot to support the play and keep it alive, but doesn't finish or create.

Like I said, in my mind he had the potential to be a uniquely elite hockey player, but it probably won't happen.

 

[Dodospice]

At the time of the draft I honestly believed Gauthier had an outside shot at becoming a top 6 player, and a very safe bet to be an NHLer. Now his offensive game hasn't developed like I expected it too... but he still is a safe bet to carve out a career as a 3rd/4th liner. At the draft I wanted them to pick Shinkaruk since I saw top 6 upside in him.

 

[Passchendaele]

Not even a PPG player in his final Jr. season playing on the best team in the Q.. looks bad.

 

[Liminality]

Not even a PPG player in his final Jr. season playing on the best team in the Q.. looks bad.

If he had 4 more points would that really change your opinion of him?

 

[Razz]

Not even a PPG player in his final Jr. season playing on the best team in the Q.. looks bad.

He's not a goal scorer, but rather a defensive Center. This is not a player you evaluate by point totals and will most definitely make the NHL. He is elite at the defensive end of the ice.

 

[Captain Clutch]

Thats the point I was trying to make about the uniqueness of Gauthier, if he panned out into what I'm describing those things you describe don't happen. I know its frowned upon, but use the World Juniors as an example. His line dominated possession and he was a big part of that but he still got what, one assist? He knows how to get into the oppositions zone, stay there, and play there. If he panned out he wouldn't be dramatically out possessed, its the evolution of the shutdown centre. just like the shutdown defaenceman evolved from a slow physical slug to a well positioned smooth skater that just lacks creativity, the shut down centre will go from a centre that can weather a seige to one that can do that when needed but plays in the other teams end without being a major threat. His lack of production stems from having zero finish and very slow hands. Its actually kind of ridiculous to watch the way he thinks and plays the game and yet be so lackluster offensively. He's constantly in the right spot to support the play and keep it alive, but doesn't finish or create.

Like I said, in my mind he had the potential to be a uniquely elite hockey player, but it probably won't happen.

He still will be a uniquely elite hockey player but it will be as a defensive specialist and face-off guy, he will have a long NHL career at this specialty but won't ever put up much offense...

 

[dubey]

If he had 4 more points would that really change your opinion of him?

4 points over the course of an entire season is the difference between scrub and superstar IMO

 

[Countryjunkie]

Before the draft, Frederik Gauthier was considered the best defensive forward available. In fact, some scouts were saying that Gauthier's defensive ability/potential could be elite. So what's changed?

Nothing has changed. If everything works out, Frederik Gauthier will be a 3rd line shut down specialist for the Leafs. This is what the hype should be regarding Gauthier. Everything else is just irrelevant.

 

[Whileee]

Here's an interesting comparison... Adam Lowry.

This year he's blossomed as a very good 3rd line C (he's centering the 2nd line now, with Little injured). His possession stats have been excellent all year. He's chipped in with some offense.

In Junior, Lowry was well over a point/game player, by far the top scorer on his team in his draft+2 year, and won the WHL player of the year. He still projects as a very solid defensive C on the 3rd line.

 

[TheGroceryStick]

I still see a quality 3rd line C , PK specialist and minute muncher at the end of games.

He has always been raw with untapped potential.

Similar to Kulemin, can he step outside of the "hard-worker" moniker and develop into a key piece of the teams future? Or will he blend in as a guy that doesn't hurt, nor help the team? IMO that is what I see with him at this point, a regular player with some potential. It's up to him if he wants to put in the extra effort to be more than your regular, big, solid draw man, who can kill penalties.

 

[Semantics]

He's not a goal scorer, but rather a defensive Center. This is not a player you evaluate by point totals and will most definitely make the NHL. He is elite at the defensive end of the ice.

So what's he going to do at the NHL level after defending in such an elite fashion and gaining puck possession? Give it right back to the other team and line change, Jay McClement style? I thought the goal for the Leafs was to STOP playing without the puck all the time.

Sounds like he's a PK specialist and nothing more. You can find those in August in the bargain bin for $1M/year.

 

[Black Noise]

So what's he going to do at the NHL level after defending in such an elite fashion and gaining puck possession? Give it right back to the other team and line change, Jay McClement style? I thought the goal for the Leafs was to STOP playing without the puck all the time.

Sounds like he's a PK specialist and nothing more. You can find those in August in the bargain bin for $1M/year.

Ya kind of seems of a waste of a 1st rounder especially when you had guys like Burakovsky picked after him.

 

[WilliamNylander]

David Steckel 2.0

Wish we could've brought in Shannahan and Hunter a year earlier.

Might turn into a good 3C but he's never the kind of player you want in the 1st round

 

[Black Noise]

David Steckel 2.0

Wish we could've brought in Shannahan and Hunter a year earlier.

Might turn into a good 3C but he's never the kind of player you want in the 1st round

Steckel actually put up a good amount of points in the AHL, he put up 61 points in 71 games. Don't know why he never turned out to anything more then a 15 point fringe NHLer. Seems like Washington never gave him the opportunity to move up in the roster.

 

[Bill Waters*]

Excellent pick. Always like the guy. Can't wait to see him in the NHL, a step or two behind, chasing his man on the PK.

 

[Semantics]

Steckel actually put up a good amount of points in the AHL, he put up 61 points in 71 games. Don't know why he never turned out to anything more then a 15 point fringe NHLer. Seems like Washington never gave him the opportunity to move up in the roster.

They should never have rushed him to the NHL as a 24 year old after that AHL season. That ruined him. Detroit would have kept him in the AHL until he was 27 and he would have become a 1st line center.

 

[Apotheosis]

David Steckel 2.0

Wish we could've brought in Shannahan and Hunter a year earlier.

Might turn into a good 3C but he's never the kind of player you want in the 1st round

Not every 1st round pick you have is going to be a top 6 guy. You have to fill out your bottom 6 with quality pieces too. Gauthier looks perfectly fine with what he's doing. He projects to be amazing at face-offs, great at possession, great defensively, so that sets up a perfect shutdown line with him and potentially Leipsic, who's a hound himself. I love the pick personally, since now we can focus on drafting purely for our top 6 and finding someone to pair with Rielly.

 

[VanJack]

Not even a PPG player in his final Jr. season playing on the best team in the Q.. looks bad.

Another bust in the Leafs pipeline....when a guy is cast as a 'defensive centre' in junior, the warning bells go off for me...don't think he has the wheels to be an NHL regular.....two or three years in the AHL then off to Europe imo.

 

[WilliamNylander]

Not every 1st round pick you have is going to be a top 6 guy. You have to fill out your bottom 6 with quality pieces too. Gauthier looks perfectly fine with what he's doing. He projects to be amazing at face-offs, great at possession, great defensively, so that sets up a perfect shutdown line with him and potentially Leipsic, who's a hound himself. I love the pick personally, since now we can focus on drafting purely for our top 6 and finding someone to pair with Rielly.

You never draft players like him in the first round.

You draft the high skill players like Mantha, Burkakovsky, Zadorov, Theodore, Shinkaruk, Poirer, etc.

Gauthier type players would be a good 3rd round/great 4th round pick. Drafting a 3rd line ceiling guy with a mid first is just terrible management and one of the reasons why the Leafs have sucked for so long.

Lets say he hits his ceiling and becomes a 3C...so what? You can pick up decent 3/4Cs for late picks or in free agency anyways. Would also like to know how he's "great at possession"?

 

[Semantics]

Not every 1st round pick you have is going to be a top 6 guy.

Using that logic we should just trade our 1st round pick (if not top 10) for a Daniel Winnik type every year.

 

[The Podium]

You never draft players like him in the first round.

You draft the high skill players like Mantha, Burkakovsky, Zadorov, Theodore, Shinkaruk, Poirer, etc.

Gauthier type players would be a good 3rd round/great 4th round pick. Drafting a 3rd line ceiling guy with a mid first is just terrible management and one of the reasons why the Leafs have sucked for so long.

Lets say he hits his ceiling and becomes a 3C...so what? You can pick up decent 3/4Cs for late picks or in free agency anyways. Would also like to know how he's "great at possession"?

From the Leafs point of view, they probably saw how effective Bergeron was in that playoff series and decided to try and draft their own. Obviously it didn't work out, I knew they were going to pick him and he was the last player I wanted in that spot.

Too late now, he can still top out as an effective 3rd/4th line C, which don't get me wrong is very important to a championship team just not highly valued or difficult to acquire.

Should of went with Burakovsky or Theodore