C Connor McDavid - Erie Otters, OHL (2015 Draft) VI

[Sonic Disturbance]

Tavares was NOT close to Crosby as a prospect. He was possibly near that level when he scored 72 goals, but his progression staggered after that. I posted the article below in another thread before, it shows that around the time of late 2007 (just after Tavares had his amazing 72-goal season), 7 out of 10 scouts would've taken Stamkos 1st overall over Tavares IF he was available for the 2008 draft. He was even ranked behind Doughty by 2 out of 10 scouts. Tavares' barely missed the cut-off date for the 2008 draft by five days.

John Tavares of the Oshawa Generals would like nothing more than to be eligible for this year's draft, but he was born five days too late, according to existing rules. So while Tavares' agent Bryan Deasley continues to lobby the NHL in what would appear to be a longshot effort to make Tavares eligible for 2008 instead of 2009, here's a question we put to the scouts after they ranked the 2008 prospects:

"If John Tavares were eligible for the 2008 draft and it was being held on Saturday, where would he rank on the lists they just submitted?"

The strong consensus is at No. 2, just behind Sarnia sniper Steven Stamkos. Tavares accumulated 91 voting points. Stamkos had 100; and Drew Doughty 88.

Three scouts did say they would take Tavares first overall.

"You can't look past 72 goals as a 16 year old," one scout said. "He's only going to get better. He's so focused. He is so determined to score goals and make goals happen that he won't be denied."

But five scouts pegged him at No. 2 and two others ranked him at No. 3. So seven of 10 scouts surveyed, as of today, would take Stamkos over Tavares.

It wouldn't be fair to say scouts are concerned that Tavares' skating, deemed to be average at this point, will prevent him from becoming a big-time NHL scorer, but compared directly to the dynamic skating of Stamkos, the scouts who slotted Tavares at No. 2 did say it has to be a factor.

"His skating is just okay," one scout said. "But he's still a special player. The thing is, Stamkos is dynamic. His upside is huge. He has a lot of Steve Yzerman and Bryan Trottier qualities."

In his first OHL season, as a 16-year-old, Stamkos finished with 42 goals and 92 points in 63 games. Those are great numbers but pale beside the prolific scoring ability of Tavares.

In Tavares first OHL season, as a 15-year-old, he had 45 goals and 77 points in 65 games. Last season, Tavares scored 72 goals and 134 points in 67 games, eclipsing Wayne Gretzky's OHL record for most goals by a 16-year-old.

Worth noting is that even though Stamkos is eligible for this year's draft and Tavares currently is not, they are both the same age, born in the same year, separated by about seven months. Stamkos was born on Feb. 7, 1990. Tavares on Sept. 20, 1990.

"When you talk about the difference between Stamkos and Tavares," one scout said, "you could be talking the difference between Jean Beliveau and Phil Esposito. It certainly looks like they both have what it takes to be great players."

That said, there were two scouts who said, at this moment in time, they would take Stamkos and Doughty ahead of Tavares if Tavares was successful in being included in this year's draft.

"I am sure he's going to get stronger and his skating will improve, but if the draft was on Saturday, I would at this point have to take Stamkos or Doughty ahead of (Tavares) based on what I've seen of them all so far," the scout said. "Could that be different by June of 08? Sure, it could. Everything could be different for a lot of players by then."

And in that vein, for all the talk about how high Tavares would go in the 2008 draft if he were eligible, scouts cautioned Tavares may still be challenged for No. 1 in 2009 by 6-foot-5 Swedish defenceman Viktor Hedman, dubbed by some as the "Swedish Chris Pronger," a big, mobile blueliner who is also drawing favorable comparisons to 2006 No. 1 overall pick Erik Johnson of the St. Louis Blues. Some scouts also believe big defenceman Jared Cowan of the Spokane Chiefs, the first player taken in the WHL bantam draft, could also be a factor in 2009.

As for whether there is any chance of Tavares actually being declared eligible for this year's draft, it doesn't look as though it's likely or imminent. Tavares' agent Deasley has conferred with both the NHL and NHL Players' Association, but the league's position, at this point, is it doesn't see any strong impetus to change the rules or grant any exceptions.


Courtesy Bob McKenzie

Heading into the 2009 draft, Tavares was actually behind Hedman to start the season on most lists. It was not until the WJC that he became the #1 pick on most mock-drafts, but even then, it was not guaranteed that he was going to go first. The main concerns with Tavares is that his numbers actually went down statistically after that crazy 72-goal year and the fact that he was a below-average skater (he's improved now however) at the time. Furthermore, he was not as physically powerful as Crosby as a prospect and not as good defensively either. McDavid is the #1 on EVERY mock-draft essentially since he first broke into the OHL. That speaks volumes as Eichel just won the Hobey Baker as a rookie. Too many people just look at big stats and assume things. PPG is important, but scouts are concerned with the player's tools that will allow him to translate his game to the next level. That's why Jordan Staal went #2 despite having unimpressive junior stats. Corey Locke scored 150+ points and only went in the 4th round. Yes, he was an overager, but you have other overagers like Tanner Pearson with far less impressive stats who went in the the 1st. Scouts saw definite holes' in Tavares' game.

In terms of hype: Crosby > McDavid > Tavares.

 

[McMatthews]

It's nice to have the next hockey supergod come from the Toronto area.

 

[sessiroth]

It's nice to have the next hockey supergod come from the Toronto area.

Newmarket On isn't Toronto. I know cause I was raised in toronto and have lived in newmarket the last 5 years.

 

[Patmac40]

Newmarket On isn't Toronto. I know cause I was raised in toronto and have lived in newmarket the last 5 years.

Well it's part of the GTA which is probably what they were referring to.

 

[McMatthews]

Newmarket On isn't Toronto. I know cause I was raised in toronto and have lived in newmarket the last 5 years.

Newmarket, Markham, Richmond Hill, Aurora, etc. are all in the Toronto area.

 

[TheGroceryStick]

Newmarket On isn't Toronto. I know cause I was raised in toronto and have lived in newmarket the last 5 years.

Bostonian's are coining Eichel and Hanifin as hometown boys.

Heck if that is the pretense, we can probably name everyone from Hamilton/Kitchener/Barrie/Oshawa too.

 

[Patmac40]

Bostonian's are coining Eichel and Hanifin as hometown boys.

Heck if that is the pretense, we can probably name everyone from Hamilton/Kitchener/Barrie/Oshawa too.

Well to be fair, they would've grown up like 25 mins outside of downtown Boston. It's not like they grew up in Amherst or something.

And Newmarket is maybe a half-hour outside of downtown Toronto and is part of the GTA, not an hour or more away like Hamilton, etc.

 

[jigglysquishy]

If McDavid didn't get injured and scored 150-160 points idk if people would be so quick to dismiss McDavids junior career...

If McDavid hit 160 points he would have had 34 more points than any other non-teammate. If you consider Marner elite than that number jumps to 48.

Crosby had 60 points more than any non-linemate. He was also by far the best player in the CHL at 16. McDavid might have been top 10, but certainly not number one.

Crosby as a prospect was better than any player in hockey history besides Wayne Gretzky. And even there, Gretzky did not win the OHL scoring title or CHL player of the year at 16. Crosby did (with Q).

You could certainly make an argument that Crosby had the greatest career in hockey history pre-18th birthday.

 

[Yog S'loth]

Crosby as a prospect was better than any player in hockey history besides Wayne Gretzky.

You must be too young to remember Mario Lemieux and Eric Lindros.

Both those guys had more hype than Crosby at the time.

 

[Paxon]

If McDavid hit 160 points he would have had 34 more points than any other non-teammate. If you consider Marner elite than that number jumps to 48.

Crosby had 60 points more than any non-linemate. He was also by far the best player in the CHL at 16. McDavid might have been top 10, but certainly not number one.

Crosby as a prospect was better than any player in hockey history besides Wayne Gretzky. And even there, Gretzky did not win the OHL scoring title or CHL player of the year at 16. Crosby did (with Q).

You could certainly make an argument that Crosby had the greatest career in hockey history pre-18th birthday.

 

[sabrebuild]

Straight up super hero

 

[sessiroth]

Well to be fair, they would've grown up like 25 mins outside of downtown Boston. It's not like they grew up in Amherst or something.

And Newmarket is maybe a half-hour outside of downtown Toronto and is part of the GTA, not an hour or more away like Hamilton, etc.

Wrong. it's an hour drive via hwy (fastest way)

And I don't consider Newmarket GTA. Richmond hill/vagh/scar/mark sure. Newmarket is very close to simcoe county, and im pretty sure he grew up in holland landing which is pretty much almost bradford.

EDIT: Dont get me wrong, he's a home grown talent who grew up a leafs fan but there's an awful a lot of hab fans up here as well.

 

[Halfy]

If McDavid hit 160 points he would have had 34 more points than any other non-teammate. If you consider Marner elite than that number jumps to 48.

Crosby had 60 points more than any non-linemate. He was also by far the best player in the CHL at 16. McDavid might have been top 10, but certainly not number one.

Crosby as a prospect was better than any player in hockey history besides Wayne Gretzky. And even there, Gretzky did not win the OHL scoring title or CHL player of the year at 16. Crosby did (with Q).

You could certainly make an argument that Crosby had the greatest career in hockey history pre-18th birthday.

OHL >>>>>> QMJHL since forever (in terms of NHL level prospects)

 

[daver]

OHL >>>>>> QMJHL since forever (in terms of NHL level prospects)

There is no reason to believe Crosby would not have dominated the OHL as much as he did the Q.

 

[dwanmaster*]

Imagine if Mcdavid goes to Boston, Columbus, Philly, Florida, LA, San Jose, Colorado or Dallas. That team would be instantly stacked

 

[Shwaguy*]

Only 2 more days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well. I mean. We all know he's going to Toronto anyways.

 

[Semantics]

Newmarket On isn't Toronto. I know cause I was raised in toronto and have lived in newmarket the last 5 years.

Of course it is. Newmarket is in Toronto's Census Metropolitan Area, which is the most restrictive way in which the Toronto metro area is defined. The GTA, the GTHA, the Golden Horseshoe, etc. all include Newmarket.

In fact if Toronto was in the US, the standard definition of its "metro area" would be the greater golden horseshoe area (pop 9+ mil), which extends more than twice as far from the core as Newmarket. Newmarket is Toronto area. So are Hamilton and Oshawa.

 

[Semantics]

You must be too young to remember Mario Lemieux and Eric Lindros.

Both those guys had more hype than Crosby at the time.

Lindros had the hype because everyone was drooling over his size, because he grew up in Southern Ontario and played junior in the Toronto area, and because he created a lot of controversy by refusing to play for the Soo.

But we aren't talking about hype. We're talking about how good they actually played. And Lindros' draft year season was not as impressive as Crosby's. Crosby's was flat out better statistically, and in a lower scoring era, plus Lindros was 6 months older.

You might have a case for Lemieux though, his junior stats were high enough that maybe they are better than Crosby's even era adjusted. Lemieux was almost a full year older than Crosby though. He turned 18 at the start of his draft year, Crosby turned 17 two months before the start of his.

Accounting for age, I think Crosby's draft year was easily more impressive than those two.

 

[McMatthews]

Wrong. it's an hour drive via hwy (fastest way)

And I don't consider Newmarket GTA. Richmond hill/vagh/scar/mark sure. Newmarket is very close to simcoe county, and im pretty sure he grew up in holland landing which is pretty much almost bradford.

EDIT: Dont get me wrong, he's a home grown talent who grew up a leafs fan but there's an awful a lot of hab fans up here as well.

If your TV can pick up CP24, you're in the Toronto area.

McDavid is from the Bathurst and Mulock area.

Marner is from the Dufferin and Rutherford area.

Strome is from the QEW and Winston Churchill area.

All three are studs.

 

[CBJx614]

I cant wait for all of Toronto to riot when Columbus wins the lottery

 

[McMatthews]

I cant wait for all of Toronto to riot when Columbus wins the lottery

Better Columbus than a place like LA.

He might actually stick around if he goes to LA.

 

[jigglysquishy]

The hype for Lemieux and Lindros were higher than Crosby, but Crosby was the better prospect.

Crosby in his draft-1 was the best player in the CHL. Lemieux, despite being 10 months older in his draft-1 year, was not. He was still a top 5 player, but not the best player in the league. Crosby is the only player in CHL history to win back-to-back player of the year before being drafted.

Tavares did it at 16, but not 17. Lemieux did it at 17, but not 16. Gretzky was only in the league at 16, but didn't do it.

Crosby's junior dominance in both his pre-draft years has never been replicated.

 

[Paxon]

The hype for Lemieux and Lindros were higher than Crosby, but Crosby was the better prospect.

Crosby in his draft-1 was the best player in the CHL. Lemieux, despite being 10 months older in his draft-1 year, was not. He was still a top 5 player, but not the best player in the league. Crosby is the only player in CHL history to win back-to-back player of the year before being drafted.

Tavares did it at 16, but not 17. Lemieux did it at 17, but not 16. Gretzky was only in the league at 16, but didn't do it.

Crosby's junior dominance in both his pre-draft years has never been replicated.

That in no way proves Crosby was a better prospect than Lemieux.

 

[sabrebuild]

The hype for Lemieux and Lindros were higher than Crosby, but Crosby was the better prospect.

Crosby in his draft-1 was the best player in the CHL. Lemieux, despite being 10 months older in his draft-1 year, was not. He was still a top 5 player, but not the best player in the league. Crosby is the only player in CHL history to win back-to-back player of the year before being drafted.

Tavares did it at 16, but not 17. Lemieux did it at 17, but not 16. Gretzky was only in the league at 16, but didn't do it.

Crosby's junior dominance in both his pre-draft years has never been replicated.

Who was better than Lemieux in his draft year? As I recall he was breaking Guy LaFleur records his draft eligible season and generally dominating.

 

[12345678910]

If McDavid hit 160 points he would have had 34 more points than any other non-teammate. If you consider Marner elite than that number jumps to 48.

Crosby had 60 points more than any non-linemate. He was also by far the best player in the CHL at 16. McDavid might have been top 10, but certainly not number one.

Crosby as a prospect was better than any player in hockey history besides Wayne Gretzky. And even there, Gretzky did not win the OHL scoring title or CHL player of the year at 16. Crosby did (with Q).

You could certainly make an argument that Crosby had the greatest career in hockey history pre-18th birthday.

Go look at Mario's numbers in Jr. and get back to me.