C Connor McDavid - Erie Otters, OHL (2015 Draft) V

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Nothing personal but you being "fairly confident" about something doesn't make it so. His memorial cup numbers were impressive, but a 4 game sample against the OHL doesn't convince me much about what his production as a whole would be.

Without even picking a side or saying anything about the players.... I stand by my stance that being .15 higher in points per game in a league with a lower competition level 10 years earlier isn't enough to tell me a player is "a step above".

As it has already been mentioned, the OHL now is a higher scoring league than the Q back in 2004. You can make the argument that the OHL now is a more competitive league than the Q back then, but there really isn't too much evidence to support that claim. But there is evidence to support the fact that the Q was the lower scoring league, and there were less points to be had.

 

[umwoz]

As it has already been mentioned, the OHL now is a higher scoring league than the Q back in 2004. You can make the argument that the OHL now is a more competitive league than the Q back then, but there really isn't too much evidence to support that claim. But there is evidence to support the fact that the Q was the lower scoring league, and there were less points to be had.

Producing more NHL draftees is not a sign of a higher quality of competition?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Producing more NHL draftees is not a sign of a higher quality of competition?

How do we know that the currently drafted players playing in the OHL in 2014/2015 will turn out to be NHL'ers any more than the guys that were drafted out of the Q in 2004/2005?

These were some of the names playing in the league at the time. Some of them turned out ok, some of them not. But they were all either drafted or made it to the NHL.

Brassard
Letang
Krejci
Halak
Radulov
Crawford
J Bernier
Latendresse
Desharnais
Pouliot
Sheppard
S Bernier
Sersen
Picard
Bourret
Denny
Zagrapan
Hennessy
Roussin
Lapierre

In 10 years, we might look back at a bunch of the drafted OHL talent and find a similar looking list.

 

[umwoz]

How do we know that the currently drafted players playing in the OHL in 2014/2015 will turn out to be NHL'ers any more than the guys that were drafted out of the Q in 2004/2005?

These were some of the names playing in the league at the time. Some of them turned out ok, some of them not. But they were all either drafted or made it to the NHL.
.
.
.
In 10 years, we might look back at a bunch of the drafted OHL talent and find a similar looking list.

I didn't express nor do I have any interest in how they(the competition vs McDavid or Crosby) turn out in the NHL, that doesn't mean they were worse or better as a junior. I'm talking about # of players drafted being correlated to the quality of competition in junior. The occurrence of junior players having great junior careers and lackluster NHL careers isn't uncommon. You don't have to look very far to see that.

Again, going back to the original statement.... .15 higher in points per game in a league with a lower competition level 10 years earlier isn't enough to tell me a player is "a step above". It's a tiny difference, lower competition level in a year where McDavid broke his hand.

Not saying McDavid is a better or worse prospect, but to call a player a step above there should be some definitive evidence.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I didn't express nor do I have any interest in how they(the competition vs McDavid or Crosby) turn out in the NHL, that doesn't mean they were worse or better as a junior. I'm talking about # of players drafted being correlated to the quality of competition in junior. The occurrence of junior players having great junior careers and lackluster NHL careers isn't uncommon. You don't have to look very far to see that.

Again, going back to the original statement.... .15 higher in points per game in a league with a lower competition level 10 years earlier isn't enough to tell me a player is "a step above". It's a tiny difference, lower competition level in a year where McDavid broke his hand.

Not saying McDavid is a better or worse prospect, but to call a player a step above there should be some definitive evidence.

Patrick Kane scored at 2.5 PPG pace in the OHL, and I'd say he was definitely a step below Crosby at 17.

Keep in mind, a .15 PPG difference would be quite large for players near 1 PPG. Its the difference between a 82 point player and a 69 point player over a full NHL season.

 

[umwoz]

Patrick Kane scored at 2.5 PPG pace in the OHL, and I'd say he was definitely a step below Crosby at 17.

Keep in mind, a .15 PPG difference would be quite large for players near 1 PPG. Its the difference between a 82 point player and a 69 point player over a full NHL season.

So you are calling .15 difference significant, yet taking a player that is over a third of that difference worse than McDavid's current pace as comparison?

I think the comparison does hold some weight. As a prospect I would expect McDavid, being of smaller stature and less strength to develop similarly. You are seeing that now with Patrick Kane, a slower development but a still-elite skillset.

 

[Skip2myBordyloo]

I don't think that McDavid will be nearly as good as Crosby out of the gate, but I think with Crosby's concussion and mumps issue's that it isn't out of the realm of possibility McDavid has better peak seasons.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

So you are calling .15 difference significant, yet taking a player that is over a third of that difference worse than McDavid's current pace as comparison?

I think the comparison does hold some weight. As a prospect I would expect McDavid, being of smaller stature and less strength to develop similarly. You are seeing that now with Patrick Kane, a slower development but a still-elite skillset.

Yes, .15 is significant. .05 is probably not (especially if you consider before his last game McD was at 2.49).

I agree with your second statement though, and have made that same argument many a times. Crosby was able to dominate with his generational lower body strength that CMD doesn't possess. CMD has to use quickness and hands a lot more so than Crosby did, who could very easily bulldog his way to the net in the Q (and later in the NHL lol).

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I don't think that McDavid will be nearly as good as Crosby out of the gate, but I think with Crosby's concussion and mumps issue's that it isn't out of the realm of possibility McDavid has better peak seasons.

Maybe if you era-adjust those totals. But the way the league is going now, where clutching and grabbing is becoming more common and the refs aren't giving teams many PPs anymore, I can't see McDavid's point totals surpassing Crosby's during Crosby's "peak" seasons simply because Crosby's peak years will be (unless things change) much more high scoring than what McDavid will face when he enters the league.

 

[Paxon]

Maybe if you era-adjust those totals. But the way the league is going now, where clutching and grabbing is becoming more common and the refs aren't giving teams many PPs anymore, I can't see McDavid's point totals surpassing Crosby's during Crosby's "peak" seasons simply because Crosby's peak years will be (unless things change) much more high scoring than what McDavid will face when he enters the league.

You always have to adjust for era in some way otherwise there's just not much point in comparing performances. If someone were to bring up someone's point totals from '05-'06 and compare them directly to this season's, it's just kind of senseless.

It should be noted that from '10-11 through '12-13 Crosby was actually bettering the PGP pace from his 120 point sophomore season in '06-'07. Each of those three seasons represented a small sample size due to injuries and lockout, but it's still something to keep in mind beyond totals. I have an extremely hard time seeing McDavid putting up 1.6+ PPG, though who knows for certain if Crosby would have held that for 82 games.

 

[daver]

I wouldn't say step above at all.

Different teams and different circumstances.

Rimouski had 3 prolific scorers on their team, as opposed to just 2 on Erie. There is also McDavid's injury to factor in and the fact that they actually play in a different 'era', despite being relatively close in age.

Even a rusty McDavid put up better numbers in the same year of development than Crosby at the WJC.

I'm not going to say one player is above the other, I think they're in the same tier of talent at the same age.

You realize that there was a reason they were prolific right?

McDavid's has been arguably close to Crosby's full season level for 36 games this year after being not very close last year. Bit of a stretch to say he is in the same tier from a statistical perspective.

 

[daver]

Again, going back to the original statement.... .15 higher in points per game in a league with a lower competition level 10 years earlier isn't enough to tell me a player is "a step above". It's a tiny difference, lower competition level in a year where McDavid broke his hand.

How can you definitively say it was lower competition. The 3 best OHL prospects Tavares, Stamkos and Kane since Crosby have not done anything to indicate they are close to Crosby in the NHL despite putting up great numbers in juniors, Tavares and Kane especially.

I would say the way things have turned out that there is no reason to think Crosby would not be as dominant in today's OHL as he was in the Q ten years ago.

 

[Skip2myBordyloo]

McDavid with 2 goals in the first 10 minutes today.

 

[Fourier]

Patrick Kane scored at 2.5 PPG pace in the OHL, and I'd say he was definitely a step below Crosby at 17.

Keep in mind, a .15 PPG difference would be quite large for players near 1 PPG. Its the difference between a 82 point player and a 69 point player over a full NHL season.

I saw a lot of both players in the OHL. To my admittedly untrained eye McDavid is the best junior I have seen in the league in the 25+ years I have lived in Ontario with the possible exception of Eric Lindros who was just ridiculously dominant physically. Watching McDavid from row 6 when he was a 16 year old was an eye opener. Even then I felt he was the best junior prospect I'd ever seen live and that includes Kane, Stamkos, and Tavares.

 

[duul]

After 2 periods tonight, McDavid with 2g,1 a.

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

 

[Skip2myBordyloo]

Hard to believe that's his first Hat trick in the OHL.

 

[jigglysquishy]

96 on the year. 5th in scoring. 2.59 PPG.

For all the talk of him dropping off he's had 27 points in his last 10 games. 16 points in his last 5.

Edit: Now 98 on the year. Tied for 4th in scoring. 2.65 PG. 29 points in last 10. 18 in last 5. One point back of his OHL career high, but in 29 less games. People criticize his goal scoring, but he's at effectively a GPG.

 

[Lehkonen4Calder]

96 on the year. 5th in scoring. 2.59 PPG.

For all the talk of him dropping off he's had 27 points in his last 10 games. 16 points in his last 5.

If marner hit a little slump, i can see Mcdavid win the scoring tittle

 

[tze]

6+5 in his last two.

 

[ProspectsSTC]

4 Goals, 2 Assists. What a beast.

 

[landy92mack29]

4 Goals, 2 Assists. What a beast.

And the game isn't over yet

 

[couture23]

Lottery day please hurry

 

[AD1066]

I'm already excited for next season, it'll be much easier to see him play.

 

[Lehkonen4Calder]

36 goals in 37 games not bad for someone who's not a great finisher?