C Connor Bedard - Regina Pats, WHL (2023 Draft) Part 5

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Perfect. Now you're in a corner you can't get out of. Which one of these 2 players are generational and which one not. You can only pick 1:
Gretzky or Mario?

EDIT: Not sure why fly4puckguy's post ended up there. I fail at internet again. That's old school i guess lol

Gretzky ~80s
Mario ~90s
Crosby ~2005-15
McDavid ~2015-2025

 

[authentic]

If he plays a full season he’ll score 30 goals with ease, and should have a legit shot at 40. I think Bedard is a similar goal scoring talent to Matthews, who scored 40 as a D+1 rookie. Plus goal scoring is up 14% since 2016/17, 40 goals then is like 46 today.

Of course injuries can derail any season, but if he’s healthy, he’s gonna put up some filthy rookie numbers.

40 goals then is more like 50 today. 40 was tied for 2nd in goals, that season, we have like 10 players closing in on 40 goals now with over a quarter of the season left.

44 was tops in the NHL and the only player that scored 50 from 2013-16 was Ovechkin.

To your point I agree that he scores likely around 40 in a full season, probably close to 90 points.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Gretzky ~80s
Mario ~90s
Crosby ~2005-15
McDavid ~2015-2025

Wayne Gretzky- Born Jan 26 1961
Mario Lemieux- Born Oct 5 1965
Less than 5 years apart. That is the same generation
Pick one

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Inflating a height from 6'0" to 6'2" is one thing. From 5'8" to 5'10' is another. 5'10" is a small NHLer. 5'8" is rare. There couldn't be more than ten players in the NHL under 5'9". I'm not saying it is a dealbreaker for him, I'm just saying it's going to be tough to be a generational player at that height.

Here's the thing: 5'8" players aren't rare because most of them have their heights inflated to 5'10" lmao.

 

[nergish]

Bedard is some kind of mix of Kane/Marner & Stamkos.

Brayden Point's hockey IQ and penchant for big plays + Cole Caufield's raw offensive tools.
Both of their lack of size.

Combined with Steve Yzerman's poise, on-ice leadership, smarts, and ability to play bigger than his listed size.


I don't believe he has the same dynamic ability as P. Kane or Marner, but he's not that far off... he just does things his own way. He plays with the kind of confidence that he can pull off plays that should really be outside of his skillset.

 

[CloutierForVezina]

I think it went even further when he scored 72 goals in his second year. I seem to recall he was labelled the next one and generational by the Media and even Gretzky. I was a bit stunned to see people here say he wasn't considered generational. The OHL obviously thought so as you mentioned.

Gretzky was right when he said, 'that's a long time to play junior hockey.' Because Tavares in the following years, was exposed, his skating skating and his work ethic were questioned. A perfect example of anointing someone a generational talent way to early.

The hype for Tavares was off the charts after his 72 goal season, but it died down considerably when he stagnated / regressed over his last two pre-draft seasons. By the time he was drafted he was certainly not considered anything close to a generational talent. He was seen a can't miss 1st line forward, but not a superstar.

Tavares is such a weird name to bring up because his 72 goal season was such a huge outlier to the rest of his junior career and the stagnation gave a lot of cause for concern. He's not an example of someone who put up generational numbers and disappointed, he's an example of someone who had a singular unbelievable CHL season and failed to replicate it.

Bedard has gotten better every year exactly as you would hope/expect.

 

[Anardil]

are you sure? i sat down at the Yost (which is a hockey cathedral btw, stunning rink) in section 21 and saw him playing for the Wolverines

Look who's back!!!

Just curious, asking for a friend... what did you think of Fantilli's WJC performance for the US?

 

[Anardil]

Wayne Gretzky- Born Jan 26 1961
Mario Lemieux- Born Oct 5 1965
Less than 5 years apart. That is the same generation
Pick one

It is possible to have more than one generational player in the league at the same time, no?

I mean, you can't argue that Wayne and Mario defined hockey in the '80s and '90s.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Wayne Gretzky- Born Jan 26 1961
Mario Lemieux- Born Oct 5 1965
Less than 5 years apart. That is the same generation
Pick one

Gretzky is a baby boomer
Lemieux is a Gen X'er

Those are different generations.

Doesn't matter though. They're pretty much equal. Ovechkin and Crosby are not. Heck, I'd take prime Malkin over Ovechkin.

 

[daver]

Wayne Gretzky- Born Jan 26 1961
Mario Lemieux- Born Oct 5 1965
Less than 5 years apart. That is the same generation
Pick one

It is possible to have more than one generational player in the league at the same time, no?

I mean, you can't argue that Wayne and Mario defined hockey in the '80s and '90s.

The issue in this thread isn't a semantics debate over "generational", it is the mental gymnastics being played by one poster who wants to keep Bedard from being placed above recent #1 picks from a certain country.

 

[Deleted member 339941]

 

[cupface52]

Gretzky is a baby boomer
Lemieux is a Gen X'er

Those are different generations.

Doesn't matter though. They're pretty much equal. Ovechkin and Crosby are not. Heck, I'd take prime Malkin over Ovechkin.

I must say the best part of this thread is waiting to see what sort of crazy mental gymnastics you'll pull off next.



'07-'10 peak Ovechkin beats out either Crosby or Malkin at their best.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

I must say the best part of this thread is waiting to see what sort of crazy mental gymnastics you'll pull off next.

'07-'10 peak Ovechkin beats out either Crosby or Malkin at their best.

Agreed, 100%

 

[DeletedUser539]

are you sure? i sat down at the Yost (which is a hockey cathedral btw, stunning rink) in section 21 and saw him playing for the Wolverines

Canadians are allowed to attend usa colleges and play for them

 

[Dion TheFluff]

Gretzky ~80s
Mario ~90s
Crosby ~2005-15
McDavid ~2015-2025

so Lemieux wasn't generational when he scored 85 goals and 199 points in 1989?

pretty silly argument IMO. I think generational is defined by how far above u are from the rest of your peers even if there is another generational player that is close to u.

 

[Crede777]

I must say the best part of this thread is waiting to see what sort of crazy mental gymnastics you'll pull off next.



'07-'10 peak Ovechkin beats out either Crosby or Malkin at their best.

A hockey "generation" doesn't equate to what we would classically label as a "generation" in the sense of Baby Boomers vs Gen-X vs Millenials.

I would argue that a hockey generation is closer to just a decade. For Gretzky and Lemieux, that means Gretzky was generational for the 80's while Lemieux was generational for the 90's. Similarly, Crosby was generational from about 05-15 while McDavid has been generational since 2015.

For Ovechkin, I think additional semantics are at play. He's a generational goal scorer similar to Brett Hull while Crosby more or less is the generational NHL player for that duration.

 

[daver]

Some interesting data from another thread here:

Connor Bedard 2022/2023 season comparing to other great juniors seasons

Bedard is playing his own league, above others. For now he has 111 points on only 43 games. Lots of goals (52) with 8 GWG and 5 SHG goals. Second best player on Regina roster has only 69 points what is actually a -42 difference. For compare, top season of others great: McDavid 47 44 76...

forums.hfboards.com

Can we please keep the chatter to how well he compares with other GOAT prospects and not on a "generational" semantics exercise.

He clearly stands out as having a Top 5 17-year-old season in the past 50 years.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

so Lemieux wasn't generational when he scored 85 goals and 199 points in 1989?

pretty silly argument IMO. I think generational is defined by how far above u are from the rest of your peers even if there is another generational player that is close to u.

Do you know what a tilda means?

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Do you know what a tilda means?

Yeah she was the girl in that Roald Dahl book

 

[Gold Standard]

expecting another big game tonight.
2+2 4pts. sounds about right.

 

[wetcoast]

The Q was VERY soft at the time. If you contextualize it by league-strength, Bedard is way ahead.

Fair enough and while I think Bedard will have a great career at the end of the day he will still be a bit behind Crosby on the all time list but there is no shame in that at all.

 

[wetcoast]

First of all, I didn't say Bedard's shot is unproven. I said Matthews's was proven vs pros unlike Bedard's, which simply is a factual statement.

Second, skating isn't the same thing as a shot. Skating is skating, whether it's in NHL or on an outdoor public ice. A shot always has two participants, and it's very difficult to gauge how much trouble NHL goaltenders will have reading a shot, for example, before seeing the player shooting against NHL goaltenders.

The difference is pretty obvious, which is why it's pretty disingenuous of you to compare skating and shot like that.

You are really doubling down on a bad take the only reason that Bedard's shot isn't "proven" in the Swiss league is that he hasn't played there, neither has McDavid so he is unproven there as well that's how much sense your posts makes.

 

[Bfan14]

I don’t think production will ever be a fair barometer for a player like Bedard against Crosby. Sid’s overall impact on the game, even at that age, was differentiating. He was a hound in the corners and a defensive stalwart before he entered the league. Bedard is the best prospect since Ovechkin when it comes to putting the puck in the net. He’s not better than Sid was overall in my opinion.

Crosby was not a defensive stalwart in any way shape or form when he was younger

He was absolutely a puck hound in the offensive zone though

 

[Bfan14]

Firstly, Crosby had 40g 93p in his final 27gp post WJC. That's 3.44ppg. Bedard has an impressive 46p in 15gp since the WJC, a 3.07 ppg pace. So he would need 47p in his next 12gp to match that pace (3.92 ppg). Since they have 14 games remaining, he'd need 55p in his last 14gp to finish with the same. Considering he's been shooting at nearly 24% since the WJC, I think it's probably unlikely he gets much hotter than he's already been. And for reference, Crosby had 50p in his first 15gp back from the WJC.

But secondly, and most importantly: As I have explained several times, production is a disqualifying factor for generational status, not a qualifying one. Bedard's numbers may be generational, but there's more to it than that. If it were based on numbers alone this player evaluation thing would be pretty easy.

Unfortunately, Bedard lacks the key physical attributes of truly generational players that allow them the ability to create time and space for themselves against tighter checking opponents. Crosby's strength/balance/puck protection, McDavid's skating, Lemieux's size/reach.

It's the same reason why Nico Hischier was considered a better prospect from the Q than the more productive Jordan Dumais. Dumais' is an elite junior scorer, and certainly has potential, but there are some serious question marks about his lack of size/strength combined with his weaker skating.

Bedard is a good skater and is well built, but he's probably never going to be a burner and may never reach 5'10. But there just aren't a ton of top line centers under 5'10 who aren't the best skater on the ice during any given shift. He's physically/athletically very similar to Brad Marchand, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him end up as a winger. I don't think his size and skating are going to prevent him from becoming a franchise player, but I do think they could prevent him from being generational player.

He does possess elite IQ & processing, which are really helpful in overcoming some of those concerns, but they're a tier below that of Crosby & Gretzky, and more similar to guys like McDavid IMO. And even with his generational IQ, I think Gretzky would "struggle" to really separate himself from today's elite offensive players because things are so much tighter and he lacked elite physical tools necessary to create time and space (he'd still be an all world offensive player but probably more like a peak Kucherov/Kane/Gaudreau/Marner than a McDavid).

Bedard does have a generational shot though, and I do expect him to be a generational goal scorer. I'd be pretty surprised if he's not 40 goal scorer right off the bat, and I'd expect him to pace for at least 50-60 goal guy at least 5-6 times in his career. These numbers might even prove conservative if we continue to see increases in scoring, or if he gets drafted by a team with an elite playmaker like Columbus.

And since he should be pretty much an instant 40+ goal scorer at 18, may even have a chance to scare 900 career goals if he can stay healthy - if you assume a 20 year career, with a 40g avg for the 10 seasons surrounding his prime (say between ages 18-20 & 31-37) and a 50g avg during his prime (21-30 y/o), that's 900 goals. Seems surprisingly doable with the increase in scoring (there are 6th guys scoring at a 50+ goal pace this year, and a handful more right on the cusp). The key for him will be remaining healthy, which I think is actually pretty doable with his solid build & preference to play the perimeter. He plays in a lot of the same areas as Patrick Kane, and he's had a very healthy career despite several long playoff runs.

You're incorrect, please get your facts straight.

Per the above, Crosby's post WJC PPG was 3.44. Bedard's is 3.07

How are the stats in Bedard's favor?

You guys heard it here first, Gretzky was only as good Johnny Gaudreau.

I think that's all we need to know when seeing this poster try and evaluate and predict Bedards potential

 

[Bfan14]

Why are you directing it at me? I was very clearly quoting the 2.8 that the other poster said. If he was wrong with that number, then it is obviously different.

All that said, I’ve looked up the numbers now. If we’re looking at the whole season, it was 168 points in 62 games = 2.71 PPG for Crosby. Bedard is now at 111 points in 43 games = 2.58 PPG. That’s pretty damn close and both generational.

I also think a lot of your post is meaningless speculation. The way Bedard shoots, reads the play, dangles, passes…it’s simply incredible. I see no legitimate reasons to think he won’t become an all-time great.

He was also much more dominant at the WJC than players like McDavid and Crosby, but I’m sure you have a reason for why that should be disregarded. Throw out the regular season stats, throw out the WJC stats, throw out the eye test of watching his generational shots and hockey IQ each game.

Its also ignoring that Crosby played on hands down the best team in the Q, only behind the legendary London Knights team in the entire NHL.

Bedard plays on a team that is struggling just to make the playoffs