C Connor Bedard - Regina Pats, WHL (2023 Draft) Part 5

[wetcoast]

I went to the game in Regina on Monday vs Lethbridge, and he didn't really dominate. He's not like McDavid who can pick up the puck in his own end and drive through all the opposing players. He's more a quick-strike guy, who hides in the weeds and then BOOM, something happens. A sweet pass or a great shot on net. Ended up with two assists. One a nice primary, and a good secondary that set up the whole play.

We are all aware of this, but it can't be overstated that he is small even by WHL standards. He is going to be tiny next to NHL players. The upside is that he already has an NHL brain and puck handling skills, which will get him big points with decent NHL linemates. But his size will be an issue, no question. He doesn't shy away from physical play, but he will need to have players he can distribute to quickly in the NHL, or he is going to get neutralized. He is listed at 5'10", but there is no way he is 5'10". He might be 5'8", if that. I have not seen a small player as good as him in the WHL since the Pats had Dale Derkatch. If you know that name, kuddos. He was like Theo Fluery before Theo came along. Unfortunately he got drafted by the Oilers in the early 80s and could never crack the lineup. I think he was 5'5", though, so even smaller than Bedard.

Dale Derkatch was also under 150 lbs Bedard has NHL thighs and legs already although coincidentally Dale also played for the Pats but hockey was so much different then in the Dub.

 

[Bfan14]

Patrick Kane
John Tavares

Pat Kane was a kate draftee and would have to be compared to what Bedard would theoretically do next season

Tavares 17yo season was worse than his 16yo season. He never took off the way everyone hoped.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Pat Kane was a kate draftee and would have to be compared to what Bedard would theoretically do next season

Tavares 17yo season was worse than his 16yo season. He never took off the way everyone hoped.

It was still Kane's draft year. I understand he was older but his numbers were still bonkers, and he did it in a much stronger league (2006-07 OHL was loaded).

For the record (and I have said this a few times), I think Bedard is a better prospect than Kane was, and will likely have a better individual career (though might fall short on cup count). He's a Matthews caliber prospect IMO, better than Pat Kane but just tier below the truly game changing generational players.

Agree on Tavares though.

 

[Bfan14]

It was still Kane's draft year. I understand he was older but his numbers were still bonkers, and he did it in a much stronger league (2006-07 OHL was loaded).

For the record (and I have said this a few times), I think Bedard is a better prospect than Kane was, and will likely have a better individual career (though might fall short on cup count). He's a Matthews caliber prospect IMO, better than Pat Kane but just tier below the truly game changing generational players.

Agree on Tavares though.

You can't seriously he disregarding the improvements each player makes with age. How many examples do you need of players playing great at 17 and then absolutely exploding the next year in junior ? Adding in that he played on a top team on the top line in the CHL and its not a comparable

 

[WarriorofTime]

Pat Kane was a kate draftee and would have to be compared to what Bedard would theoretically do next season

Tavares 17yo season was worse than his 16yo season. He never took off the way everyone hoped.

Kane was born in November, Bedard was born in July. So about 8 months apart during their respective draft years, to be precise.

 

[Bfan14]

Kane was born in November, Bedard was born in July. So about 8 months apart during their respective draft years, to be precise.

Yes, and an entire development year ahead.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

You can't seriously he disregarding the improvements each player makes with age. How many examples do you need of players playing great at 17 and then absolutely exploding the next year in junior ? Adding in that he played on a top team on the top line in the CHL and its not a comparable

I'm not disregarding it, but it's all hypothetical. As you just pointed out, Tavares was a guy who didn't show that kind of improvement. Kane was a late bloomer from a physical maturity perspective.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Yes, and an entire development year ahead.

I think you just mean that he'd age into Juniors a year early, but Bedard was exceptional player status (there is no comparable in the USA so Kane was AAA at 15 -> USNDTP at 16 and 17 -> OHL at 18 (due to late birthday preventing him from being in the prior year draft).

Kane wasn't really "ahead" in any meaningful aspect.

 

[Bfan14]

I think you just mean that he'd age into Juniors a year early, but Bedard was exceptional player status (there is no comparable in the USA so Kane was AAA at 15 -> USNDTP at 16 and 17 -> OHL at 18 (due to late birthday preventing him from being in the prior year draft).

Kane wasn't really "ahead" in any meaningful aspect.

He absolutely is.

Looks at players stats at 17 in the CHL vs 18 in the CHL. Its a massive improvement

You would have to compare Kane to whatever Bedard would theoretically do next season. Which would be a ridiculous gap

 

[WarriorofTime]

He absolutely is.

Looks at players stats at 17 in the CHL vs 18 in the CHL. Its a massive improvement

You would have to compare Kane to whatever Bedard would theoretically do next season. Which would be a ridiculous gap

The biggest reason players make such big jumps between 17 and 18 is because there's an insitutional politics, "keep the line" moving aspect to it. Older and more experienced players get the premiere first line and powerplay ice time. Those players age out, the 17 (now turning 18 year old) players fill their spot. They put up bigger numbers. And of course some internal improvements. Most of their players were (obviously) not Exceptional Players that were already in their 3rd season of Juniors as 17 year olds.

Everybody develops differently. And of course, if you have Connor Bedard on your Junior Team, you're giving him all the premiere ice time regardless of his age. The John Tavares comp is relevant in that he was a player that got all the premiere ice time as a young player, and so he didn't necessarily put up bigger numbers just by being older. There's nothing magical about the arbitrary January 1 - December 31 cutoff.

What Bedard would do next season is not relevant. He will of course be in the NHL. You can just compare them in their draft years and then make whatever mental adjustment is necessary to note that Kane was 8 months older during his draft year.

 

[daver]

Its also ignoring that Crosby played on hands down the best team in the Q, only behind the legendary London Knights team in the entire NHL.

Bedard plays on a team that is struggling just to make the playoffs

Crosby carried that team. And Crosby is more of a offensive driver than Bedard.

 

[daver]

The biggest reason players make such big jumps between 17 and 18 is because there's an insitutional politics, "keep the line" moving aspect to it. Older and more experienced players get the premiere first line and powerplay ice time. Those players age out, the 17 (now turning 18 year old) players fill their spot. They put up bigger numbers. And of course some internal improvements. Most of their players were (obviously) not Exceptional Players that were already in their 3rd season of Juniors as 17 year olds.

Everybody develops differently. And of course, if you have Connor Bedard on your Junior Team, you're giving him all the premiere ice time regardless of his age. The John Tavares comp is relevant in that he was a player that got all the premiere ice time as a young player, and so he didn't necessarily put up bigger numbers just by being older. There's nothing magical about the arbitrary January 1 - December 31 cutoff.

What Bedard would do next season is not relevant. He will of course be in the NHL. You can just compare them in their draft years and then make whatever mental adjustment is necessary to note that Kane was 8 months older during his draft year.

Kane is done as a comparable. Bedard is well above him regardless. Crosby is the only recent prospect still above Bedard statistically.

 

[hamzarocks]

I'm really hoping a non Canadian team gets him

I intend to bandwagon whichever team he ends on so I'm hoping it's not one of the CAD teams or boston(obviously not)

 

[MeHateHe]

I don't know if the player is any good, but I am now convinced that the best Enterprise captain was Jean-Luc Bedard, in Star Trek, the Next Generational.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Kane is done as a comparable. Bedard is well above him regardless. Crosby is the only recent prospect still above Bedard statistically.

I didn't say Kane was a comparable, it was a bit of a side discussion.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

I'm glad the retconning of QMJHL Crosby as Bob Gainey is still happening here

 

[Team_Spirit]

Scammers have discovered the Bedard mania

 

[lomiller1]

Kane is done as a comparable. Bedard is well above him regardless. Crosby is the only recent prospect still above Bedard statistically.

When you take into account what other players were doing in the QMJHL around the time Crosby played there they don't stand out the way Bedards do in the WHL. They were older than Crosby but there were a number of players in the 2.5+ point per game range in the years before and after Crosby. Prior to this year you need to go back decades to find a WHL player over 2.o ppg.

 

[authentic]

I must say the best part of this thread is waiting to see what sort of crazy mental gymnastics you'll pull off next.



'07-'10 peak Ovechkin beats out either Crosby or Malkin at their best.

Yeah not so sure about that one. 2010-14 Crosby and Malkin in 2009 and 11-12 were probably even better.

 

[Beau Knows]

I'm curious to see how quickly he can dominate. With the levels scoring are at 100 point rookie seasons seem possible again.

 

[authentic]

I'm curious to see how quickly he can dominate. With the levels scoring are at 100 point rookie seasons seem possible again.

I think he'll get close to that. Scoring is higher than Crosby's rookie year but I don't expect him to be quite that good, atleast not right away. I am predicting a 40-45 goal, 90-95 point season which would still be incredible for an 18 year old at any point in NHL history.

 

[WangMustGo]

I think he'll get close to that. Scoring is higher than Crosby's rookie year but I don't expect him to be quite that good, atleast not right away. I am predicting a 40-45 goal, 90-95 point season which would still be incredible for an 18 year old at any point in NHL history.

I think it depends on what team he goes to. If he ends up on Chicago he will likely have much lower totals than if he ends up with Vancouver. I could see him putting up 100 points in the right situation.

 

[Bfan14]

The biggest reason players make such big jumps between 17 and 18 is because there's an insitutional politics, "keep the line" moving aspect to it. Older and more experienced players get the premiere first line and powerplay ice time. Those players age out, the 17 (now turning 18 year old) players fill their spot. They put up bigger numbers. And of course some internal improvements. Most of their players were (obviously) not Exceptional Players that were already in their 3rd season of Juniors as 17 year olds.

Everybody develops differently. And of course, if you have Connor Bedard on your Junior Team, you're giving him all the premiere ice time regardless of his age. The John Tavares comp is relevant in that he was a player that got all the premiere ice time as a young player, and so he didn't necessarily put up bigger numbers just by being older. There's nothing magical about the arbitrary January 1 - December 31 cutoff.

What Bedard would do next season is not relevant. He will of course be in the NHL. You can just compare them in their draft years and then make whatever mental adjustment is necessary to note that Kane was 8 months older during his draft year.

Almost nothing you said here is true.

Are you trying to tell me a guy who plays 16 +17 +18 in the CHL has no advantage over a guy who plays just 16 +17 in the CHL but are drafted in the same season?

Drouin, Huberdeau, Marner, Steele, Frost, Voracek, Frost, Steele, etc are all players who were given top minutes at 17 and then exploded the next season with the same minutes but just having an entire development year extra. All top prospects are given top minutes at 17.

You don't have an argument here, history has shown the complete opposite of what you're saying.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

I understand this thread moves fast, is there/are there any weaknesses to his game?

 

[simonedvinsson]

I understand this thread moves fast, is there/are there any weaknesses to his game?

there's something small that may be worthy of a little note, a part of his profile that falls a tad short. it's a tiny complaint, really, nearly too miniscule to dwell on, but if we're going to nitpick the itty-bitties, it could make a huge difference in the big leagues. i'm really stretching this, but that all is to say connor bedard is rather compact.