C Connor Bedard - Regina Pats, WHL (2023 Draft) Part 5

[Dust]

They'd have to pass Moose Jaw who are 10 points ahead in order to get Saskatoon.....or pass Saskatoon to get Moose Jaw. #2 seed plays #3 seed in division

I don't believe that's how the playoff structure works in the WHL (anymore, I think they changed it as looking back to previous years it was setup the way you described). I'm fairly certain that the top seeds in each division within the conferences are seeded #1 and #2, and then it's just 3 through 8 based on points. If you look at last year, Red Deer and Lethbridge did not meet in the playoffs and they were 2 and 3 in the Central division. Moose Jaw and Saskatoon did, however they were seed 4 and 5 in the conference.

From their site: WHL Playoff Format

"The first-place teams in the two Divisions in each Conference will receive the top two playoff seeds based on Regular Season points. The next six Clubs in each Conference, based on Regular Season points, will receive the third to eighth playoff positions."

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

I do more or less agree with this. Kane had some pretty good talent to play with for a 1st overall pick. Toews was a rookie too but was immediately sick (54 points in 64 games), also forwards like Sharp, Havlat, Lang and Jason Williams, then guys like Keith, Seabrook and Buff on D. The Hawks won the lottery (moving up a bunch of spots), and had some great youth already, that team was not a typical 1OA picking team. It's likely Bedard will be in a much worse situation than that.

IMO, in terms of an 82-game pace:
* ~60 points for Bedard would be disappointing
* ~70 points (which is an unreal, exceptionally good rookie season) would be fine/solid (for Bedard)
* ~80 points would be excellent (for Bedard)
* 90+ is very unlikely, but ... not impossible. It's impossible for nearly anyone, but for Bedard, I do think there's a (small) chance

For some more context about the best D+1 rookie seasons we've seen in recent memory (so no Panarin, Ovie, Stastny, Geno, etc.):
1) Sid, 103 points/82 game pace (but he's Sid, and that was a weird year, very high penalty/high scoring)
2) McDavid, 87 points/82 game pace
3) Kane, 72 points/82 game pace
4) Laine, 72 points/82 game pace
5) Matthews, 69 points/82 game pace
6) MacKinnon, 63 points/82 game pace

And I think those are the only 60+ point D+1 rookie season paces we've seen in awhile?

If I had to guess, I'd think Bedard slots in somewhere between Kane and McDavid. But will feel better about making a prediction when I see what team he ends up on. Best (reasonable) case, I think, would be the Sharks, especially if they keep Meier. A Bedard/Hertl/Meier/Couture/Karlsson PP1 would be sick. But he could easily land in a much, much worse situation than that

Context for raw stats is sometimes needed though. 87 points would have placed 3rd in the NHL when McDavid was a rookie, last year that was 115 points. MacKinnon tied for 34th in league scoring - that was 80 points last year. Matthew's rank equivalent was 86 points last year, etc.

Basically, relative to his peers, 80 points for Bedard would be similar to 63 for MacKinnon 10 years ago.

 

[daver]

Worth noting, there's a tonne of space between "pre-draft Kane" and "pre-draft Sid/McDavid", in terms of how they were viewed as prospects. Kane panned out A LOT better than people expected, while for Sid/McDavid, this was more expected. Sid/McDavid were expected to be generational, but if you went back to before before Kane's draft, and said "I think he'll be a top 2 winger of his generation (along with Ovie)", most people would have told you "doubt it, that's extremely unlikely." People were simply wrong about him, and it showed right away, his draft year performance was shockingly good. But it wasn't crazy to doubt him, there were lots of reasons to doubt:

Kane's legacy has been boosted by some clutch play and being on a great team. If not for team success (and his contribution to that success), he likely is viewed as being a Top 10 forward for his era (a 15 year period) than Top 5. While I agree he exceeded expectations, I don't think him being a Top 5 forward (arguably #3) after being a #1 pick is that much better than what would be expected of him.

That being said, there is space between him as a prospect (#1 winger/potential franchise forward) and Crosby/McDavid level. Bedard, IMO, is the clear #3 prospect in the last 30 years (since Lindros).

 

[Gold Standard]

Another great game from the phenom! That's a +. And against a pretty decent defensive club. That is a ++. Antispiating a certain poster's mental gymastics in explaining away the post WJC PPG bump will be a +++. I do get a kick out of his nonsense.

 

[daver]

I do think he’ll average over 3 points per game in this final stretch after the world juniors.

Say, I wonder what Crosby did in his final 28 games?

He needs to average 2.81 pts/game the rest of the way to hit a post-WJCs PPG of 3.00.

But of course this won't fundamentally change who he is as a prospect - a rich man's Kane.

 

[ijuka]

16 points in his last 3 games, not bad.

Just 3 games ago he was at ~2 ppg, now 2.5.

 

[Deleted member 339941]

 

[FourQuarters]

I feel bad for Cristall, he was trucking along and was within reach, then Bedard comes back with 11 points in 2 games and the chasm is back.

I don't think so. Cristall has the responsibility to carry his team, he even don't get any help when Szturc is in the WJC, his opponents don't need to pay attention to his teammates. We could see how bad Rockets was without Cristall.
The first thing for him is to help his team win, instead of taking care of stats board. Rockets is in trouble. And now, the first thing for him is speedy recovery and preparing for top prospects game.

 

[Patrik Barkov]

Connor Bedard has 74 points in his last 23 hockey games.

 

[BB88]

People are going to be extremely disappointed by his rookie reason given ridiculous expectations they set here.

His size and playing for a terrible team will affect his scoring performance.

Patrick Kane rookie season numbers is what should be expected

About every 1st overall goes to a bad team

 

[Gold Standard]

People are going to be extremely disappointed by his rookie reason given ridiculous expectations they set here.

His size and playing for a terrible team will affect his scoring performance.

Patrick Kane rookie season numbers is what should be expected

but probably 3x better than the numbers Michkov is putting up this year in a 3rd. rate league. but you seem to be gushing over those numbers.

 

[ijuka]

but probably 3x better than the numbers Michkov is putting up this year in a 3rd. rate league. but you seem to be gushing over those numbers.

Yep, and those seasons are pretty much comparable since Michkov is almost a year older than Bedard.

That's another thing about this year's draft. Michkov and Fantilli are talked about as the closest competitors, but both are 2004. Bedard is a July 2005.

 

[ViD]

but probably 3x better than the numbers Michkov is putting up this year in a 3rd. rate league. but you seem to be gushing over those numbers.

What does you garbage attack towards Michkov have to do with Bedard ?

For your reference, Ovechkin scored 26 points in 37 RSL games in 2005, then scored over 100 in the NHL next year.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Anybody see that game? He could've had 4 or 5 assists in the first 2 periods. Never mind the goals, in the 3rd he was like: well.... i guess i'll have to make better passes then, somehow Bedard's become a better passer than he is a shooter. In the last few Regina games i've seen anyhow. Ok maybe thats hyperbole, the shot is insane, it's just that we've known that for awhile. Hockey worth paying to watch.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

What does you garbage attack towards Michkov have to do with Bedard ?

For your reference, Ovechkin scored 26 points in 37 RSL games in 2005, then scored over 100 in the NHL next year.

It's so pointless right? If you love the game, and watching great hockey, that Bedard and Michkov are both incredible is fantastic. The sooner Michkov gets to NA the better. Then we can see tangible results, instead of theoretical one upmanship. I can't wait until the first game these guys face-off head to head in the nhl.

 

[ijuka]

What does you garbage attack towards Michkov have to do with Bedard ?

For your reference, Ovechkin scored 26 points in 37 RSL games in 2005, then scored over 100 in the NHL next year.

That league was completely different, and it's not comparable with today's KHL. So why did you bring that up?

Lately, it's true that many KHL stars have ended up being disappointing, though there are some hits like Kaprizov. But all other major leagues have hits, too.

 

[jj cale]

What does you garbage attack towards Michkov have to do with Bedard ?

For your reference, Ovechkin scored 26 points in 37 RSL games in 2005, then scored over 100 in the NHL next year.

I think most of us would like to see the garbage each countries fans spew about those two prospects stop. I mean, speaking from our side here Russian fans are notorious for not being willing to give credit to players from any other then their own and especially to Canadian players. Would it hurt so much to just call a spade a spade and admit Bedard is at least as good a prospect as Michkov? it's not like their isn't loads of precedent of Canadian players being better then their Russian counterparts.

But you would never know it from Russian posters. There is being patriotic and there is just being obnoxious and pig headed.

 

[ItWasJustified]

but probably 3x better than the numbers Michkov is putting up this year in a 3rd. rate league. but you seem to be gushing over those numbers.

If the KHL (despite its player losses since the war broke out) is a 3rd. rate league, I don't even want to know what the WHL is in your eyes. A 9th rate league?

 

[ViD]

I think most of us would like to see the garbage each countries fans spew about those two prospects stop. I mean, speaking from our side here Russian fans are notorious for not being willing to give credit to players from any other then their own and especially to Canadian players. Would it hurt so much to just call a spade a spade and admit Bedard is at least as good a prospect as Michkov? it's not like their isn't loads of precedent of Canadian players being better then their Russian counterparts.

But you would never know it from Russian posters. There is being patriotic and there is just being obnoxious and pig headed.

I don’t believe I disrespected Bedard by curbing some ridiculous expectations people are putting on him. 90-100 points as a 18-19 year old ? Even McDavid wasn’t scoring at that pace. Patrick Kane rookie year comparison is fair in my opinion

 

[jj cale]

I don’t believe I disrespected Bedard by curbing some ridiculous expectations people are putting on him. 90-100 points as a 18-19 year old ? Even McDavid wasn’t scoring at that pace. Patrick Kane rookie year comparison is fair in my opinion

You can't come into the Michkov thread and curb that kids expectations I'll tell you that.

So why bother here is my question. i think, as fans of the players in question, if you can't say anything nice, you are probably better off saying nothing at all. While I do think your expectations are reasonable it probably isn't going to be taken that way by boosters of Bedard, it's going to come across as a nationalistic take and brush off of his abilities, just like it is taken as such if a Canadian poster doesn't come in singng Michkov's praises in that thread. While their take may be reasonable, it will be shot down as Canadian fanboy nonsense.

 

[jfrank21]

Personally, I will get my amusement for the next few years when the Canadiens somehow draft Michkov and all of the sudden he is a generational prospect too....

 

[jj cale]

Personally, I will get my amusement for the next few years when the Canadiens somehow draft Michkov and all of the sudden he is a generational prospect too....

As a Habs fan I can only hope this transpires.

 

[ozzie]

The hype and his overall game really remind me of a young Paul Kariya.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

I don’t believe I disrespected Bedard by curbing some ridiculous expectations people are putting on him. 90-100 points as a 18-19 year old ? Even McDavid wasn’t scoring at that pace. Patrick Kane rookie year comparison is fair in my opinion

That was a low-scoring year. McDavid was on pace to finish 3rd in league scoring as a rookie.

That's the equivalent of an approximately 115-120 pt season these days.

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

There might be a day where WHL teams realize they should rush the f*** back when Bedard is on the ice following a turnover, but until then he'll keep getting breakaway gimmies.