C Connor Bedard - Regina Pats, WHL (2023 Draft) Part 5

  • Xenforo Cloud will be upgrading us to version 2.3.5 on March 3rd at 12 AM GMT. This version has increased stability and fixes several bugs. We expect downtime for the duration of the update. The admin team will continue to work on existing issues, templates and upgrade all necessary available addons to minimize impact of this new version. Click Here for Updates
Status
Not open for further replies.
People are going to be extremely disappointed by his rookie reason given ridiculous expectations they set here.

His size and playing for a terrible team will affect his scoring performance.

Patrick Kane rookie season numbers is what should be expected
I do more or less agree with this. Kane had some pretty good talent to play with for a 1st overall pick. Toews was a rookie too but was immediately sick (54 points in 64 games), also forwards like Sharp, Havlat, Lang and Jason Williams, then guys like Keith, Seabrook and Buff on D. The Hawks won the lottery (moving up a bunch of spots), and had some great youth already, that team was not a typical 1OA picking team. It's likely Bedard will be in a much worse situation than that.

IMO, in terms of an 82-game pace:
* ~60 points for Bedard would be disappointing
* ~70 points (which is an unreal, exceptionally good rookie season) would be fine/solid (for Bedard)
* ~80 points would be excellent (for Bedard)
* 90+ is very unlikely, but ... not impossible. It's impossible for nearly anyone, but for Bedard, I do think there's a (small) chance

For some more context about the best D+1 rookie seasons we've seen in recent memory (so no Panarin, Ovie, Stastny, Geno, etc.):
1) Sid, 103 points/82 game pace (but he's Sid, and that was a weird year, very high penalty/high scoring)
2) McDavid, 87 points/82 game pace
3) Kane, 72 points/82 game pace
4) Laine, 72 points/82 game pace
5) Matthews, 69 points/82 game pace
6) MacKinnon, 63 points/82 game pace

And I think those are the only 60+ point D+1 rookie season paces we've seen in awhile?

If I had to guess, I'd think Bedard slots in somewhere between Kane and McDavid. But will feel better about making a prediction when I see what team he ends up on. Best (reasonable) case, I think, would be the Sharks, especially if they keep Meier. A Bedard/Hertl/Meier/Couture/Karlsson PP1 would be sick. But he could easily land in a much, much worse situation than that.
 
Last edited:
That I do agree with - Kane had some pretty good talent to play with for a 1st overall pick. Toews was a rookie too but was immediately sick (54 points in 64 games), also forwards like Sharp, Havlat, Lang and Jason Williams, then guys like Keith, Seabrook and Buff on D. It's likely Bedard will be in a much worse situation than that.

IMO, in terms of an 82-game pace:
- ~60 points for Bedard would be disappointing
- ~70 points (which is an unreal, exceptionally good rookie season) would be expected/solid (for Bedard)
- ~80 points would be excellent (for Bedard)
- 90+ is very unlikely, I don't see it happening, but if it does ... damn. I would say completely impossible for most, but with Bedard, I do think there's a (small) chance

If he's supposed to be on Crosby/McDavid's tier of prospect/player, then shouldn't he be expected to produce what those two did? Crosby had 100 points as a rookie, while McDavid paced for around 90 points in a lower scoring league. Neither played for good teams in their rookie years, either.

With the way offense is nowadays, shouldn't 90-ish points be what's expected if he's actually on par with those guys?
 
If he's supposed to be on Crosby/McDavid's tier of prospect/player, then shouldn't he be expected to produce what those two did? Crosby had 100 points as a rookie, while McDavid paced for around 90 points in a lower scoring league. Neither played for good teams in their rookie years, either.

With the way offense is nowadays, shouldn't 90-ish points be what's expected if he's actually on par with those guys?
I don't think he's on their level. I do think that, purely looking at how I'd rank/rate the players in their draft years (trying to ignore my knowledge of how they do after), he's closer to Sid/McDavid than Kane, but still a decent ways off Sid/McDavid.

Worth noting, there's a tonne of space between "pre-draft Kane" and "pre-draft Sid/McDavid", in terms of how they were viewed as prospects. Kane panned out A LOT better than people expected, while for Sid/McDavid, this was more expected. Sid/McDavid were expected to be generational, but if you went back to before before Kane's draft, and said "I think he'll be a top 2 winger of his generation (along with Ovie)", most people would have told you "doubt it, that's extremely unlikely." People were simply wrong about him, and it showed right away, his draft year performance was shockingly good. But it wasn't crazy to doubt him, there were lots of reasons to doubt:
- 5'9" 160 lbs at the draft
- On a crazy stacked London team where a bunch of guys were putting up nuts numbers
- Old for his draft year

All reasons to rate Kane less highly than you'd normally rate a player putting up 2.5 PPG in the CHL. Bedard doing about the same with a lot less help, in a lower scoring league, 8 months younger, while being 1" taller and 25 lbs heavier than draft-year Kane, and also putting up the best pre-draft WJC performances of all time, these are big points. Look at Rossi as an example - 2.14 PPG in his draft year would normally be 1st overall numbers, but he was old for his year, 5'9", and on a stacked team, ppl marked him down to 9th overall. Kane had better talent than Rossi, but these are things that people put plenty of weight in, and for good reason much of the time.

Without knowledge of how either player turn out, everyone would rank Bedard quite a bit higher than Kane. But IMO not as high as Sid/McDavid - those guys had other big advantages:
- Sid much better off the puck than Bedard, a dominant puck hound and great 2-way player. Much more likely than Bedard to be an NHL centre
- McDavid with the absolutely insane skating, and good size. Not as much of a puck hound or 2-way player as Sid, but better than Bedard. And also more of a centre lock, like Sid
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: wetcoast
This is pretty disingenuous. Playing on a bad team doesn't mean you don't get to play with any good players.

Do you agree that Howe, Suzdalev, and Svozil are good players?

Regina's problem is depth. They're actually pretty top heavy. It's kinda like the Oilers. Yeah, they aren't a dominant team, but McDavid has plenty of offensive talent to play with, especially on the PP.

The problem people have with my opinions is that they confuse nuance for inconsistency.
Good teams score more. That doesn't mean that Bedard's scoring is necessarily going to be heavily impacted. Howe, Suzdalev, and Svozil are all great players in their own right.
It's amazing that in half an hour you corrected the great to good above.

It's fair comment to muse on Bedard reaching Crosby or McDavid's levels in the NHL but strictly as a prospect he is alot closer to those 2 than he is to Patrick Kane.

You generally are a poster I agree with and even if I don't I think that you have a reasonable position 99.5% of the time then there are posts like this and the Johnny hockey being a really good checker one from last year in your trying to prop him up as a Hart candidate.
 
Looks like Bedard put up 3G, 2A tonight. The guy is a monster.

At this rate, he is going to set records by the end of the season.
 
Bedard didn't have a great game early on, seemed to be trying things he shouldn't against a good defensive team in the WHL. I commented yesterday that Michkov has some decision making issues from the games I've seen, and I think Bedard does have some of that (though to a lesser degree).

He still has five points anyways.

Five points is a disappointing night eh? Honestly, when you put up that many points you are going to try some things that maybe aren’t textbook and are low percentage. The coach won’t care when you produce that much.
 
Five points is a disappointing night eh? Honestly, when you put up that many points you are going to try some things that maybe aren’t textbook and are low percentage. The coach won’t care when you produce that much.
Well he did only have 1 point after 2 periods.... Buuuuut then he decided he may as well get a hat trick and some assists lol
 
The World Junior push is real, hopefully he can consistently put up 3 points a game. It's unreasonable I know, but still. He started slow today and figured something out later in the second half. Would be great if he could drag his team into the playoffs and onto the Memorial Cup.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Aashir
The World Junior push is real, hopefully he can consistently put up 3 points a game. It's unreasonable I know, but still. He started slow today and figured something out later in the second half. Would be great if he could drag his team into the playoffs and onto the Memorial Cup.

"Would be great" is an understatement. He could put up four points per game in the playoffs and they'd still likely be swept by the Winnipeg Ice.

If the Pats go on a run because Bedard is putting them on their backs, then he is beyond generational.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: LickTheEnvelope
The World Junior push is real, hopefully he can consistently put up 3 points a game. It's unreasonable I know, but still. He started slow today and figured something out later in the second half. Would be great if he could drag his team into the playoffs and onto the Memorial Cup.

I do think he’ll average over 3 points per game in this final stretch after the world juniors.

Say, I wonder what Crosby did in his final 28 games? ;)
 
"Would be great" is an understatement. He could put up four points per game in the playoffs and they'd still likely be swept by the Winnipeg Ice.

If the Pats go on a run because Bedard it putting them on their backs, then he is beyond generational.

I think they have a chance to go on a bit of a run and get the 6 seed and avoid the 2 powerhouses in Winnipeg and Red Deer. I think they would give Saskatoon a good series if they can get to the 6 spot.
 
"Would be great" is an understatement. He could put up four points per game in the playoffs and they'd still likely be swept by the Winnipeg Ice.

If the Pats go on a run because Bedard is putting them on their backs, then he is beyond generational.

Is there potential for a trade to a true contender or does that even make sense for Regina. I'm not sure if this is something Connor would push for internally.
 
I think they have a chance to go on a bit of a run and get the 6 seed and avoid the 2 powerhouses in Winnipeg and Red Deer. I think they would give Saskatoon a good series if they can get to the 6 spot.
They'd have to pass Moose Jaw who are 10 points ahead in order to get Saskatoon.....or pass Saskatoon to get Moose Jaw. #2 seed plays #3 seed in division
 
Is there potential for a trade to a true contender or does that even make sense for Regina. I'm not sure if this is something Connor would push for internally.

As per Mercedes, too late for that. My guess is Bedard doesn't want to leave Regina under these circumstances and Regina obliged because he can keep ticket prices high for the season (and because they wouldn't be allowed to do so without Bedard's consent).

The sad thing is Regina has good players, their real weak point is a defense that has little beyond Svozil.
 
I think they have a chance to go on a bit of a run and get the 6 seed and avoid the 2 powerhouses in Winnipeg and Red Deer. I think they would give Saskatoon a good series if they can get to the 6 spot.
Their games against Saskatoon have not been competitive, I can't see Regina getting any post season success this year.

If Regina can make the playoffs, it'll be tough for them.
 
From Twitter

Bedard
WHL: 30GP 34G 41A 75 PTS
WJC: 7GP 9G 14A 23 PTS
Total : 98PTS/ 37GP = 2.65 pts/ GP

Crosby
QMJHL: 62GP 66G 102A 168 PTS
WJC: 6GP 6G 3A 9PTS
Total : 177PTS/ 68GP= 2.60 pts/ GP

McDavid
OHL: 47GP 44G 76A 120 PTS
WJC: 7GP 3G 8A 11 PTS
Total : 131PTS/ 54GP = 2.43 pts/ GP
 
This guy is the real deal. Can't wait to see him in the big leagues.

Should be a fun time. Exciting to see if and how quickly he can challenge McDavid for the best player in the world.
 
  • Like
Reactions: hamzarocks
Their games against Saskatoon have not been competitive, I can't see Regina getting any post season success this year.

If Regina can make the playoffs, it'll be tough for them.
They just beat Saskatoon 7-4 like an hour before you posted that. I believe they’re 1-2 against the Blades this season, but one of the losses was when Bedard was at the WJC. With Bedard they’re 1-1, 9 goals for 9 against. They’d have a shot.

They’d be massive underdogs against Seattle or Winnipeg, though.
 
Last edited:
I do think he’ll average over 3 points per game in this final stretch after the world juniors.

Say, I wonder what Crosby did in his final 28 games? ;)
Everyone knows the final 28 games is the true test of a generational prospect...

In all seriousness how funny would it be to see the mental gymnastics of some disregard his pedigree if he went 3+ ppg from here on out
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Please disable your adblocker on HFBoards.com

It looks like your adblocker is attempting to interfere with the intended operation of this site. Support us by allowing our site to function as we intended. Please disable your adblocker and add us to your allowlist.

Frequently Asked Questions
I'm not using a blocker. Why am I seeing this message?
You're likely seeing this message because an app or extension on your computer is blocking ads. The app or extension may be a "privacy" or "malware" blocker, or a VPN.

I disabled my blocker. Why am I still seeing this message?
It's common to have two or more adblocking extensions running at the same time. See the question above.