I do more or less agree with this. Kane had some pretty good talent to play with for a 1st overall pick. Toews was a rookie too but was immediately sick (54 points in 64 games), also forwards like Sharp, Havlat, Lang and Jason Williams, then guys like Keith, Seabrook and Buff on D. The Hawks won the lottery (moving up a bunch of spots), and had some great youth already, that team was not a typical 1OA picking team. It's likely Bedard will be in a much worse situation than that.People are going to be extremely disappointed by his rookie reason given ridiculous expectations they set here.
His size and playing for a terrible team will affect his scoring performance.
Patrick Kane rookie season numbers is what should be expected
IMO, in terms of an 82-game pace:
* ~60 points for Bedard would be disappointing
* ~70 points (which is an unreal, exceptionally good rookie season) would be fine/solid (for Bedard)
* ~80 points would be excellent (for Bedard)
* 90+ is very unlikely, but ... not impossible. It's impossible for nearly anyone, but for Bedard, I do think there's a (small) chance
For some more context about the best D+1 rookie seasons we've seen in recent memory (so no Panarin, Ovie, Stastny, Geno, etc.):
1) Sid, 103 points/82 game pace (but he's Sid, and that was a weird year, very high penalty/high scoring)
2) McDavid, 87 points/82 game pace
3) Kane, 72 points/82 game pace
4) Laine, 72 points/82 game pace
5) Matthews, 69 points/82 game pace
6) MacKinnon, 63 points/82 game pace
And I think those are the only 60+ point D+1 rookie season paces we've seen in awhile?
If I had to guess, I'd think Bedard slots in somewhere between Kane and McDavid. But will feel better about making a prediction when I see what team he ends up on. Best (reasonable) case, I think, would be the Sharks, especially if they keep Meier. A Bedard/Hertl/Meier/Couture/Karlsson PP1 would be sick. But he could easily land in a much, much worse situation than that.
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