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C Connor Bedard - Regina Pats, WHL (2023 Draft) Part 4

It's early, but based on his production so far it doesn't look like he's taken that step to be a Lemieux/Lindros/Crosby/McDavid level junior player in his draft year.
 
Rengorlex said:
It's early, but based on his production so far it doesn't look like he's taken that step to be a Lemieux/Lindros/Crosby/McDavid level junior player in his draft year.
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WHL shot leaders:

Bedard 62
Lisowsky 32
Hyland 28

That's pretty outrageous.

Bedard is only shooting at 11.2%. That number should be closer to 15-20% with his shot. So his 7g 17p should probably be more like 10g 20p. He started pretty cold last season as well - I still think he's going to finish with 65+ goals and 130+ points if he plays 60+ games.

He's going to have a big season, but he's never been on the level of players you listed. He's in the Matthews tier, which is still an elite franchise player.
 
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WhiskeyYerTheDevils said:
WHL shot leaders:

Bedard 62
Lisowsky 32
Hyland 28

That's pretty outrageous.

Bedard is only shooting at 11.2%. That number should be closer to 15-20% with his shot. So his 7g 17p should probably be more like 10g 20p. He started pretty cold last season as well - I still think he's going to finish with 65+ goals and 130+ points if he plays 60+ games.

He's going to have a big season, but he's never been on the level of players you listed. He's in the Matthews tier, which is still an elite franchise player.
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Have you considered that perhaps the reason he's able to take so many shots is because many of them are low quality opportunities and hence don't have as high a scoring expectation? I think it's a bit unrealistic to just assume that a player's going to score on all of their shots at the same rate and that the goal should be to just increase the shot volume. Most volume shooters have a lower shooting %. Take Ovechkin, who is considered to have a great shot - his career shooting % is under 13. Matthews is an exception, but he's the best in NHL at getting high danger scoring chances.

Now, perhaps 11.2% is a bit low, but expecting it to average 17.5% or whatever is in my opinion somewhat unrealistic. Furthermore, for his NHL projection, I think that looking at just the shot isn't all that important. What's important is how good he's at getting to the danger areas for high quality scoring chances.
 
ijuka said:
Have you considered that perhaps the reason he's able to take so many shots is because many of them are low quality opportunities and hence don't have as high a scoring expectation? I think it's a bit unrealistic to just assume that a player's going to score on all of their shots at the same rate and that the goal should be to just increase the shot volume. Most volume shooters have a lower shooting %. Take Ovechkin, who is considered to have a great shot - his career shooting % is under 13. Matthews is an exception, but he's the best in NHL at getting high danger scoring chances.

Now, perhaps 11.2% is a bit low, but expecting it to average 17.5% or whatever is in my opinion somewhat unrealistic. Furthermore, for his NHL projection, I think that looking at just the shot isn't all that important. What's important is how good he's at getting to the danger areas for high quality scoring chances.
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He shot at 15.6% last year despite a really cold start. He shot at nearly 19% over his last 40 games last year, averaging about a goal per game. That's not the numbers of a volume shooter.

I think it's quite reasonable to assume he'll stay north of that number as he continues to improve.
 
SoundwaveIsCharisma said:
It's sad that they've got a franchise-level prospect, maybe someone that can claw his way into that generational bracket, and they've been so bad with improving the team that an improvement is maybe a .500 team.
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The problem more lies in that they were the top ranked team in the CHL in 2017, and then hosted the Memorial Cup in 2018, so they pretty much traded away all their young players and draft picks for those 2 seasons. The cupboards were pretty bare and then they got lucky and got Bedard.

Honestly the smart thing would be to move him at the deadline to a contending team and recoup a huge cache of assets to help them more forward. Whether management wants to trade away their cash cow remains to be seen. I have a feeling they may want to hear "With the number one selection from the Regina Pats" at the entry draft.
 
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If/when he gets traded (hopefully does) I think you’ll see his numbers explode.

His supporting cast is brutal.
 
Dust said:
They seem to be a little bit better this year, but I can't see them being much more than a .500 team.
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Yes at least they managed to get Suzdalev signed and traded for Oremba. Already they are a better team than last year.

Last year Bedard would have got 20 more points if the team wasn't awful. So many times I watched his linemates couldn't put in tap-ins.
 
Playing devil’s advocate:

1. Is he big enough to make an impact right away.
2. Most of his goals are shooting from the high slot in zone entries. Will NHL Ds close the gap and take away the high slot from him?
 
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Kid is near 2 points-per-game and I'd say he's been unlucky in terms of collecting points, based off the chances he creates.

The tank battles for him will be entertaining.
 
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