C Bo Horvat (2013, 9th overall, Vancouver)

[Evolu7ion]

48 points was good for 13th in NHL scoring last season. The year before, 82 points was good for 6th in scoring. It's pretty rare. The three players that year that did it, Giroux, Spezza, and Stamkos, all broke 100 points in the CHL prior to even being drafted. From last year, the only two that didn't were Eric Staal, who topped out at 98 points, and Getzlaf.... I'm just saying, let's not start putting unrealistic expectations on the kid. 82 is most likely out of the realm of possibility.

Nobody is placing unrealistic expectations on anyone. Upside and downside are not specific points we expect him to end up at, they form a range where a player could fall somewhere between. Again, PPG is not likely, but it is not unfathomable given he has scored over 100 points in his last 82 OHL games in a manner that translates well into the NHL, therefore it is reasonable to be a high point for this player. In my mind, Mackinnon, Drouin, Barkov, Lindholm, Monohan, Domi as well as others all have PPG upside as well for example.

 

[Tibetzz]

48 points was good for 13th in NHL scoring last season. The year before, 82 points was good for 6th in scoring. It's pretty rare. The three players that year that did it, Giroux, Spezza, and Stamkos, all broke 100 points in the CHL prior to even being drafted. From last year, the only two that didn't were Eric Staal, who topped out at 98 points, and Getzlaf.... I'm just saying, let's not start putting unrealistic expectations on the kid. 82 is most likely out of the realm of possibility.

Good thing he said 60-82, not 82 or higher.

 

[torlev*]

Nobody is placing unrealistic expectations on anyone. Upside and downside are not specific points we expect him to end up at, they form a range where a player could fall somewhere between. Again, PPG is not likely, but it is not unfathomable given he has scored over 100 points in his last 82 OHL games in a manner that translates

well into the NHL, therefore it is reasonable to be a high point for this player. In my mind, Mackinnon, Drouin, Barkov, Lindholm, Monohan, Domi as well as others all have PPG upside as well for example.

Is it impossible? No. Realistic? Nope. Even making comparisons to Bergeron and O'Reilly, two ELITE two way players, and saying its LIKELY he becomes that, is definitely unrealistic. If he gets to that level, consider us very lucky. The true odds are, at this point, closer to 50/50 he becomes an impact player at all. That's just the way it is with prospects. Half the players taken around the tenth spot don't play more than a couple of hundred NHL games in their entire career.

Let's give him longer than two months of games since the the draft before we start saying he's LIKELY to be an elite player of any sort. That's just crazy.

 

[torlev*]

Good thing he said 60-82, not 82 or higher.

Any mention of a point over game player is pretty silly IMO. I mean, if you want to say that, you might as well say there are 20 or 30 players in every draft with that upside scoring "potential".

 

[herashak]

should be good for 40 points a year

 

[Billybaroo*]

Decent 3rd liner. Competes hard. Boyd Gordon type. Plays hard. 30 points will be a real good year

 

[CanaFan]

Is it impossible? No. Realistic? Nope. Even making comparisons to Bergeron and O'Reilly, two ELITE two way players, and saying its LIKELY he becomes that, is definitely unrealistic. If he gets to that level, consider us very lucky. The true odds are, at this point, closer to 50/50 he becomes an impact player at all. That's just the way it is with prospects. Half the players taken around the tenth spot don't play more than a couple of hundred NHL games in their entire career.

Let's give him longer than two months of games since the the draft before we start saying he's LIKELY to be an elite player of any sort. That's just crazy.

I don't recall if the OP said "likely" to score 82 points, I think it was that he is likely to score in the 60-82 range, which usually can be read as having the highest probability to score at the lower end and declining likelihoods at the higher point levels. They need not be "equally likely" between 60-82 points. Just like when people say Crosby is likely to score between 100-130 points this year, it can be assumed that the 130 represents the lower likelihood of the range.

Anyway no one knows what Horvat is "likely" to score in the NHL … it could be 0, 20, 40, 60, or yes even 80 points someday. Since you bring up the 2012-13 season, I'm sure you noticed several players who weren't big scorers in their draft year who were at or just shy of a PPG last year, including Getzlaf (68 in 70 in his draft), Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Ladd (75 in 71), and PA Parenteau (23 in 28). It is less about what they do in their draft year and more about their progression afterwards. And with one of the highest PPG's in the OHL this year, while performing from a defensive centre role, Horvat's offensive progression has been excellent. So while you are correct in that he is not "likely" to reach the 82-point part of that 60-82 range, it isn't as absurd as you are making it out either.

 

[Evolu7ion]

Is it impossible? No. Realistic? Nope. Even making comparisons to Bergeron and O'Reilly, two ELITE two way players, and saying its LIKELY he becomes that, is definitely unrealistic. If he gets to that level, consider us very lucky. The true odds are, at this point, closer to 50/50 he becomes an impact player at all. That's just the way it is with prospects. Half the players taken around the tenth spot don't play more than a couple of hundred NHL games in their entire career.

Let's give him longer than two months of games since the the draft before we start saying he's LIKELY to be an elite player of any sort. That's just crazy.

Ever watch the TSN draft? Right under Horvat's name, TSN player comparable: Patrice Bergeron. Ray Ferraro proceeded to call him the same player as Ryan O'Reilly. Obviously these comparables are not out of left field. Of course there's the very real possibility he falls short of becoming that impactful of a player, but that doesn't mean those guys aren't comparable.

And he was taken at 9th, not 10th, and that's a poor way to measure a players probability of success. This draft year was stacked, and Horvat has already outperformed expectations at the draft about his offensive capabilities. He's shown steady growth and improvement in skating and offensive aspects of the game, and yes, IMO he is tracking to become a player at the level of Bergeron, or one step lower O'Reilly, so that outcome is a very real possibility if he maintains his current rate of progression.

But at the end of the day that's just my opinion. I'm entitled to mine, you're entitled to yours, and only time will tell.

 

[Peen]

I think we're just excited to have a prospect like Bo.

I have expectations for him to be a 50-55 point guy. The only way he'll put up 70+ points is if we surround him with two elite scorers.

 

[torlev*]

You need to realize that Boyd Gordon is unfortunately far more likely than Patrice Bergeron. Boyd Gordon was a pretty high pick that showed as much offense in junior as Bo is now. So don't laugh at it.

 

[Wilch]

You need to realize that Boyd Gordon is unfortunately far more likely than Patrice Bergeron. Boyd Gordon was a pretty high pick that showed as much offense in junior as Bo is now. So don't laugh at it.

Or you know, you could just stop trying to convince us what you think Horvat's ceiling is and just wait and see?

 

[torlev*]

Or you know, you could just stop trying to convince us what you think Horvat's ceiling is and just wait and see?

Absolutely! Which also means stop claiming we have a surefire elite two way player, worse case scenario.

 

[Wilch]

I'd like to hear how he's doing in this WJC event from people who watched it. No access here.

 

[YEGJuniorFan]

Decent 3rd liner. Competes hard. Boyd Gordon type. Plays hard. 30 points will be a real good year

Anyone who has watched him play knows that he has way more offensive upside than Gordon lol. Expect 60-70 in a good year.

 

[CanaFan]

You need to realize that Boyd Gordon is unfortunately far more likely than Patrice Bergeron. Boyd Gordon was a pretty high pick that showed as much offense in junior as Bo is now. So don't laugh at it.

Hard not to laugh. Gordon was 18 years and in his 3rd OHL season his draft year (late birthday) and still scored well below a PPG. Was also a 17 pick in a weaaak draft, not top 10 in a strong draft. Don't see much there to justify the comparison.

 

[torlev*]

Hard not to laugh. Gordon was 18 years and in his 3rd OHL season his draft year (late birthday) and still scored well below a PPG. Was also a 17 pick in a weaaak draft, not top 10 in a strong draft. Don't see much there to justify the comparison.

Going into the draft he had 51 points in 66 games. Horvat had 61 in 67 games. Horvat's is a little better, but not that much. The year after draft he had 81 points in 56 games. Horvat's pace over 56 games would equate to 88 points. That's pretty similar. Gordon never made Team Canada, mind you.

I'm not saying they're the same either. No doubt Horvat seems higher potential. I'm just saying the reasonable projections (not absolute high end potential) are closer to him than they are to a 60 to 80 point player.

 

[Drew Doubty]

Going into the draft he had 51 points in 66 games. Horvat had 61 in 67 games. Horvat's is a little better, but not that much. The year after draft he had 81 points in 56 games. Horvat's pace over 56 games would equate to 88 points. That's pretty similar. Gordon never made Team Canada, mind you.

I'm not saying they're the same either. No doubt Horvat seems higher potential. I'm just saying the reasonable projections (not absolute high end potential) are closer to him than they are to a 60 to 80 point player.

You said 30 points would be "good" for him. No. It wouldnt. If thats where he tops out then it would be well below expectations. I'd say his ceiling is 70-80 point 2 way forward and the middle ground would be a 50 point 2 way forward.

 

[Reign Nateo]

Decent 3rd liner. Competes hard. Boyd Gordon type. Plays hard. 30 points will be a real good year

Uhhh no... They're not really in the same class...

 

[Reign Nateo]

You need to realize that Boyd Gordon is unfortunately far more likely than Patrice Bergeron. Boyd Gordon was a pretty high pick that showed as much offense in junior as Bo is now. So don't laugh at it.

Stats don't tell the whole story, but go have a look at their respective junior stats... Horvat was expected to take a big step this year, and has succeeded so far. At this point, Boyd Gordon is not a good compareable. The pick used to select Gordon was traded to Washington in the Trevor Linden deal. I've followed him closely. Even at the time Gordon was drafted he was seen as a defensive checker, that is not what Bo Horvat is doing. Not even close.

 

[torlev*]

You said 30 points would be "good" for him. No. It wouldnt. If thats where he tops out then it would be well below expectations. I'd say his ceiling is 70-80 point 2 way forward and the middle ground would be a 50 point 2 way forward.

No I didn't. Someone else did, and I don't think that was serious. Certainly hope for more than that.

 

[torlev*]

Stats don't tell the whole story, but go have a look at their respective junior stats... Horvat was expected to take a big step this year, and has succeeded so far. At this point, Boyd Gordon is not a good compareable. The pick used to select Gordon was traded to Washington in the Trevor Linden deal. I've followed him closely. Even at the time Gordon was drafted he was seen as a defensive checker, that is not what Bo Horvat is doing. Not even close.

A defensive checker who managed similar offensive output?

 

[Evolu7ion]

The Gordon comparable is not really a comparable at all, it's more of a low end point in a range where Horvat could likely fall. That would be like saying Nurse's comparable is Mark Stuart.

 

[Reign Nateo]

A defensive checker who managed similar offensive output?

- Gordon's PPG pace the year after he was drafted: 1.44; Horvat? 1.57 so far.
- Gordon is an October birth, Horvat April, which means Horvat is doing better while being 6 months younger than Gordon was at the time.
- Red Deer went 50-17-3-2 that year. They were a WHL powerhouse with guys like Dion Phanuef and Cam Ward (not that London doesn't look good; just not that good at their current .770 win percentage).

Is it a similar offensive output? Sure, relatively speaking. Is it as impressive as what Horvat is doing? No, not at all. Add to that scouting reports (Gordon was a poor-man's Linden and Horvat Patrice Bergeron or Mike Richards) and it's clear we're not talking about the same caliber of prospect.

Gordon was known as a grinder leading to the draft and after it. Horvat is known as a guy that was a bit of a 'late bloomer' and scouts predicted he could break-out. He's done just that so far. I don't think Boyd Gordon's stats on a powerhouse Red Deer team 10 years ago tell us a whole hell of a lot about the potential of Bo Horvat honestly...

All we have are scouting reports, our own eyes and stats and none of those things should have us comparing Horvat to Gordon at this stage.

 

[CanaFan]

- Gordon's PPG pace the year after he was drafted: 1.44; Horvat? 1.57 so far.
- Gordon is an October birth, Horvat April, which means Horvat is doing better while being 6 months younger than Gordon was at the time.
- Red Deer went 50-17-3-2 that year. They were a WHL powerhouse with guys like Dion Phanuef and Cam Ward (not that London doesn't look good; just not that good at their current .770 win percentage).

Is it a similar offensive output? Sure, relatively speaking. Is it as impressive as what Horvat is doing? No, not at all. Add to that scouting reports (Gordon was a poor-man's Linden and Horvat Patrice Bergeron or Mike Richards) and it's clear we're not talking about the same caliber of prospect.

Gordon was known as a grinder leading to the draft and after it. Horvat is known as a guy that was a bit of a 'late bloomer' and scouts predicted he could break-out. He's done just that so far. I don't think Boyd Gordon's stats on a powerhouse Red Deer team 10 years ago tell us a whole hell of a lot about the potential of Bo Horvat honestly...

All we have are scouting reports, our own eyes and stats and none of those things should have us comparing Horvat to Gordon at this stage.

Even stat scouting - which is inadvisable at the best of times - doesn't favour this comparison, given that Gordon was one of the oldest players in the 2002 draft (late 1983-born) and was already in his 3rd WHL season when he put up well-below PPG in his draft year. I couldn't find any old scouting reports on the guy but I recall 2002 was viewed as a very thin draft at the time - even Nash was considered a "meh" 1st OA pick at the time - and even then he didn't go until #17. Would be surprised if he was drafted with expectations beyond becoming a grinder/checker and that his offensive burst in his draft +1 season was an unexpected bonus.

Horvat, by comparison, suffered a slow start to his draft year (16 pts in 28 games to start) before switching his skate edge and exploding for 41 goals and 68 points in the last 61 games of the season + playoffs. His stock rose to the point where he became a top 10 pick in a strong 2013 draft and was based largely on the expectation that his offensive game had untapped potential, not because he projected to top out as a 30 point 3C. So far this year, his PPG has accelerated (1.57) all while still performing the role as London's top defensive centre (i.e. heavy D-zone starts with Domi getting the bulk of O-zone starts). Horvat has certainly benefited _somewhat_ from playing the PP with a talented player in Domi, as well as some limited 5-on-5 ice time, though they have really only paired up the last few games before WJC camp started.

While it is certainly not impossible that Horvat tops out as a 30 pt 3C, this would be considered a massive disappointment and should not be considered his "expected" production, anymore than saying he should develop into an 80+ pt 1C a la Ryan Getzlaf simply because they both had near PPG in their draft years (Getz had 68pts in 70). Good projections run deeper than merely finding another player with similar junior stats.

Edit: Sorry RN, didn't mean to quote you for this post, as I obv agree with your points above.

 

[Virtanen2Horvat]

I'd like to hear how he's doing in this WJC event from people who watched it. No access here.

I haven't really watched it but I know he has 1 goal and an assist.