C Bo Horvat (2013, 9th overall, Vancouver)

[Diamonddog01]

I'm not a big believer in arguing with other posters over whether a pick is "good" or "bad" since it makes no material difference on how he will actually develop, but just wanted to address your "small sample size" argument.

Here are 2 segments of games from Horvat's draft season:

Segment 1 (start of season): 27 games 8g 8a 16pts (0.59 PPG)

Segment 2 (changes skate blades): 61 games 41g 27a 68pts (1.12 PPG)


So if you look at his season into these 2 distinct segments, he had one stretch of 21 games well under PPG (0.59) and then an extended stretch of 61 games - including playoffs many of which were against top OHL teams - where he put up a more impressive PPG (1.12).

So which of these two segments - 27 games (31% of his total games) or 61 games (69% of his total games) - do you consider the "small sample size"?

Neither, I was speaking of the playoffs. I think that stretch has clouded many people's view of him, as runs in the playoffs tend to do.

 

[Wisp]

The point Canafan is making is his production in the playoffs is consistent through that 61 game stretch. He didn't "get hot." He produced at a similar pace before and after the regular season ended. There's no "raises his game!" narrative here to be wary of because he consistently played the same game.

I haven't heard from a single hockey person who felt Vancouver deviated from consensus and made a bad pick. the Canucks weren't the only team he wanted him badly. Carolina (smart drafters who identified Skinner) had him at 5, another team at 4 (per McGuire). Habs were trying to trade up for him too.

 

[CanaFan]

Neither, I was speaking of the playoffs. I think that stretch has clouded many people's view of him, as runs in the playoffs tend to do.

The point Canafan is making is his production in the playoffs is consistant with a 61 game stretch. He didn't "get hot." He produced at a similar pace before and after the regular season ended. There's no "raises his game!" Narrative here to be wary of because he consistently played the same game.

I haven't heard from a single hockey person who felt Vancouver deviated from consensus and made a bad pick. the Canucks weren't the only team he wanted him badly. Carolina (smart drafters who identified Skinner) had him at 5, another team at 4 (per McGuire). Habs were trying to trade up for him too.

Exactly. Horvat scored 45 pts in the final 40 reg season games (1.13PPG) after he changed the type of skates he wears and 23 pts in the remaining 21 playoff games (1.10PPG). Basically an identical PPG through his last 40 reg season games and through 21 playoff games. That is a span of 61 games, nearly a full OHL season that he was "hot". Yes, his goals-per-game went up in the playoffs (16 in 21 or .76GPG) over the last 40 games of his regular season (25 in 40 or .63GPG) but he went from an "excellent pace" (42 goal pace) in the last 40 games to an "amazing pace" (52 goal pace) in the playoffs. Honestly if he _only_ scored at a 42 goal pace through the last 61 games and didn't increase his rate for the playoffs, I think he'd still be considered to have above-average offensive upside.

So constantly dismissing his 21 playoff games as "luck" or "a streak" is bizzare, since it is largely the same as his previous 40 regular season games where he scored at a slightly higher PPG and a somewhat lower GPG. If anything _could_ get written off as an outlier or small sample size, it is his first 27 games where he scored at an uncharacteristic rate of just 16 points in 27 games or 0.59 PPG. And that isn't me over-rating Horvat or cherry picking stats to suit an argument, that is the true break-down of his season.

 

[MISC*]

London next year?

Utica the year after?

Canucks the following year?


EDIT:

I'd love him to end up like ROR with a tad more goal scoring.

 

[Wisp]

London next year?

Utica the year after?

Canucks the following year?


EDIT:

I'd love him to end up like ROR with a tad more goal scoring.

He's 17, gotta be 20 to play in the AHL.

 

[CanaFan]

He's 17, gotta be 20 to play in the AHL.

He's an April birthday, so I believe you are right that Horvat would need to play his next two seasons in the CHL or NHL. Would Shinkaruk be eligible after his next CHL season? He's born in October like Michael Grabner, who IIRC played only 1 post-draft CHL season before playing AHL. For that reason we may actually see Shinkaruk in Utica before Horvat, even though I think Horvat could probably play in the AHL today if he was eligible.

 

[Diamonddog01]

The point Canafan is making is his production in the playoffs is consistent through that 61 game stretch. He didn't "get hot." He produced at a similar pace before and after the regular season ended. There's no "raises his game!" narrative here to be wary of because he consistently played the same game.

I haven't heard from a single hockey person who felt Vancouver deviated from consensus and made a bad pick. the Canucks weren't the only team he wanted him badly. Carolina (smart drafters who identified Skinner) had him at 5, another team at 4 (per McGuire). Habs were trying to trade up for him too.

You keep stating this but I find it highly unlikely. In order for Horvat to be ranked 5th by Carolina, they would have to have ranked Lindholm above him, and that pushes one of Barkov, Drouin, Mac or Jones out of the top 4.

I think that's silly to be honest.

 

[Grub]

Not a lot of people have seen this video on Horvat's performance in the OHL playoffs and the Memorial Cup.

He scored 3 game winning goals in the last series alone including the game 7 game winning goal with 0.1 seconds left to win the OHL championship. He is very clutch.

For those who bash his offensive potential, just watch the video.

Horvat is number 53 by the way.

 

[StringerBell]

Haven't read through the thread but is Horvat officially viewed as overrated yet?

Overrated by some, underrated by others. It's a pretty unhealthy combo of hype/hate from what I've seen (not necessarily this thread).

You keep stating this but I find it highly unlikely. In order for Horvat to be ranked 5th by Carolina, they would have to have ranked Lindholm above him, and that pushes one of Barkov, Drouin, Mac or Jones out of the top 4.

I think that's silly to be honest.

LeBrun said he was next on Carolina's list and they almost took him over Lindholm. There were also a few teams who reportedly didn't have Jones in their top 6 prospects (crazy IMO) so it's possible Carolina had him at 5. If not 5, he was probably 6.

 

[CanaFan]

Not a lot of people have seen this video on Horvat's performance in the OHL playoffs and the Memorial Cup.

He scored 3 game winning goals in the last series alone including the game 7 game winning goal with 0.1 seconds left to win the OHL championship. He is very clutch.

For those who bash his offensive potential, just watch the video.

Horvat is number 53 by the way.

Nice video, though won't wow anyone who isn't already a fan (I am btw). What I like about it though is how many of his goals look like "NHL goals". Meaning they aren't 1-on-1 dangles or wristers from 35 feet out that, while pretty, aren't going to be terribly effective on NHL defensemen or goalies. Horvat scores the kind of goals that get scored in the NHL; fast plays around the net, quick touch passes, and just plain old hard work and persistence. You can tell he has the body to play the same style in the NHL as he does in junior (just look at him with his gear off, he's a broad as he is tall) and every scouting report talks about how well he sees the ice and thinks the game. To me those are the key attributes - along with work ethic - that lead to success in the NHL. He can continue to work on and improve his skating (though it isn't bad now) and his shot (also not bad) as he moves through junior to the AHL to the NHL. But you can't fix someone's hockey sense or work ethic if they don't have it to begin with.

 

[thefeebster]

You keep stating this but I find it highly unlikely. In order for Horvat to be ranked 5th by Carolina, they would have to have ranked Lindholm above him, and that pushes one of Barkov, Drouin, Mac or Jones out of the top 4.

I think that's silly to be honest.

It may be silly in your opinion but it doesn't mean it wasn't what happened.

@WHLFromAbove: Have been told a few teams don't have Seth Jones in their top 3, while some don't have him in their top 6. I would still support him at #1.

The problem with so many here during draft time is that they speak in absolutes. Nothing is set in stone, just like HFboards perceived top 4 may not match teams' top 4.

 

[pitseleh]

I like the number of goals he scored off of turnovers he created.

 

[CanaFan]

It may be silly in your opinion but it doesn't mean it wasn't what happened.



The problem with so many here during draft time is that they speak in absolutes. Nothing is set in stone, just like HFboards perceived top 4 may not match teams' top 4.

A mistake that is repeated each year in every mock draft where fans insist that "there is no way Player X falls past us" or "there's no chance they go ahead of so-and-so" and yet every year we see that team lists often diverge wildly from so-called consensus lists where most fans get their rankings.

TheFeebster, I know you are an avid prospect follower and while I'm sure you've given your views on Horvat in other threads I don't recall what your thoughts on Horvat are, if you don't mind sharing them again.

 

[thefeebster]

TheFeebster, I know you are an avid prospect follower and while I'm sure you've given your views on Horvat in other threads I don't recall what your thoughts on Horvat are, if you don't mind sharing them again.

Well I've been fairly vocal on the Canucks board I've been a big fan of his all season long, was disappointed when he played himself out of the 20 range. But I have no qualms taking him at 9. I love the way he plays the game, he is one of the hardest workers on the ice every time i've watched him, very smart at both ends of the ice, works hard to create space for his teammates and himself. This is the kind of guy that every team needs and wants to win, so I am glad we have him.

Can't wait to see him play for the Canucks. I don't think it will or should be this season because he is set up for a great and integral development year; set to take the 1C spot for London, a chance at the WJC roster, OHL playoffs and another memorial cup run. Those opportunities are just too good to pass up and he needs time too.

 

[CanaFan]

Well I've been fairly vocal on the Canucks board I've been a big fan of his all season long, was disappointed when he played himself out of the 20 range. But I have no qualms taking him at 9. I love the way he plays the game, he is one of the hardest workers on the ice every time i've watched him, very smart at both ends of the ice, works hard to create space for his teammates and himself. This is the kind of guy that every team needs and wants to win, so I am glad we have him.

Can't wait to see him play for the Canucks. I don't think it will or should be this season because he is set up for a great and integral development year; set to take the 1C spot for London, a chance at the WJC roster, OHL playoffs and another memorial cup run. Those opportunities are just too good to pass up and he needs time too.

Much obliged. I don't want to see him in the NHL next season either, as I'd like him to play a more prominent offensive role in junior and have some of the opportunities that you've mentioned next year (WJC, another Mem Cup). It is good for his confidence and skills development to play in that 1C role and face the plethora of offensive and defensive situations that entails. While he likely could play the 3C role for Vancouver as early as next season, I don't like the idea of him getting pegged with primarily defensive duties in the midst of his development. I do think though that Torts is absolutely love Horvat when he does make the show.

 

[Vagrant]

Another thing to consider from any team's "list" is the fact that a LOT of teams red flag players and remove them from their board for whatever reason strikes their fancy. It could have been something as simple as Barkov's shoulder, a bad interview that Jones gave, or simply not thinking Drouin was strong enough to play in the league. You just never know. It's not uncommon for teams to pull guys off their boards entirely for such seemingly arbitrary reasons, and as such it is the nature of the "faller" and "fast riser", all in one.

I know for a fact that Carolina had a take on the Top 4 in this draft that was unconventional. I don't know the particulars, but I do know that it consisted of the exclusion of one of the consensus players taken before their pick. They grabbed Lindholm. Carolina was also entertaining the thought of trading down simply for the purpose of taking Horvat, but couldn't find a team that wanted to pick 5th badly enough to give up the required price. They had targeted Buffalo at 8th overall but nothing materialized. Horvat would have gone there at the lowest had they been able to make it happen. And trust me, they did try to get there.

The Andrej Sekera trade was the product of these talks. Carolina wanted Sekera and the 8th overall pick for the 5th overall pick (various reports had mentioned Myers but that was likely smoke). When that deal fell through and Buffalo saw they had a bead on their guy at 8th, the talks shifted to Buffalo asking about the 35th overall pick that was eventually dealt for Sekera.

 

[irunthepeg]

He's an April birthday, so I believe you are right that Horvat would need to play his next two seasons in the CHL or NHL. Would Shinkaruk be eligible after his next CHL season? He's born in October like Michael Grabner, who IIRC played only 1 post-draft CHL season before playing AHL. For that reason we may actually see Shinkaruk in Utica before Horvat, even though I think Horvat could probably play in the AHL today if he was eligible.

I could be wrong but that might be due to him not being from NA? Or does it not matter once he's drafted into the CHL? I thought they could go to the AHL regardless of CHL rights at that point.

 

[CanaFan]

I could be wrong but that might be due to him not being from NA? Or does it not matter once he's drafted into the CHL? I thought they could go to the AHL regardless of CHL rights at that point.

No, the players nationality doesn't matter, just whether they are drafted out of the CHL (rule applies) or any other league (rule doesn't apply). The age restriction isn't an AHL rule - Patrik Stefan played as a 17 year old in the AHL rival IHL - but it is merely an agreement between the AHL and CHL not to let players drafted out of the CHL to play before their 20 yo season. This is why Grabner could play after only one CHL season post-draft, and why I think Shinkaruk might be able to as well.

 

[irunthepeg]

No, the players nationality doesn't matter, just whether they are drafted out of the CHL (rule applies) or any other league (rule doesn't apply). The age restriction isn't an AHL rule - Patrik Stefan played as a 17 year old in the AHL rival IHL - but it is merely an agreement between the AHL and CHL not to let players drafted out of the CHL to play before their 20 yo season. This is why Grabner could play after only one CHL season post-draft, and why I think Shinkaruk might be able to as well.

Wait, wasn't Shinkaruk drafted out of the CHL though? Isn't he in Medicine Hat?

 

[CanaFan]

Wait, wasn't Shinkaruk drafted out of the CHL though? Isn't he in Medicine Hat?

Yes, but like Grabner he is an October birthday for his draft year. I just looked it up and it says a CHL player must turn 20 by Dec 31 of their AHL season or have played 4 CHL seasons. I believe Grabner was able to play 1 year after his draft year because of the birthday rule, which would also apply to Shinkaruk - he turns 19 this October and therefore will be 20 the following year and eligible for AHL. Shinkaruk would also be eligble for AHL based on having played 4 CHL seasons as well, since this upcoming year will be his 4th. Horvat on the other hand will play just his 3rd season this year, and won't turn 20 until after Dec 31 next season, meaning he can't play AHL for 2 more seasons. Moot point though as he (Horvat) is probably on track to play with the big club after one more junior season, I would think. Shinkaruk however I can see spending at least one season in Utica before jumping to the NHL.

 

[Virtanen2Horvat]

Once Guance, Horvat, Shinkaruk, Jensen start playing and getting ready man are the Canucks going to be dangerous.

Sedin-Sedin-Kassian
Booth-Kesler-Burrows
Shinkaruk-Horvat-Jensen
Sestito-Guance-Hansen

Once Kesler and the guys slow down promote the 3rd line to the 2nd line.

 

[le_sean]

Once Guance, Horvat, Shinkaruk, Jensen start playing and getting ready man are the Canucks going to be dangerous.

Sedin-Sedin-Kassian
Booth-Kesler-Burrows
Shinkaruk-Horvat-Jensen
Sestito-Guance-Hansen

Once Kesler and the guys slow down promote the 3rd line to the 2nd line.

I'm sorry to say, but once all of those guys become NHL regulars the Sedins will be 36 and slow down considerably. They are already producing a little less.

That said, I think Horvat is a great prospect and good on Vancouver for getting Shinkaruk that late.

 

[canucksfan100]

I'm sorry to say, but once all of those guys become NHL regulars the Sedins will be 36 and slow down considerably. They are already producing a little less.

That said, I think Horvat is a great prospect and good on Vancouver for getting Shinkaruk that late.

Horvat and Jensen will be ready by next year imo. Gaunce could prob play a OK 3C right now. Shinkaruk is a wildcard, no idea when he'll be ready. Could be a Skinner of could need several years to develop.

 

[arsmaster*]

I'm sorry to say, but once all of those guys become NHL regulars the Sedins will be 36 and slow down considerably. They are already producing a little less.

I know this has nothing to do with Bo Horvat, but the Sedin's don't require blazing speed or insane physical strength to play "their game".

Yes, they'll be older and slower, likely knocking them of the stoop of 1st liners, but we've seen similar cerebral offensive talents play late....Lidstrom, Jagr, Alfredsson to name a couple.

I think the Sedin's will be 50-60 point players when they're 37 or 38. I wouldn't say it's likely that the other posters roster comes to fruition, but I wouldn't say it's impossible or unrealistic.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

Character guys with offensive/scoring ability are increasingly hard to come by. Most guys are either void of skill and are valuable because they are hard workers and physical, or are naturally gifted and give minimal effort otherwise these days. Guys with skill who are also passionate and committed to all other zones of the ice are rarer and rarer. Horvat is picked this high because he has skill AND he has heart and a desire/willingness to play in all situations and really help a team. There are other guys who have more offensive talent, but don't want to get involved in the dirty areas or focus energy on the defensive side the way Horvat does.noe

EDIT: I'm a Leaf fan and I hate the Canucks and a majority of their fans. If you let that stand in the way of your opinion of a player, then you're opinion can't be seen with any merit. Nucks got a gamer.