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C Berkly Catton - Spokane Chiefs, WHL (2024, 8th, SEA)

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Nico Cauzuki said:
no way he goes outside top 15
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I’d like to say that’s true, but people said the same thing about Cristall last year, and they have the same issue.

He has top end skills. No doubt. If you’re never going to be able to use those skills though, because you can’t put on muscle, due to your body type, what does it matter?? Biology still matters. A lot..

Like I said earlier. The good news is, he’s 18, and you pray he’s somehow able to put on that strength. Late growth spurts happen. It’s not just a height/weight thing though. That’s where fans get confused. It’s his bone structure, etc. Ever seen an NHL player’s calves? Your body has to be able to grow like that.

Compare him to two others in that general range?? Ryder Ritchie and the Connelly kid in the USHL. Those guys have a similar height/weight, but their core strength is developing. They have that 3rd and 4th gear, you get with core strength. More than likely, they’ll be able to add that 20 pounds of muscle.

We see a few guys every year like this, and it sucks for them, because they are so skilled. The Russian Dman Colorado took in the 2nd Round last year fell because of this issue. Dennis Cholowski didn’t fall, but suffers from it. We’re seeing it right now, with Lukas Cormier. He looked like a 15 year old in those Vegas games, and he’s actually been able to add some muscle and core strength. Still, he dropped well out of the 1st Round.

Because of the lack of pure skill in the Top 50 from forwards, still think he’s a 1st no matter what, but wouldn’t be shocked. If he could mesh together his skill set with the physical ability of Calum Ritchie in the OHL, who has the complete opposite issue, we’d have a star. Calum Ritchie’s production almost solely comes from his physical strength and size. Same thing though. That by itself won’t work in the NHL. You take a player like that, hoping he develops a couple of high end skills. At least with him, he will still have a shot in the bottom 6, even if he doesn’t score in the NHL.

There’s a reason guys like Stefan and Klassen (with Portland) are never drafted, but just produce like crazy in junior. Remember Tyler Maxwell from Everett, then the Oil Kings? He was one of the best 1991 players, his entire time growing up, through Juniors, yet was never drafted or signed. Pretty sure he ever played a regular season NHL game.

There’s 3-4 major physical attributes you need to play in the NHL. Even if you’re extremely skilled.. If you’re missing those, you can generally score in every other league. Just not the one that counts.

These next two months are crucial for him with scouts. We start seeing him hit another gear when he’s taking a dman wide, teams will feel much more confident, using such a high pick on him. If he doesn’t, it’s gonna be a long development process, and fans will be confused, because he’ll be lighting up the lower levels.
 
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Petes2424 said:
I’d like to say that’s true, but people said the same thing about Cristall last year, and they have the same issue.

He has top end skills. No doubt. If you’re never going to be able to use those skills though, because you can’t put on muscle, due to your body type, what does it matter?? Biology still matters. A lot..

Like I said earlier. The good news is, he’s 18, and you pray he’s somehow able to put on that strength. Late growth spurts happen. It’s not just a height/weight thing though. That’s where fans get confused. It’s his bone structure, etc. Ever seen an NHL player’s calves? Your body has to be able to grow like that.

Compare him to two others in that general range?? Ryder Ritchie and the Connelly kid in the USHL. Those guys have a similar height/weight, but their core strength is developing. They have that 3rd and 4th gear, you get with core strength. More than likely, they’ll be able to add that 20 pounds of muscle.

We see a few guys every year like this, and it sucks for them, because they are so skilled. The Russian Dman Colorado took in the 2nd Round last year fell because of this issue. Dennis Cholowski didn’t fall, but suffers from it. We’re seeing it right now, with Lukas Cormier. He looked like a 15 year old in those Vegas games, and he’s actually been able to add some muscle and core strength. Still, he dropped well out of the 1st Round.

Because of the lack of pure skill in the Top 50 from forwards, still think he’s a 1st no matter what, but wouldn’t be shocked. If he could mesh together his skill set with the physical ability of Calum Ritchie in the OHL, who has the complete opposite issue, we’d have a star. Calum Ritchie’s production almost solely comes from his physical strength and size. Same thing though. That by itself won’t work in the NHL. You take a player like that, hoping he develops a couple of high end skills. At least with him, he will still have a shot in the bottom 6, even if he doesn’t score in the NHL.

There’s a reason guys like Stefan and Klassen (with Portland) are never drafted, but just produce like crazy in junior. Remember Tyler Maxwell from Everett, then the Oil Kings? He was one of the best 1991 players, his entire time growing up, through Juniors, yet was never drafted or signed. Pretty sure he ever played a regular season NHL game.

There’s 3-4 major physical attributes you need to play in the NHL. Even if you’re extremely skilled.. If you’re missing those, you can generally score in every other league. Just not the one that counts.

These next two months are crucial for him with scouts. We start seeing him hit another gear when he’s taking a dman wide, teams will feel much more confident, using such a high pick on him. If he doesn’t, it’s gonna be a long development process, and fans will be confused, because he’ll be lighting up the lower levels.
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I feel you could have tried to make this argument with Marner, but it wouldn’t have played out well.
 
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Petes2424 said:
I’d like to say that’s true, but if he is unable to physically develop the strength to play in the NHL, he’ll be using all those skills in Europe or the AHL.

Like I said before, look at all the mock drafts from this time last year. Cristall was between 10-20 in all of them. They have the same issue, and teams won’t ignore that.

The list of players, who’s body structure just doesn’t allow them to gain enough strength to play in the NHL is endless. Dennis Cholowski is a great example. Lukas Cormier fell to the 3rd round because of it. When you’re small boned, and have a thin build, it’s an issue. It’s why the dman Colorado took last year, fell out of the round.

Just look at comparative players like Ryder Ritchie or the Connelly kid in the USHL. They have those 3rd and 4th gear power moves, that come from strength. Even though their height/weight is similar, their lower bodies are built like tanks. Teams will likely take them over him. Much easier to feel comfortable Tim they develop the required strength.

If he doesn’t show some strength improvement over the next two months, he’s going to be interesting to watch at the draft. Because this draft isn’t as skilled in the Top 50 like last year’s, I can’t see him falling out of the 1st round. Won’t be shocked though.

10-20 years ago, he’s a Top 10 pick probably. Team’s amateur scouting is so complex these days though, they can tell you what a kids been eating since he was 12.

Like I said, you root for him cause he’s so skilled, but there are some pretty big concerns.
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I had Cristall at 28 in my final list and I was projecting hom as a last 1st/mid 2nd pick. He got drafted at 40, not surprised. He's more in the Stankoven, DeBrincat, Girard case as smaller ultra offensive player that fall to the 2nd round.

For Cholowski, I don't get your point. He's 6'2'' and 210 lbs. It's always a gamble to draft defensemen out of lower leagues early. You get unicorns like Makar once in a blue moon. Better thake a chance in the 2nd round like Carolina did with Scott Morrow.

Colorado picked Gulyayev at 31 last year and had not pick until the 5th round.
Bubbles said:
I'm not sure why people keep using Cristall as a comparison. Other than having two legs and two arms, they are different type of players.
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100% agreed. I think he compares better with the likes of Zach Benson, Matt Savoie, Frank Nazar, Matt Coronato, Marco Rossi, Cole Perfetti, Seth Jarvis, etc. who were picked between 9th and 13th in the last 4 drafts.
Petes2424 said:
I’d like to say that’s true, but people said the same thing about Cristall last year, and they have the same issue.

He has top end skills. No doubt. If you’re never going to be able to use those skills though, because you can’t put on muscle, due to your body type, what does it matter?? Biology still matters. A lot..

Like I said earlier. The good news is, he’s 18, and you pray he’s somehow able to put on that strength. Late growth spurts happen. It’s not just a height/weight thing though. That’s where fans get confused. It’s his bone structure, etc. Ever seen an NHL player’s calves? Your body has to be able to grow like that.

Compare him to two others in that general range?? Ryder Ritchie and the Connelly kid in the USHL. Those guys have a similar height/weight, but their core strength is developing. They have that 3rd and 4th gear, you get with core strength. More than likely, they’ll be able to add that 20 pounds of muscle.

We see a few guys every year like this, and it sucks for them, because they are so skilled. The Russian Dman Colorado took in the 2nd Round last year fell because of this issue. Dennis Cholowski didn’t fall, but suffers from it. We’re seeing it right now, with Lukas Cormier. He looked like a 15 year old in those Vegas games, and he’s actually been able to add some muscle and core strength. Still, he dropped well out of the 1st Round.

Because of the lack of pure skill in the Top 50 from forwards, still think he’s a 1st no matter what, but wouldn’t be shocked. If he could mesh together his skill set with the physical ability of Calum Ritchie in the OHL, who has the complete opposite issue, we’d have a star. Calum Ritchie’s production almost solely comes from his physical strength and size. Same thing though. That by itself won’t work in the NHL. You take a player like that, hoping he develops a couple of high end skills. At least with him, he will still have a shot in the bottom 6, even if he doesn’t score in the NHL.

There’s a reason guys like Stefan and Klassen (with Portland) are never drafted, but just produce like crazy in junior. Remember Tyler Maxwell from Everett, then the Oil Kings? He was one of the best 1991 players, his entire time growing up, through Juniors, yet was never drafted or signed. Pretty sure he ever played a regular season NHL game.

There’s 3-4 major physical attributes you need to play in the NHL. Even if you’re extremely skilled.. If you’re missing those, you can generally score in every other league. Just not the one that counts.

These next two months are crucial for him with scouts. We start seeing him hit another gear when he’s taking a dman wide, teams will feel much more confident, using such a high pick on him. If he doesn’t, it’s gonna be a long development process, and fans will be confused, because he’ll be lighting up the lower levels.
Click to expand...
Sometimes, scouts underestimates biology. Lane Hutson was 5'8'' at the combine that is too small for an NHL dman so was drafted 62th. He's now 5'10" and is a 1st rounder in any 2022 redrafts. If he can be a player similar to Quinn Hughes/Ryan Ellis/Sam Girard/Tyson Barrie/Sami Vatanen/Kris Russell (all 5'10'' Dmen), it would be a huge win for the Habs.
 
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Why did Riley Heidt go very end of 2nd round with a 1.426 PPG in WHL last year? Not that big and not an explosive skater? Catton is producing at a bit better of a clip but is his skating much better also?
 
SimGrindcore said:
Sometimes, scouts underestimates biology. Lane Hutson was 5'8'' at the combine that is too small for an NHL dman so was drafted 62th. He's now 5'10" and is a 1st rounder in any 2022 redrafts. If he can be a player similar to Quinn Hughes/Ryan Ellis/Sam Girard/Tyson Barrie/Sami Vatanen/Kris Russell (all 5'10'' Dmen), it would be a huge win for the Habs.
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Maybe some of them underestimate biology, but the more likely answer is that the collective market of NHL teams, roughly, correctly assesses the risk of biology. Sure, Lane Hutson may turn out a hit. But there is still a chance, and there was a greater chance at the draft, that he doesn't. If you're small, the risk is higher. Of course some small players grow and some don't grow and still succeed. But the risk is higher, and since the draft isn't all about upside but also about risk, a player drops.
 
WarriorofTime said:
Why did Riley Heidt go very end of 2nd round with a 1.426 PPG in WHL last year? Not that big and not an explosive skater? Catton is producing at a bit better of a clip but is his skating much better also?
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Why did Benson get picked at 13 when he's smaller and a poorer skater than Heidt? The answer is that they play different games and Benson's strengths and play style projected better at the next level. The same goes for Catton. Having watched Heidt from peewee to midget I can tell you Benson is a much better point of comparison for Catton than Heidt.
 
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dickiedunnwrotethis said:
Why did Benson get picked at 13 when he's smaller and a poorer skater than Heidt? The answer is that they play different games and Benson's strengths and play style projected better at the next level. The same goes for Catton. Having watched Heidt from peewee to midget I can tell you Benson is a much better point of comparison for Catton than Heidt.
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Ok.. but I asked a question, and if you've watched Heidt since Pee Wee I would appreciate your insight here. What does Catton do that is much more projectable than say, Heidt?
 
WarriorofTime said:
Ok.. but I asked a question, and if you've watched Heidt since Pee Wee I would appreciate your insight here. What does Catton do that is much more projectable than say, Heidt?
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No problem. The main difference is how well and how fast Catton processes the game. It's elite in this class. Other considerations would be stronger defensive commitment and more consistent compete level.
 
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I do not get the Cristall or the Heidt comparison. They have nothing in common other than playing in the WHL.

Catton more appropriate comparable but still lacking are Jarvis and Benson. Cristall is all about his edges and hands. Heidt is a good playmaker with average skating playing on the perimeter.

Catton is a transition monster with good all around game, great all around skills and elite vision.
 
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Marc the Habs Fan said:
2 goals and 2 assists so far tonight against a top notch Cougars team.
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They actually adjusted that to 2 and 1. 25/38 FO's.

I would say that Heidt is more than a "good" playmaker, also. He tied for the lead with Bedard in assists last year, and is 2nd this year. I still don't get why he wasn't picked till the end of the 2nd round.
 
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57special said:
This guy seems to have no weakness besides average size and strength?
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Yeah I think he’s above average at pretty much everything. If he can develop some of those traits to an elite level (maybe skating or puck skills), he can be a superstar, imo.
 
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