C Berkly Catton - Spokane Chiefs, WHL (2024, 8th, SEA)

[TLEH]

Your post made me think a little (from a Sharks POV), and I decided to troll through the old William Eklund thread before we drafted him 7OA in 2021. Controversy inbound (mildly)...

There were a LOT of people posting that Eklund should go top 5 in the draft, even some stumping for 1OA, calling him "the next Zetterberg" etc. Now, sure, he may end up there, and we're only 3 years out from that draft so it's still a bit early to evaluate. But I'm getting the same vibes with Catton. Extremely high IQ, a bit of a 2-way game (although some knocks on Catton's D-zone), "does all the little things right that project to the NHL and you have to be a bit of a hockey genius to understand," and a slightly undersized FWD whose "floor is as a 1st line scoring winger."

The Sharks boards are pleased with Eklund's development, he's pacing for 40 points in his first full season and he's even starting to play C with promise, but I think it's quite reasonable that he went 7OA and would have possibly been a bit disappointing if he had gone in the top 5. I doubt that CBJ would redo their Johnson pick, I doubt Detroit would redo their Edvinsson pick, definitely not NJD with Hughes, definitely not Power/Beniers/McTavish.

I'm sure there are a million ways to parse this out that Catton believers will say "bad comps / wrong / they're super different / etc" but at a high level, you generally see HFBoards *slightly* overvaluing a really highly skilled but slightly undersized forward. Catton seems super legit and he seems to have a bright future in the NHL but in the end, I'll be surprised if he's picked in the top 5, probably a happy pickup in the 6-10 range, just like Eklund was.

Its certainly an outcome that could happen with Catton. I'm not dismissing the comparison. I like him more than Kent Johnson personally but I get the point.

You have the flip side where a guy like Keller goes after Puljujarvi. There is no real calling card or easy mode to know what will happen. I'm not trying to be like elite-ist with the "hockey genius" commentary, but the reality is that a fair portion of people that discuss players on here boot up YouTube highlights and form opinions.

He's not 6'4 and he doesn't blow by people like McDavid so you really have to watch full games shift by shift to get an appreciation for the player. I'll take his floor and ceiling combination over a lot of other guys but thats just my opinion.

 

[1909]

Habs need to pick a good forwrd with their #1 pick this year. One of Lindstrom, Davidov, Catton, Helenius or Iginla would be welcomed.

 

[HuGort]

I don’t really think it’s likely that he actually goes in the top 5—personally I have Catton sixth in my ranking—but he’s absolutely talented enough to go top 5. The issue is just that between Celebrini, the three big D, Demidov, and Lindstrom there, I have a hard time seeing NHL teams taking Catton before any of them. Hell, I have fever dreams of Catton dropping to the Sharks at the Penguins’ pick the way Benson dropped to 13th last year. I had Benson ranked fifth in 2023 and stand by that ranking.

Habs are really tanking, I doubt they pass on Catton. Unless somebody slides

 

[WeThreeKings]

Why even have it if players won't play hard? Isn't it supposed to be a showcase for them in a setting where it's only Prospects (no 20 year olds, etc.) in a controlled setting?

It's not that they won't play hard, it's just that the setting isn't a great setting to make a definitive evaluation of the prospects. What they do in their leagues, international tournaments, on their teams over the full course of the year is a far more important evaluation point than this.

The reason why it is an event is that it is a money maker for the CHL, for one. A glorified all-star game is always going to attract viewers and attendance.

The on and off ice testing is a nice little data point to get mid-season before they get evaluated again at the combine.

They also bring the top prospects to a central location, so it's a great opportunity for teams and scouts to get to chat to them, etc.

So there's value in the process but if you are basing your evaluation on any prospect in the game vs. their entire body of work, it's a massive fail.

I don’t really think it’s likely that he actually goes in the top 5—personally I have Catton sixth in my ranking—but he’s absolutely talented enough to go top 5. The issue is just that between Celebrini, the three big D, Demidov, and Lindstrom there, I have a hard time seeing NHL teams taking Catton before any of them. Hell, I have fever dreams of Catton dropping to the Sharks at the Penguins’ pick the way Benson dropped to 13th last year. I had Benson ranked fifth in 2023 and stand by that ranking.

I don't think he goes in the top 5.. he's not going ahead of Celebrini, Demidov or Lindstrom on the forwards. You have a large number of defenseman who are going high, too.

I think we can see, like what you said, with Benson, where the player gets drafted slots lower than they realistically should because of the premium placed on size and defense by NHL scouts and GMs.

His range comfortably sits after Celebrini, Silayev, Levshunov, Demidov, Lindstrom, and Dickinson go. So anywhere from 7-13 would be his range. Remains to be seen if he goes ahead of Helenius, Iginla, Eiserman, Parekh and Yakemchuk.

 

[MS]

I feel like I actually really like Catton and feel that putting him in the 8-12 range as a future NHL 2C is a pretty complimentary viewpoint and so it's weird when people get triggered by takes like this.

 

[dickiedunnwrotethis]

I feel like I actually really like Catton and feel that putting him in the 8-12 range as a future NHL 2C is a pretty complimentary viewpoint and so it's weird when people get triggered by takes like this.

It's the nature of HFboards. I have Catton as my #3 pick, but realize it's just one man's opinion. No worries if you rank hm him lower.

 

[wetcoast]

It's not that they won't play hard, it's just that the setting isn't a great setting to make a definitive evaluation of the prospects. What they do in their leagues, international tournaments, on their teams over the full course of the year is a far more important evaluation point than this.

The reason why it is an event is that it is a money maker for the CHL, for one. A glorified all-star game is always going to attract viewers and attendance.

The on and off ice testing is a nice little data point to get mid-season before they get evaluated again at the combine.

They also bring the top prospects to a central location, so it's a great opportunity for teams and scouts to get to chat to them, etc.

So there's value in the process but if you are basing your evaluation on any prospect in the game vs. their entire body of work, it's a massive fail.

I don't think he goes in the top 5.. he's not going ahead of Celebrini, Demidov or Lindstrom on the forwards. You have a large number of defenseman who are going high, too.

Michov dropped to 7th last year why would Demidov not drop?

I think we can see, like what you said, with Benson, where the player gets drafted slots lower than they realistically should because of the premium placed on size and defense by NHL scouts and GMs.

Sadly what you say is true here but IMO Catton has a much better resume than Benson on draft day and probably projects better as well.

Catton isn't tiny he just needs to fill out.

His range comfortably sits after Celebrini, Silayev, Levshunov, Demidov, Lindstrom, and Dickinson go. So anywhere from 7-13 would be his range. Remains to be seen if he goes ahead of Helenius, Iginla, Eiserman, Parekh and Yakemchuk.

If he doesn't go in the top 5 then some team is going to get a steal and a couple of fan bases will look back and go WTF?

 

[MS]

It's the nature of HFboards. I have Catton as my #3 pick, but realize it's just one man's opinion. No worries if you rank hm him lower.

For sure.

And there's absolutely always the thing where draft watchers here get locked into THIS IS THE ONE RIGHT OPINION in terms of how the draft will go and have zero concept of how crazily different NHL teams' rankings would look if we could see them.

On Catton, there are only ~60 top-6 Cs in the NHL and only 3 or 4 from each draft, and saying that I think Catton is probably the 2nd or 3rd best C in this draft and a worthy top-10ish pick is to me a compliment. But he think he fits into that line of 'smallish talented 2C' guys stretching from Daymond Langkow through Cole Perfetti. And who knows, maybe I'm totally wrong.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Michove dropped to 7th last year why would Demidov not drop?

Shorter contract, Demidov is only signed for 1 more year and it sounds like he wants to come over right away.

 

[wetcoast]

Shorter contract, Demidov is only signed for 1 more year and it sounds like he wants to come over right away.

I really like Demidov but based on pure talent Michov shouldn't have dropped below 4 even with the contract status.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I really like Demidov but based on pure talent Michov shouldn't have dropped below 4 even with the contract status.

Yeah idk, not saying Demidov won't drop but if the concern is the non-hockey stuff I can see the difference.

 

[Zarzh]

Its certainly an outcome that could happen with Catton. I'm not dismissing the comparison. I like him more than Kent Johnson personally but I get the point.

You have the flip side where a guy like Keller goes after Puljujarvi. There is no real calling card or easy mode to know what will happen. I'm not trying to be like elite-ist with the "hockey genius" commentary, but the reality is that a fair portion of people that discuss players on here boot up YouTube highlights and form opinions.

He's not 6'4 and he doesn't blow by people like McDavid so you really have to watch full games shift by shift to get an appreciation for the player. I'll take his floor and ceiling combination over a lot of other guys but thats just my opinion.

If Edmonton takes Keller, they're still really sad about not taking Tkachuk or Sergachev, and probably further from a cup than they are now.

 

[TLEH]

If Edmonton takes Keller, they're still really sad about not taking Tkachuk or Sergachev, and probably further from a cup than they are now.

Keller is the better player in my comparison and how that relates to Catton vs more toolsy physical guys;

Not really discussing Edmonton.

 

[macbowes]

I wouldn't say he compares himself to them, but when asked who he models his game after in the NHL, he says Hughes, Keller, and Kaprizov, due to them not being the biggest or smallest, but still driving play with the puck, their IQ, and generally high-level skill.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

He has a lot of similarities to Hughes, but I think he can be even better. He’s at least an inch taller, he’s a better defensive player at the same age, and shoots it better at the same age.

 

[Petes2424]

A lot of eyes are going to be on him as the season winds down.

The numbers are there, the finishing is there, the internal drive is there, the transition speed is there, he thinks the game really well, etc, etc.

It’s the explosion/power to beat quality dmen 1 on 1, or lack thereof, and can he ever gain that core strength to play in the NHL, that’s gonna determine where he’s drafted?? He can go anywhere from 8-10OA to late 20s probably.

I try to catch 2-3 games in a row every 30 days or so, to see if anything’s changing, and just not seeing it yet. He’s the type of player you hope finds that next gear cause he’s really talented but he needs at least average power to take dmen wide, or to create space in traffic, and it’s still just not there yet.. If he’s able to even show he’s developing in the right direction, more teams will be all over him between 10-20.

If the draft were held tomorrow, he’d probably go 20-30 because of his all around skill, but be seen as a big risk (to score in the NHL) because of that core strength, and the lack of explosion in his offensive game. The other thing that hurts him vs some other skilled players is, even though he’s a really good defensive forward at the junior level, if he can’t gain weight/strength, it’s gonna be tough cracking an NHL lineup, even in the bottom 6. He’d be destined to be an Austin Czarnik type player. A really good pro player, just not in the NHL, because he will get pushed around quite a bit.

The good news is, he’s 18. That’s why, with his skill set, he’s still going in the 1st round. Can he drop like Cristall? Absolutely. Perfect example of a player with the same concerns. A player who’s gained little core strength his D+1 year btw…. His vision is probably too good to NOT be a 1st round pick though. Couple that with the lack of high-end NHL talent in the draft overall, can’t see him falling out of the 1st round, but it’s possible.

His bone and core measurements are going to be so important when teams make their final judgment on him. 160lbs without that pure explosion, is a major concern. Unfortunately for him. It’s why you just can’t compare him to players like Benson, Hughes, etc.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

A lot of eyes are going to be on him as the season winds down.

The numbers are there, the finishing is there, the internal drive is there, the transition speed is there, he thinks the game really well, etc, etc.

It’s the explosion/power to beat quality dmen 1 on 1, or lack thereof, and can he ever gain that core strength to play in the NHL, that’s gonna determine where he’s drafted?? He can go anywhere from 8-10OA to late 20s probably.

I try to catch 2-3 games in a row every 30 days or so, to see if anything’s changing, and just not seeing it yet. He’s the type of player you hope finds that next gear cause he’s really talented but he needs at least average power to take dmen wide, or to create space in traffic, and it’s still just not there yet.. If he’s able to even show he’s developing in the right direction, more teams will be all over him between 10-20.

If the draft were held tomorrow, he’d probably go 20-30 because of his all around skill, but be seen as a big risk (to score in the NHL) because of that core strength, and the lack of explosion in his offensive game. The other thing that hurts him vs some other skilled players is, even though he’s a really good defensive forward at the junior level, if he can’t gain weight/strength, it’s gonna be tough cracking an NHL lineup, even in the bottom 6. He’d be destined to be an Austin Czarnik type player. A really good pro player, just not in the NHL, because he will get pushed around quite a bit.

The good news is, he’s 18. That’s why, with his skill set, he’s still going in the 1st round. Can he drop like Cristall? Absolutely. Perfect example of a player with the same concerns. A player who’s gained little core strength his D+1 year btw…. His vision is probably too good to NOT be a 1st round pick though. Couple that with the lack of high-end NHL talent in the draft overall, can’t see him falling out of the 1st round, but it’s possible.

His bone and core measurements are going to be so important when teams make their final judgment on him. 160lbs without that pure explosion, is a major concern. Unfortunately for him. It’s why you just can’t compare him to players like Benson, Hughes, etc.

He's a great skater who can score, there's 0 chance he goes outside the top-15/20 let alone Round 1. Cristall fell because he's shorter and a worse skater then Catton, and is strictly a winger. Benson fell to 13 and Catton is a better skater than him. I see Catton going somewhere in the 8-13 range, there's just too many bigger players with diverse profiles ahead of him. GMs love going for big "projects" over smaller scorers.

Someone around 10th overall is going to get an amazing prospect here. Hence why I am very excited the Sharks own the PIT 1st round pick (top-10 protected) which is at 9th overall in total points right now and 14th in projected standings. He's right in that range.

 

[WeThreeKings]

He's a great skater who can score, there's 0 chance he goes outside the top-15/20 let alone Round 1. Cristall fell because he's shorter and a worse skater then Catton, and is strictly a winger. Benson fell to 13 and Catton is a better skater than him. I see Catton going somewhere in the 8-13 range, there's just too many bigger players with diverse profiles ahead of him. GMs love going for big "projects" over smaller scorers.

Someone around 10th overall is going to get an amazing prospect here. Hence why I am very excited the Sharks own the PIT 1st round pick (top-10 protected) which is at 9th overall in total points right now and 14th in projected standings. He's right in that range.

I don't think he's getting by Montreal if Lindstrom and Demidov are gone.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

If the draft were held tomorrow, he’d probably go 20-30 because of his all around skill, but be seen as a big risk (to score in the NHL) because of that core strength, and the lack of explosion in his offensive game. The other thing that hurts him vs some other skilled players is, even though he’s a really good defensive forward at the junior level, if he can’t gain weight/strength, it’s gonna be tough cracking an NHL lineup, even in the bottom 6. He’d be destined to be an Austin Czarnik type player. A really good pro player, just not in the NHL, because he will get pushed around quite a bit.

no way he goes outside top 15

 

[cheechoo]

Hard for me to put anyone over him besides Celebrini in good faith. PK/PP/ES + elite skating + one of the greatest DY seasons in the WHL this century after Bedard.

 

[gothegr8]

He has a lot of similarities to Hughes, but I think he can be even better. He’s at least an inch taller, he’s a better defensive player at the same age, and shoots it better at the same age.

Very interesting. I've been watching a lot of both on their DY, i don't see Catton anywhere close the level Hughes was and i certainly don't see how Catton could end up being better.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Very interesting. I've been watching a lot of both on their DY, i don't see Catton anywhere close the level Hughes was and i certainly don't see how Catton could end up being better.

Okay, fair enough. I explained my reasoning. I could see how he doesn’t become at the same level, and I can see how he does. I think he has the highest potential of any player in this draft.

 

[wetcoast]

He's a great skater who can score, there's 0 chance he goes outside the top-15/20 let alone Round 1. Cristall fell because he's shorter and a worse skater then Catton, and is strictly a winger. Benson fell to 13 and Catton is a better skater than him. I see Catton going somewhere in the 8-13 range, there's just too many bigger players with diverse profiles ahead of him. GMs love going for big "projects" over smaller scorers.

Someone around 10th overall is going to get an amazing prospect here. Hence why I am very excited the Sharks own the PIT 1st round pick (top-10 protected) which is at 9th overall in total points right now and 14th in projected standings. He's right in that range.

Man if the Sharks can snag him with their 2nd pick this draft it's going to go a long way in the rebuild and make the Sharks a very exciting team to watch around the 27-28 season.

 

[Petes2424]

no way he goes outside top 15

I’d like to say that’s true, but if he is unable to physically develop the strength to play in the NHL, he’ll be using all those skills in Europe or the AHL.

Like I said before, look at all the mock drafts from this time last year. Cristall was between 10-20 in all of them. They have the same issue, and teams won’t ignore that.

The list of players, who’s body structure just doesn’t allow them to gain enough strength to play in the NHL is endless. Dennis Cholowski is a great example. Lukas Cormier fell to the 3rd round because of it. When you’re small boned, and have a thin build, it’s an issue. It’s why the dman Colorado took last year, fell out of the round.

Just look at comparative players like Ryder Ritchie or the Connelly kid in the USHL. They have those 3rd and 4th gear power moves, that come from strength. Even though their height/weight is similar, their lower bodies are built like tanks. Teams will likely take them over him. Much easier to feel comfortable Tim they develop the required strength.

If he doesn’t show some strength improvement over the next two months, he’s going to be interesting to watch at the draft. Because this draft isn’t as skilled in the Top 50 like last year’s, I can’t see him falling out of the 1st round. Won’t be shocked though.

10-20 years ago, he’s a Top 10 pick probably. Team’s amateur scouting is so complex these days though, they can tell you what a kids been eating since he was 12.

Like I said, you root for him cause he’s so skilled, but there are some pretty big concerns.

 

[Bubbles]

I'm not sure why people keep using Cristall as a comparison. Other than having two legs and two arms, they are different type of players.