C Auston Matthews - ZSC Lions, NLA (2016 Draft) III

[Hunter Gathers]

Considering he's a better player than Laine, I would be shocked if he wasn't able to score more in the FEL. The FEL, while better, is not nearly at this laughably strong level that some Finns are holding it out to be. Matthews would be over a PPG in the FEL. Taking into account the scoring difference and if we pretend that Matthews would see his scoring go down linearly, he'd end up over a PPG on his current pace.

 

[Alexandrov]

Considering he's a better player than Laine, I would be shocked if he wasn't able to score more in the FEL. The FEL, while better, is not nearly at this laughably strong level that some Finns are holding it out to be. Matthews would be over a PPG in the FEL. Taking into account the scoring difference and if we pretend that Matthews would see his scoring go down linearly, he'd end up over a PPG on his current pace.

Really doubt that. Only one player is scoring at a PPG rate in Liiga right now.

 

[LoveNHL]

Considering he's a better player than Laine, I would be shocked if he wasn't able to score more in the FEL. The FEL, while better, is not nearly at this laughably strong level that some Finns are holding it out to be. Matthews would be over a PPG in the FEL. Taking into account the scoring difference and if we pretend that Matthews would see his scoring go down linearly, he'd end up over a PPG on his current pace.

Over 1.0 PPG in FEL is not easy. Few makes it.

 

[Ippenator]

Considering he's a better player than Laine, I would be shocked if he wasn't able to score more in the FEL. The FEL, while better, is not nearly at this laughably strong level that some Finns are holding it out to be. Matthews would be over a PPG in the FEL. Taking into account the scoring difference and if we pretend that Matthews would see his scoring go down linearly, he'd end up over a PPG on his current pace.

What on earth makes Matthews clearly better than Laine for you, except him being an American and you being an American too?

Their points in FEL and NLA don't really give any information on their possible talent differences, as the leagues are so different with scoring and playstyle. Just believe it, it is really HARD to score in FEL nowadays. The playing is so defensive and the goalies are so good that for me in fact it is a quite boring league to follow. At least super talents like Laine, Pulju and Aho make it a bit more interesting nowadays.

The only more straightforward comparison that can be made between Matthews and Laine is their scoring for their national teams. Laine beats Matthews in goalscoring with 29 against 19. In WJC Laine beat also Matthews in point scoring, although their goals were tied there with 7 per each of them. But more significantly, Laine crushed Matthews with his performance in the medal games and against the toughest opponents, while Matthews choked in the big games and scored at least 5 of his 7 goals against weaker teams like the Swiss and the Czhecs, in total slaughters that USA had against those teams.

Also all the gameplay footage that I have seen of Matthews's playing this season convinces me more and more that he is not as spectacular prospect as most Americans like to think. Too many easy and soft fluke goals for him in NLA, which really shows how much easier it is to score in that league than in FEL.

He is good yes, especially for his age, but he doesn't seem to have any really spectacular part in his game, unlike Laine who has a spectacular shot, silky smooth hands and huge size and strength, especially for his age. In my opinion the only things that Matthews has clearly for his advantage are him being a center and an American. If he was a European center he wouldn't definitely be considered as the concensus 1st pick, but rather as 2nd or 3rd pick, but being a North American has always been a huge benefit in the NHL, so why wouldn't it be that again this year?

 

[Loffer]

If Matthews had signed with HIFK instead of Zurich I bet he would be a PPG player in the FEL also. The kid is such an elite hockey mind.

But then again, Laine should be, too. And he should crack points left and right the rest of the season. Let's see.

 

[LoveNHL]

What on earth makes Matthews clearly better than Laine for you, except him being an American and you being an American too?

Their points in FEL and NLA don't really give any information on their possible talent differences, as the leagues are so different with scoring and playstyle. Just believe it, it is really HARD to score in FEL nowadays. The playing is so defensive and the goalies are so good that for me in fact it is a quite boring league to follow. At least super talents like Laine, Pulju and Aho make it a bit more interesting nowadays.

The only more straightforward comparison that can be made between Matthews and Laine is their scoring for their national teams. Laine beats Matthews in goalscoring with 29 against 19. In WJC Laine beat also Matthews in point scoring, although their goals were tied there with 7 per each of them. But more significantly, Laine crushed Matthews with his performance in the medal games and against the toughest opponents, while Matthews choked in the big games and scored at least 5 of his 7 goals against weaker teams like the Swiss and the Czhecs, in total slaughters that USA had against those teams.

Also all the gameplay footage that I have seen of Matthews's playing this season convinces me more and more that he is not as spectacular prospect as most Americans like to think. Too many easy and soft fluke goals for him in NLA, which really shows how much easier it is to score in that league than in FEL.

He is good yes, especially for his age, but he doesn't seem to have any really spectacular part in his game, unlike Laine who has a spectacular shot, silky smooth hands and huge size and strength, especially for his age. In my opinion the only things that Matthews has clearly for his advantage are him being a center and an American. If he was a European center he wouldn't definitely be considered as the concensus 1st pick, but rather as 2nd or 3rd pick, but being a North American has always been a huge benefit in the NHL, so why wouldn't it be that again this year?

The games I saw with Matthews were all impressive despite not producing points. He made a lot of high class setups. I consider Matthews as the first pick. I am also a Finn and have seen Laine quite a lot.

 

[Ippenator]

The games I saw with Matthews were all impressive despite not producing points. He made a lot of high class setups. I consider Matthews as the first pick. I am also a Finn and have seen Laine quite a lot.

I'm not saying that he played badly in general. But still, 5 of his 7 goals in the butcherings against the Czhecs and the Swiss, and then he was totally out of the picture in the semi-final against the Russians, and couldn't even get a single point in the bronze medal match where USA scored tons of goals as a team. Before that game some USA players said in interviews that they are definitely motivated to get still a medal from the tournament. Didn't see this kind of motivation from Matthews, but from most of the other team USA guys for sure. Matthews strikes me so far as the regular season's point getter in the easy games, but whom disappears out of the picture and goes into the shadows, when the toughest and most meaningful games start.

Hopefuly he will prove me wrong though. There is way too many of this type of praised and hyped players in the NHL already. And too many fans who just see the points and keep praising this kind of players as something truly special. Then starts the playoffs and Toews, Crosby, Kane, Doughty, Keith and other true hockey players bulldoze over the regular season softies, if they even get to the playoffs...

 

[Juxtaposer]

I'm not saying that he played badly in general. But still, 5 of his 7 goals in the butcherings against the Czhecs and the Swiss, and then he was totally out of the picture in the semi-final against the Russians, and couldn't even get a single point in the bronze medal match where USA scored tons of goals as a team. Before that game some USA players said in interviews that they are definitely motivated to get still a medal from the tournament. Didn't see this kind of motivation from Matthews, but from most of the other team USA guys for sure. Matthews strikes me so far as the regular season's point getter in the easy games, but whom disappears out of the picture and goes into the shadows, when the toughest and most meaningful games start.

Hopefuly he will prove me wrong though. There is way too many of this type of praised and hyped players in the NHL already. And too many fans who just see the points and keep praising this kind of players as something truly special. Then starts the playoffs and Toews, Crosby, Kane, Doughty, Keith and other true hockey players bulldoze over the regular season softies, if they even get to the playoffs...

Serious question, have you seen Matthews play outside of the WJC?

 

[Ippenator]

Serious question, have you seen Matthews play outside of the WJC?

Yes, a lot of footage of his playing in NLA also. I based my comments on both, WJC and the footage from NLA.

 

[Ippenator]

The games I saw with Matthews were all impressive despite not producing points. He made a lot of high class setups. I consider Matthews as the first pick. I am also a Finn and have seen Laine quite a lot.

Btw, I have dual citizenship, Finnish and USA. But I still see Laine as the bigger talent of these two. OK, lived most of my life in Finland, but born in the USA, and lived there for a while as an adult also.

 

[wings5]

Of course you would at least want him to be able to do that. It's a totally different story if he could really do it. I very strongly doubt that he could get much more points per game in FEL than Laine. If even that many. In my opinion Barkov is quite clearly a more promising player than Matthews. And I think that Laine has even more potential than Barkov. At least in being a high scoring forward. Each one of them will be a star player in the future. I just strongly believe that Laine will be the biggest star of them.

Barkov over Matthews interesting to say the least but you can not even compare them right now. Some players have the ability to rise to the competition level and I believe Matthews would do that in the FEL. These leagues are all different though, I mean Nylander was about PPG in SHL which is considered stronger than FEL however, you'll find many who would pick Matthews over Nylander.

 

[scipio]

Matthews strikes me so far as the regular season's point getter in the easy games, but whom disappears out of the picture and goes into the shadows, when the toughest and most meaningful games start.

So you say you watched a lot of NLA footage. Do you mind telling us where you watch these games?

Anyways, Matthews does not exclusively score against the weak teams. In fact he scored quite regularly important goals against teams that we would consider top teams. We will see how he develops in the playoffs, but I don't see a reason why he should not continue scoring.

How about Laine? Did he only score against the top teams? As far as I can tell that's not the case.

 

[YARR123]

Barkov over Matthews interesting to say the least but you can not even compare them right now. Some players have the ability to rise to the competition level and I believe Matthews would do that in the FEL. These leagues are all different though, I mean Nylander was about PPG in SHL which is considered stronger than FEL however, you'll find many who would pick Matthews over Nylander.

This was the year after his draft year though, there's a big difference. Also Matthews is not "just" PPG, he has 36 points in 28 games, that's 1.28PPG. Also a big difference.

If just statistically speaking, it's clear that what Matthews is doing is more impressive than what Laine is.

1. Yes, Liiga is slightly tougher, imo this is because there's more depth and a better culture of playing a team game. That said, however, NLA is a very good league, there's a lot of high quality players, some of which would not even piss toward the direction of Liiga. Also NLA teams are able to keep some of the best domestic players since they can afford big paychecks. The difference between Liiga and NLA is getting smaller and smaller. If anything, one could begin to argue that NLA is surpassing Liiga in quality, recent results in CHL games dispute this argument for now, though.

2. Yes, Laine is younger. It's a factor for sure, but not a massive one.

3. Liiga is a lower scoring league. Again, a factor, but not enough to even out the difference.

4. Laine's production is nothing we haven't seen lately. It is roughly in the mould of recent 1st round Finns. Therefore, statistically speaking, it's tough to argue that he is doing better than Matthews.

Bottom line is this imo:
- Matthews is one of the best, if not the best player in the league
- Laine is one of the best players on his team
- Difference between leagues and their age isn't big enough to even it out.

However, all things considered, it would seem that Laine's accolades aren't that far from Matthews either.

 

[Ippenator]

So you say you watched a lot of NLA footage. Do you mind telling us where?

YouTube is always a good place to go when you want to check any footage on any hyped player. I haven't seen full matches from NLA, but at least all his goals and many other plays too. In WJC I saw all the games he played in from start to finish.

He has been good in what I saw, but by no means spectacular, or better than Laine. I still want to emphasize that Laine plays with offensively very average linemates who don't have practically any playmaking skills. They are very defensive players who are not even close to the offensive class of Matthews's linemates. Why Tapola (Tappara's coach) plays Laine with such linemates, is a mystery to me. Could have to do maybe with him wanting to teach a young super talent to be humble and teach him how to play really well defensively. Otherwise I don't see any logical point in playing him with such low skilled offensive players. The team can't really use Laine's strengths when he is playing with this kind of linemates.

Laine's point production is in fact very impressive when taken to account what kind of linemates he has had to play with the whole season. Aho and Pulju are already clearly offensively better players than Laine's FEL linemates are, so no wonder that his point production was so much better in WJC.

 

[LoveNHL]

This was the year after his draft year though, there's a big difference. Also Matthews is not "just" PPG, he has 36 points in 28 games, that's 1.28PPG. Also a big difference.

If just statistically speaking, it's clear that what Matthews is doing is more impressive than what Laine is.

1. Yes, Liiga is slightly tougher, imo this is because there's more depth and a better culture of playing a team game. That said, however, NLA is a very good league, there's a lot of high quality players, some of which would not even piss toward the direction of Liiga. Also NLA teams are able to keep some of the best domestic players since they can afford big paychecks. The difference between Liiga and NLA is getting smaller and smaller. If anything, one could begin to argue that NLA is surpassing Liiga in quality, recent results in CHL games dispute this argument for now, though.

2. Yes, Laine is younger. It's a factor for sure, but not a massive one.

3. Liiga is a lower scoring league. Again, a factor, but not enough to even out the difference.

4. Laine's production is nothing we haven't seen lately. It is roughly in the mould of recent 1st round Finns. Therefore, statistically speaking, it's tough to argue that he is doing better than Matthews.

Bottom line is this imo:
- Matthews is one of the best, if not the best player in the league
- Laine is one of the best players on his team
- Difference between leagues and their age isn't big enough to even it out.

However, all things considered, it would seem that Laine's accolades aren't that far from Matthews either.

you should also take into account consistency. There Matthews is ahead of Laine. Then you should look into development curve where Laine is ahead of anyone.

 

[Stavros]

. We will see how he develops in the playoffs, but I don't see a reason why he should not continue scoring.

that reason would be the that Matthews shooting percentage so far is freakin 22%! That is an absurd number come on, in long term his scoring pace should be maybe half of what it is now. Thats 96 goals with 21 shots, he has obviously been very lucky.

 

[scipio]

that reason would be the that Matthews shooting percentage so far is freakin 22%! That is an absurd number come on, in long term his scoring pace should be maybe half of what it is now. Thats 96 goals with 21 shots, he has obviously been very lucky.

That actually is quite impressive

However he is not the only one with these kind of numbers.

 

[YARR123]

that reason would be the that Matthews shooting percentage so far is freakin 22%! That is an absurd number come on, in long term his scoring pace should be maybe half of what it is now. Thats 96 goals with 21 shots, he has obviously been very lucky.

22% does seems very likely to be unsustainable. However, I don't think it needs to be as low as you think. Elite players can sustain close to 20% efficiency, and of course the % is lower with higher shooting volume. Right now he has 21 goals in 28 games off of 96 shots. If for the rest of the season he scores at a 0.5gpg rate, his season totals will still be very impressive, and 0.5 is very sustainable for him at this level, IMO.

22% isn't that outrageous though, it's not like it's 35%.

 

[Stavros]

ok, its not that outrageous but still a big number. Last season NLA top 10 scorers typical % was 13, during lockout season a typical NHL forward % was 16. 11 seems to be too low for him, didnt expect for the percentages in NLA to be that high. Atm 3 of ten top scorers seem to have shooting percentage of over 20.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

that reason would be the that Matthews shooting percentage so far is freakin 22%! That is an absurd number come on, in long term his scoring pace should be maybe half of what it is now. Thats 96 goals with 21 shots, he has obviously been very lucky.

He's a pretty selective shooter with a deadly accurate shot. Plus his playmaking skills make everyone else on the ice just as dangerous. It's reasonable to expect he'd be a 15-20% shooter. So 22% really isn't all that crazy.

 

[Stavros]

He's a pretty selective shooter with a deadly accurate shot. Plus his playmaking skills make everyone else on the ice just as dangerous. It's reasonable to expect he'd be a 15-20% shooter. So 22% really isn't all that crazy.

Point is that shooting percentages between players do not differ all that much between players in long run. Ovechkin has career shooting percentage of 12,4, Hossa has 12,3 and Kovalchuk 14,1 while NHL average being 9,1, and among forwards 10,8. NLA avereage percen is around 8,5 so 22 is at least a bit crazy.

 

[Ippenator]

Point is that shooting percentages between players do not differ all that much between players in long run. Ovechkin has career shooting percentage of 12,4, Hossa has 12,3 and Kovalchuk 14,1 while NHL average being 9,1, and among forwards 10,8. NLA avereage percen is around 8,5 so 22 is at least a bit crazy.

It clearly shows that it is much easier to score and get points in NLA than in other European top leagues. Much less defensive hockey and not as steady goaltending as in other European top leagues.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

I love all of the grasping at straws here to try and knock Matthews down by Finnish posters in order to somehow justify putting their players above. The difference between scoring in the leagues is 22%. It's not likely that Matthews would see his scoring drop linearly. He's an incredible player even right now. He'd be above a PPG right now in then FEL, which is only slightly above the NLA overall.

 

[Beukeboom]

I love all of the grasping at straws here to try and knock Matthews down by Finnish posters in order to somehow justify putting their players above. The difference between scoring in the leagues is 22%. It's not likely that Matthews would see his scoring drop linearly. He's an incredible player even right now. He'd be above a PPG right now in then FEL, which is only slightly above the NLA overall.

Also Matthews is most likely to deliver from start. Barkov, Granlund, Armia, no one has delivered from day one. Finnish players have a 2-3 year adjustment period and some of those were bigger/equal talents with better previous stats than Laine or Puljujarvi.

The finns have delivered in WJC this year (not last) and they haven't been great in the finnish league. Matthews has set records and delivered at every instance. On small ice on big ice, vs kids and vs men. He is a more safe bet. He plays in a mature way controlling the game. Laine plays with an intensive all guns blazing young game and those players have a harder time adjusting to experienced defensmen in NHL.

Having Marc Crawford as a coach has surely made him as prepared for NHL as you possibly can.

 

[Stavros]

It's not likely that Matthews would see his scoring drop linearly.

this is just something you like to assume, your statement has as much value as me saying that his scoring phase would likely drop more than 22%