C Auston Matthews - ZSC Lions, NLA (2016 Draft) III

[Sens of Anarchy]

please come to montreal we need a savior

on my way Hulleux

 

[BusQuets]

Better than Eichel

I agree. Matthews uses his teammates better imo.

 

[Sojourn]

Except Laine will most likely be better and Aho and Pulju will most likely be at the same level with Matthews. I believe also that Teräväinen might have a chance to be at least close there, if he can gain much more strength and improves his skating. Most likely he will not reach that level, but I don't still believe it is totally impossible. I don't believe though that Granlund will ever reach the level that Matthews will most probably reach. At least in the NHL and the small rinks he doesn't have enough of potential. But I believe he will still be one of the best players in international tournaments that will be held in Europe, as he is still one of the better players in the world, when playing in the bigger European rinks.

I think your definition of "most likely" is different than mine.

And everyone else's.

 

[Battle Lin]

theres some toews, benn, and kopitar in this kid...looks like a legit 1C with size

he has a big strong athletic body, can skate and explode...great puck handling skills, great passing and vision, and has a great shot

 

[Ippenator]

I think your definition of "most likely" is different than mine.

And everyone else's.

Two words for you: Alexandre Daigle.

 

[Spade]

Two words for you: Alexandre Daigle.

You're going to bring up someone from 23 years ago to prove your point? Nice strawman's argument.

It'll take a lot of development for anyone else in this draft just to catch up to where Matthews is at this point in time, and that includes the Finnish players. That isn't an insult to their abilities, it's just that Matthews is that damn good. All the little things he does to make plays just shows that he's got an elite ability to think the game. The ways he plays and changes the angles of his shot, the way he pulls attention to himself only to pass off the puck to wide open teammates....his ability to process the moment and make changes is easily the most impressive trait he has, and quite frankly he's even better than Eichel at that. If he had Eichel's raw physical tools, it really wouldn't be close between the two of them.

This guy is going to be a franchise cornerstone without a doubt. Whoever drafts him is going to be very lucky.

 

[Beukeboom]

23 goals in 30 games now as an 18 year old. Tied #1 in the league with a guy who has played 14 (!) games more. That is some number one draft pick stuff.

With all respect to the fact that the finnish league might have a better depth but I checked the scoring race there and barely recognized a single player? 0.3ppg AHL'rs were in the top 10 closing in on ppg in Finland. So the finnish guys that said Matthews wouldn't have a chance on performing as well in the finnish league might be off imo.

My bet is he would lead that league in goals too. In Switzerland he competes with many old NHL'rs.

Any team that doesn't draft Matthews as number one should probably contemplate whether their scouts are right for the job.

 

[Ippenator]

You're going to bring up someone from 23 years ago to prove your point? Nice strawman's argument.

It'll take a lot of development for anyone else in this draft just to catch up to where Matthews is at this point in time, and that includes the Finnish players. That isn't an insult to their abilities, it's just that Matthews is that damn good. All the little things he does to make plays just shows that he's got an elite ability to think the game. The ways he plays and changes the angles of his shot, the way he pulls attention to himself only to pass off the puck to wide open teammates....his ability to process the moment and make changes is easily the most impressive trait he has, and quite frankly he's even better than Eichel at that. If he had Eichel's raw physical tools, it really wouldn't be close between the two of them.

This guy is going to be a franchise cornerstone without a doubt. Whoever drafts him is going to be very lucky.

Sorry guys, but there is no proof of Matthews being clearly the best talent in this draft. If he would be really so clearly the best player in this draft he would have been able to outscore the Finns and anyone else clearly at the WJC. if he was so much better and the clearly best prospect, he would have been able to carry the otherwise superstrong team USA easily to the final and to the gold medals. I mean come on, Russia was not really that great team after all. And Finland beat them with a team of a few really big junior stars, but most of the team was pretty average. Matthews was incapable to do either. It was his chance to shine and to prove that he is head above all the other junior prospects. He got the chance to do it, but he couldn't prove that. There was clearly better players in the tournament. If you can't perform better than that and others outperform you in this once in a lifetime opportunity, then you just are not head above the others. A great prospect, but not a clear number one otherwise, but because of being a center and strong North American homerism.

And Matthews's stats in NLA are definitely not really more impressive than Laine's stats are in FEL, as NLA is really defensively and by goaltending clearly a weaker league than FEL. But only time will really tell us the real answers. Lets see about it in a couple of years...

 

[Ippenator]

You're going to bring up someone from 23 years ago to prove your point? Nice strawman's argument.

Two words for you: Nail Yakupov.

 

[Beukeboom]

Sorry guys, but there is no proof of Matthews being clearly the best talent in this draft. If he would be really so clearly the best player in this draft he would have been able to outscore the Finns and anyone else clearly at the WJC. if he was so much better and the clearly best prospect, he would have been able to carry the otherwise superstrong team USA easily to the final and to the gold medals. I mean come on, Russia was not really that great team after all. And Finland beat them with a team of a few really big junior stars, but most of the team was pretty average. Matthews was incapable to do either. It was his chance to shine and to prove that he is head above all the other junior prospects. He got the chance to do it, but he couldn't prove that. There was clearly better players in the tournament. If you can't perform better than that and others outperform you in this once in a lifetime opportunity, then you just are not head above the others. A great prospect, but not a clear number one otherwise, but because of being a center and strong North American homerism.

And Matthews's stats in NLA are definitely not really more impressive than Laine's stats are in FEL, as NLA is really defensively and by goaltending clearly a weaker league than FEL. But only time will really tell us the real answers. Lets see about it in a couple of years...

The scoring race competition in NLA is way tougher then in Finland. PPG aside he is performing much better then the Finns.

And to your initial statement, no. Crosby didn't outperform everyone in WJC and he is the player of a whole generation. So your WJC foundness is silly.

 

[sayheykid]

Two words for you: Nail Yakupov.

Four words for you: You're trying too hard.

 

[Ippenator]

Four words for you: You're trying too hard.

Yes mate, always try hard and never give up. Everything is about attitude.

 

[thomast]

23 goals in 30 games now as an 18 year old. Tied #1 in the league with a guy who has played 14 (!) games more. That is some number one draft pick stuff.

With all respect to the fact that the finnish league might have a better depth but I checked the scoring race there and barely recognized a single player? 0.3ppg AHL'rs were in the top 10 closing in on ppg in Finland. So the finnish guys that said Matthews wouldn't have a chance on performing as well in the finnish league might be off imo.

My bet is he would lead that league in goals too. In Switzerland he competes with many old NHL'rs.

Any team that doesn't draft Matthews as number one should probably contemplate whether their scouts are right for the job.

I agree that Matthews had most impressive season from all draft eligible and is favourite to go first. But when you take age into account and the fact even when he had really good tournament at WJC's he got outplayed by 2 younger guys. I don't think Puljujärvi should be in the discussion with these two guys but talent wise Laine is definetly up there. Matthews happens to be C and plays complete game so he is more attractive to pick #1.

Martin St. Pierre was 100 point player(well 99 points in 65 games) in the AHL and was barely 0.5PPG in Liiga. Numbers doesen't always translate like that how you suggest. Everyone should be aware of that.

Matthews have just special season no doubt and i'm not here to downplay it. But so has Laine when we consider his age and the level of league. These two players are both special talents in their own way. To me it's pure ignorance to claim that Matthews only scores alot because he plays in NLA which is weaker league than Liiga or Matthews is by far most talented player of this draft. No... they both are performing well and are close in talent. In 5 years Laine could be very well better of these two players or vice versa.

 

[Beukeboom]

I agree that Matthews had most impressive season from all draft eligible and is favourite to go first. But when you take age into account and the fact even when he had really good tournament at WJC's he got outplayed by 2 younger guys. I don't think Puljujärvi should be in the discussion with these two guys but talent wise Laine is definetly up there. Matthews happens to be C and plays complete game so he is more attractive to pick #1.

Martin St. Pierre was 100 point player(well 99 points in 65 games) in the AHL and was barely 0.5PPG in Liiga. Numbers doesen't always translate like that how you suggest. Everyone should be aware of that.

Matthews have just special season no doubt and i'm not here to downplay it. But so has Laine when we consider his age and the level of league. These two players are both special talents in their own way. To me it's pure ignorance to claim that Matthews only scores alot because he plays in NLA which is weaker league than Liiga or Matthews is by far most talented player of this draft. No... they both are performing well and are close in talent. In 5 years Laine could be very well better of these two players or vice versa.

What I meant with AHL'ers in the top 10 in Finland was mostly to prove my point that Matthews has tougher competition in the scoring race. He has some old NHL'ers and many really good ex-KHL players. In Finland there is a mixture of AHLrs that weren't anywhere near the top there (or to play a game in NHL fort that matter) and mostly finnish players that are either old like Kallio or never really left. So I am not saying he would score the same in the finnish league that is tougher defensively but just that the competition for the top scoring positions is easier.

I haven't seen Laine enough to say too much. But my guess is Laine's best potential is top 10 players in NHL but never top 5. His worst outcome could be second line winger or something like that. Jussi Jokinen or something. Matthews top potential is top 3 in NHL and his worst is probably a solid number one center but maybe not top 10 centers in the league. So in my opinion Matthews has a higher top potential and a less bad "worst potential".

But if Matthews only reaches his bottom potential and Laine reaches his highest one then Laine would have been a better pick. But you draft based on probability, hence Matthews is a safer bet.

And yet again about this WJC frenzy. One has to take into account that Laine and Puljujarvi played togehther and with Aho. They also played on big ice in front of their homecrowd. That does a lot. Even so Matthews was tied number 1 in goals with Laine.

 

[jaa]

I actually see it much differently. Matthews is the safest pick of the draft, he is just so complete in every area of the game against men and those numbers are scary. It is almost certain he will be the #1 pick, it depends which team picks him and how well Laine will play the rest of the season.

But I think the previous poster is selling Laine's potential a bit low. I mean, his wristshot and one timer are one of a kind-ish, Stammer/Ovie/Kovalchuck tier traits. On top of that, he has combination of size and hands that is super rare among prospects. At wjc he scored always when the whole team was lacking it, definitely clutch player and it goes hand on hand with his attitude.

Also Laine is almost a year younger than Matthews. The best thing of the whole thing is that Laine is still so raw as a prospect and there is lot of room for improvement. Getting those first strides better and improving physicality are the obvious areas which he will improve. I think Laine totally has the tools and potential to become top5 player or atleast forward in the NHL by the time he gets to his prime.

 

[oStealthKiller*]

Laine has the best potential out of the draft with Matthews not far behind, but many teams and scouts will have him 1 because of being a center.

 

[wings5]

I agree that Matthews had most impressive season from all draft eligible and is favourite to go first. But when you take age into account and the fact even when he had really good tournament at WJC's he got outplayed by 2 younger guys. I don't think Puljujärvi should be in the discussion with these two guys but talent wise Laine is definetly up there. Matthews happens to be C and plays complete game so he is more attractive to pick #1.

Martin St. Pierre was 100 point player(well 99 points in 65 games) in the AHL and was barely 0.5PPG in Liiga. Numbers doesen't always translate like that how you suggest. Everyone should be aware of that.

Matthews have just special season no doubt and i'm not here to downplay it. But so has Laine when we consider his age and the level of league. These two players are both special talents in their own way. To me it's pure ignorance to claim that Matthews only scores alot because he plays in NLA which is weaker league than Liiga or Matthews is by far most talented player of this draft. No... they both are performing well and are close in talent. In 5 years Laine could be very well better of these two players or vice versa.

You can also pick out David MacIntyre who was an average AHL player yet is almost at ppg in the FEL. Yeah sorry theres no way he would outperform Matthews. Same with Eric Perrin. Matthews has already played with elite players in the WC. It's fine if you guys want to underrate him.

 

[Spade]

Laine has the best potential out of the draft with Matthews not far behind, but many teams and scouts will have him 1 because of being a center.

Also because he's NHL ready earlier than anyone else in this draft.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I was been disappointed in what I watched of him at the WJC. He put up some points and is very skilled, but his play in a few of the games against the better teams wasn't that good. He wasn't able to take over the game, like you'd expect out of a generational player or a very good 1C. Even when Eichel struggled last year at the WJC's, at least he was trying and you could notice him on the ice. Matthews wasn't very noticeable, especially in that game against Russia.

He's obviously very good, and I think he'll be a 1C, but I was expecting him to elevate his game this year. For me, he's behind McDavid and Eichel from last year. I also have him behind Laine from this draft year. Maybe I'm just putting too much into the WJC's, but what should I put stock into. Laine's also doing very well in a not so good league. At the WJC's, I was just a lot more impressed with Laine.

 

[Spade]

I was been disappointed in what I watched of him at the WJC. He put up some points and is very skilled, but his play in a few of the games against the better teams wasn't that good. He wasn't able to take over the game, like you'd expect out of a generational player. Even when Eichel struggled to do that last year at the WJC's, at least he was trying and you could notice him on the ice. Matthews wasn't very noticeable, especially in that game against Russia.

He's obviously very good, and I think he'll be a 1C, but I was expecting him to elevate his game this year. For me, he's behind McDavid and Eichel from last year. I also have him behind Laine from this draft year.

I think you're misinterpreting Matthews' hype a little bit. He's always been a cerebral player, not a puck hound, and besides his size doesn't have the kind of pure athleticism that makes him a superman like Eichel.

If you're expecting a "take the puck and rush it end to end for a game winner" type of player, you're in the wrong thread. Matthews takes what is given to him, with the caveat being that he's also a sneaky mother****** who will fool defenders and goalies into giving him an opening to make a pass or take a shot.

Matthews will never look as good as Eichel from that viewpoint, because Eichel is a forceful player who will bulldoze through plays. He gives off a lot of energy. But in some respects Matthews is better at picking his spots, which is why he can look unnoticeable while playing productive (Eichel looks outstanding regardless of his production, which is both good and bad).

Matthews tries hard, but he's all about making the efficient play. If that means making a short relay pass to his winger instead of breaking through the defenders alone, so be it (which he does all the time to great effect). That shows an innate understanding of the game and an excellent ability to "see" the play developing, the kind of anticipation top players tend to have. That's not something that looks fancy, but it's just really effective hockey.

I think people often confuse effort for performance, but when scouts watch Matthews, they see a guy with some killer instincts, in the sense that every play he makes is geared towards creating a scoring chance, whether that be immediately or shortly down the line. It's hard to play against a guy who keeps putting the puck in places where your defense doesn't want it.

Those types of guys don't "elevate", they're just quietly effective. Which is fine, as long as he's contributing to wins.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think you're misinterpreting Matthews' hype a little bit. He's always been a cerebral player, not a puck hound, and besides his size doesn't have the kind of pure athleticism that makes him a superman like Eichel.

If you're expecting a "take the puck and rush it end to end for a game winner" type of player, you're in the wrong thread. Matthews takes what is given to him, with the caveat being that he's also a sneaky mother****** who will fool defenders and goalies into giving him an opening to make a pass or take a shot.

Matthews will never look as good as Eichel from that viewpoint, because Eichel is a forceful player who will bulldoze through plays. He gives off a lot of energy. But in some respects Matthews is better at picking his spots, which is why he can look unnoticeable while playing productive (Eichel looks outstanding regardless of his production, which is both good and bad).

Matthews tries hard, but he's all about making the efficient play. If that means making a short relay pass to his winger instead of breaking through the defenders alone, so be it (which he does all the time to great effect). That shows an innate understanding of the game and an excellent ability to "see" the play developing, the kind of anticipation top players tend to have. That's not something that looks fancy, but it's just really effective hockey.

I think people often confuse effort for performance, but when scouts watch Matthews, they see a guy with some killer instincts, in the sense that every play he makes is geared towards creating a scoring chance, whether that be immediately or shortly down the line. It's hard to play against a guy who keeps putting the puck in places where your defense doesn't want it.

Those types of guys don't "elevate", they're just quietly effective. Which is fine, as long as he's contributing to wins.

How many of the best 1C's in the NHL play that type of game? Most of them are a lot more flashy like McDavid and Eichel are. There are some who aren't incredibly flashy like Kopitar or Toews, but they have Selke caliber two way games and intangibles.

I think Matthews is good, I'm just not sure he's going to be anything more than the Tavares or Stamkos tier, meanwhile I think McDavid, Eichel and Laine have the potential to get to the Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin tier. Thats not a stylistic comparison, just the level of play that I think they can reach.

 

[Hagged]

You can also pick out David MacIntyre who was an average AHL player yet is almost at ppg in the FEL. Yeah sorry theres no way he would outperform Matthews. Same with Eric Perrin. Matthews has already played with elite players in the WC. It's fine if you guys want to underrate him.

Check out Petteri Nummelin's stats from NLA. There's no way right? Players games transfer differently to different leagues. In MacIntyre's case he seems like the stereotypical big ice player, a Granlund lite. Couple of seasons in FEL he can jump to any Euro league with success (SEL being the only question mark).

 

[Spade]

How many of the best 1C's in the NHL play that type of game? Most of them are a lot more flashy like McDavid and Eichel are. There are some who aren't incredibly flashy like Kopitar or Toews, but they have Selke caliber two way games and intangibles.

I think Matthews is good, I'm just not sure he's going to be anything more than the Tavares or Stamkos tier, meanwhile I think McDavid, Eichel and Laine have the potential to get to the Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin tier. Thats not a stylistic comparison, just the level of play that I think they can reach.

Well, let's throw together a quick list of the players who most people reasonably assume would be 1Cs right now as well as some other highly touted but debatable centers (borderline guys or young players with potential or both).

Getzlaf
Bergeron
Krejci (maybe)
O'Reilly
Eichel (maybe)
Monahan (maybe)
E. Staal (maybe)
Toews
MacKinnon (maybe)
Duchene
Seguin
Zetterberg
Datsyuk
McDavid (maybe)
Barkov (maybe)
Kopitar
Carter (maybe)
Koivu (maybe)
Johansen
Tavares
Turris (maybe)
Giroux
Crosby
Malkin
Thornton
Stamkos
H. Sedin
Backstrom
Kuznetsov (maybe)
Little (maybe)

Now, let's take out all the "flashy" players, the kind who in generic terms are considered exciting players to watch, and leave those who are considered to be more "reliable", and work their offense through more subtle means. Don't have a definitive standard, but I'd suspect it looks something like this:

Getzlaf
Bergeron
Krejci (maybe)
O'Reilly
Monahan (maybe)
E. Staal (maybe)
Toews
Zetterberg
Barkov (maybe)
Kopitar
Carter (maybe)
Koivu (maybe)
Johansen
Crosby
Thornton
H. Sedin
Backstrom
Little (maybe)

Depending on opinion, it can be as many as 20, or as few as roughly a dozen, but in general at least half of the top tier centers in the league are players I would classify as "quietly effective". Barring Crosby, who's exciting because he's arguably the best, not because his playstyle is actually exciting like it used to be.

And if you look at who these players play for, of the top 10 teams in the standings right now, 6 of those teams have a player I'd consider a "quietly effective" top center, and another two simply don't have one of the players listed at all. Only Dallas and Tampa Bay lack a reliable-type top-tier center or up and comer.

These teams win with centers who understand that sometimes the best play to make is not at all. It's a team game, and more than ever teams are finding success because they're led by players who can move the puck around well. I don't mean making that insane highlight reel pass. I mean the kind of players who make good short support passes when needed, who are smart enough to use their presence to create space for teammates, and are able to read the movement of play well enough to sneak into scoring areas.

There will always be room for the space creators, the ones who have that innate ability to impose their will on a game. But being able to control the pace of the game comes in many forms, and one of them is the ability to produce when no one sees you doing much of anything, and that ability can be relied upon game in and game out because it's easily reproduceable. Explosive players tend to be streaky for the simple fact that a lot of that "it" factor relies on factors outside of a player's control. Scorers need bounces in order to score, which is a variable that changes like the wind.

As for the point on McDavid, Eichel and Laine potential: you vastly underestimate the ability to get to a level where you're a Hall of Famer by 28. The only player I see possessing the ability to reach that level is McDavid, and even he's not a guarantee. Those players in their offensive primes were guaranteed 100 point players if healthy. The only player besides them to be able to put up 100 points in their sleep who was drafted over the last 2 decades is maybe Joe Thornton. You'd be going back to the late 80s early 90s draft era to find anyone who could have done that on a consistent basis, and for more than 2 or 3 years (hello Jagr my old friend).

Eichel will be an elite number 1 center, and maybe even come close to 100 points more than once or twice, but saying he will be as good as the 3 best players of the previous generation is something that I'm comfortable saying will not happen; his top end is in the tier just below those truly generational forwards. Same with Laine, although I also feel that Laine's got a far higher disappointment range and is far less of a sure bet than either Eichel or Matthews.

Matthews is a solid bet to be an elite 2-way center, the only question is whether he's more along the molds of a Bergeron/Koivu/O'Reilly, who scores roughly 60 points a season, or a Kopitar/Johansen/EStaal range, who can score 70+ points a season on a relatively consistent basis. That's why I have him at the top of my draft list, without question. Are there prospects who could exceed that PPG plateau? Yes. Is it likely that they will do so? Absolutely not.

The chances that Matthews will be a consistent number 1 center with good two-way abilities is far higher than the chances of a Laine/Puljujarvi/Keller being able to outproduce him to the point that the difference in defensive abilities will be negated; at best, their value will be on the same level. Add to that the fact that Matthews will be a lot closer in development to hitting that prime, and for longer, than any other prospect in this draft only makes him that much more valuable.

The odds of someone in this draft having a higher peak performance in terms of offensive production than Matthews is actually quite high IMO, it's just that peak performance alone isn't enough to justify a 1st overall selection in my mind. There is no GM in the league who would take 3 or 4 years of elite, explosive 80+ point/40+ goal offense (following a few years of development and growing pains) over a decade plus of consistent, nonflashy ~70 point production (following a fairly seamless transition to the NHL game as a rookie).

 

[Sweet Chilly Heat]

First of all it is good to remember that Aho is only 2 months older than Matthews. Aho was one of the youngest player in his draft and Matthews is one of the oldest in his draft. This gives quite an advantage for Matthews in draft picks. Especially in the case that Aho has developed considerably during the last year. I agree that Matthews has been a great talent already long and his developing has been steady and quite much how it has been projected so far. But Aho has taken huge steps in his development during the last two years, especially last year. What people who haven't seen Aho play much don't understand is that Aho has a totally amazing hockey IQ. His sense of the game is just unbelievable. This is why he is clearly leading FEL with +20 and has a clear margin to any of his teammates in this statistic. He is also a top 10 player with his PPG in FEL, which is also quite amazing taken into account how exceptionally well he plays defensively. I think it's fair to to look at their small age difference and say that if they both play in the NHL next season, they are not leagues apart - even literally.

But anyway as this is a Matthews thread, I have to point out that Matthews is still the most balanced player in this year's draft. And more balanced than any of the three great Finnish prospects that I have been praising so much. Still to me Laine is the biggest talent of these four great young players, because of his spectacular shot, huge size and good skating for such a big guy. His hockey sence is also very good. I see Matthews, Pulju and Aho as the same class talents with each others, but definitely Matthews is a less risky prospect of these three. He really doesn't seem to have any clear weaknesses. Pulju's weakness is his inability to use his shot quickly and accurately in traffic. He should also develop using his great size much better to be a great NHL player. Otherwise I think he has all the tools to become a star player. Aho's only real weakness is his lack of size and strength. But in my opinion he has the best hockey IQ of this bunch and his skating is really good too, so I see it so that he will be able to overcome his weaknesses and be a good NHL player already next season.

I admit that if the NHL teams want to pick the least risky draft eligible player, it probably should be Matthews. But if they are willing to take even a tiny risk, then Laine would be my clear choice. All in all, a really great draft this year. I see it in fact as maybe an even better quality draft than last year was. Of course McDavid is in his own class. But the top three players in this year's draft are in my opinion at least as good talents as Eichel is, and most likely even a bit better ones. In my opinion Eichel has been at least slightly overhyped, although definitely a very talented player. I just like more what I have seen so far with Laine, Matthews and Pulju.

age doesnt matter Mathews goes top 3 in 2015 any way

 

[Opado]

Cant wait to see him bust.