C Auston Matthews - ZSC Lions, NLA (2016 Draft) III

[jaa]

If comparing FEL and NLA, people should also understand the difference of salaries between the two. There's nowhere near the same money in FEL. That's the reason there aren't ex KHL or NHL players, it is super obvious. Rationally comparing these leagues it is pretty obvious that FEL is the better and harder-to-score league. This does not mean that the top NLA teams wouldn't dominate in FEL (which has not happened when looking the most recent matchups).

This also does not take anything away from Matthews' awesome season. It is really impressive and he is the most exciting center prospect in this draft by far, and at this point the obvious #1 pick. Laine will have to absolutely destroy FEL to challenge him.

 

[Beukeboom]

Extremely good points. The other (probably North American) poster tried to imply that everything is just about how bad scoring players FEL has, by trying to make a point with how some North American minors players are playing in FEL. It shows how North Americans so easily like to think only through what is well known to them, and not taking seriously some things that they don't know about or can't understand. Here Stavros presented hard, cold facts that prove that in general FEL is a tougher league. Some few North American guys playing here and there prove nothing (Brian Rafalski was not appreciated in the minors an not even in Swedish Elitserien, but he became a magnificent player in FEL and a great NHL player after it). The proof is the class of the young prospects and other potential great Finnish players there are. Not maybe NHL-great most of them, but KHL potentials at least. And I claim that there's a huge amount more of this level players in FEL than in NLA.

Well if I am one of your N American posters I can inform you I am Swedish, maybe that makes you more suspicious of anti finnish bias

So as a Swedish guy I am very impressed he produces better than Linus Klasen, Robert Nilsson, Dick Axelsson, Tony Martensson. Those are some very good players that perhaps never really made it in NHL but they have a few SHL scoring titles or top positions amongst them and have also produced in KHL.

He also competes with other Europeans such as Brunner, Immonen, Pesonen, Lindgren, Santala, Olimb, Bergenheim, Pluss and NA ex NHLers such as PM Bouchard, Derek Roy, Jim Slater, Matt D'agostini, Conacher, Pyatt, Shannon, Kobasew, Pouliot, Moss, Olesz, Lombardi etc

And finally he has ex AHL'ers just as the finnish league with the difference that these AHLers were ppg in AHL and even won the scoring race there: Alexander Giroux, Holden, Emmerton, Kolarik.

So for the 20th time, in response to the poster above, it is the competition at the top that is impressive not the PPG itself. I am not saying a 1.25 ppg in Switzerland is as good as 1.25 in Finland. I am merely saying that I am more impressed by a top 10 scoring position in Switzerland than in Finland and for that top position the level of goaltending, depth players and/or league GPG are irrelevant.

 

[LoveNHL]

Well if I am one of your N American posters I can inform you I am Swedish, maybe that makes you more suspicious of anti finnish bias

So as a Swedish guy I am very impressed he produces better than Linus Klasen, Robert Nilsson, Dick Axelsson, Tony Martensson. Those are some very good players that perhaps never really made it in NHL but they have a few SHL scoring titles or top positions amongst them and have also produced in KHL.

He also competes with other Europeans such as Brunner, Immonen, Pesonen, Lindgren, Santala, Olimb, Bergenheim, Pluss and NA ex NHLers such as PM Bouchard, Derek Roy, Jim Slater, Matt D'agostini, Conacher, Pyatt, Shannon, Kobasew, Pouliot, Moss, Olesz, Lombardi etc

And finally he has ex AHL'ers just as the finnish league with the difference that these AHLers were ppg in AHL and even won the scoring race there: Alexander Giroux, Holden, Emmerton, Kolarik.

So for the 20th time, in response to the poster above, it is the competition at the top that is impressive not the PPG itself. I am not saying a 1.25 ppg in Switzerland is as good as 1.25 in Finland. I am merely saying that I am more impressed by a top 10 scoring position in Switzerland than in Finland and for that top position the level of goaltending, depth players and/or league GPG are irrelevant.

Agree with above. What Matthews have been doing in Europe is for such a young guy very impressive. The difference in league is not that important. Just the fact that Matthews been so good here in Europe makes him a not over hyped player.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Well, let's throw together a quick list of the players who most people reasonably assume would be 1Cs right now as well as some other highly touted but debatable centers (borderline guys or young players with potential or both).

Getzlaf
Bergeron
Krejci (maybe)
O'Reilly
Eichel (maybe)
Monahan (maybe)
E. Staal (maybe)
Toews
MacKinnon (maybe)
Duchene
Seguin
Zetterberg
Datsyuk
McDavid (maybe)
Barkov (maybe)
Kopitar
Carter (maybe)
Koivu (maybe)
Johansen
Tavares
Turris (maybe)
Giroux
Crosby
Malkin
Thornton
Stamkos
H. Sedin
Backstrom
Kuznetsov (maybe)
Little (maybe)

Now, let's take out all the "flashy" players, the kind who in generic terms are considered exciting players to watch, and leave those who are considered to be more "reliable", and work their offense through more subtle means. Don't have a definitive standard, but I'd suspect it looks something like this:

Getzlaf
Bergeron
Krejci (maybe)
O'Reilly
Monahan (maybe)
E. Staal (maybe)
Toews
Zetterberg
Barkov (maybe)
Kopitar
Carter (maybe)
Koivu (maybe)
Johansen
Crosby
Thornton
H. Sedin
Backstrom
Little (maybe)

Depending on opinion, it can be as many as 20, or as few as roughly a dozen, but in general at least half of the top tier centers in the league are players I would classify as "quietly effective". Barring Crosby, who's exciting because he's arguably the best, not because his playstyle is actually exciting like it used to be.

And if you look at who these players play for, of the top 10 teams in the standings right now, 6 of those teams have a player I'd consider a "quietly effective" top center, and another two simply don't have one of the players listed at all. Only Dallas and Tampa Bay lack a reliable-type top-tier center or up and comer.

These teams win with centers who understand that sometimes the best play to make is not at all. It's a team game, and more than ever teams are finding success because they're led by players who can move the puck around well. I don't mean making that insane highlight reel pass. I mean the kind of players who make good short support passes when needed, who are smart enough to use their presence to create space for teammates, and are able to read the movement of play well enough to sneak into scoring areas.

There will always be room for the space creators, the ones who have that innate ability to impose their will on a game. But being able to control the pace of the game comes in many forms, and one of them is the ability to produce when no one sees you doing much of anything, and that ability can be relied upon game in and game out because it's easily reproduceable. Explosive players tend to be streaky for the simple fact that a lot of that "it" factor relies on factors outside of a player's control. Scorers need bounces in order to score, which is a variable that changes like the wind.

As for the point on McDavid, Eichel and Laine potential: you vastly underestimate the ability to get to a level where you're a Hall of Famer by 28. The only player I see possessing the ability to reach that level is McDavid, and even he's not a guarantee. Those players in their offensive primes were guaranteed 100 point players if healthy. The only player besides them to be able to put up 100 points in their sleep who was drafted over the last 2 decades is maybe Joe Thornton. You'd be going back to the late 80s early 90s draft era to find anyone who could have done that on a consistent basis, and for more than 2 or 3 years (hello Jagr my old friend).

Eichel will be an elite number 1 center, and maybe even come close to 100 points more than once or twice, but saying he will be as good as the 3 best players of the previous generation is something that I'm comfortable saying will not happen; his top end is in the tier just below those truly generational forwards. Same with Laine, although I also feel that Laine's got a far higher disappointment range and is far less of a sure bet than either Eichel or Matthews.

Matthews is a solid bet to be an elite 2-way center, the only question is whether he's more along the molds of a Bergeron/Koivu/O'Reilly, who scores roughly 60 points a season, or a Kopitar/Johansen/EStaal range, who can score 70+ points a season on a relatively consistent basis. That's why I have him at the top of my draft list, without question. Are there prospects who could exceed that PPG plateau? Yes. Is it likely that they will do so? Absolutely not.

The chances that Matthews will be a consistent number 1 center with good two-way abilities is far higher than the chances of a Laine/Puljujarvi/Keller being able to outproduce him to the point that the difference in defensive abilities will be negated; at best, their value will be on the same level. Add to that the fact that Matthews will be a lot closer in development to hitting that prime, and for longer, than any other prospect in this draft only makes him that much more valuable.

The odds of someone in this draft having a higher peak performance in terms of offensive production than Matthews is actually quite high IMO, it's just that peak performance alone isn't enough to justify a 1st overall selection in my mind. There is no GM in the league who would take 3 or 4 years of elite, explosive 80+ point/40+ goal offense (following a few years of development and growing pains) over a decade plus of consistent, nonflashy ~70 point production (following a fairly seamless transition to the NHL game as a rookie).

I appreciate your attempt and I agree with a lot of it, but there are some things I disagree about.

I don't know why everyone is always talking about 100 point potential. You don't need to have five 120 point seasons to be the Crosby of this generation. Three 100 point seasons to be the Malkin of this generation. six 50 goal seasons to be the Ovechkin of this generation. Scoring is down a lot. I think there needs to be a realization that the standards for scoring are a lot lower. We should be comparing these upcoming players to the previous generation by how they ranked in comparison to their competition, not how they statistically compare to the previous generation where scoring was different. If Crosby played at the same time as Gretzky, would he have had a 150-180 point season? Who knows, and why hold him to that standard? He was an elite player in his generation.

So now when we start comparing the next generation's star players, I think the past two drafts have produced those star forwards in McDavid, Eichel and Laine. Thats my own opinion, others can disagree. When I consider previous drafts, who's that player with that type of potential? Maybe MacKinnon after his rookie, but his play has dropped off a lot, and it seems likely that he'll be no better than the Tavares, Stamkos tier. Besides MacKinnon, there hasn't been a lot of forwards that you can say have star of their generation potential. Some might say Barkov because there are some similarities in potential two-way output to Kopitar or Toews of the previous generation, but I wouldn't say either of those players were in the Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin tier. I think they were the next tier, but some people probably disagree. When I look forward to the next few drafts, who is a Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin type of talent? Its hard to tell, but I don't think there are any obvious candidates that most people would agree right now will be talents of that level.

I have come to the conclusion that the 2015 and 2016 drafts are the 2004 and 2005 drafts of this generation, in terms of star forwards. They don't need to put up these amazing stats. I believe that there are a few forwards in those drafts that are star talents. I might be wrong or might be right, time will tell, but thats just my opinion.

About your point on Matthews, I think you have it right in how he compares to the previous generation. He's unlikely to be that Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin tier, probably the one right below or maybe even the one below that, but I have Eichel reaching that Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin tier. That may be a big point that others disagree on, but I think Eichel's potential is a tier above Matthews.

 

[LoveNHL]

The comparison beteende Eichel an Matthews is interesting. Both are in my opinion having the same potential. Both will be very much dependent on their team mates. With a great chemistry both have potential to reach 100 points.

 

[Sojourn]

I actually think Matthews will make his teammates dependent on him. He just seems to be able to take in everything around him, and quickly come to the right decision in about the time it takes for the puck to arrive on his stick. And just as quickly it's off his stick again.

It's one thing to think the game at a high level, but it's quite another to do it quickly, and with so much awareness. Combine that with his overall talent level, and he'll make everyone around him better.

 

[scipio]

The final of the swiss cup will start in 1 minute. There will be a live stream on http://www.srf.ch (you will need VPN connection or proxy)

 

[TheZec]

Didn't see the game, but he potted two primary assists.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Looking at the standings and lottery chances today. Buffalo, Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg all have decent chances of drafting Matthews. If one of these teams gets him. It could be.

Eichel, Reinhart, Matthews
Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Matthews
Bennett, Monahan, Matthews
Little, Scheifele, Matthews, Connor

Very interesting if one of these team's win the lottery.

 

[Wintersun]

Looking at the standings and lottery chances today. Buffalo, Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg all have decent chances of drafting Matthews. If one of these teams gets him. It could be.

Eichel, Reinhart, Matthews
Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Matthews
Bennett, Monahan, Matthews
Little, Scheifele, Matthews, Connor

Very interesting if one of these team's win the lottery.

I'd say Reinhart, Draisaitl, Bennett and Connor would go wing if that happened.

 

[Ducks Nation*]

If the Oilers get Matthews...... lmao.

 

[Jaynki]

If the Oilers get Matthews...... lmao.

They will win a lot with McDavid return it hink. Pretty sure they won't pick top 3.

 

[M.C.G. 31]

If the Oilers get Matthews...... lmao.

The NHL owes the Habs for getting involved in the John Scott thing.

 

[The Sweetness]

Looking at the standings and lottery chances today. Buffalo, Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg all have decent chances of drafting Matthews. If one of these teams gets him. It could be.

Eichel, Reinhart, Matthews
Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Matthews, RNH
Bennett, Monahan, Matthews
Little, Scheifele, Matthews, Connor

Very interesting if one of these team's win the lottery.

Don't forget RNH though I'd guess he's gone if EDM win the lottery.

 

[figure]

Stamkos - Matthews - Marner...

 

[Beukeboom]

Stamkos - Matthews - Marner...

That would be insane. Not too unlikely either.

Two primary assists in a final, he delivers when it matters

 

[Palmer2Fitz]

That would be insane. Not too unlikely either.

Two primary assists in a final, he delivers when it matters

If you think the odds of you getting Stamkos and Mathews are not too unlikely, then i would love to make bets with someone like you.

 

[tinozz]

That would be insane. Not too unlikely either.

Two primary assists in a final, he delivers when it matters

yea like in u20

 

[Heldig]

Looking at the standings and lottery chances today. Buffalo, Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg all have decent chances of drafting Matthews. If one of these teams gets him. It could be.

Eichel, Reinhart, Matthews
Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Matthews
Bennett, Monahan, Matthews
Little, Scheifele, Matthews, Connor

Very interesting if one of these team's win the lottery.

"Interesting" would not be the word(s) I use IF Edmonoton wins the lottery (again)

 

[Team Cozens]

Better than Eichel

Because Eichel plays for the Sabres and you actually think the Leafs will get Matthews?? LOL

Eichel > Matthews

 

[Beukeboom]

Because Eichel plays for the Sabres and you actually think the Leafs will get Matthews?? LOL

Eichel > Matthews

What do you base that on? I'm curious.

 

[psycho_dad*]

We are witnessing the most impressive draft year season ever by a Euro-based player.

Where? By who?

Jesus christ the ignorance in this thread is unbearable.

Send the next big american prospect to the Italian league and he will also have the "most impressive draft year season by a euro-based player" and average 2 points per game.

It's not up to any sort of debate whether Finnish Liiga is well above NLA in quality or not. It is, clearly. Every metric possible will provide you with this information.

Achievements in Liiga matter more than achievements in NLA. The leagues are not close in general level of play.

It seems that every Matthews fan suddenly became an expert in european hockey leagues when he moved over there to play for a season. Next thing we'll hear that it's comparable to KHL and just a tiny notch down from NHL.

If you guys don't want Finnish hockey fans to write in this thread, keep it clean from this sort of crap and most people (like me) won't bother to write in it to correct these delusions. I don't care who gets picked first, it depends on the needs of the team who gets the first pick.

You can prefer Matthews over others because "you see something in him", just don't use his NLA point production to compare head to head with someone elses Liiga production, that is ignorance.

 

[Space Coyote]

Looking at the standings and lottery chances today. Buffalo, Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg all have decent chances of drafting Matthews. If one of these teams gets him. It could be.

Eichel, Reinhart, Matthews
Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Matthews
Bennett, Monahan, Matthews
Little, Scheifele, Matthews, Connor

Very interesting if one of these team's win the lottery.

Why did you leave Toronto out? They also have good chance at drafting Matthews. It could be.

Nylander, Marner, Matthews

And if they could land Stamkos in the summer. I could very well be.

Stamkos, Nylander, Marner, Matthews

 

[Beukeboom]

Where? By who?

Jesus christ the ignorance in this thread is unbearable.

Send the next big american prospect to the Italian league and he will also have the "most impressive draft year season by a euro-based player" and average 2 points per game.

It's not up to any sort of debate whether Finnish Liiga is well above NLA in quality or not. It is, clearly. Every metric possible will provide you with this information.

Achievements in Liiga matter more than achievements in NLA. The leagues are not close in general level of play.

It seems that every Matthews fan suddenly became an expert in european hockey leagues when he moved over there to play for a season. Next thing we'll hear that it's comparable to KHL and just a tiny notch down from NHL.

If you guys don't want Finnish hockey fans to write in this thread, keep it clean from this sort of crap and most people (like me) won't bother to write in it to correct these delusions. I don't care who gets picked first, it depends on the needs of the team who gets the first pick.

You can prefer Matthews over others because "you see something in him", just don't use his NLA point production to compare head to head with someone elses Liiga production, that is ignorance.

As we said many times in this thread, the top end talent is better in NLA. Those are the guys you compete with in the scoring race, not other leagues depth players..

 

[The Winter Soldier]

"Interesting" would not be the word(s) I use IF Edmonoton wins the lottery (again)

I know, perhaps unfair if they get lucky 2x in 2 years.

Part of me would like to see a Mcdavid/Matthews/Draisaitl troika down the middle. But I get it. How lucky can a team continue to get before they turn it around? If they can't do it with these 3 guys, then there would be no hope for the Oil.

Another part of me would like to see Eichel/Matthews/Reinhart for a decade. Buffalo has suffered as a sports city for awhile from the Bills to the Sabres still looking for their first cup.