C Auston Matthews - ZSC Lions, NLA (2016 Draft) II

[Konk]

If referring to me, i just said that; Sample size is too small, to declare Matthews clear 1OA yet. Dont know, how that's an agenda.

It's kinda hard to REALLY watch him to play, as most of us, cant see full games, and highlight's don't tell real story.

What i am really waiting is to see Matthews @ WJC.

Not referring to you in particular, rather the group of Finnish fans that seem to pop up everytime Matthews breathes to declare how he's not clearly ahead of Puljujarvi and Laine. If you consider yourself in that group, then yes my post was aimed at you, but not you in particular.

Right now Matthews is ranked #1 and has been for quite some time. He's the consensus "1OA" whether Finnish fans like it or not. Could that change? Yes, but that's what it is right now. I don't know why Finnish fans take it so personally.

 

[Snowsii]

Not referring to you in particular, rather the group of Finnish fans that seem to pop up everytime Matthews breathes to declare how he's not clearly ahead of Puljujarvi and Laine. If you consider yourself in that group, then yes my post was aimed at you, but not you in particular.

Right now Matthews is ranked #1 and has been for quite some time. He's the consensus "1OA" whether Finnish fans like it or not. Could that change? Yes, but that's what it is right now. I don't know why Finnish fans take it so personally.

I personally find it funny, that someone can be declared number 1 after two games.. But yes, i can see your point after reading some fellow finns post. Someone said, that matthews benefits from playing in top NLA team.. Well, so does Laine and Puljujärvi benefit as they are playing in top liiga teams.. I'm not an expert on NLA, so i dont know how much there's difference between top and bottom team in NLA, but i dont consider it being a beer league..

 

[habsrule4eva3089]

World Juniors 2016 will be amazing to see how these players compete against each other.

Matthews
Chychrun
Laine
Puljujarvi
Sokolov

Canada vs. Usa first game, imagine Chychrun shuts down Matthews, this thread will be completely taken over just like last year in Eichel's thread after Eichel lost vs McDavid lol.

 

[Loffer]

World Juniors 2016 will be amazing to see how these players compete against each other.

Matthews
Chychrun
Laine
Puljujarvi
Sokolov

Canada vs. Usa first game, imagine Chychrun shuts down Matthews, this thread will be completely taken over just like last year in Eichel's thread after Eichel lost vs McDavid lol.

Barring injuries... (knocking on wood).

 

[Konk]

I personally find it funny, that someone can be declared number 1 after two games.. But yes, i can see your point after reading some fellow finns post. Someone said, that matthews benefits from playing in top NLA team.. Well, so does Laine and Puljujärvi benefit as they are playing in top liiga teams.. I'm not an expert on NLA, so i dont know how much there's difference between top and bottom team in NLA, but i dont consider it being a beer league..

It's not based on two games. Matthews has been the top player in his age group for about a year now.

I don't consider it a benefit that anyone plays in the pro leagues at this point. If anything, not playing the NA game is a detriment, IMO. That said, any minor differences between NLA and SM-Liiga don't mean as much in the grand scheme of things. Not as much as some Finnish fans would have you believe, anyway.

 

[Anardil]

#playlikestatuesformatthews

I prefer 'Play crappy for Papi'.

 

[snizzbone*]

Matthews had arguably a better draft -1 year than Eichel. Eichel was considered to be a #1 pick after his draft year -1 (alongside McDavid, at least he was 'close' to McDavid). That is why he's the top pick right now. Has nothing to do with how he's doing in the NLA right now.

 

[EichHart]

Matthews had arguably a better draft -1 year than Eichel. Eichel was considered to be a #1 pick after his draft year -1 (alongside McDavid, at least he was 'close' to McDavid). That is why he's the top pick right now. Has nothing to do with how he's doing in the NLA right now.

Matthews should have been in the last draft though. A year older is a huge part of that. So technically what Matthews did is not more impressive than what Eichel did. I wish Matthews went to NCAA to see if he could match Eichels 71 pts.

 

[Stand Witness]

Matthews should have been in the last draft though. A year older is a huge part of that. So technically what Matthews did is not more impressive than what Eichel did. I wish Matthews went to NCAA to see if he could match Eichels 71 pts.

Essentially they are even from an age/draft standpoint. Both were late birthdays in their years. I dont think we can say either is better then the other at this point.

 

[snizzbone*]

Matthews should have been in the last draft though. A year older is a huge part of that. So technically what Matthews did is not more impressive than what Eichel did. I wish Matthews went to NCAA to see if he could match Eichels 71 pts.

Eichel was a late bday as well. He should have been in the 2014 draft. Their 'draft -1 seasons' were at virtually the same age.

I'm talking about both of their draft -1 years. Not both of their seasons this year.

Matthew's Draft -1 (2014-2015)
48 Points in 24 USHL Games
116 Points in 60 USDP Games (not sure if that includes USHL games)
15 Points in 7 WJC-U18 Games
3 Points in 5 WJC-U20 Games

Eichel's Draft -1 (2013-2014)
45 Points in 25 USHL Games
87 Points in 57 USDP Games (not sure if that includes USHL games)
10 Points in 7 WJC-U18 Games
5 Points in 5 WJC-U20 Games

 

[KingBrian]

What's a good point total for Matthews in the NlA to retain the number one draft spot?

 

[Plub]

What's a good point total for Matthews in the NlA to retain the number one draft spot?

If you look at the beginning of this thread and throughout the prior thread you'll see a few estimations from people who know the league (I don't know much about the NLA).

Most if not all were below a PPG. Some were as low as .4-.5 ppg. That is clearly changing now (who knows why), but initially, those were some people's expectations of what they would consider respectable.

 

[rduck1]

What's a good point total for Matthews in the NlA to retain the number one draft spot?

There doesn't seem to be much of a precedent for top draft-eligible players in NLA unfortunately. Most of the high-profile Swiss prospects have come through the CHL(or Sweden in Fiala's case). The closest comparables I could find in recent times were Cristoph Bertschy(6th round pick in 2012, 16 points in 31 games) and Denis Malgin(4th round pick in 2015, 8 points in 23 games plus 12 in 24 in NLB), and they are obviously not quite at Matthews' level. The top scorers overall tend to be around 1.1-1.4ppg.

Looking at other European leagues, it seems that somewhere between 0.6 and 0.8ppg is already quite exceptional, and very rarely you'll see someone approach a 1ppg pace(Barkov, Granlund). The NLA is more offensively oriented than Liiga or SHL though(5.66 goals per game vs 5.0 and 5.11 respectively(based on some quick number crunching; might be wrong)), so they're not quite comparable. So in short, you should expect anywhere between 0.5 and 1.5ppg .

 

[scipio]

There doesn't seem to be much of a precedent for top draft-eligible players in NLA unfortunately. Most of the high-profile Swiss prospects have come through the CHL(or Sweden in Fiala's case). The closest comparables I could find in recent times were Cristoph Bertschy(6th round pick in 2012, 16 points in 31 games) and Denis Malgin(4th round pick in 2015, 8 points in 23 games plus 12 in 24 in NLB), and they are obviously not quite at Matthews' level. The top scorers overall tend to be around 1.1-1.4ppg.

Looking at other European leagues, it seems that somewhere between 0.6 and 0.8ppg is already quite exceptional, and very rarely you'll see someone approach a 1ppg pace(Barkov, Granlund). The NLA is more offensively oriented than Liiga or SHL though(5.66 goals per game vs 5.0 and 5.11 respectively(based on some quick number crunching; might be wrong)), so they're not quite comparable. So in short, you should expect anywhere between 0.5 and 1.5ppg .

Based on last years qualification games of NLA, SM Liiga and SHL the average goals per game were (if I calculated correctly): 2.83, 2.50 and 2.56 respectively. Not much of a difference IMO.

You're right, there has not been any high profile prospect who was drafted directly from the NLA. However, 19y-old Lino Martschini scored 44 points in 53 games in his first NLA season (2012/13). Looking forward to see what kind of number Matthews will reach

 

[dsg89]

About his first weekend of pro hockey:

http://thehockeywriters.com/an-unforgettable-weekend-of-matthewsmania/

 

[rduck1]

Based on last years qualification games of NLA, SM Liiga and SHL the average goals per game were (if I calculated correctly): 2.83, 2.50 and 2.56 respectively. Not much of a difference IMO.

You're right, there has not been any high profile prospect who was drafted directly from the NLA. However, 19y-old Lino Martschini scored 44 points in 53 games in his first NLA season (2012/13). Looking forward to see what kind of number Matthews will reach

Not a massive difference, but enough that it's relevant. The NLA scoring rate for last season was 113% of Liiga for example. That would mean that a 50 point season in Liiga is "equivalent"(this is an oversimplification, but hopefully everyone gets the point) to a 56 or 57 point NLA season given the same number of games played. Of course there will be other factors(team performance, coaching style, role, minutes, linemates, etc.) that will further confuse the matter, but it's something that shouldn't be forgotten when comparing players from different leagues(of course we'll need to run the numbers again after the season to see what the actual ratio is for the actual time period being compared).

Anyhow, it will certainly be an interesting season in Europe . Not often we see as many as three potential top-5 selections outside NA.

 

[Hagged]

The biggest difference between Matthews and other European league draftees is the adjustment period. I think that Matthews being a point per game in NLA would mean he is a generational level talent. It would definitely be in the Forsberg category. 0.9 would still top Sedins/Barkov's draft seasons even with NLA being a slightly higher scoring league as there is the adjustment to the bigger ice surface. 0.7, I'd say it would be in Barkov category unless Matthews shows Barkov level defensive game. Below 0.5 would be a bit of a disappointment for me personally, it would be more of a fringe 1st OA pick production (still very very impressive for a first season in Europe).

I guess the finns in general just once in their lifetime would like to see a Finnish 1st OA. And this is their season, with a couple of potential "greatest finnish prospect ever". I just feel both will drop a tad below Barkov's draft season level (similar offense, lesser defense) and get picked 2nd-10th. Matthews will be taken 1st if he stays above 0.7 and neither Finn has well over PPG in FEL. And if someone thinks I'm crazy with the numbers, I just think that the scouts see Matthews as a less risky pick for NA game as it's were he has learned the game, as the adjustment for the Europeans is still ahead.

Well now it seems Matthews is miles ahead of competition with his goal per game pace in NLA against the finns 0.4PPG in Liiga.

 

[leafsfuture]

Matthews should have been in the last draft though. A year older is a huge part of that. So technically what Matthews did is not more impressive than what Eichel did. I wish Matthews went to NCAA to see if he could match Eichels 71 pts.

Eichel took HUGE steps forward though in his draft year. Not just putting up huge point totals but really worked on his all around game and it showed at the Worlds.

Development isn't linear, remember

 

[JayKing]

Secondary assist in the champions league game vs Sparta Prague

 

[Jablkon]

having watched today champions league game nad Matthews pretty impressed me.He si already workhorse of Curych offense...Great Player with great attitude. Interesting direct on ice comparison to Reway who again just showed some flashes and today rather left earlier for some stomach issues...

 

[Halfy]

any decent streaming sites for the NLA?

 

[APVJ]

0+2 today

 

[Brodeur]

#playlikestatuesformatthews

Being a pro wrestling fan, I think I might have to go with something like: Auston 3:16 says 'We just lost again'.

 

[Zorkan]

Matthews' potential is very obvious. He is showing moves and overview that largely surpass anyone else in Zurich's team. While the team has a roster that would qualify as a top team, it is currently not performing like a top team, but that is definitely not due to Matthews' performances which are impressive.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

I personally find it funny, that someone can be declared number 1 after two games.. But yes, i can see your point after reading some fellow finns post. Someone said, that matthews benefits from playing in top NLA team.. Well, so does Laine and Puljujärvi benefit as they are playing in top liiga teams.. I'm not an expert on NLA, so i dont know how much there's difference between top and bottom team in NLA, but i dont consider it being a beer league..

Matthews will be the #1 pick, period.

Laine and Puljujarvi are great prospects but this guy will be a top 6 forward in the NHL as soon as he's drafted. He's just more of a complete player as of now and his potential is obviously through the roof so there's literally no reason not to pick him.

I said this watching the last U-18 tournament where we went head to head against USA in the finals. Laine and Pulju made stuff happen in the occasional shift but this Matthews guy was scary every time he stepped on the ice.

To start the season PPG in the best league after NHL and KHL makes me not doubt myself.

The thing is NA players are always in a better physical shape than Finnish players at this age which already gives them the edge. It took a freak of nature Barkov who is naturally build like a truck for us to produce an NHL-ready 18 yr old forward. It's going to take years before we will actually see which player is the best, Laine and Pulju look good now but we've all seen what the difference of FEL and NHL is.

Unless we have a superstar prospect going to the CHL before his draft year in the future im going to eat my hat if we'll see a Finnish player picked #1 overall as long as there's prospects like Matthews out there.