C Aatu Räty - Jukurit, Liiga (2021, 52nd, NYI)

[Big Empty]

Poehling is 22 years old. He can still be a top 6 center. Definitely can be a #3 center like a Pageau. Poehling is areadyba good defensive forward at his age.

I agree. I could see him being a good 3rd line centre down the line.

I also hope Raty becomes a stud. I like the Isles a ton.

 

[Romang67]

Judging a player based on one poor season is also the most HFBoards thing to do.

That doesn't really apply to Räty though, does it? He was extremely highly rated after his draft-2 season. He put up good numbers in the regular season, and great numbers in the playoffs.

Then his draft-1 season happened, and he didn't improve on those numbers at all. He didn't really impress against seniors, which is fine at that age, but he also didn't take that next step for the U20 team.

And then his draft season was largely unimpressive as well, and he failed to get invited back to play in the WJC.

Räty had a meteoric rise through his draft-2 season, and then stagnated for two years. He's not the first player that happens to, and it's usually not a good sign. Sure, he may be the steal of the draft, and good on the Islanders for getting him in the 2nd round if that is the case. That doesn't mean that teams were wrong to question his ability after the past two seasons.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

That doesn't really apply to Räty though, does it? He was extremely highly rated after his draft-2 season. He put up good numbers in the regular season, and great numbers in the playoffs.

Then his draft-1 season happened, and he didn't improve on those numbers at all. He didn't really impress against seniors, which is fine at that age, but he also didn't take that next step for the U20 team.

And then his draft season was largely unimpressive as well, and he failed to get invited back to play in the WJC.

Räty had a meteoric rise through his draft-2 season, and then stagnated for two years. He's not the first player that happens to, and it's usually not a good sign. Sure, he may be the steal of the draft, and good on the Islanders for getting him in the 2nd round if that is the case. That doesn't mean that teams were wrong to question his ability after the past two seasons.

Also of note, the WJC summer showcase is kind of a nothing tournament. Some players are obviously working their tails off way more than others to make an impression on the teams that drafted them. Just look at team Sweden for example; that team seems to be coasting through 2/3 of every game. I don't think people should put too much stock into it.

However, if Raty can use this as a confidence booster and carry this play into his Liiga season then good for him. I think that's when we can say that Raty should have been drafted higher.

 

[LoveHateLeafs]

That doesn't really apply to Räty though, does it? He was extremely highly rated after his draft-2 season. He put up good numbers in the regular season, and great numbers in the playoffs.

Then his draft-1 season happened, and he didn't improve on those numbers at all. He didn't really impress against seniors, which is fine at that age, but he also didn't take that next step for the U20 team.

And then his draft season was largely unimpressive as well, and he failed to get invited back to play in the WJC.

Räty had a meteoric rise through his draft-2 season, and then stagnated for two years. He's not the first player that happens to, and it's usually not a good sign. Sure, he may be the steal of the draft, and good on the Islanders for getting him in the 2nd round if that is the case. That doesn't mean that teams were wrong to question his ability after the past two seasons.

Exactly. It's great that Raty excelled at the Summer Showcase, but as a cautionary tale...

Just after the 2010 draft, a bunch of people were saying Florida got a steal when they took John McFarland 33rd overall. A couple years before, McFarland had been hyped as a potential #1 overall pick after being selected 1st in the OHL entry draft. His 1st OHL season was encouraging, but he didn't develop much after that and only ended up playing 3 NHL games and is now retired from playing.

Among the ten picks immediately after McFarland were:

Alex Petrovic
Justin Faulk
John Merrill
Patrick Nemeth
Devante Smith-Pelly

They may not be All-Stars or even still in the NHL, but each played over 250 NHL games, and all but Petrovic played over 360.

In the past I've been very guilty of looking at the final results of the draft and thinking Wow, Team X got Player Y who I thought was going a round or two higher. Therefore it must be a steal. I still am if I don't catch myself doing one of the following:

Forgetting that the people who make these decisions know way more than I do, even if they're often wrong.
In Raty's and other cases people have pointed out that the professionals, even though they're often wrong, have way more experience and viewings in these matters than the rest of us, so there is probably something to those kinds of precipitous falls. And those decisions are the result of input from multiple people for each team.

Forgetting the Arithmetic of Large Drops
Suppose a previously highly-hyped player is drafted a round or more so after where he should be even though he really is deserving of that higher draft position based on info we have now. Say Raty should have been 22-32nd overall for argument's sake, while he fell to 52. Well, in order for that to be true, almost all the scouting departments have to be wrong about the kid. The Oilers who picked 22nd would have to be wrong, but not super wrong. Maybe they honestly thought Raty was the next best player available after Xavier Bourgault. But if Raty really was the 22nd best player available, the further down the draft you go, the more wrong each subsequent team has to be about him.

Who are you comparing him to?
Finally, since the amount of attention we pay to a draft-eligible player drops so sharply the lower we expect him to go, when a player like Raty drops by as much as he did and we go to examine the final draft results, we find him surrounded by players we've paid way less attention to over the previous year(assuming we've paid them any at all). So I think big fallers mentally jump out at us.

Have you really thought about the other players taken around the big faller?
The final error we tend to make when this happens is that since we don't know the future, we tend to mentally discount the probability that some of those lesser-knowns drafted around the big fallers, will end up being the best player taken in that neighbourhood, and a player taken in the 7th may end up being the best player in the whole draft when all is said and done.

In a decade or two, we may well look back and be able to say with certainty that Raty turned out to be a way better hockey player than the 30 players taken before him. We may also be able to say with certainty that there were 5 players taken in the 30 picks after Raty who were way better than him.

 

[Whyme]

That doesn't really apply to Räty though, does it? He was extremely highly rated after his draft-2 season. He put up good numbers in the regular season, and great numbers in the playoffs.

Then his draft-1 season happened, and he didn't improve on those numbers at all. He didn't really impress against seniors, which is fine at that age, but he also didn't take that next step for the U20 team.

And then his draft season was largely unimpressive as well, and he failed to get invited back to play in the WJC.

Räty had a meteoric rise through his draft-2 season, and then stagnated for two years. He's not the first player that happens to, and it's usually not a good sign. Sure, he may be the steal of the draft, and good on the Islanders for getting him in the 2nd round if that is the case. That doesn't mean that teams were wrong to question his ability after the past two seasons.

Just quicky but I don't know if the draft -2 year was too bad as Räty was still seen as one of the top-5 picks and maybe more as a #1 than anyone else. Maybe some expected more but I've seen plenty of articles where he was still seen as the favourite for #1, I'm pretty sure it was the same in many hockey forums a year before the draft.

21 Days of 2021 NHL Draft Prospects: #1 — Aatu Raty

Lots of positivies about Räty and also his development. There's also similar qoutes from other sources mentioned in the article.

TSN says he's considered by many to be the favourite for #1 in this article:

On road to 2021 draft, Aatu Raty unfazed by historic chance - TSN.ca

Dobberprospects also had him at #1:

2021 NHL Draft: 15 Months Out

NHL Central Scouting had him at #3 after the season.

 

[Go Wings]

Judging a player based on one poor season is also the most HFBoards thing to do.

Almost every team passed on him once and a lot of teams passed on him twice for a reason. This has nothing to do with HFBoards this is about what scouts and teams thought of Raty.

Saying Raty was an absolute steal after a meaningless exhibition tournament is the most HFboards thing to do.

 

[Jussi]

Almost every team passed on him once and a lot of teams passed on him twice for a reason. This has nothing to do with HFBoards this is about what scouts and teams thought of Raty.

Saying Raty was an absolute steal after a meaningless exhibition tournament is the most HFboards thing to do.

Nope.

 

[Albatros]

Almost every team passed on him once and a lot of teams passed on him twice for a reason. This has nothing to do with HFBoards this is about what scouts and teams thought of Raty.

Saying Raty was an absolute steal after a meaningless exhibition tournament is the most HFboards thing to do.

Argumentum ab auctoritate.

 

[Whyme]

I've come across some articles written a bit before the draft where they speculate Räty could be the steal of the draft even around #20 or so. Like this one speculating about Boston picking him at 20. A couple of quotes:

- Players with his potential are rare to come across outside of the Top-10 and he has the toolkit to develop into a true first-line centerman who can take on 20-plus minutes of ice time each night while chipping in on the powerplay.

- In a few seasons, he may even be ready to replace Bergeron on the top-line, which feels like an impossible task but is something he is fully capable of. And if he can put it all together, he could become the steal of the draft.

THW 2021 Mock NHL Draft: Bruins Select Aatu Raty 20th Overall

 

[agent082]

I don't think either of those is a good comparison, both highly skilled but questionable work ethic/attitude problems. The work ethic didn't seem to be this guys reason for falling(he just had a very sub par draft year)

Puljujarvi has never had work ethic problems.

 

[Whyme]

One last post from me. I do think Räty was the steal of the draft and that he will become a very good NHL player, but I recognize there's lots of work to be done. It's still a long process, but I think a lot of the struggles have been confidence based so it'll be interesting to see where an increased confidence will lead. Then again I'm not sure how many top-20 prospects would've done well in the circumstances my FEL team put Räty in especially for the first few months (that lead to him losing the U20 spot).

We've seen players dominate on the juniors, but having a hard time adjusting to the NHL, especially if they've been used in a way that hasn't been optimal for the player to use his strengths. So patience is and will be needed. It's still quite exciting that in this tournament Räty was so much better than everyone picked before him. It's not like the others weren't trying, but somehow everything clicked for Räty.

 

[TorontoIslander]

Stock doesn't rise because of one good tournament. Lou took a guy all GMs passed on. That should tell you something. Glad to be rid of this guy.

 

[Osakahaus]

Aho 2.0

would love it if he became Aho 2.0.

 

[Osakahaus]

Stock doesn't rise because of one good tournament. Lou took a guy all GMs passed on. That should tell you something. Glad to be rid of this guy.

that he's a good player? Why are you suddenly the word of wisdom just because he picked him up? He went to a best organization than the Leafs are anyways. I shouldn't be worried about that

 

[Osakahaus]

Almost every team passed on him once and a lot of teams passed on him twice for a reason. This has nothing to do with HFBoards this is about what scouts and teams thought of Raty.

Saying Raty was an absolute steal after a meaningless exhibition tournament is the most HFboards thing to do.

he's playing like he's doing well, so it could be.

 

[Conbon]

How does Raty compare to Yakupov stylistically?

 

[SI90]

Glad to be rid of this guy.

The islanders are glad he’s not in Toronto anymore either. They let one of the most respected GMs in NHL history walk out of the door and they haven’t sniffed an ounce of success. Meanwhile the islanders franchise had completely blossomed under Lou. The sad thing is we lost our best player to Toronto that same year and since then the islanders have been better than the leafs and have gone further every year.



On Raty

We’ve seen guys drop before. It happens. All it takes is for a GM to like one guy better. Also, Covid and the restrictions also play a part. There were many circumstances for Ratys drop. Weather he becomes an NHL player remains to be seen but the truth is the majority of mock drafts for the experts still had Raty going in the first round.

NHL Mock Draft Craig Button - TSN.ca

Mock 2021 NHL Draft: Hughes could go to Devils, Kings

Bob McKenzie's 2021 final draft rankings - TSN.ca

NHL Mock Draft 2021, final edition: Sabres add Power, Kraken make first pick and Hughes brothers unite

2021 NHL Mock Draft: 1st-Round Order and Final Landing Spots for Top Prospects

2021 NHL Mock Draft & Simulator | Tankathon

2021 NHL Mock Draft: Post-Lottery Edition (Round 1)

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I won't be writing here for a while now (have to concentrate on other things in my life for some time), but before I go I'll copy/paste this here:


Here's the final points of the players that were drafted before Räty in this tournament:

4th pick defender Luke Hughes 0+0=0 (-1) / 2 games
10th pick Tyler Boucher 1+1=2 (-1) / 4 games
13th pick Matthew Coronato 0+2=2 (+0) / 4 games
14th pick Isak Rosen 1+0=1 (-4) / 6 games
18th pick Chaz Lucius 2+0=2 (-1) / 3 games
-----------------------------------------------------------
21st pick Fabian Lysell 0+0=0 (-5) / 6 games
24th pick Matthew Samoskewich 1+1=2 (0) / 2 games
28th pick Oskar Olausson 3+1=4 (-2) / 6 games
36th pick defender Shai Buium 0+0=0 (0) / 1 game
37th pick Josh Doan 0+0=0 (0) / 1 game
40th pick defender Scott Morrow 0+0=0 (-1) / 1 game
44th pick defender Aleksi Heimosalmi 0+1=1 (-3) / 6 games
46th pick Samu Tuomaala 1+1=2 (+2) / 5 games
51st pick Ville Koivunen 1+1=2 (+2) / 6 games
------------------------------------------------------------
52nd pick Aatu Räty 6+8=14 (+8) / 6 games

This is very inaccurate. I have no clue where you got your data, but you totaled all of Raty’s games and select games for the other players you listed. Can you explain how you totaled all of this up?

 

[JJTT]

How does Raty compare to Yakupov stylistically?

Not at all?

 

[Bronson]

Stock doesn't rise because of one good tournament. Lou took a guy all GMs passed on. That should tell you something. Glad to be rid of this guy.

Good for you, lol.

 

[Whyme]

This is very inaccurate. I have no clue where you got your data, but you totaled all of Raty’s games and select games for the other players you listed. Can you explain how you totaled all of this up?

I got it from here:

Statistics - 2021 WJSS - 2021 WJSS Game Stats

I didn't make these calculations, just got them straight from this page where they keep statistics and update them after every game. To me it seems they've been updated accurately so I have no reason to believe they're not correct. I thought the lesser amount of games for many players (which I agree does look strange) would be explained by cycling players.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I got it from here:

Statistics - 2021 WJSS - 2021 WJSS Game Stats

I didn't make these calculations, just got them straight from this page where they keep statistics and update them after every game. To me it seems they've been updated accurately so I have no reason to believe they're not correct. I thought the lesser amount of games for many players (which I agree does look strange) would be explained by cycling players.

USA had two separate teams. Some guys would play a game for white and then the next day for blue. If you see their name scrolling down the list, it doesn’t mean that was the extent of their stats.

 

[Whyme]

USA had two separate teams. Some guys would play a game for white and then the next day for blue. If you see their name scrolling down the list, it doesn’t mean that was the extent of their stats.

Heck, you're right. So strange they have total points standings that look like final, but they haven't added all the games. I calculated these quickly but adding stats from both teams (USA Blue and USA White), but they should be correct. Now others also have more games so thank you for mentioning this! These should be the correct stats:


4th pick defender Luke Hughes 0+0=0 (-2) / 5 games
10th pick Tyler Boucher 1+1=2 (-3) / 5 games
13th pick Matthew Coronato 0+3=3 (+2) / 5 games
14th pick Isak Rosen 1+0=1 (-4) / 6 games
18th pick Chaz Lucius 2+0=2 (-1) / 3 games
-----------------------------------------------------------
21st pick Fabian Lysell 0+0=0 (-5) / 6 games
24th pick Matthew Samoskewich 1+3=4 (+1) / 5 games
28th pick Oskar Olausson 3+1=4 (-2) / 6 games
36th pick defender Shai Buium 0+0=0 (0) / 2 games
37th pick Josh Doan 0+1=1 (-1) / 4 games
40th pick defender Scott Morrow 1+0=1 (+1) / 2 games
44th pick defender Aleksi Heimosalmi 0+1=1 (-3) / 6 games
46th pick Samu Tuomaala 1+1=2 (+2) / 5 games
51st pick Ville Koivunen 1+1=2 (+2) / 6 games
------------------------------------------------------------
52nd pick Aatu Räty 6+8=14 (+8) / 6 games

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I'm happy Raty's doing well but his play over a 10 day period at this WJC Showcase camp is not an indicator of the kind of player he's going to be.

Ryan Poehling and Jesse Puljujarvi were WJC MVP's.

If Raty shows improvement over a longer period of time then you can start to call him a steal.

I think if you get a player like Puljujarvi at 52 you're typically going to be very happy.

 

[Big Empty]

I think if you get a player like Puljujarvi at 52 you're typically going to be very happy.

I’m talking about raising expectations based off small sample sizes, not about draft position.

I would agree that Puljujarvi at 52 is a good pick yes. The same goes for Poehling.

The point is that you can’t project a player’s career based of the World Juniors. A 2 week span of hockey is not an indicator of a player’s true potential. That’s built up over a long period of consistent play. In Raty’s case, that would be the Liiga.