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Post-Game Talk: Build The Wal

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Drivesaitl said:
Not sure on this. GA/G pretty identical, slightly better last season but Oilers were topten in GA/G last season and 13th now. fwiw.

Also, factoring in the transition to KK/Coffey and just looking at that alone that D had way better stats. The seasons start skews it adversely last season. The Oilers cut it around 2.50GA/G with Coffey and Knob. shining D stats last season after coaching change.

These guys despite being athletes are human though. From situation I'm gauging Ekholm has been very sick, and he has been for a longwhile. That they shut it down for him probably meaning respiratory infection that wasn't going away. That can really take a lot out of you even when you get back and his game is very physical. he might not be the Ekholm we know for awhile.

Plus bad habits trickle in the longer we have any incumbent coaches here. Hopefully this time its different.
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Its only 1 game but if Nurse and Walman are a legit pairing which tonight is a good first step that’s huge for the Oilers. Nurse really hasn’t had a good partner in quite a few years. Larsson was probably the last one and they kind of had mixed results. I think Nurse is having a better year as well individually.

The Ekholm/Bouchard pairing is quite a bit worse this year. Bouchard has really struggled at times this year. Ekholm has had a bit of a bumpy ride. Traditionally hes been very consistent but hes been up and down this year.

Kulak has had a great year for the most part. Knob will have to figure out which of Klingberg, Emberson and Stetcher he wants to play with Kulak.

I think we need to see more from Walman but I have more faith in the defense after the deadline. Hopefully Ekholm/Bouchard pick it up before going into the playoffs.
 
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Drivesaitl said:
Jones seems to have an ounce of offense as well, and Frederic has much more. I'd really wonder how Pods role changes before playoffs. Fred or Jones could play with Drai AND be able to make some plays. Pods is really an offensive black hole. Looking like he might never score again. Imagine not being able to score playing constantly with Draisaitl. Oh well. We got some improvements coming.
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Podz and Jones would be a good pair on the 4th line. Podz is still a very strong defensive forward and hopefully ramps his physicality back up in the playoffs.
 
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Drivesaitl said:
Not sure on this. GA/G pretty identical, slightly better last season but Oilers were topten in GA/G last season and 13th now. fwiw.

Also, factoring in the transition to KK/Coffey and just looking at that alone that D had way better stats. The seasons start skews it adversely last season. The Oilers cut it around 2.50GA/G with Coffey and Knob. shining D stats last season.

These guys despite being athletes are human though. From situation I'm gauging Ekholm has been very sick, and he has been for a longwhile. That they shut it down for him probably meaning respiratory infection that wasn't going away. That can really take a lot out of you even when you get back and his game is very physical. he might not be the Ekholm we know for awhile.
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I think quite a few guys have been in the same or similar boats. It's been pretty clear we've had some injuries this year, I mean basically everyone but Draisaitl and Kulak has missed time due to illness or injury.

When you look back at last year, one thing should be noted:

Games Played

82 - Foegele, Kulak
81 - Nurse, Draisaitl, McLeod, Bouchard
80 - Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins
79 - Ceci, Ekholm
78 - Desharnais
77 - Kane
76 - McDavid

That's your entire top 6 and all of your defencemen missing less than 8 games each all year. Including the 3 game road trip which we punted sitting all of our top six.

24/25 - Games Lost Due to Injury/Illness

Arvidsson - 15
Podkolzin - 0
Draisaitl - 0
McDavid - 6
Nugent-Hopkins - 1
Hyman - 5
Kulak - 0
Ekholm - 3
Bouchard - 0
Nurse - 5
Emberson - 2

(Stetcher et al. excluded because they're being platooned and I don't want to be going through injury statuses at 2 am.)

Considering that we're only at game 63, we've lost significant time with important players. We've been pretty lucky (knock on wood) with injuries during the McDavid era. As the team gets older, this will obviously change. As will their ability to play through injuries and illness.
 
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McFlyingV said:
I said this "defence" as in the players who play that position. The Dmen on this team are better than last year by quite a bit with the addition of Walman. It's early, but his debut looked a lot like when Ekholm first got here. He looks like a major difference maker at both ends of the ice.

On an aside note which you're discussing we haven't seen the best team D this year, but I think this group is capable of it when they tighten up. They had a long stretch of great defensive play earlier this year and then loosened up recently. They can get back to it.
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Its one game and even in that game we fell apart. Keeping in mind Stars didn't have Heiskanen, Hintz, or Seguin today.

I get that its Saturday, first game with new players, we're pumped, but the tea leaves don't get read off one game. This is the same team that looked like clowns against Anaheim.

Just being honest this team looks like it has trouble protecting leads and theres some panic around. Add the exhaustion of playing in front of some of the worst goaltending in the league and it can take a toll. Team has looked tired more than last season. Impossible to know at this point.
 
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Spawn said:
Cody Ceci at 5v5 2023-2024 season:
16:47 per game at 5v5, 2.67 GF/60 | 2.49 GA/60 | 51.75 GF% | 52.84 xGF%
4G, 20P in 79 GP, +12

Ty Emberson at 5v5 2024-2025 season:
13:00 per game at 5v5, 2.38 GF/60 | 2.85 GA/60 | 45.59 GF% | 51.12 xGF%
0G 10P in 61 GP, -2

The team scored more with Ceci. Were scored against less with Ceci. This while he was playing an extra 4 minutes a night in our top 4. Ceci also contributed significantly more offense (both totals and per/60).

I'm far from a Ceci fan. He was miscast here as a top 4 d-man. But he was still a substantially better player than Emberson has been here.

Hell, forget Ceci. Emberson is a very significant step down from what Desharnais provided last season. Hopefully Emberson's better skating will let him not be as exposed as badly as Vinny has been in the playoffs.

Emberson wouldn't even be in my top 6 now though tbh.

Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Walman
Kulak-Klingberg

This would be my starting playoff lineup assuming everyone is healthy.
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This doesn't make Ceci a good dman. His on ice results are a direct reflection of how good the team around him. His underlying numbers are dreadful when you look at them relatively and have been for a while, and further analytics on puck retrievals and controlled zone exits are even worse.
 
Drivesaitl said:
Its one game and even in that game we fell apart. Keeping in mind Stars didn't have Heiskanen, Hintz, or Seguin today.

I get that its Saturday, first game with new players, we're pumped, but the tea leaves don't get read off one game. This is the same team that looked like clowns against Anaheim.

Just being honest this team looks like it has trouble protecting leads and theres some panic around. Add the exhaustion of playing in front of some of the worst goaltending in the league and it can take a toll. Team has looked tired more than last season. Impossible to know at this point.
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Alright I'll settle for Walman is on another planet compared to any D we had in the top 4 that isn't playing there this year.
 
OfCorsiDid said:
I think quite a few guys have been in the same or similar boats. It's been pretty clear we've had some injuries this year, I mean basically everyone but Draisaitl and Kulak has missed time due to illness or injury.

When you look back at last year, one thing should be noted:

Games Played

82 - Foegele, Kulak
81 - Nurse, Draisaitl, McLeod, Bouchard
80 - Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins
79 - Ceci, Ekholm
78 - Desharnais
77 - Kane
76 - McDavid

That's your entire top 6 and all of your defencemen missing less than 8 games each all year. Including the 3 game road trip which we punted sitting all of our top six.

24/25 - Games Lost Due to Injury/Illness

Arvidsson - 15
Podkolzin - 0
Draisaitl - 0
McDavid - 6
Nugent-Hopkins - 1
Hyman - 5
Kulak - 0
Ekholm - 3
Bouchard - 0
Nurse - 5
Emberson - 2

(Stetcher et al. excluded because they're being platooned and I don't want to be going through injury statuses at 2 am.)

Considering that we're only at game 63, we've lost significant time with important players. We've been pretty lucky (knock on wood) with injuries during the McDavid era. As the team gets older, this will obviously change. As will their ability to play through injuries and illness.
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Other than Kane its been pretty clear we have almost no man games lost due to injuries, relative to other clubs. Want to look at how many man games lost Dallas has? I don't know what you're really saying with this. not following your post.

Basically we knew Kane was out going in. We knew Arvid would be missing a lot of games. he always does and hes' post back surgeries now.
 
McFlyingV said:
This doesn't make Ceci a good dman. His on ice results are a direct reflection of how good the team around him. His underlying numbers are dreadful when you look at them relatively and have been for a while, and further analytics on puck retrievals and controlled zone exits are even worse.
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At the end of the day all that matters is actual results. When a player spends 3 years here outperforming poor underlying numbers I tend to suspect that he plays a type of game that isn't quantified well by current advanced stats and his value is being under represented.

And fwiw:

Cody Ceci last season -5.59% relative GF%
Ty Emberson this season: -7.29% relative GF%
 
Spawn said:
Cody Ceci at 5v5 2023-2024 season:
16:47 per game at 5v5, 2.67 GF/60 | 2.49 GA/60 | 51.75 GF% | 52.84 xGF%
4G, 20P in 79 GP, +12

Ty Emberson at 5v5 2024-2025 season:
13:00 per game at 5v5, 2.38 GF/60 | 2.85 GA/60 | 45.59 GF% | 51.12 xGF%
0G 10P in 61 GP, -2

The team scored more with Ceci. Were scored against less with Ceci. This while he was playing an extra 4 minutes a night in our top 4. Ceci also contributed significantly more offense (both totals and per/60).

I'm far from a Ceci fan. He was miscast here as a top 4 d-man. But he was still a substantially better player than Emberson has been here.

Hell, forget Ceci. Emberson is a very significant step down from what Desharnais provided last season. Hopefully Emberson's better skating will let him not be as exposed as badly as Vinny has been in the playoffs.

Emberson wouldn't even be in my top 6 now though tbh.

Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Walman
Kulak-Klingberg

This would be my starting playoff lineup assuming everyone is healthy.
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This is all great.

But:
Spawn said:
Cody Ceci at 5v5 2023-2024 season:
16:47 per game at 5v5, 2.67 GF/60 | 2.49 GA/60 | 51.75 GF% | 52.84 xGF%
4G, 20P in 79 GP, +12

Ty Emberson at 5v5 2024-2025 season:
13:00 per game at 5v5, 2.38 GF/60 | 2.85 GA/60 | 45.59 GF% | 51.12 xGF%
0G 10P in 61 GP, -2
Click to expand...

So if we cut through all that nonsense you wrote we get to the fact that yes, Emberson is a younger cheaper Cody Ceci who's growing into the role on a new team.

Fortunately we have better options. Stetcher is fine. I'm not sold on Klingberg but he doesn't make me want to douse my eyes in bleach so that's fine.

Either way getting that f***in worked up over a guy that's gonna play 16-13 minutes a night is madness.
 
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Sheikyerbouti said:
Yes he will, I totally agree, but he was good without the puck, physical and PKed! If he can poor man Bouchard, we have massive leverage on Bouchard (18 mins tonight).


Bowman deserves credit. We didn't even see Walman get silky or shoot and he had a big impact on the game. Definitely not an offensive defenseman. HFMains compared him to barrie lol


But.. he's a big, fast, puckmover, who lays hits, Pk's and blocks shots and has a good slapshot..... so something is up. Perhaps they feel McDavid can reign him in because there is an existing relationship.
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Walman a D but I'll mention another factor, and maybe a similar player story. Joe Murphy came here also as a Detroit prodigy and he'd been up and down and had problems and never really got to his whole game until he came into a good team with a good room and then he really started to hit the ground running and a point in time where became our best player.

The point I guess is that Walman has never been on a good club and now he is. he's thrilled, and its Saturday Night HNIC in a marquee game. This was the top NHL billing NHL game of the night and Walman was in it. that has to feel great.

I'm guessing Walman can't sleep tonight.
 
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fireantz said:
We’ve looked like a team with no energy for two weeks. The new guys have relit the fire in the last two games. Keep it going
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I think people kind of jumped off the deep end with their play after the four nations. This team was playing very well for a long time before that.

The new additions are fitting in well so far, and more to come. The roster with Ekholm, Frederic, and Kane back has a very nice blend of size, speed, and skill.
 
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OfCorsiDid said:
This is all great.

But:


So if we cut through all that nonsense you wrote we get to the fact that yes, Emberson is a younger cheaper Cody Ceci who's growing into the role on a new team.

Fortunately we have better options. Stetcher is fine. I'm not sold on Klingberg but he doesn't make me want to douse my eyes in bleach so that's fine.

Either way getting that f***in worked up over a guy that's gonna play 16-13 minutes a night is madness.
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How am I getting worked up? Someone asked to see the numbers so I provided them. And if by nonsense you mean actual tangible on ice results than... sure I guess that is nonsense lol
 
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Spawn said:
At the end of the day all that matters is actual results. When a player spends 3 years here outperforming poor underlying numbers I tend to suspect that he plays a type of game that isn't quantified well by current advanced stats and his value is being under represented.

And fwiw:

Cody Ceci last season -5.59% relative GF%
Ty Emberson this season: -7.29% relative GF%
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One of them makes 3x the other on the salary cap.
 
Drivesaitl said:
Other than Kane its been pretty clear we have almost no man games lost due to injuries, relative to other clubs. Want to look at how many man games lost Dallas has? I don't know what you're really saying with this. not following your post.

Basically we knew Kane was out going in. We knew Arvid would be missing a lot of games. he always does and hes' post back surgeries now.
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I think you're looking at it wrong. Yes relative to other teams we aren't doing so bad, but relative to our previous seasons this has been more injuries and illnesses than usual. That disrupts chemistry, especially when you have 2 new guys in the top 6 and on the back end. It's not something they've really dealt with before.
 
Spawn said:
:help: I'm not the one who brought up the comparison. The original quote was that he was a younger cheaper Ceci. All I'm pointing out is that he's not close to Ceci.
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Your stats only supported the other argument that he was a younger cheaper Ceci.
 
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