Bruins old and slow? Check the stats!

[Aurinko]

A team that's constantly above average but never wins is one of the worst places to be in pro sports.

I dont know about that. Bruins have built a lecacy by being a defensive juggernaut close to two decades now on a sport where all other 31 teams yoyo around in the rankings.

 

[Bank Shot]

I've never heard this about the Pens. The secret sauce for the Pens was being a crappy team at the right time,

Boston just manages to find gems left to right in all facets

Drafting guys like Bergeron, Krejci, Marchand, Lucic, Pastrnak, McAvoy and Swayman past the middle of the 1st round and beyond, to signing an undrafted former ECHL goalie Tim Thomas.

Signing a future Norris winner and perennial candidate in Zdeno Chara, to trading a Calder winner Raycroft for a prospect goalie in Tuuka Rask.

More recently, their amateur and pro scouting continues to be one of the best. Zacha, Coyle, Ullmark, Hampus Lindholm were all acquired through trading and free agency.

It remains to be seen, but I think drafting Lohrei (super bullish) and Poitras in the second round of their drafts will pay long term dividends.

It's not like nobody else wanted to sign Chara. He was probably the number one free agent that year. Happened to choose a team that missed the playoffs by a mile. That is a story that doesn't happen for Columbus or a Western Canadian team.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Bruins dropped off 26 points last year from the previous. They didn’t add youth and speed with their big UFA signings. They need Swayman. Or they could have another big drop in points.

No Swayman IMO will put them behind TB, no doubt. Still don't see them being caught by Sabres, Wings, Sens, Philly or Washington.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Defensively yes, but up front that's not entirely true.

Up front you got Knies, Robertson, Cowan, Greb, Mintinen either on the team or very close to cracking the roster, and I'll throw Holmberg in there too, because with all the rumours around Kampf and Jarnkork, if one of them could moved I think Holmberg steps in.

In net in depends on Woll, if he can stay healthy they could be set for a decade, if not they need to find somebody else.

On defense though, I agree, it's an old defense for sure.

Hopefully Danford can be a piece but even if he can he's years away.



They aren't coached to be slow, they are slow, you can't coach speed either you have it, or you don't, they don't

Pastrnak had plenty of speed to beat the Toronto gods Marner and Reilly.

 

[PaulD]

First, you didn’t use “all” the best wingers, as you ignored counter-examples like Tkachuk, Marner, and Kaprizov. That’s the definition of cherry picking.

Second, you’re not even answering the right question. It’s not “what age are the best wingers in the game”, it’s “when did these wingers hit their peak season”. 2024 was an unusual season for older wingers in that we saw Kucherov and Panarin both go nova at an age when most are gradually falling off — those were historically relevant seasons, especially Kucherov’s, and not part of some greater pattern. Even at that, late-20s wingers generally experienced slight fall-offs from the prior years. Pasta had 47-63-110 last year, but the year before that it was 61-52-113. Rantanen had 42-62-104, but the prior year it was 55-50-105. That looks an awful lot like two guys peaking out as line-drivers and starting to crest that hill to where they start passing the puck a little more. Give it another couple of years and we’ll know how it plays out, but the strong likelihood is a gradual erosion in their production as they hit 30… everyone can’t be a Kucherov.

Thirdly, pull the lens back and get away from the individualized examples. It’s a statistical fact that skaters typically hit their peaks around age 24, suffer a slight falloff through about age 27, and then decline steadily. This chart is just one example but the data has been crunched over and over with the same results.

A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

View attachment 910544

View attachment 910545


Obviously some players will defy that curve, as that’s how averages work. But it’s not smart to bet your franchise on any given player being that guy. But if you think you’re smart enough to do it, go right ahead. Again, a couple years will bear out the results.

The Bruins will have their down time.....like every team in pro sports.
But its funny listening to the Bs haters predicting loudly and constantly that it's coming.
Homer Hayes on Overdrive was the best one and maybe the loudest one before the 22/23 season with his hot take" the Bruins will miss the play offs". They went to burn the league down with the best season in NHL history. LOL

 

[PaulD]

It was just a point made in the flow of conversation. If you don’t want to think about it, don’t.

Maybe he is thinking about you guys all calling for the same thing in Sept 2022.....just before the Bruins slaughtered the NHL history books with the best season of all time.

But yea, call for something every year and one if these years you're bound to finally get it right.
Unless of course one is calling for the Toronto Maple Leafs to win in the play offs.

 

[wintersej]

First, you didn’t use “all” the best wingers, as you ignored counter-examples like Tkachuk, Marner, and Kaprizov. That’s the definition of cherry picking.

Second, you’re not even answering the right question. It’s not “what age are the best wingers in the game”, it’s “when did these wingers hit their peak season”. 2024 was an unusual season for older wingers in that we saw Kucherov and Panarin both go nova at an age when most are gradually falling off — those were historically relevant seasons, especially Kucherov’s, and not part of some greater pattern. Even at that, late-20s wingers generally experienced slight fall-offs from the prior years. Pasta had 47-63-110 last year, but the year before that it was 61-52-113. Rantanen had 42-62-104, but the prior year it was 55-50-105. That looks an awful lot like two guys peaking out as line-drivers and starting to crest that hill to where they start passing the puck a little more. Give it another couple of years and we’ll know how it plays out, but the strong likelihood is a gradual erosion in their production as they hit 30… everyone can’t be a Kucherov.

Thirdly, pull the lens back and get away from the individualized examples. It’s a statistical fact that skaters typically hit their peaks around age 24, suffer a slight falloff through about age 27, and then decline steadily. This chart is just one example but the data has been crunched over and over with the same results.

A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

View attachment 910544

View attachment 910545


Obviously some players will defy that curve, as that’s how averages work. But it’s not smart to bet your franchise on any given player being that guy. But if you think you’re smart enough to do it, go right ahead. Again, a couple years will bear out the results.

I do think it’s fair when looking at these average to want to see top talent be run of the mill guys put in different buckets to see how much things change. Of course you are right in everything you are saying, but Boston fans have just seen a pile of counter examples with Bergeron, Krejci, Chara and Marchand so you can understand if there is some belief, valid or not, that there is something in the water (or culture) up here that has kept guys going longer. Starts driving at how much of decline it based on physical skills or desire and effort changing with age. Obviously, it’s both, but there is more control over the latter. Maybe there is something there? Maybe it’s been luck? A little of both?

 

[wintersej]

As far as the OP, the Bruins obviously are not old anymore. They ain’t young either. Vast majority of the team is in their prime age range. Poitras, Beecher and Lorhei (and Lysell if he makes it) obviously developing, and Marchand is past his prime (and Johnson if he makes it). Coyle is technically past his age prime too, but also just put up his best season so weird to say he is past prime now.

But everyone else is in their prime.

But it’s not a particularly quick team. They have added some more speed in the bottom six which was needed, but it’s still a team that is gonna get smoked in 3 on 3.

 

[scoopscj]

Every year me, The Bruins are old, slow, not making the playoffs. Me in April.. "I know nothing about hockey."

This is me shutting up about this topic.

 

[Fatass]

Every year me, The Bruins are old, slow, not making the playoffs. Me in April.. "I know nothing about hockey."

This is me shutting up about this topic.

Are the two big dollar UFA adds from July 1 fast? Zadorov and Lindholm are not fleet of foot. They aren’t young either. The Bruins had a big drop off in points last year from the previous. I can see them falling off more this year. Imo they are a bubble playoff team now. 95-100 points. And it’s because they got older and slower on July 1.

 

[squashmaple]

It's not like nobody else wanted to sign Chara. He was probably the number one free agent that year. Happened to choose a team that missed the playoffs by a mile. That is a story that doesn't happen for Columbus or a Western Canadian team.

This is a very in-poor-taste joke. At least I hope it’s a joke and you’re not this stupid.

 

[danpantz]

Are the two big dollar UFA adds from July 1 fast? Zadorov and Lindholm are not fleet of foot. They aren’t young either. The Bruins had a big drop off in points last year from the previous. I can see them falling off more this year. Imo they are a bubble playoff team now. 95-100 points. And it’s because they got older and slower on July 1.

They also lost pat maroon, derek Forbort, and JVR though.

 

[PhilKesselFatCamp]

Are the two big dollar UFA adds from July 1 fast? Zadorov and Lindholm are not fleet of foot. They aren’t young either. The Bruins had a big drop off in points last year from the previous. I can see them falling off more this year. Imo they are a bubble playoff team now. 95-100 points. And it’s because they got older and slower on July 1.

Lol what? Zadorov is a top 20 fastest skating D in the NHL.

And Lindholm isn't McDavid, but he's not Pat Maroon, either. He's an above average skater on a team who desperately needed a top C. The Bruins absolutely got faster on July 1, especially when considering the players that left in FA (Forbort, Maroon, JVR).

 

[Fatass]

Lol what? Zadorov is a top 20 fastest skating D in the NHL.

And Lindholm isn't McDavid, but he's not Pat Maroon, either. He's an above average skater on a team who desperately needed a top C. The Bruins absolutely got faster on July 1, especially when considering the players that left in FA (Forbort, Maroon, JVR).

Zadorov has good top end speed but is extremely slow in tight spaces. He plays slow because of that lack of quickness. Lindholm as a number one centre? Lindholm is at a point in his career where he is ideally placed in a 3C role. And no Swayman. Bubble team in my opinion.

 

[danpantz]

Zadorov has good top end speed but is extremely slow in tight spaces. He plays slow because of that lack of quickness. Lindholm as a number one centre? Lindholm is at a point in his career where he is ideally placed in a 3C role. And no Swayman. Bubble team in my opinion.

Lindholm is 29! Yuck! Might as well take him out back and put a bullet in his head.

Old man is DUN

 

[Fatass]

Lindholm is 29! Yuck! Might as well take him out back and put a bullet in his head.

Old man is DUN

Okay, that was funny and did cause me to spew my morning coffee.

 

[NyQuil]

Thirdly, pull the lens back and get away from the individualized examples. It’s a statistical fact that skaters typically hit their peaks around age 24, suffer a slight falloff through about age 27, and then decline steadily. This chart is just one example but the data has been crunched over and over with the same results.

I'd like to see if it holds up in the post-season in the same way. While the sample would necessarily be smaller, have the numbers been crunched exclusively for the playoffs?

I still have the anecdotal and statistically unsupported opinion that veterans learn to keep something in the tank for the post-season.

 

[PaulD]

Are the two big dollar UFA adds from July 1 fast? Zadorov and Lindholm are not fleet of foot. They aren’t young either. The Bruins had a big drop off in points last year from the previous. I can see them falling off more this year. Imo they are a bubble playoff team now. 95-100 points. And it’s because they got older and slower on July 1.

"Bruins had a big drop off in points last season" Yep. And still finished ahead of the super star high flying Gods of Toronto. lol

 

[Fatass]

"Bruins had a big drop off in points last season" Yep. And still finished ahead of the super star high flying Gods of Toronto. lol

Which was fun to watch, especially to IT playoff win. But that’s last year. IMO the Bruins got older and slower on July 1. I’m not a fan of those two big dollar signings.

 

[Bank Shot]

This is a very in-poor-taste joke. At least I hope it’s a joke and you’re not this stupid.

All I was saying is that a place like Columbus is generally an undesirable market, and Boston is a destination. Don't try to turn it into something it is not.

Same goes for New York. Do they get a bunch of credit for trading for Adam Fox after he refused to play in both Calgary and Carolina?

 

[wetcoast]

I don’t think anyone counts the Bruins out at all

I have in the past yet somehow they are able to be greater than the sum of their parts but I wonder how they will fre to start the season with swayman out.

They have a great set of Dmen and have added Lindholm but Marchand is getting old (he has declined 3 straight season in a row and will be 36 on opening night) and Pasta is the only elite forward they have and their second best forward this season might not even be a top 50 forward in the NHL.

They will be interesting to watch.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

I have in the past yet somehow they are able to be greater than the sum of their parts but I wonder how they will fre to start the season with swayman out.

They have a great set of Dmen and have added Lindholm but Marchand is getting old (he has declined 3 straight season in a row and will be 36 on opening night) and Pasta is the only elite forward they have and their second best forward this season might not even be a top 50 forward in the NHL.

They will be interesting to watch.

Swayman is a big loss but they also have seemed to be an elite goalie factory in recent years

They have seemed on the cusp of a decline but yet it never happens, it’s baffling

 

[squashmaple]

All I was saying is that a place like Columbus is generally an undesirable market, and Boston is a destination. Don't try to turn it into something it is not.

Same goes for New York. Do they get a bunch of credit for trading for Adam Fox after he refused to play in both Calgary and Carolina?

Well, at least you are stupid and not malicious. So here, I’ll help.

Johnny. Gaudreau.

 

[wetcoast]

Swayman is a big loss but they also have seemed to be an elite goalie factory in recent years

They have seemed on the cusp of a decline but yet it never happens, it’s baffling

It's that defense and the sum being greater than the parts thing but it will happen one year, their pipeline is very weak.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Well last season they experienced a 16 point drop in the standings and were a first round out. That’s easy to understand as they lost Bergeron, Krejci, Orlov and replaced them with some meh aging guys. They were still a good-enough team, no shame in 109 points, but the people saying they were due for a sharp falloff were… right.

This year they’ve lost Ullmark and DeBrusk, and gave 7 and 6 year contracts to Elias Lindholm and Zadorov who are both about to turn 30. Marchand turns 37 this year and is coming off a 67-point season. What exactly are you saying you expect from them going forward? Improvement? If so, how much and where do you see that coming from?

A 16pt drop because they just had the greatest season in NHL history.

They were still 4th in the league, a whopping 5 points from first

They lost in the 2nd round to the eventual cup winners

What are you going on about?

Well, at least you are stupid and not malicious. So here, I’ll help.

Johnny. Gaudreau.

On player in like 25 years doesn’t suddenly make you a desirable location.

Boston undoubtedly gets an advantage over Columbus