Bruins old and slow? Check the stats!

[Sasha Orlov]

It's that defense and the sum being greater than the parts thing but it will happen one year, theor pipeline is very weak.

I think you are probably correct, I will continue to pray on their downfall

 

[tarheelhockey]

Oh yea, you're definitely missing something.

agree to disagree

BTW.....who's your team. As I've stated I'm a Habs fan.
My guess yours is Canucks or Leafs.

Cheers

LOL no, check my username and avatar.

Important context: I grew up as a Bruins fan during their era of 30 consecutive playoff seasons. This isn’t even my first rodeo with this specific team having this specific conversation.

Its not an argument, its an observation. The fact that Panarin and Kucherov are universally regarded as the best wingers in hockey and just had their best years in their early 30s is certainly relevant.

I would not, unless I am including Pasta himself, there isn't a single winger better than Kucherov. Who is in his early 30s. Nobody thinks Tkachuk is in that conversation, so I don't see your point.

Seems like an odd question to wonder if Pasta will be just as productive from 28-33+ as he was in his earlier years as wingers tend to age well into their early 30s, and its most likely that he will perform well for the next 5+ years rather than not. He may even have a career year ahead of him still. You suggesting otherwise came off as silly, and I think you know it.

Look man, I already gave you a full-blown statistical study shooting you down on this. I don’t know what to tell you, other than that objectively it is not nearly as common for players to have their best seasons after 30 as it is for them to be in a full blown decline by then. Even Jagr, with his superhuman longevity, was never better than in his mid/late 20s. Even Selanne, who was brilliant at 40, was nowhere near his mid/late 20s form by then. The list of exceptions to this is very, very short. That’s hockey, acknowledge it or not. Not my issue if you want to dig your heels against reality.

Maybe he is thinking about you guys all calling for the same thing in Sept 2022.....just before the Bruins slaughtered the NHL history books with the best season of all time.

But yea, call for something every year and one if these years you're bound to finally get it right.
Unless of course one is calling for the Toronto Maple Leafs to win in the play offs.

You have to admit, 2022-23 caught everyone off guard. Even people who were high on the Bruins didn’t see them running roughshod over the league like that. Sometimes everything just comes together in a way that seems like a fever dream afterward. Ullmark posting a .938? Only one guy on the President’s Trophy winner scoring more than 67 points? If anyone actually had predicted that, there would’ve been no basis for it. There are crazy seasons and then there are crazy seasons. It was fun to watch.

I do think it’s fair when looking at these average to want to see top talent be run of the mill guys put in different buckets to see how much things change. Of course you are right in everything you are saying, but Boston fans have just seen a pile of counter examples with Bergeron, Krejci, Chara and Marchand so you can understand if there is some belief, valid or not, that there is something in the water (or culture) up here that has kept guys going longer. Starts driving at how much of decline it based on physical skills or desire and effort changing with age. Obviously, it’s both, but there is more control over the latter. Maybe there is something there? Maybe it’s been luck? A little of both?

I'd like to see if it holds up in the post-season in the same way. While the sample would necessarily be smaller, have the numbers been crunched exclusively for the playoffs?

I still have the anecdotal and statistically unsupported opinion that veterans learn to keep something in the tank for the post-season.

I’d be interested in seeing the numbers crunched different ways as well, but I think the general pattern appears to hold up. Top players do of course tend to play well even into their 30s, but it’s rare that they continue to play as well as they once did.

@wintersej you’re putting your finger on something I referred to upthread, that people tend to develop magical thinking around teams that have had a run of success. It’s extremely difficult to string together back-to-back cohorts of elite players, as Detroit did in the 2000s. It only happens every once in a while, anywhere in the league. But once it happens, people have a tendency to think that organization has cracked the code somehow, and that they have some sort of magic quality that nobody else can copy. In reality it’s typically just that they stumbled into an overlooked future superstar or two while already a well-built contending team, and that’s not a replicable feat without lottery-like luck. But people will flat-out refuse to hear that logic when they’re in the heat of a winning streak.

What are you going on about?

Don’t worry about it, you’re coming in late.

 

[BadBruins]

So, you’re making the comparison to a Penguins team that missed the playoffs?

I get what you’re saying, but the reality is the Bruins are shedding talent year-over-year. Being young sounds great but unless that youth is replacing the talent level that departed, it means the team is taking a step back to reload.

To the premise of the thread, someone who said the Bruins were old at the end of last season was correct. It doesn’t make sense to come back after a bunch of 35 year olds drop off the roster over the summer and say those people were wrong. The reason the Bruins are so young right now is because they were so old 4 months ago.

I think you make some good points in this thread. Ultimately though, the narrative of being old and slow comes from the outside IMO, which often refuses to recognize that they've replaced a lot of that "talent" both internally and via trades/free agency. And continue to do so.

Even when they went to the finals in 2019, the general perception was that Zdeno Chara was still the backbone of the Bruins d-core. That torch had already been passed on to McAvoy by that point. For quite some time IMO. There was still this media driven narrative that it was their last kick at the can, mainly due to Chara's age and decline. Not that dissimilar to Bergeron and Krejci departing recently. Both still very good and effective players, but like Zdeno Chara in 2019, they weren't driving the ship anymore. Still great leadership and all that, but the torch had already been passed before that historic regular season.

 

[Bank Shot]

Well, at least you are stupid and not malicious. So here, I’ll help.

Johnny. Gaudreau.

He didn't even want to sign in Columbus, but the Flyers wouldn't offer him a contract.

Quit trying to garner sympathy by invoking a tragedy. It is embarrassing for you.

 

[squashmaple]

He didn't even want to sign in Columbus, but the Flyers wouldn't offer him a contract.

Quit trying to garner sympathy by invoking a tragedy. It is embarrassing for you.

You keep poosting factually incorrect things that are easy to verify. One of should be embarrassed here and it's not me.

 

[squashmaple]

On player in like 25 years doesn’t suddenly make you a desirable location.

Boston undoubtedly gets an advantage over Columbus

The poster said the top free agent never signs in Columbus. Only Boston is special in that regard, of course. Except the top free agent not just of that summer but the past decade... chose Columbus. Turned down more money from the Islanders and Devils to do it, too. Maybe he would've preferred the Flyers, but the fact is they didn't even offer him anything to accept or turn down.

 

[AD1066]

Well-built, well-managed team, but Pastrnak isn't enough to carry them to a Cup. No elite talent elsewhere, just a bunch of solid pieces.

 

[nbwingsfan]

The poster said the top free agent never signs in Columbus. Only Boston is special in that regard, of course. Except the top free agent not just of that summer but the past decade... chose Columbus. Turned down more money from the Islanders and Devils to do it, too. Maybe he would've preferred the Flyers, but the fact is they didn't even offer him anything to accept or turn down.

Again… one single example.

Essentially all of the top players Columbus has had has wanted to leave.

It’s just simply not a desirable location like NY and Boston.

That isn’t even a debate

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Look man, I already gave you a full-blown statistical study shooting you down on this. I don’t know what to tell you, other than that objectively it is not nearly as common for players to have their best seasons after 30 as it is for them to be in a full blown decline by then. Even Jagr, with his superhuman longevity, was never better than in his mid/late 20s. Even Selanne, who was brilliant at 40, was nowhere near his mid/late 20s form by then. The list of exceptions to this is very, very short. That’s hockey, acknowledge it or not. Not my issue if you want to dig your heels against reality.

Ridiculous goal post moving, and your claims of posting stats that support your argument are silly at best. You even bring up Jagr after all that? He had two of his best seasons at 29 and 34 years old where he won the Art Ross and the Pearson in respective years.

Pasta being 28 with plenty of his best years ahead of him makes your comment about the Bruins best players being old look ridiculous, but you just can't admit you are wrong so you have to say plenty more off the wall stuff and you can't even be bothered to fact check your comments.

 

[CanadienShark]

Didn't Kucherov just put up a historic season last year at 31? Didn't Panarin finish 4th in scoring at age 32 with his best season? Considering the best wingers in the world are all late 20s/early 30s, I think its safe to say you have no idea what you are talking about.

Congratulations on discovering the exceptions as opposed to the norm.

 

[Fatass]

Ridiculous goal post moving, and your claims of posting stats that support your argument are silly at best. You even bring up Jagr after all that? He had two of his best seasons at 29 and 34 years old where he won the Art Ross and the Pearson in respective years.

Pasta being 28 with plenty of his best years ahead of him makes your comment about the Bruins best players being old look ridiculous, but you just can't admit you are wrong so you have to say plenty more off the wall stuff and you can't even be bothered to fact check your comments.

Bruins two big UFA adds this summer are older and slow. Clearly, as a team, these two don’t make the Bruin’s faster. Add to the mix no Swayman and the club is going to struggle to keep up with the good teams in their division.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Congratulations on discovering the exceptions as opposed to the norm.

The norm is for players to fall off a cliff in their early 30s? Since you seem to be joining Tarheel in his ridiculous argument, can we get a list of players who fell off a cliff in their early 30s due to age?

 

[CanadienShark]

The norm is for players to fall off a cliff in their early 30s? Since you seem to be joining Tarheel in his ridiculous argument, can we get a list of players who fell off a cliff in their early 30s due to age?

Nobody ever said "fall off a cliff."

You're hearing people argue that it's atypical to peak in their 30s and trying to twist that into an argument that NOBODY is making.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Again… one single example.

Essentially all of the top players Columbus has had has wanted to leave.

It’s just simply not a desirable location like NY and Boston.

That isn’t even a debate

Columbus is a cheap market. With JG passing, they are below the cap floor. They don't pay their star players, thats why they move. Columbus is a fine city that players would want to play in even if it doesn't attract people like NY and Boston.

 

[MartyOwns]

guys he invoked gaudreau, he won the argument.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Nobody ever said "fall off a cliff."

You're hearing people argue that it's atypical to peak in their 30s and trying to twist that into an argument that NOBODY is making.

Nobody ever said that its atypical for players to peak in their 30s. The claim was that players won't maintain their pace of play from their late 20s into their 30s. Its pretty obvious if you look around the league, players maintain their pace just fine all the way up until ~35. Some players even have their best season in their early 30s.

 

[CanadienShark]

Nobody ever said that its atypical for players to peak in their 30s. The claim was that players won't maintain their pace of play from their late 20s into their 30s. Its pretty obvious if you look around the league, players maintain their pace just fine all the way up until ~35. Some players even have their best season in their early 30s.

I literally just said it.

No, normally players gradually decline until ≈ 35, which is when the "fall of a cliff" typically happens. Two extreme outliers aren't proof the the contrary.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Well-built, well-managed team, but Pastrnak isn't enough to carry them to a Cup. No elite talent elsewhere, just a bunch of solid pieces.

Well built and managed teams usually win cups. I think I heard that Bergeron couldn't carry them to a cup back in the day too. I also heard the same about Eichel and Vegas recently. I also heard it about my Blues in 2019. Not sure why Pasta needs to carry one of the most well managed and built teams to a cup.

 

[Fatass]

Nobody ever said that its atypical for players to peak in their 30s. The claim was that players won't maintain their pace of play from their late 20s into their 30s. Its pretty obvious if you look around the league, players maintain their pace just fine all the way up until ~35. Some players even have their best season in their early 30s.

Actuslly, no players do not (as a collective) maintain their level of play from their peak in their 20’s to their mid 30’s. In fact most players are out of the league when they get to 35.
All clubs that were good will age out. That’s the nature of the league. The Bruins are clearly on that path and could be at the tipping point. It’s a great hockey city though so regardless of the club’s inevitable decline the fans will still be there.

 

[Fatass]

Pasta could be an exception to the rule. But it’s far more likely he will see a decline in production into his 30’s. It’s just the nature of the beast. This “aging out” is why clubs who were good fall off. And the Bruins are definitely “falling off”.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Pasta could be an exception to the rule. But it’s far more likely he will see a decline in production into his 30’s. It’s just the nature of the beast. This “aging out” is why clubs who were good fall off. And the Bruins are definitely “falling off”.

I don't want to get too heavily in semantics here. The heavy decline for players doesn't typically happen right at 30, and history has shown us recently that 30/31/32 can be some of the most productive years for players. Its unlikely Pasta falls off at 30/31. He would actually be the exception to the rule if he decline in the next few years, and people would be very confused if he did.

 

[Fatass]

I don't want to get too heavily in semantics here. The heavy decline for players doesn't typically happen right at 30, and history has shown us recently that 30/31/32 can be some of the most productive years for players. It’s unlikely Pasta falls off at 30/31. He would actually be the exception to the rule if he decline in the next few years, and people would be very confused if he did.

Pasta is a great player, that’s for sure. But the Bruins are, as a club, in decline. So in 2-3 years, when Pasta gets into his 30’s, he’s going to have a much lesser group around him. It’s very likely that drop in the club combined with his natural decline will see a drop off in his overall production.

 

[Score08]

Bruins two big UFA adds this summer are older and slow. Clearly, as a team, these two don’t make the Bruin’s faster. Add to the mix no Swayman and the club is going to struggle to keep up with the good teams in their division.

Swayman will be the starting goalie this year. They filled some holes this off season, & constructed one of the best blue lines in the nhl . They won’t be struggling as much as you’d like. They finished 2nd in their division on the final game of the reg season to the cup champs, and this years roster is much improved compared to last years.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Columbus is a cheap market. With JG passing, they are below the cap floor. They don't pay their star players, thats why they move. Columbus is a fine city that players would want to play in even if it doesn't attract people like NY and Boston.

Your last sentence was Litterally the whole point lol.

That poster got strangely upset when people pointed out that Columbus doesn’t get the same draw of the bigger markets.

Despite it being an indisputable fact

Pasta is a great player, that’s for sure. But the Bruins are, as a club, in decline. So in 2-3 years, when Pasta gets into his 30’s, he’s going to have a much lesser group around him. It’s very likely that drop in the club combined with his natural decline will see a drop off in his overall production.

Who’s going to have a major decline in 2-3 years outside of Marchand?

 

[CanadienShark]

Obviously you jumped in the middle of an argument. Can you explain what is so funny? Usually laughing during a disagreement is a sign of a mental disorder.

You can't just make baseless claims and expect people to engage with you. I took the most recent season we just had and noticed that the best winger in the world just battled in his early 30s for his best season against the Hart winner that is knocking on 30 himself. Players like Sedin and Marty St.Louis won Art Ross trophies and became their best version in their early 30s. Most players are extremely productive into their early 30s, and its just an observation.


So if you are going to post otherwise, and want to illustrate that Pasta is old for a winger is unlikely to continue to post some of his best years going forward, you might need to actually support that argument.


Well, we aren't talking about that. Early 30s is what is being mentioned. Pasta is 28, and I can guarantee you if you polled people they would bet Pasta will maintain his pace over the next 5 years, and even post a career year in there somewhere, rather than show signs of decline.

I don't think you're in any place to "diagnose" any mental disorders. Frankly, such a comment really says more about you than anything.

You're citing outliers and claiming it's the norm. That's simply not based in reality. There's literal stats to back this up, which you continue to ignore.