Value of: Brett Pesce

[GoldiFox]

Nope, he's a 2 or 3 d-man, like Larsson is when he's playing at his best.

And Nylander is a 80-90 point League MVP like Hall when he is playing his best? Bit of a stretch.

 

[Roboturner913]

I'd say Pesce and Hamilton share time as the "second pair" RHD considering they have almost the same exact ATOI (currently Hamilton is averaging 19:44 to Pesce's 19:43, just one second more, almost certainly owing largely to the fact the Canes had 22 minutes on the PP last game)

Interestingly Pesce is getting a surprising % of o-zone starts at 62 percent, d-zone at 37 percent where you'd think those numbers should be more or less reversed.

 

[BAM]

And Nylander is a 80-90 point League MVP like Hall when he is playing his best? Bit of a stretch.

When did I say that?

The other poster said Pesce is the Hall like talent, I disagree. I think Larsson and Pesce are similar players (great #3's, good #2). Nylander has a lot of potential but it remains to be seen if he's got Hall like upside, the tools are all there however.

 

[GoldiFox]

When did I say that?

The other poster said Pesce is the Hall like talent, I disagree. I think Larsson and Pesce are similar players (great #3's, good #2). Nylander has a lot of potential but it remains to be seen if he's got Hall like upside, the tools are all there however.

Hall for Larsson is lambasted on HF because Larsson stagnated as a #2/3 while Hall's (healthy) talent was realized.

I don't think it is so clear that Pesce would certainly stagnate at what he currently is and that Nylander certainly has more upside. I'd say it is closer to 50/50. Pesce could develop into the stud top-pairing D while Nylander could fail to transition to Center and stagnate as a 60 point skill winger. All that is for certain is the contract risk will be much higher with Nylander ($?? million per year) than Pesce ($4 million a year x 6 years).

 

[ITM]

And Nylander is a 80-90 point League MVP like Hall when he is playing his best? Bit of a stretch.

Take Pastrnak or Ehlers or Point from the 2014 Draft class and the notion that Nylander improves upon his two initial 60 point seasons to 80 points in his next two seasons is hardly an exaggerated expectation. William Nylander is going to be a top first line player in this league for years to come. It's reasonable to conclude he's going to be amongst the best of his draft class.

Taking nothing away from Slavin or Pesce, I don't think if Nylander's comparables were included in potential models involving defensemen, that stand alone offers of Pastrnak for Pesce, Point for Pesce or Ehlers for Pesce would be taken seriously by either fan bases.

Nor should it be entertained as a viable model to acquire or deal William Nylander.

Hall for Larsson is lambasted on HF because Larsson stagnated as a #2/3 while Hall's (healthy) talent was realized.

I don't think it is so clear that Pesce would certainly stagnate at what he currently is and that Nylander certainly has more upside. I'd say it is closer to 50/50. Pesce could develop into the stud top-pairing D while Nylander could fail to transition to Center and stagnate as a 60 point skill winger. All that is for certain is the contract risk will be much higher with Nylander ($?? million per year) than Pesce ($4 million a year x 6 years).

The aim in Toronto isn't to necessarily transition Nylander to center. Matthews, Tavares and Kadri down the middle isn't likely to change with the return of Nylander. Nylander can play center and has played center when needed, though the need hasn't been great. His puck possession, zone-entry numbers are clear indicators that he can drive play, whatever position he starts at.

As for stagnating at sixty-ish points...Mindful that it's taken Pesce over 200 games to approach 60 points, and that a defenceman never mentioned but always held in highest consideration when talking about young, offensive, right-handed defensemen, who just happens to be a Torontonian, Doug Hamilton...Is it reasonable to conclude that there's as good a chance that Pesce improves while Nylander stagnates when the starting points are so completely dissimilar?

If I'm the Canes GM and I see Nylander for Pesce, knowing full well I've Adam Fox and Jake Bean coming up the pipeline, there's zero hesitation to backfill Pesce with current D and backfill the backfill with Carrick. The monetary position means nothing when your club is in the best cap position in the league.

At the end of the day it comes down to objective value and objectively, William Nylander as a principal renders Brett Pesce as a supplemental piece at best

Leafs fans offering Nylander plus for Pesce is like some bizarre fantasy hockey equivalent of virtue-signaling.

 

[bluedevil58]

I am thinking Pesce can probably return a Marner. Especially if Larson returned a Hall. Not sure an unsigned Nylander is ideal. If Nylander is on a favorable contract then a 1 for 1 might be feasible.

 

[justafan22]

nylander for pesce is like jones for johansen in terms of value

 

[firstemperor]

I am thinking Pesce can probably return a Marner. Especially if Larson returned a Hall. Not sure an unsigned Nylander is ideal. If Nylander is on a favorable contract then a 1 for 1 might be feasible.

If Hall-Larsson was used as a barometer for every trade on here, then we could probably get a top 10 forward for Zaitsev as well.

 

[bluedevil58]

nylander for pesce is like jones for johansen in terms of value

Not if Nylander wants 8M a year which he is clearly not worth.

 

[justafan22]

Not if Nylander wants 8M a year which he is clearly not worth.

Let's say he signs 6.5 x 6 tomorrow, IMO it's fair.

 

[bluedevil58]

Let's say he signs 6.5 x 6 tomorrow, IMO it's fair.

That is a different story. I will agree there.

 

[drewjenks]

With what cap space? The entire reason Nylander and the Leafs can't come together is because of the upcoming cap crunch and asset return crunch (ie spending 38 mil on 4 forwards when you have one good defenseman).

Sides which, this doesn't happen. Carolina offersheeted Fedorov with a massive bonus if they made the Conference Finals, and what did Detroit do...?

Well if we didn't have Matthews anymore.....

 

[Scott Stevens]

No deal. Hall for Larsson 2.0

Nylander isn’t nearly as good as Hall. Awful comparison.

 

[Tit]

Nylander isn’t nearly as good as Hall. Awful comparison.

And you can't cite that as a reference when discussing trades. It was one of the worst trades of the last 10 years. Period.

Pesce for Nylander (signed) is very fair. In fact, Carolina may need to add. The add dependent on how good the contract is he signed for.

 

[bluedevil58]

And you can't cite that as a reference when discussing trades. It was one of the worst trades of the last 10 years. Period.

Pesce for Nylander (signed) is very fair. In fact, Carolina may need to add. The add dependent on how good the contract is he signed for.

No they wouldn't. D men command a higher return than scoring wingers.

 

[firstemperor]

Hall for Larsson is lambasted on HF because Larsson stagnated as a #2/3 while Hall's (healthy) talent was realized.

I don't think it is so clear that Pesce would certainly stagnate at what he currently is and that Nylander certainly has more upside. I'd say it is closer to 50/50. Pesce could develop into the stud top-pairing D while Nylander could fail to transition to Center and stagnate as a 60 point skill winger. All that is for certain is the contract risk will be much higher with Nylander ($?? million per year) than Pesce ($4 million a year x 6 years).

Not exactly. Hall had an excellent 13-14 year, he would have legitimately got some Hart talk if Edmonton made the playoffs that year. It was an outright, terrible trade and many on here, including me, were saying as such on the day of.

I'd also disagree about the 50/50 upside argument. Pesce is closer to an established defensive, complimentary top-pairing D yes. But not sure if he'll ever have that puck-moving, creativity to be a legit one (I weigh PMD heavily).

With Nylander, I think it's more about opportunity at this point. Acknowledge that it will be a point of contention here either way though.

No they wouldn't. D men command a higher return than scoring wingers.

True, but that generality is disingenuous to Nylander, who can and has played C. And who's productivity will be improved by better opportunity/usage.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Well if we didn't have Matthews anymore.....

When I quoted you, you were threatening retaliatory offer sheets on a failed nylander bid, not a successful matthews bid.

 

[drewjenks]

When I quoted you, you were threatening retaliatory offer sheets on a failed nylander bid, not a successful matthews bid.

KK fair enough.

But we'd probably have to trade big Willeh if we matched your offer out of spite.

 

[NotOpie]

Nope, he's a 2 or 3 d-man, like Larsson is when he's playing at his best.

First of all that was a "tongue in cheek" comment. But I've made my feelings about Pesce's value known. So if you're making a Nylander/Pesce comparison to Hall/Larsson, Pesce's value is the higher value, in my opinion.

Take Pastrnak or Ehlers or Point from the 2014 Draft class and the notion that Nylander improves upon his two initial 60 point seasons to 80 points in his next two seasons is hardly an exaggerated expectation.

Gonna be tough getting that 80 points from his couch in Sweden.

 

[BAM]

Hall for Larsson is lambasted on HF because Larsson stagnated as a #2/3 while Hall's (healthy) talent was realized.

I don't think it is so clear that Pesce would certainly stagnate at what he currently is and that Nylander certainly has more upside. I'd say it is closer to 50/50. Pesce could develop into the stud top-pairing D while Nylander could fail to transition to Center and stagnate as a 60 point skill winger. All that is for certain is the contract risk will be much higher with Nylander ($?? million per year) than Pesce ($4 million a year x 6 years).

If Pesce stagnates what is he? a good 2/3? Nylander started his career with back to back 60 point seasons. He too like Matthews suffered from being on a lacklustre pp unit last year. Nylander's numbers compare pretty favourably to some great forwards in the league. He's already a first liner. I think they have equal value. Leafs take risk in Nylander potentially turning into a ppg talent and transitioning back to center full time.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

We have needed a top 4 defender for 2 years now. We make these ridiculous fantasy trade proposals ad nauseaum, yet none have happened. Is there something to be learned here possibly ..... maybe .......?

 

[BAM]

First of all that was a "tongue in cheek" comment. But I've made my feelings about Pesce's value known. So if you're making a Nylander/Pesce comparison to Hall/Larsson, Pesce's value is the higher value, in my opinion.



Gonna be tough getting that 80 points from his couch in Sweden.

Nylander if signed to a contract between 6-6.6 will have more value than Pesce. It's only when his deal is in the 7+ range where the disparity in contracts really show themselves. Leafs will have no problem signing Nylander for the former, that is great value for a player that could realistically be ppg as soon as this year, especially with how Matthews looks too.

If Nylander prices himself out of Toronto he will be dealt. Otherwise, he'll be signed and any issues regarding the d can be fixed (short-term) at the cost of draft picks/prospects. Gives more time for Liljegren and Sandin to be ready for next season.

 

[ITM]

First of all that was a "tongue in cheek" comment. But I've made my feelings about Pesce's value known. So if you're making a Nylander/Pesce comparison to Hall/Larsson, Pesce's value is the higher value, in my opinion.

Of the four pieces in your example, Pesce is the lowest in terms of value. Hall, Nylander, Larsson, Pesce is the correct order. Whether it's points scored, playoffs experience and performance, draft position, etc, etc, Brett Pesce ranking higher than fourth is a demonstration of pure bias.

Adam Larsson was the best Chiarelli could do at the time for Edmonton in his assessment of need. Larsson, under any consideration, wasn't and was never going to be the appropriate opposite to Taylor Hall. And at the time, time wasn't needed in order to prove that a profound disparity in value was being exchanged.

The Hall-Larsson deal is a cautionary tale that many of us are reminded of as other Leafs fans plot out possible exit strategies from William Nylander. These scenarios share the same rush to judgement that Chiarelli concluded and I don't think time would be required to determine the eventual winner of the deal any more than Shero thought he was gambling by acquiring Taylor Hall.

Nathan MacKinnon took four seasons to establish himself for the potential Colorado used a first overall pick to select him. William Nylander's first two seasons are better than Nathan MacKinnon's first two seasons. Is it unreasonable to project a twenty point increase over the next two to three seasons for William Nylander? There are numerous examples that see a 15-20 point increase as a reasonable expectation in the near future.

Gonna be tough getting that 80 points from his couch in Sweden.

Mhm...But then again you straight-faced claimed that Pesce's value is the higher value. Let's chalk that opinion up with the one that occasions the player's absence as something germane to the conversation.

There's no imminent need to move Nylander let alone Nylander for Brett Pesce or any other potentially wonderful right-handed defenceman that hasn't proven his potential, "but will, very, very soon, in our opinion, trust us".

 

[KILLger]

Pesce proved his worth the last two years.

He was also very good in his rookie season.

He's the kind of defensemen that is effective at annihilating plays by the opponent. The kind you don't find many of in TO.

 

[ookhaab]

Pesce is closer to an established defensive, complimentary top-pairing D yes. But not sure if he'll ever have that puck-moving, creativity to be a legit one (I weigh PMD heavily).

Pesce is actually really good at transition (PMD) too.