Value of: Brett Pesce

[drewjenks]

Carolina would need to add to the deal, if Carolina was willing to deal him. Exactly what the add would be, is somewhat debatable. Above Gauthier, below Bean.... though I'm sure with a few tweaks, a deal could be done, if both sides were looking to make one.

I like Nylander for Pesce because of the cap-swing (the add should just be more cap space). The Canes also have virtually zero chance of reaching the cap-ceiling next year.

So this deal makes sense in theory:

TO CAROLINA:

1. Nylander (assume $6,600,000 x 6 years)
2. Nielsen (I'd offer a better prospect if necessary)
3. Timashov (I'd offer a better prospect if necessary)
4. 2019 4th (STL via Soshnikov)

TO TORONTO:

1. Pesce ($2,000,000 retained - His cap hit would = $2,025,000 x 5 years)
2. Marleau Buyout Facilitation (as per below)

• Marleau is traded to Carolina next summer.
• Carolina immediately buys Marleau out.
• The Leafs immediately re-sign Marleau.
• Marleau never actually leaves Toronto.
• Cost to Carolina = $3,800,000 real dollars & $6,250,000 cap-space (for 1-year only).
• If Toronto signs Marleau for the league minimum he will still make $300,000 extra.

OUTCOME:

• Carolina will still be $5-10 million under the cap in 2019-20 (after re-signings).
  
• After 2019-20, Carolina will only be left with Pesce's $2,000,000 retained.
• The Leafs would have about $10,000,000 more cap space in 2019-20.
• The only change to Toronto's roster would be Nylander for Pesce.
• This would provide enough cap space for the Leafs to pursue 1 or 2 UFA's like:
• FWD: Artemi Panarin, Mark Stone, Jakob Silfverberg, etc.
• DEF: Tyler Myers, Anton Stralman, Jan Rutta, etc.

And potentially end up with roster that looks like:

Panarin - Matthews - Kappy (23 million)
Hyman - Tavares - Marner (21 million)
Marleau - Kadri - Johnson (7.0 million)
Leivo - Lindholm - Brown (4.0 million)
Grundy - Gauthier - Engvall (1.0 million)
---------
Rielly - Pesce (7.0 million)
Dermott - Stralman (4.0 million)
Borgman - Zaitsev (5.5 million)
Rosen - Liljegren (1.5 million)
----------
Anderson (5.0 million)
Sparks (1.0 million)

TOTAL (23 PLAYERS) = $80,000,000
​

 

[Tit]

I like Nylander for Pesce because of the cap-swing (the add should just be more cap space). The Canes also have virtually zero chance of reaching the cap-ceiling next year.

So this deal makes sense in theory:

TO CAROLINA:

1. Nylander (assume $6,600,000 x 6 years)
2. Nielsen (I'd offer a better prospect if necessary)
3. Timashov (I'd offer a better prospect if necessary)
4. 2019 4th (STL via Soshnikov)

TO TORONTO:

1. Pesce ($2,000,000 retained - His cap hit would = $2,025,000 x 5 years)
2. Marleau Buyout (as per below)

• Marleau is traded to Carolina next summer.
• Carolina immediately buys Marleau out.
• The Leafs immediately re-sign Marleau.
• Marleau never actually leaves Toronto.
• Cost to Carolina = $3,800,000 real dollars & $6,250,000 cap-space (for 1-year only).
• If Toronto signs Marleau for the league minimum he will still make $300,000 extra.

OUTCOME:

• Carolina will still be $5-10 million under the cap in 2019-20 (after re-signings).
  
• After 2019-20, Carolina will only be left with Pesce's $2,000,000 retained.
• The Leafs will have have roughly $10,000,000 more cap space in 2019-20.
• The only change to Toronto's roster would be Nylander for Pesce.
• This would provide enough cap space for the Leafs to pursue 1 or 2 UFA's like:
• FWD: Artemi Panarin, Mark Stone, Jakob Silfverberg, etc.
• DEF: Tyler Myers, Anton Stralman, Jan Rutta, etc.

And potentially end up with roster that looks like:

Panarin - Matthews - Kapanen
Hyman - Tavares - Marner
Marleau - Kadri - Johnson
Leivo - Lindholm - Brown
(Grundy - Gauthier - Engvall)
---------
Rielly - Pesce
Dermott - Stralman
Borgman - Zaitsev
Rosen - Ozhiganov
(Sandin - Liljegren)
​

Lol what did I just read?

1. leafs are not getting panarin.
2. Can you even do that with Marleau? And why would Carolina even agree to it if it was contractually possible?

 

[Mikeaveli]

I like Nylander for Pesce because of the cap-swing (the add should just be more cap space). The Canes also have virtually zero chance of reaching the cap-ceiling next year.

So this deal makes sense in theory:

TO CAROLINA:

1. Nylander (assume $6,600,000 x 6 years)
2. Nielsen (I'd offer a better prospect if necessary)
3. Timashov (I'd offer a better prospect if necessary)
4. 2019 4th (STL via Soshnikov)

TO TORONTO:

1. Pesce ($2,000,000 retained - His cap hit would = $2,025,000 x 5 years)
2. Marleau Buyout Facilitation (as per below)

• Marleau is traded to Carolina next summer.
• Carolina immediately buys Marleau out.
• The Leafs immediately re-sign Marleau.
• Marleau never actually leaves Toronto.
• Cost to Carolina = $3,800,000 real dollars & $6,250,000 cap-space (for 1-year only).
• If Toronto signs Marleau for the league minimum he will still make $300,000 extra.

OUTCOME:

• Carolina will still be $5-10 million under the cap in 2019-20 (after re-signings).
  
• After 2019-20, Carolina will only be left with Pesce's $2,000,000 retained.
• The Leafs would have about $10,000,000 more cap space in 2019-20.
• The only change to Toronto's roster would be Nylander for Pesce.
• This would provide enough cap space for the Leafs to pursue 1 or 2 UFA's like:
• FWD: Artemi Panarin, Mark Stone, Jakob Silfverberg, etc.
• DEF: Tyler Myers, Anton Stralman, Jan Rutta, etc.

And potentially end up with roster that looks like:

Panarin - Matthews - Kapanen
Hyman - Tavares - Marner
Marleau - Kadri - Johnson
Leivo - Lindholm - Brown
(Grundy - Gauthier - Engvall)
---------
Rielly - Pesce
Dermott - Stralman
Borgman - Zaitsev
Rosen - Ozhiganov
(Sandin - Liljegren)
​

This is realistic lol

 

[Danny1237]

Just to play devils advocate:

Sure, they rather trade Faulk but Faulk isn't getting an asset remotely close to the caliber of Nylander, with the immense upside to boot.

Also their D depth is now:

Slavin-Hamilton
CDH-Faulk
Fleury-Pesce

Bean

CDH can play the right side. Faulk is not a terrible fit next to a more defensively competent CDH and is the the stronger PMD between the two. It also plays into a more interesting dynamic between the pairings, as they have a interesting disposition of primary PMD alternating between the left/right side- whereas other teams like the Leafs are a lot more predictable and easier to game-plan against (our primary PMD in years past has been via the left side, although that's arguably changing a bit this year).

Now consider their C depth:

Aho-Staal-Necas..........two of which are in a similar situation as Willy. Though I'd venture to say Willy is more of a natural C than anyone besides Staal and it gives them another forward, with proven NHL productivity to shore up the middle of the ice for years to come. Staal can then move to becoming (though he already is) a primary matchup center.....allowing two of the other C-driven lines to feast on other team's lesser lines.

It absolutely makes sense for Carolina. They would have their center-ice position (and D depth is obviously already set). That's a dangerous team with the primary positions all shored up.

Now here's where I may agitate Cane fans- I wouldn't trade Willy for Pesce straight up without at minimum, a significant add- i.e a 1st. Give Willy the center of the ice, more minutes and more importantly, PP time and he's easily a 70 point guy, IMO.

I agree with the logic, but that last statement is one of the reasons this trade doesn't happen until someone decides to get desperate or put someone on the block. When you are in the position that you don't feel like you "need" to make a trade, you want to win the deal. Since neither side is looking to move their guy, then neither side is loving the idea of making a trade. If that is the case, then Toronto is likely wanting more than Pesce because they feel like Nylanders upside warrants more value. Carolina likely isnt' willing to part with a first of the additional value necessary, and we are back to where we started.

Now, if for some reason, Carolina just targets Nylander, and decide they really really want him, then maybe they get desperate and add to the deal to get it done. My position is, that Toronto can't just decide they want a good D for Nylander, because if you put him on the block, and restrict the return that much, you almost always lose that trade. Being patient and waiting for someone else to feel like they might lose out, is really the best way to manage the asset. Either take your time and get him on a deal you like, or take your time and wait until someone bids a package you like. Either way, the team is winning right now and the Leafs can wait to figure it out.

 

[drewjenks]

Lol what did I just read?

1. leafs are not getting panarin.
2. Can you even do that with Marleau? And why would Carolina even agree to it if it was contractually possible?

1. Not unless we get cap-space from this trade (I paid Panarin 9.5 mil in the example).
2. Yes WSH did it with Orpik this summer (COL bought him out & he stayed in WSH).
3. CAR might agree because the players in the trade are massively in their favour.

The trade is literally:

Brett Pesce for Nylander + Prospect + Prospect + 4th Round Pick

So to make it more fair....Carolina takes on:

1. Marleau's Buyout Penalty = $6,250,000 x 1 year (they won't need the cap-space).
2. Pesce's Retained Salary = $2,000,000 x 5 years (the only long-term sacrifice).

-------

Does the value seem that far off?
CAR can still re-sign their full roster next year with millions to spare (then Marleau's off).

 

[drewjenks]

This is realistic lol

Because it involves thought it's not realistic?

The only question is: If Dubas presented it to Carolina...would they accept?

At minimum they'd be interested.

 

[KILLger]

Value is awful.

You should add "lame" to prospect on a team that had a plethora of prospects at each position.

It makes absolutely zero sense whatsoever for Carolina but gives room to Toronto to sign a good player.

With Carolina's start to the season, I'd think that they hang onto their roster players until a goalie is made available.

 

[LakeLivin]

Lol what did I just read?

1. leafs are not getting panarin.
2. Can you even do that with Marleau? And why would Carolina even agree to it if it was contractually possible?

1. Not unless we get cap-space from this trade (I paid Panarin 9.5 mil in the example).
2. Yes WSH did it with Orpik this summer (COL bought him out & he stayed in WSH).
. . .

Didn't the league investigate that and only ok it because they determine that it wasn't a "pre-planned" ploy to skirt the cap? I'm guessing that's the type of thing the first team to use it might get away with it, but perhaps not subsequent teams.

 

[drewjenks]

Didn't the league investigate that and only ok it because they determine that it wasn't a "pre-planned" ploy to skirt the cap? I'm guessing that's the type of thing the first team to use it might get away with it, but perhaps not subsequent teams.

Well if the NHL tries to reject it after it makes Marleau more money overall....

We'll have to NHLPA backing us up with sanctions brah.

It'll be the Sikovia Accords all over again & we'll have Iron Man (Marleau) on our side.

 

[ookhaab]

Makes no sense to retain 2m for f***ing 5 years??? Not atleast for very mediocre prospects and picks.

The most unrealistic part of that trade would probably be Nylander signing at 6,6m, if he was willing to take that he would already be signed.

 

[Unsustainable]

Makes no sense to retain 2m for ****ing 5 years??? Not atleast for very mediocre prospects and picks.

The most unrealistic part of that trade would probably be Nylander signing at 6,6m, if he was willing to take that he would already be signed.

If we are retaining on Pesce, Nylander + Kap better be coming back.

 

[bluedevil58]

Because it involves thought it's not realistic?

The only question is: If Dubas presented it to Carolina...would they accept?

At minimum they'd be interested.

No. Toronto needs Pesce way more than Carolina needs Nylander. Unless the offense falls.off for Carolina then the deal is unlikely.

 

[drewjenks]

No. Toronto needs Pesce way more than Carolina needs Nylander. Unless the offense falls.off for Carolina then the deal is unlikely.

Toronto doesn't need Pesce lol

 

[bluedevil58]

Toronto doesn't need Pesce lol

Oh ok no need for an RHD like I have seen in almost every thread. Got it.

 

[drewjenks]

Oh ok no need for an RHD like I have seen in almost every thread. Got it.

Sure we want a RD.

No one's desperate for PESCE though.

He's a 3rd pair RD at the moment.

Remember that.

 

[spockBokk]

Sure we want a RD.

No one's desperate for PESCE though.

He's a 3rd pair RD at the moment.

Remember that.

He’s playing on the 3rd pair because of the insane depth CAR has in NHL RD at the moment. He’s clearly a 20min a night guy on CAR and any other team in the league. He’s also on an absolute steal of a deal for the next 6 seasons.

Nylander is sitting at home twiddling his thumbs while asking for $8M a year....you might need to remember that.

Is Kadri strictly a 3rd C line now that he plays behind Matthews and Tavares? Nice to have C depth huh? Guess what, CAR’s depth is on D...you might need to again remember that.

 

[powerstuck]

Well if the NHL tries to reject it after it makes Marleau more money overall....

We'll have to NHLPA backing us up with sanctions brah.

It'll be the Sikovia Accords all over again & we'll have Iron Man (Marleau) on our side.

It would be considered cap circumvention and NHLPA couldn't do anything about it...not even complain.

You use Orpik as an example, sure but that didn't involve a ''previous'' trade between the two same teams.

 

[GoldiFox]

Sure we want a RD.

No one's desperate for PESCE though.

He's a 3rd pair RD at the moment.

Remember that.

Pesce is a 3rd pairing D at the moment like Nylander is an unsigned forward at the moment. Technically true is cute, but not representative.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

TO CAROLINA:

1. Nylander (assume $6,600,000 x 6 years)

Pesce ($2,000,000 retained - His cap hit would = $2,025,000 x 5 years)

If Carolina is willing to retain 2 mil aav on Pesce's contract for 5 years at 10 mil total plus 4 mil on a Marleau buyout, why not take that 14 mil, add it to Nylanders contract, then offer sheet him at 8.2 mil aav? That way they keep Pesce while adding Nylander. I think Carolina would risk the draft picks if they could keep Pesce on his great deal.

 

[Unsustainable]

Sure we want a RD.

No one's desperate for PESCE though.

He's a 3rd pair RD at the moment.

Remember that.

He’s only on the “3rd pair” because they are putting Faulk out there like they are trying to showcase him for a trade.

 

[Rhinorage]

If Carolina is willing to retain 2 mil aav on Pesce's contract for 5 years at 10 mil total plus 4 mil on a Marleau buyout, why not take that 14 mil, add it to Nylanders contract, then offer sheet him at 8.2 mil aav? That way they keep Pesce while adding Nylander. I think Carolina would risk the draft picks if they could keep Pesce on his great deal.

If you are willing to give up four 1st round picks by doing this sure go for it.

8.2 mil x 7 years = 57.4 mil total

57.4 mil / 5 = 11.48 aav for the first 5 years of the contract. This is how offer sheet compensation is calculated. Anything over 10 mil = 4 first round draft picks.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

If you are willing to give up four 1st round picks by doing this sure go for it.

Knock off two years.

5 years, 8.2 aav

 

[Rhinorage]

Knock off two years.

5 years, 8.2 aav

The ask is a long term contract from Nylander's camp so far he has been reluctant to sign a bridge deal because it is a low offer from the Leafs camp. But with that said and the longer this drags on Nylander might be willing to sign for 8.2 at 5 years offer sheet but the problem is Leafs will match that because they will not get four firsts as compensation.

Leafs will trade him at that point and have more control of who they get in a package for Nylander as he will now be signed and teams will be able to work around his cap hit and get a better handle of what his trade value is while he plays for the Leafs this year. Either way the Leafs will have a good player for one year and they could decide to trade him over the summer for a really good haul.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

but the problem is Leafs will match

Okay.

Leafs will trade him

This is why he isn't signing. He knows he doesn't have a long term future in Toronto unless he takes a massive paycut, or he gets overpaid and not worth a trade. Hence why neither side is budging.

If it really gets to the point of Nylander signing an offer sheet, the Leafs will trade him before that happens to ensure he can get a deal more amenable to the cap. Nylander @ 6.5 for 7 is worth more than Nylander @ 8.2 for 5.

Pesce @ 50% retained + a Marleau buyout is a no go. Brett Pesce alone has more value to the 'Canes than an excellent RW holding out.

I'd offer Car 2019 1st, Car 2020 1st, Buff 2019 2nd and your choice of Jake Bean or Julien Gauthier for Nylander, if he were willing to sign 6.5 @ 6 or 7 years. If the offer were Pesce for Nylander straight up, last chance, if you say no Nylander goes to New York, but he's ready, pen aloft, to sign with Carolina right here, right now.....maybe I'd blink.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Sure we want a RD.

No one's desperate for PESCE though.

He's a 3rd pair RD at the moment.

Remember that.

Brett Pesce is 3rd among Canes defensemen in toi/gp.

Your proposal was bad, just move on and don’t make yourself look worse, unless that’s what you want.