Bratt & J. Hughes or B.Tkachuk & Stutzle?

[dgibb10]

Right... It was 7 years ago. STL was physical as f***. Tampa got bounced the year they were a favorite and had to add grit before they could come back and go back to back. Vegas wasn't the most physical team and certainly wasn't more physical than Florida, but feasted due to Florida being beaten down by their own physicality. And then... Well, there was Florida.

Colorado the only one of the last 6 Cup winners that really just dominated because they were more skilled than any other team. You could argue Tampa, but Tampa, once again, failed until they added some physicality.

The general trend has been that the more physical teams do well.

Tampa got bounced.

Then they shipped OUT physicality in Erne, Miller, Girardi, and Joseph (4 of their top 6 players in hits leaders).

Their hits per game dropped from 25.5 in the year they got bounced by CBJ to 23.71 when they won the cup.

This is the problem with the #HITZ community.

They take anecdotal evidence, claim this physicality was the reason for success, and then use it to further push narratives, even when the opposite is true.

Tampa started hitting LESS, not more, in order to win the cup.

They significantly outhit CBJ in the series they got swept in.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Jack makes this one simply not close.

Replace him with nico for a better debate

I 100% agree, teams that dominate possession take less hits. Which is why teams that dominate possession often do not need to be physically punishing to win

All else equal, teams that dominate possession tend to take more hits, not less. Hard to throw hits when you have the puck all the time.

If your team has the puck 60% of the game vs 40% for the opponent, but the hits are 50/50, it would suggest that your team is actually the more physical team, as you've hit the team just as much as they've hit you, despite them having 50% more time to hit you.

So teams with less hits still may be the more physical team if they have significantly more possession.

 

[Machinehead]

Tampa got bounced.

Then they shipped OUT physicality in Erne, Miller, Girardi, and Joseph (4 of their top 6 players in hits leaders).

Their hits per game dropped from 25.5 in the year they got bounced by CBJ to 23.71 when they won the cup.
View attachment 900558
This is the problem with the #HITZ community.

They take anecdotal evidence, claim this physicality was the reason for success, and then use it to further push narratives, even when the opposite is true.

Tampa started hitting LESS, not more, in order to win the cup.

They significantly outhit CBJ in the series they got swept in.

That St. Louis team that was mentioned, I think, was 23rd in the league in hits.

 

[dgibb10]

All else equal, teams that dominate possession tend to take more hits, not less. Hard to throw hits when you have the puck all the time.

If your team has the puck 60% of the game vs 40% for the opponent, but the hits are 50/50, it would suggest that your team is actually the more physical team, as you've hit the team just as much as they've hit you, despite them having 50% more time to hit you.

So teams with less hits still may be the more physical team if they have significantly more possession.

And therein lies the big problem with chasing hits and physicality.

You can only use those attributes when the other team has the puck. And you want to have the puck to actually win.

It's also pretty simple to go and grab that complimentary physicality. See what NJD has been able to do with Cotter, Dillon, Meier. That's 600 hits a season brought in

 

[dgibb10]

That St. Louis team that was mentioned, I think, was 23rd in the league in hits.

Every team in the NHL will have some physicality that you can point too. It's just blatant cherry picking to push a narrative

If NJD goes out and wins the cup this year I'm sure the #HITZ community will go out and give credit to Paul Cotter, Brendon Dillon, and Timo Meier, while ignoring the fact that the main core that will carry them there being Bratt, Hughes, Hischier, Hamilton, Hughes, Pesce, and Nemec (Meier is also included here), while they will almost certainly do it via dominating the possession game.

You could pick any team in the NHL going into the season, and the #HITZ community could find a way to explain why their physicality was the reason they won.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

And therein lies the big problem with chasing hits and physicality.

You can only use those attributes when the other team has the puck. And you want to have the puck to actually win.

You have to prioritize possession, but adding physicality in addition to that is probably helpful. I would imagine teams that out-possess and out-hit their opponents do pretty well.

Regardless, my point was that using raw hit differentials isn't really a great indicator of which teams are more physical.

It's also pretty simple to go and grab that complimentary physicality. See what NJD has been able to do with Cotter, Dillon, Meier. That's 600 hits a season brought in

I don't like adding physicality if it's at the cost of possession and speed. And to that end, I think it actually is pretty hard to add physicality without sacrificing those.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Every team in the NHL will have some physicality that you can point too. It's just blatant cherry picking to push a narrative

If NJD goes out and wins the cup this year I'm sure the #HITZ community will go out and give credit to Paul Cotter, Brendon Dillon, and Timo Meier, while ignoring the fact that the main core that will carry them there being Bratt, Hughes, Hischier, Hamilton, Hughes, Pesce, and Nemec (Meier is also included here), while they will almost certainly do it via dominating the possession game.

You could pick any team in the NHL going into the season, and the #HITZ community could find a way to explain why their physicality was the reason they won.

Yea, but how do teams get possession and keep it? Those teams are not scared of contact and don’t give up the puck at the slightest hint of contact. Soft dipsy doodling teams don’t win shit. It’s not about “HITZ”. Physical, gritty teams win the cup. The sheer number of hits a team has doesn’t tell the whole story.

 

[dgibb10]

Yea, but how do teams get possession and keep it? Those teams are not scared of contact and don’t give up the puck at the slightest hint of contact. Soft dipsy doodling teams don’t win shit. It’s not about “HITZ”. Physical, gritty teams win the cup. The sheer number of hits a team has doesn’t tell the whole story.

Hits are 1 way of getting/keeping possession.

The problem is you are then DOUBLE counting the value of hits.

NJD is an excellent team at getting and keeping possession. Hughes and Bratt are excellent at getting and keeping possession.

So if all this physicality is helping Tkachuk and Stutzle get/keep possession so much, they must be SIGNIFICANTLY worse in the other areas of the game, since the end result is that they have WORSE possession metrics.

Teams win by getting and keeping possession yes.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Yea, but how do teams get possession and keep it? Those teams are not scared of contact and don’t give up the puck at the slightest hint of contact. Soft dipsy doodling teams don’t win shit. It’s not about “HITZ”. Physical, gritty teams win the cup. The sheer number of hits a team has doesn’t tell the whole story.

You can't explain this to people who watch stats instead of hockey lol.

 

[dgibb10]

Yea, but how do teams get possession and keep it? Those teams are not scared of contact and don’t give up the puck at the slightest hint of contact. Soft dipsy doodling teams don’t win shit. It’s not about “HITZ”. Physical, gritty teams win the cup. The sheer number of hits a team has doesn’t tell the whole story.

Except all the times that teams that aren't physical or gritty win the cup.

Of course, then the #HITZ community will retroactively claim these players have grit and credit it as the reason they won.

Good teams win the cup. Sometimes they're physical, sometimes they're not. There is nothing to suggest teams that win the cup are any more gritty or physical than the teams that don't.

none of Tampa, Vegas, or Colorado were particularly gritty.

 

[dgibb10]

You have to prioritize possession, but adding physicality in addition to that is probably helpful. I would imagine teams that out-possess and out-hit their opponents do pretty well.

Regardless, my point was that using raw hit differentials isn't really a great indicator of which teams are more physical.

I don't like adding physicality if it's at the cost of possession and speed. And to that end, I think it actually is pretty hard to add physicality without sacrificing those.

100% agree about raw differentials, but hard to access/find numbers that can accurately value possession.

teams that outpossess and outshoot their opponents consistently win, whether they hit or not.

I view physicality as a piece that contributes to the final puzzle of end results.

Others view end results, and then ADD value for physicality on top of that, which makes no sense to me.

If Brady Tkachuk's physicality is preventing opponents from doing things on the ice that they otherwise would, that is ALREADY reflected in his end results for possession/chance generation.

In other words, just how much worse is Brady Tkachuk than Jesper Bratt at the other aspects of hockey if, despite the massive physicality difference, they still end up with nearly identical results

 

[Sting]

I think it'll be interesting to see Stu this year without playing through an injury for what was apparently the entire year. People are very low on him after last season while ignoring that little tidbit.

I think it's pretty close tbh. Gotta go with Hughes/Bratt for now but that could change this upcoming year.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

100% agree about raw differentials, but hard to access/find numbers that can accurately value possession.

teams that outpossess and outshoot their opponents consistently win, whether they hit or not.

I view physicality as a piece that contributes to the final puzzle of end results.

Others view end results, and then ADD value for physicality on top of that, which makes no sense to me.

If Brady Tkachuk's physicality is preventing opponents from doing things on the ice that they otherwise would, that is ALREADY reflected in his end results for possession/chance generation.

In other words, just how much worse is Brady Tkachuk than Jesper Bratt at the other aspects of hockey if, despite the massive physicality difference, they still end up with nearly identical results

Yeah, physicality can be viewed as a means to an end - some players use their physicality well and it results in better possession for their team.

I think what it comes down to is answering the question "which method of gaining & keeping possession is the least dependent on a hypothetical playoff opponent's play style?"

You can lump most positive possession forwards into one of the following groups in terms of their primary method of influencing possession:

(1) speed and skill (speedy forecheck + skilled possession with the puck)
(2) speed/size and physicality (heavy forecheck + cycle/crash the net)
(3) positional/defensive play (shut down players + opportunistic offensively)

I suspect most people feel that (2) and (3) are more independent of the opponent, as they are typically more helpful with gaining possession, where as (1) is more effective at maintaining possession, and creating high quality chances with said possession. Players who rely more on (1) may be less effective vs elite opponents who are great at keeping possession themselves. Obviously, players are typically a mix of these, e.g. Hischier is probably a mix of (3) and (1), whereas Tkachuk is mostly (2) and Bratt is more (1).

Ultimately, you want a balance of both, which is why I argued that Bratt vs Tkachuk is pretty much a wash.

 

[dgibb10]

Yeah, physicality can be viewed as a means to an end - some players use their physicality well and it results in better possession for their team.

I think what it comes down to is answering the question "which method of gaining & keeping possession is the least dependent on a hypothetical playoff opponent's play style?"

You can lump most positive possession forwards into one of the following groups in terms of their primary method of influencing possession:

(1) speed and skill (speedy forecheck + skilled possession with the puck)
(2) speed/size and physicality (heavy forecheck + cycle/crash the net)
(3) positional/defensive play (shut down players + opportunistic offensively)

I suspect most people feel that (2) and (3) are more independent of the opponent, as they are typically more helpful with gaining possession, where as (1) is more effective at maintaining possession, and creating high quality chances with said possession. Players who rely more on (1) may be less effective vs elite opponents who are great at keeping possession themselves. Obviously, players are typically a mix of these, e.g. Hischier is probably a mix of (3) and (1), whereas Tkachuk is mostly (2) and Bratt is more (1).

Ultimately, you want a balance of both, which is why I argued that Bratt vs Tkachuk is pretty much a wash.

Yup.

Bratt's possession game translated pretty well to the playoffs tho.

An absolute Shesterkin masterclass against him kept the raw totals down, but Bratt 5v5 was:
(all per 60)
3.81 xgoals for vs 2.19 against
31.91 shots for vs 22.85 shots against

With shot attempts (fenwick and corsi) also being absolutely fantastic.

With Bratt on the ice against top quality comp of the playoffs, the devils utterly dominated the possession game.

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

I think it'll be interesting to see Stu this year without playing through an injury for what was apparently the entire year. People are very low on him after last season while ignoring that little tidbit.

I think it's pretty close tbh. Gotta go with Hughes/Bratt for now but that could change this upcoming year.

i dont think its unrealistic to say the Devils duo likely is the better duo now and going forward; for however much Stuetzle increases, Jack will as well

And Bratt offensively is a bit better than Brady - and its not like his intangibles will get better, he already is a hits leader and a team captain

Odds are good Jack remains the best out of the group while Bratt Stuetzle and Tkachuk are around each other in terms of output

 

[NJ DevLolz]

I'm not sure the Devils don't have the two best players here. Bratt is stupid good. Being a late-round pick and not a very physical player will hurt him when compared to high picks.

 

[PenguinSuitedUp]

Right... It was 7 years ago. STL was physical as f***. Tampa got bounced the year they were a favorite and had to add grit before they could come back and go back to back. Vegas wasn't the most physical team and certainly wasn't more physical than Florida, but feasted due to Florida being beaten down by their own physicality. And then... Well, there was Florida.

Colorado the only one of the last 6 Cup winners that really just dominated because they were more skilled than any other team. You could argue Tampa, but Tampa, once again, failed until they added some physicality.

The general trend has been that the more physical teams do well.

I said it is cyclical. Cycles can take more than half a decade to transpire.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Yup.

Bratt's possession game translated pretty well to the playoffs tho.

An absolute Shesterkin masterclass against him kept the raw totals down, but Bratt 5v5 was:
(all per 60)
3.81 xgoals for vs 2.19 against
31.91 shots for vs 22.85 shots against

With shot attempts (fenwick and corsi) also being absolutely fantastic.

With Bratt on the ice against top quality comp of the playoffs, the devils utterly dominated the possession game.

Yeah the Rangers were a great matchup that year for guys like Bratt and Hughes. They just skated the lead footed Rangers into the ice.

I think a more mobile 2 way defensive group would actually be a worse matchup for a guy like Bratt, but he's just so good he's gonna have a good time regardless.

 

[Akrapovince]

I'm not sure the Devils don't have the two best players here. Bratt is stupid good. Being a late-round pick and not a very physical player will hurt him when compared to high picks.

I don’t mind if a player is not physical in the traditional sense if they are super high octane.

It’s just as tiring and hard to break out when you have a skilled player circling your zone or a nifty player on the forecheck.

Non physical, small, east-west players I’m not a fan of.

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

I don’t mind if a player is not physical in the traditional sense if they are super high octane.

It’s just as tiring and hard to break out when you have a skilled player circling your zone or a nifty player on the forecheck.

Non physical, small, east-west players I’m not a fan of.

Bratt is North-South and Jack's compass is broken, he goes wherever the f*** he wants lol

 

[Akrapovince]

Bratt is North-South and Jack's compass is broken, he goes wherever the f*** he wants lol

Jack can go any direction he wants as long as he keeps playing the way he does.

I’ve seen him put defenders to sleep going east-west before burning them going north-south too many times.

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

Jack can go any direction he wants as long as he keeps playing the way he does.

I’ve seen him put defenders to sleep going east-west before burning them going north-south too many times.

Hes probably the most shifty skater currently - he lulls you to sleep with his stride but it has speed to burn and acceleration to beat

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Hes probably the most shifty skater currently - he lulls you to sleep with his stride but it has speed to burn and acceleration to beat

Except for maybe Bratt lol

 

[Xspyrit]

As a devils fan, I think Stutzle is getting significantly underrated because he played through injury this year.

I was going to say that, and also that some think that he doesn't play well in the first part of the season but the season he had 90 pts, he was 20 years old... so let's not forget that he is a year younger than Hughes

So many hockey fans right now think Stutzle is going to be the player we saw last season... I highly doubt it

The magical powers of a Captain in a team sport are one of the most eye-rolling tropes on HF.

It's ridiculously ridiculous, can only come from people who never really played the sport. There's 18 skaters, 1 goalie and a coaching staff. Yes best players can have a huge impact but it doesn't seem to be understood within the reality

That's why I think it's odd that we always read that Brady is a "player you win with." What does that even mean?

Who says that though? Is it Sens fans or random hockey fans? I personally never said it

Do you guys actually have a melnyk banner in the rafters?

You don't find it normal that a team has a banner for a deceased owner who owned the team for nearly 20 years?

 

[TGWL]

Tampa got bounced.

Then they shipped OUT physicality in Erne, Miller, Girardi, and Joseph (4 of their top 6 players in hits leaders).

Their hits per game dropped from 25.5 in the year they got bounced by CBJ to 23.71 when they won the cup.
View attachment 900558
This is the problem with the #HITZ community.

They take anecdotal evidence, claim this physicality was the reason for success, and then use it to further push narratives, even when the opposite is true.

Tampa started hitting LESS, not more, in order to win the cup.

They significantly outhit CBJ in the series they got swept in.

Hits are poorly tracked. It's puck separation that matters. Fans toss around the physical word because most believe every time you knock a player off the puck it means you're a physical force who throws big hits. You don't need bone crushing hits. But you do need players who will hustle, ride off players into the boards and create puck separation for your team.