Player Discussion Brandon Carlo III

[NDiesel]

My god this thread gives me a migraine

 

[Mad-Marcus]

not as bad as the pre-signing Swayman thread

 

[NDiesel]

You're certainly entitled to your opinion as am I. His biggest problem through out his career has been consistency. I like the player at his best, but he goes through personal periods of bad decisions. Not just when the D has been collectively subpar.

He's certainly worth trying to figure out how to get the best out of him. His next contract should not be even in the Lindholm level. Two different ceilings, Lindholm's is much higher. So what is he worth to keep developing. He's starting to get up there in age to expect too much more out of him.

In all honesty, I've never been a big fan of big soft positional defensemen. Teams know you can win a net front battle against him without much pushback. That the way it is with gentle giants like him.
He never has had any snarl.

The problem is he doesn't do anything flashy. It's hard to notice solid gapping or stick position or even stick checking, so when he turns it over it's the one thing that sticks out in most people's mind at the end of the game. Add on he has the worst deployment and these moments are bound to happen more often than it does to other people.

He's been dogshit this year for sure, but you aren't getting another RD for similar money to replace him and if you trade him for top 6 help you are one injury away from one of the worst bottom 4 in the league.

 

[Mad-Marcus]

The problem is he doesn't do anything flashy. It's hard to notice solid gapping or stick position or even stick checking, so when he turns it over it's the one thing that sticks out in most people's mind at the end of the game. Add on he has the worst deployment and these moments are bound to happen more often than it does to other people.

He's been dogshit this year for sure, but you aren't getting another RD for similar money to replace him and if you trade him for top 6 help you are one injury away from one of the worst bottom 4 in the league.

Not looking for flashy, but as a stay home d man he's prone to getting out of position, leaving net front presence open(which is a team issue as well, probably cause by playing zone, zone defense requires discipline and this team has less than they should at this point). He has very little intimidation factor as the other team views him. He can be physically beat in front of the net.

I'm not one of the ones calling for a trade, but I have no delusions of what he is as a player, soft.

 

[Nothingbutglass]

He's likely at peak value. He still has 2 years after this at a good number and is still a big, mobile, RHD. If he brought back some scoring, I'd think about it.

 

[BigGoalBrad]

The problem is he doesn't do anything flashy. It's hard to notice solid gapping or stick position or even stick checking, so when he turns it over it's the one thing that sticks out in most people's mind at the end of the game. Add on he has the worst deployment and these moments are bound to happen more often than it does to other people.

He's been dogshit this year for sure, but you aren't getting another RD for similar money to replace him and if you trade him for top 6 help you are one injury away from one of the worst bottom 4 in the league.

Peeke is the better player right now.

A soft guy like Carlo doesn't have to regress much from being good to awful he only does one thing positional D to begin with never hits no offense. Gloves are glued on so his teammates have to fight his battles.

He might get his act together on a different team middle of the lineup guys benefit from trades.

 

[northeastern]

Peeke is the better player right now.

A soft guy like Carlo doesn't have to regress much from being good to awful he only does one thing positional D to begin with never hits no offense. Gloves are glued on so his teammates have to fight his battles.

He might get his act together on a different team middle of the lineup guys benefit from trades.

I'll never understand why carlo is soft. He is no doubt. But why... he has the size. When he was younger I figured he was just a kid he'll learn it, but he hasn't. Someone needs to insult him on a personal level every night and see if we can find an angry Carlo somewhere.

 

[Score08]

As opposed to the non-Canadian Don Sweeney?

No to a gm of a Canadian team.

 

[Aussie Bruin]

You’re still evaluating players based on plus / minus. That stat was proven years ago to be a poor indicator of an individual’s on ice contributions.

I was going by eye test / memory from watching the games. Looked to me like he struggled last year.

If you want to base your argument on stats, Corsi is a much better statistical indicator than plus / minus and Carlo’s Corsi rating was way down last year from his career track record and continues to be near that low so far this season.

I am a big fan of the guy and am optimistic that he’ll revert to his very valuable game soon.

To get a proper perspective on a player's corsi number, you need to tie it to their zone start percentage, amongst other things. Monty likes to use certain players more heavily in offensive or defensive situations than Cassidy did. Carlo gets a ton of defensive draws and assignments under Monty, so does Coyle. You can see this in the 5v5 stats below. When Monty comes along Carlo's O zone start percentage drops from what had been 40s/50s to just 31% in the first season. His corsi actually held up pretty well that year, likely because the Bruins had a historic record season. But last year he was buried in the D zone even more, with just 18% of his starts in the O zone. Combine that with the team as a whole slipping a little in their results, and the 43% CF is both understandable and perfectly decent in context, especially when you add in the 59% GF on top of it. That's a very fine return based on the assignment given, IMO.

This year, slightly less buried, and actually the corsi is holding up ok. But the goals for/against is a problem, and points to the mistakes he's been making and the team's general defensive issues. Not outright horrible perhaps, but definitely work to do.

Season	GP	CF%	GF%	Off. Zone Start %	Off. Zone Faceoff %
20162017​	82​	52.15​	48.78​	42.35​	44.19​
20172018​	76​	52.04​	52.08​	51.99​	54.34​
20182019​	72​	53.01​	59.49​	53.44​	53.2​
20192020​	67​	51.09​	56.16​	57.79​	54.86​
20202021​	27​	57.26​	46.88​	48.84​	50.24​
20212022​	79​	51.66​	48.94​	45.95​	48.48​
20222023​	75​	50.4​	68.6​	31.29​	35.55​
20232024​	76​	43.12​	59.14​	17.99​	22.65​
20242025​	9​	46.46​	42.86​	18.52​	33.33​

 

[PB37]

Not true at all.

When comparing it to other members of the same team, it is very telling. NHL coaches certainly value it. Over a full season it tells you just what you want to know.

I think plus/minus has more merit over bigger sample sizes., where good/bad luck factors tend to be less impactful towards the tally. But like all stats, it only paints part of the story.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I'll never understand why carlo is soft. He is no doubt. But why... he has the size. When he was younger I figured he was just a kid he'll learn it, but he hasn't. Someone needs to insult him on a personal level every night and see if we can find an angry Carlo somewhere.

You think a player can learn how to not be soft? In the NHL?

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Peeke is the better player right now.

A soft guy like Carlo doesn't have to regress much from being good to awful he only does one thing positional D to begin with never hits no offense. Gloves are glued on so his teammates have to fight his battles.

He might get his act together on a different team middle of the lineup guys benefit from trades.

Based on what? Peeke has 13 hits to Carlo's 10. 2 points to Carlo's 3. 13 blocks to Carlo's 29. 17 giveaways to Carlo's 10. Peeke's a +1 to Carlo's -2. But Carlo plays against the better players.

When has a teammate ever had to fight Carlo's battles?

 

[NDiesel]

Based on what? Peeke has 13 hits to Carlo's 10. 2 points to Carlo's 3. 13 blocks to Carlo's 29. 17 giveaways to Carlo's 10. Peeke's a +1 to Carlo's -2. But Carlo plays against the better plays.

When has a teammate ever had to fight Carlo's battles?

Dude don't even bother, guy will trash Carlo in every thread, safe to say he's not a fan.

I like Peeke but he isn't even in the same stratosphere as Carlo, there's a reason one was almost a buyout candidate and the other has been a top 4 D his whole career.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Dude don't even bother, guy will trash Carlo in every thread, safe to say he's not a fan.

I like Peeke but he isn't even in the same stratosphere as Carlo, there's a reason one was almost a buyout candidate and the other has been a top 4 D his whole career.

The inability of some Bruins fans to be able to evaluate defensemen never ceases to amaze me

 

[hrdpuk]

Defensive zone starts when your defensive zone face offs suck has a lot to do with stats

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Article from April from the Athletic - Carlo 11th best shutdown D in the league.

Who are the NHL’s best shutdown defensemen and why are they so valuable?

There are plenty of elite shutdown defenders who never get a turn in the spotlight because of the focus on points.

www.nytimes.com

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Kesselring didn’t even PK last year. He is a bit this year but there’s nothing about him that indicates he could do well when completely buried, regardless of who his father is.

His father is a HS Hockey Coach that my nephews sons played for at Pinkerton when they won the NH Title with Zack Sanford. Coaches kids almost always think the game
well.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

His father is a HS Hockey Coach that my nephews sons played for at Pinkerton when they won the NH Title with Zack Sanford. Coaches kids almost always think the game
well.

Ok. Well in that case let’s bury the kid in the DZone and play him PK1. Makes all the sense in the world.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Ok. Well in that case let’s bury the kid in the DZone and play him PK1. Makes all the sense in the world.

Who the hell says you "bury" him. All 3RD are capable of playing PK. I gave you a plausible candidate whose early season stats are showing he is starting to see increased defensive responsibility.

Never been a Carlo sucks guy but he is a bipolar player with good shutdown skills but next to zero puck handling skill which is important in your own zone but never gets considered as part of a shutdown package but actually is.

,

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Who the hell says you "bury" him. All 3RD are capable of playing PK. I gave you a plausible candidate whose early season stats are showing he is starting to see increased defensive responsibility.

Never been a Carlo sucks guy but he is a bipolar player with good shutdown skills but next to zero puck handling skill which is important in your own zone but never gets considered as part of a shutdown package but actually is.

,

Well this whole thing started about Carlo’s deployment. Carlo gets buried more than any defenseman in the entire league. Kesselring has not shown anything close to being the kind of defenseman who can handle that level
Of deployment. Again, regardless of who his father is.

 

[northeastern]

You think a player can learn how to not be soft? In the NHL?

A rookie, yep. A vet, nope.

 

[DarrenBanks56]

peeke with about 3 more minutes of ice time tonight than carlo.

 

[Colt.45Orr]

Trade Carlo for Vatrano

 

[wintersej]

To get a proper perspective on a player's corsi number, you need to tie it to their zone start percentage, amongst other things. Monty likes to use certain players more heavily in offensive or defensive situations than Cassidy did. Carlo gets a ton of defensive draws and assignments under Monty, so does Coyle. You can see this in the 5v5 stats below. When Monty comes along Carlo's O zone start percentage drops from what had been 40s/50s to just 31% in the first season. His corsi actually held up pretty well that year, likely because the Bruins had a historic record season. But last year he was buried in the D zone even more, with just 18% of his starts in the O zone. Combine that with the team as a whole slipping a little in their results, and the 43% CF is both understandable and perfectly decent in context, especially when you add in the 59% GF on top of it. That's a very fine return based on the assignment given, IMO.

This year, slightly less buried, and actually the corsi is holding up ok. But the goals for/against is a problem, and points to the mistakes he's been making and the team's general defensive issues. Not outright horrible perhaps, but definitely work to do.

Season	GP	CF%	GF%	Off. Zone Start %	Off. Zone Faceoff %
20162017​	82​	52.15​	48.78​	42.35​	44.19​
20172018​	76​	52.04​	52.08​	51.99​	54.34​
20182019​	72​	53.01​	59.49​	53.44​	53.2​
20192020​	67​	51.09​	56.16​	57.79​	54.86​
20202021​	27​	57.26​	46.88​	48.84​	50.24​
20212022​	79​	51.66​	48.94​	45.95​	48.48​
20222023​	75​	50.4​	68.6​	31.29​	35.55​
20232024​	76​	43.12​	59.14​	17.99​	22.65​
20242025​	9​	46.46​	42.86​	18.52​	33.33​

I think you have to be careful here. Yes for the first 15-20 seconds of a shift, zone starts matter. But last year Carlo had over 1000 shifts starts on the fly and only a couple hundred in the D zone. It matters, but it’s also easy to overstate since so little of the game is played like that.

I would throw out there that Carlo doesn’t drive possession positively at all and the Corsi difference between the rest of his career and the last season + 10 games can be totally explained by Bergeron going away. Over Bergeron’s last 3 years, Carlo had a Corsi over 60% when Bergeron was out there and under 50 without Bergeron out there. And now in a Bergeron free world…here we are.

It’s also not really his job to drive Corsi or possession in general, but to be a steady Eddie.

Team has too many of those.

But the team is also painfully shallow on RD.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

I think you have to be careful here. Yes for the first 15-20 seconds of a shift, zone starts matter. But last year Carlo had over 1000 shifts starts on the fly and only a couple hundred in the D zone. It matters, but it’s also easy to overstate since so little of the game is played like that.

I would throw out there that Carlo doesn’t drive possession positively at all and the Corsi difference between the rest of his career and the last season + 10 games can be totally explained by Bergeron going away. Over Bergeron’s last 3 years, Carlo had a Corsi over 60% when Bergeron was out there and under 50 without Bergeron out there. And now in a Bergeron free world…here we are.

It’s also not really his job to drive Corsi or possession in general, but to be a steady Eddie.

Team has too many of those.

But the team is also painfully shallow on RD.

He only had 59 shifts start in the OZone all season. Corsi is not the right stat to use when evaluating either - that's just percentage of shot attempts. You had a change in philosophy from Cassidy (high shot volume strategy) to Montgomery (lower shot volume, higher quality) so you're mixing metaphors when you include that timeframe.

The whole league is shallow at RD. Bruins with their three are far from shallow (assuming a return to normal quality of play by the entire team of course).