Finally a bit of reality in this thread. The value of an asset/product is determined by supply and demand. Tkachuk would have a much higher value than his "stats" would normally command because real GMs would kill to have him. That's how value works.
Forgot to answer this. Agree with this until you say "his name shouldn't even be brought up in this thread"... I mean, if Draisaitl was to be traded, Tkachuk is exactly the type of asset coming back. Now, it doesn't mean the Oilers have any reason or need to trade Draisaitl. If they HAD TO rebuild though, then maybe it would be different. When Karlsson was traded, he was still a top D-man and look at the pieces returned, a 1st and Norris were by far the best pieces, coincidentally 2 pieces in this proposal
Are you saying Draisaitl's value now is much much higher than what Karlsson's value was?
Maybe I should have explained my math but 59 pts per 82 games was the average of Draisaitl first 3 seasons (19 to 21 y/o), exactly like Tkachuk. We know Draisaitl broke out and is now a top NHL player, that's not being argued. The argument is that 21 y/o is pretty young and what a player has done by that age doesn't entirely reveal you what he'll be able to do in the future.
I don't disagree with many of the things you said, I also said several times that the Oilers have no reason to make this trade. And while I'd usually agree with the "value of a top-10 pick", this year is another year where the top-10 is going to be madly stacked. These high end hockey players (of course, if you know what you're doing at the draft table) on their ELCs are extremely valuable. I suggest you keep track of Jake Sanderson when he arrives.
What is disingenuous is calling them like that when they clearly have space to grow (due to age, experience, team progression, QoT, etc). This trade proposal means teams would acquire these players for what they will do GOING FORWARD, not for what they have done in the past.
1) Draisaitl doesn't belong in this thread. There is no way he is traded, even if he was it'd be for a centerpiece a lot better than Brady Tkachuk. I don't know if there is a single asset in the NHL more valuable than him. Even compared to McDavid, Mackinnon, Pasta etc his production combined with that AAV/contract length is unmatched.
2) Yes Draisaitl's value is much much higher than Karlsson's when he was traded. Draisaitl is a current top 3 player signed longterm and he is currently in his prime sweeping the Hart/Lindsay/Art Ross just last year. Karlsson was already coming down from his peak (2012-16) when he was dealt, wasn't a top 3 player and most importantly- was an impending UFA, which makes a huge difference in how valuable he is.
3) Okay well that doesn't paint the best picture, Draisaitl clearly wasn't NHL ready his 1st season, he was terrible. So in that sense kudos to Brady for being NHL ready in his D+1. But the whole 59 points thing fails to mention 2014-17 that was a significantly lower scoring era than today, 77 points was 8th in the scoring race in 2017. In 2019 77 points was 32nd in the scoring race.
While yes these players are obviously young enough to continue improving, you can't say with any certainty that they're more than what they've proven. Hell even Draisaitl could hypothetically continue improving, I think he has improved every single season of his career, but he is definitely closer to a finished product than Norris/Tkachuk.
4) These are high end hockey players? 2015 is probably going to go down as the best draft of all time. In the top 15 we have Strome (a very underwhelming pick who is a 3rd liner), Hanifin (an extremely underwhelming pick since he was a surefire #1D who ended up being a #3 dman), Zacha (a 3rd liner), Meier (a 2nd line winger), Crouse (a 4th liner), Gurianov (a middle 6 winger), Zboril (a bottom pairing dman/AHL tweener), Debrusk (a middle 6 winger), and Senyshyn (a complete bust). And this draft looks a lot better than 2022 or 2023. Only 5 of the top 15- McDavid, Eichel, Marner, Werenski, and Rantanen look like stars. You're very much overrating the value of picks.
What does Jake Sanderson have to do with this? He's suppose to be the evidence of how valuable a top 10 pick is?
HFBoards TOP 50 Prospects Ranking #50 FINAL
He was ranked the 10th best prospect a month ago. Thats good but not world beating by any means.
You think the Oilers getting a Sanderson level prospect with Ottawa's 2022 first who might make the team in 2024 is desirable to them? Getting a cup with McDavid is their only goal. This move is the antithesis of how to excute that plan.
5) It is disingenuous to call them anything more than what they are. 40-50 point players with lots of room to grow? For sure, thats a very fair description. Can you value them as 60 or 70 point players because thats what you think they'll become? Absolutely not, theres no certainties like that.
