Brady Tkachuk vs Mitch Marner

[koyvoo]

Since Marner’s second season, every single player that has played with him for a significant amount of time has seen their totals spike. And then regress again when they lose him as a linemate.

He makes everyone who plays with him much better. Every. Single. Player.

Tkachuk is an excellent player as well, and might have similar influence on his teammates, perhaps in slightly different ways, but I doubt think he has the ability to turn a 40-45 goal scorer into a 60+ goal scorer, for example.

 

[NyQuil]

Marner also has 15 primary assists this season for goals scored at 5v5. So, wouldn't that mean this notion about him getting a lot of secondary assists because of the power play is overblown?

The notion that he gets a lot of secondary assists because of the powerplay is a fact because he gets a lot of secondary assists on the powerplay.

I've never stated that Marner isn't a good puck possession player or a good playmaker, I was stating that the accumulation of secondary assists on the powerplay is due to the role that he plays with the man advantage.

As a playmaker, he should have more assists than Tkachuk at EV and he does, just as Tkachuk, as a shooter, has more goals at EV than Marner does, and he also does.

I suspect that Brady will likely put up more goal totals moving forward than Marner, not necessarily only because he's a better shooter (though he may well be) but because of the role that he plays.

Tkachuk is a bit of an underrated passer and playmaker but he's not in the same stratosphere in that area as Marner, I would never argue otherwise.

The guy closest in style of play to Mitch Marner on the Senators is Tim Stutzle.

And despite the fact that Stutzle is a terrific skater, playmaker, PP QB, emerging PKer, there are still things that Brady Tkachuk does better than he does, and likely always will.

He's been positioned to QB from the point more with Rielly's injury, and we've worked a lot more off tic tac plays/rebounds than conversion off of initial shots this year. Marner's still doing all his usual stuff - drawing defenders, opening up lanes, making beautiful passes, etc. to generate these situations that result in goals.

He's basically confirming that the role that a forward plays has an impact on the type of production that they accumulate. Something that I've said from the beginning and was roundly derided for it.

In Tkachuk's case, his position on the PP is to stand in front of the net, meaning that he's less involved in puck movement and much more involved in the final play, which explains why his points with the man advantage are primary in nature.

He won't get as many secondary assists because if the puck gets to him, it's either going into the net, being passed across for a tap-in, or the play is essentially over. The guy standing in front of the net is not usually part of the puck cycle on the PP, but that doesn't mean he's ineffective or isn't providing value on the PP in terms of "goal creation".

 

[LeafsNation75]

The notion that he gets a lot of secondary assists because of the powerplay is a fact because he gets a lot of secondary assists on the powerplay.

I've never stated that Marner isn't a good puck possession player or a good playmaker, I was stating that the accumulation of secondary assists on the powerplay is due to the role that he plays with the man advantage.

As a playmaker, he should have more assists than Tkachuk at EV and he does, just as Tkachuk, as a shooter, has more goals at EV than Marner does.

I suspect that Brady will likely put up more goal totals moving forward than Marner, not necessarily only because he's a better shooter (though he may well be) but because of the role that he plays.

I never stated that the number of his secondary assists this season via the power play was wrong.

If you look at Marner's scoring log for this season in the link I posted, you will see he has 16 secondary assists on the power play, whereas at 5v5 he has 15 primary assists.

So, there is not a huge difference when you look at his primary assists at 5v5 compared to secondary assists on the power play.

As for Brady scoring more goals, as of today he has 20 and Marner has 19. Last season in 72 games Marner had 35 which was a career best for him in the NHL. Do you honestly think Brady ends up with more at the end of this season?

 

[NyQuil]

There are individual things that Tkachuk is probably better at than Marner, but I am discussing offensive impact, defensive impact, and additional impact, not every single possible skill. High ixG is great, but the objective is to create goals. High ixG isn't much benefit if you've shown to consistently underperform your ixG, because you don't have the shot or skills to make use of the positions and shot opportunities that you can get yourself into.

My issue was with you saying "literally everything". That is all. I've been clear on that from the beginning.

I don't think I"m out of line in assuming that "literally everything" refers to "literally" "everything."

I agree that Marner has a greater offensive impact, though the gap has narrowed some with Tkachuk's development and improved linemates, which we see in the statistics this year.

I also agree that Marner is the better defensive player.

I would quibble about your "additional impact", because I think there's a lot that Tkachuk can offer in that area, but whatever, you're pretty wedded to your definition.

Put all of that together, and Marner is the all-around better player than Tkachuk.

Why would someone choose Tkachuk over Marner in the context of this poll? "Who would you take on your team?"

Well, there are a number of reasons, none of which have to do with him being a better overall player:

1. The poster's favourite team doesn't have the cap space, or is unwilling to dedicate the cap space.

2. The poster would prefer to have a lesser player on a smaller contract for a longer contractual period. Is 5 years of Brady worth more than 2 years of Marner?

3. The poster's team already has a Marner, but doesn't have a Tkachuk. Tkachuk really is a rarity in terms of leading the NHL in hits as far as top six forwards are concerned, while still putting up PPG production, fighting, crashing the net and defending his teammates. These are aspects of the game that, despite your assertion, are still valuable despite not showing up on the scoresheet.

4. The poster believes that the playoffs are more physical than the regular season and that a player like Tkachuk holds more value in the post-season, despite having no track record to date.

5. The poster doesn't like the Leafs and votes against them every time. It happens.

I like Marner a great deal, and I'm hopeful that Stutzle develops into a similar player. They have a lot of the same strengths in terms of mobility and vision, and unsurprisingly, they occupy similar roles on their respective teams, right down to the PK now that Stutzle has been made a mainstay.

What I object to is the notion that Tkachuk has nothing productive to offer that Marner can already offer. That is a falsehood IMO, and I won't change my mind about that.

 

[NyQuil]

I never stated that the number of his secondary assists this season via the power play was wrong.

If you look at Marner's scoring log for this season in the link I posted, you will see he has 16 secondary assists on the power play, whereas at 5v5 he has 15 primary assists.

So, there is not a huge difference when you look at his primary assists at 5v5 compared to secondary assists on the power play.

Meanwhile, Tkachuk has 11 primary assists on the PP and 11 primary assists at even strength.

Do you honestly think Marner would have 16 secondary assists on the PP if he was standing in front of the net?

He plays a different role on the PP because of his skillset, a role that requires him to have and distribute the puck a great deal. Tkachuk's role results in him having the puck less. He's obviously not as good at puck possession and distribution, but he is very good at tipping pucks in front of the net, and keeping the goalie and opposing defencemen occupied.

I'm not going to get into posting clips like you, because I'm sure I'd be accused of being selective, but the number of PP goals scored by Ottawa's #2 ranked PP where Tkachuk is blocking the goalie's vision is high.

He gets no assists for doing so, but defencemen have a hard time moving him out of the way and he contributes in a fashion that doesn't show up on the score sheet.

As for Brady scoring more goals, as of today he has 20 and Marner has 19. Last season in 72 games Marner had 35 which was a career best for him in the NHL. Do you honestly think Brady ends up with more at the end of this season?

I do think it's possible.

He's already benefitting from the improved play of Tim Stutzle, who is a much better puck distributor than Josh Norris, his C last season, and who was largely a shoot-first centre.

We shall see.

 

[Dekes For Days]

He's basically confirming that the role that a forward plays has an impact on the type of production that they accumulate. Something that I've said from the beginning and was roundly derided for it.

To be clear, you had pushback because you attempted to dismiss parts of Marner's offensive impact because his PP production happened to skew more to a certain type this year.

My issue was with you saying "literally everything". That is all. I've been clear on that from the beginning.

It was pretty clear from the beginning, and from the discussion it came from, that that was referring to offensive impacts, defensive impacts, and additional impacts.

Put all of that together, and Marner is the all-around better player than Tkachuk.

Agreed. Not sure why that was so hard to get to.

 

[NyQuil]

Agreed. Not sure why that was so hard to get to.

Well, it took you a couple dozen posts to get to this:

There are individual things that Tkachuk is probably better at than Marner

Not so hard now, was it?

Glad we resolved it.

additional impacts.

Don't you mean "additional impact"?

There's only one apparently, PK. According to you, no other aspect of play outside of the PK has any additional positive impact.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Do you honestly think Marner would have 16 secondary assists on the PP if he was standing in front of the net?

Did you ever think Marner has 16 secondary assists on the power play because it comes from him shooting the puck a lot more. How about the fact he's one the best playmakers in the NHL, so he's great at making passes to setup goals, which ends up with him getting the secondary assist while on the power play.

 

[NyQuil]

Did you ever think Marner has 16 secondary assists on the power play because it comes from him shooting the puck a lot more. How about the fact he's one the best playmakers in the NHL, so he's great at making passes to setup goals, which ends up with him getting the secondary assist while on the power play.

I have no idea what you are trying to argue with me about.

What do you think I’m saying?

 

[LeafsNation75]

I have no idea what you are trying to argue with me about.

What do you think I’m saying?

I'm saying Marner's 16 secondary assists on the power play comes from him shooting the puck a lot more, because Marner previously said he wanted to work on having a better shot.

 

[NyQuil]

I'm saying Marner's 16 secondary assists on the power play comes from him shooting the puck a lot more, because Marner previously said he wanted to work on having a better shot.

Ok, but he still has the puck on his stick in a shooting position because he’s playing a different role on the PP than Brady Tkachuk who is literally standing in front of the net with his back to the goalie much of the time.

Marner can’t play that role on the PP, just as Tkachuk is not a PP QB or primary shooting option.

They are different players with different skill sets.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Ok, but he still has the puck on his stick in a shooting position because he’s playing a different role on the PP than Brady Tkachuk who is literally standing in front of the net with his back to the goalie much of the time.

Marner can’t play that role on the PP, just as Tkachuk is not a PP QB or primary shooting option.

They are different players with different skill sets.

Ok, let me ask you this. If Brady didn't stand in front of the net while on the power play, how many less goals do you think he would end up with?

At least with Marner as the shooting option he's either going to have goals scored by the puck going into the net, or there will be rebounds and deflections, which will mean he's getting assists. The only question is would those be primary or secondary.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Looking forward to the Knies > Stutzle takes next year because he "plays a playoff style game" despite a likely large point gap

 

[NyQuil]

Looking forward to the Knies > Stutzle takes next year because he "plays a playoff style game" despite a likely large point gap

Marner has 60 points in 52 games for 1.15 PPG. Tkachuk has 51 points in 50 games for 1.02 PPG

Stutzle has 49 points in 46 games for 1.07 PPG.

If we're talking about an equivalent situation, that would mean Knies would be putting up 0.94 PPG or pacing for 77 points.

That's a pretty high bar you're setting for a kid in his rookie season. Good luck with that.

If he does put up 77 points while in the top ten for hits and top five in game-winning goals, maybe there's an actual discussion to be had.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Marner has 60 points in 52 games for 1.15 PPG. Tkachuk has 51 points in 50 games for 1.02 PPG

Stutzle has 49 points in 46 games for 1.07 PPG.

If we're talking about an equivalent situation, that would mean Knies would be putting up 0.94 PPG or pacing for 77 points.

That's a pretty high bar you're setting for a kid in his rookie season. Good luck with that.

If he does put up 77 points while in the top ten for hits and top five in game-winning goals, maybe there's an actual discussion to be had.

The entire Leafs offense regressed this year. Unrelatedly I am sure the team is now top 10 defensively across the board despite some key injuries there.

Where does Ottawa rank defensively?

 

[NyQuil]

The entire Leafs offense regressed this year. Unrelatedly I am sure the team is now top 10 defensively across the board despite some key injuries there.

Where does Ottawa rank defensively?

Not well.

We've also had some key injuries, if that's a thing you're bringing up.

I'm not sure what this has to do with Tkachuk, Marner, Stutzle and Knies, or are you just changing the subject for some reason?

Marner is the best defensive player of the bunch, I've never said otherwise.

 

[LeafsNation75]

The entire Leafs offense regressed this year. Unrelatedly I am sure the team is now top 10 defensively across the board despite some key injuries there.

Where does Ottawa rank defensively?

Here are the Leafs stats through 52 games this season compared to last year.

Metric	2021-22	2022-23
Record	34-14-4 (72 points)	31-13-8 (70 points)
5-on-5 goals for	128	112
5-on-5 goals against	115	86
CF/60	60.37	57.33
CA/60	52.98	53.52
SF/60	33.52	30.61
SA/60	30.19	27.18
xGF/60	2.79	2.86
xGA/60	2.34	2.42
PP	30% (1st)	25% (7th)
PK	85% (4th)	79.4% (16th)

 

[LeafsNation75]

3. The poster's team already has a Marner, but doesn't have a Tkachuk. Tkachuk really is a rarity in terms of leading the NHL in hits as far as top six forwards are concerned, while still putting up PPG production, fighting, crashing the net and defending his teammates. These are aspects of the game that, despite your assertion, are still valuable despite not showing up on the scoresheet.

I'm not actually comparing them as players, but wouldn't you say that Michael Bunting plays the role Tkachuk does for defending his teammates?

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

Well this is an old thread but I'm gonna go with Brady.

9% of cap hit vs 13%

$8.2 vs $11

Marner......great player......

Runs the team, team runs through him.

I don't really like that.

 

[NyQuil]

I'm not actually comparing them as players, but wouldn't you say that Michael Bunting plays the role Tkachuk does for defending his teammates?

It’s nice to see Bunting standing up for his teammates.

It’s a bit of a different situation where he doesn’t have a fight at the NHL level and hasn’t actually dropped them since 2019-2020, while Tkachuk has 23 fights at the NHL level.

Depending on whether you think fighting is of any value in this area, Tkachuk has a bit of a leg up in that area.

You don’t necessarily want Tkachuk sitting for 5 minutes, but he has engaged players who have taken liberties in the past and it’s nice to have a bit of a deterrent in the top six.

Some people think that fighting is pointless at this stage, and I’m not a fan of the staged heavyweight fights, but having a guy that can go toe to toe can be a nice insurance policy if things go south.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Well, it took you a couple dozen posts to get to this:

No, you were just talking about something entirely different. If you'd just acknowledged that Marner was the better player days ago, we would have saved a lot of time.

According to you, no other aspect of play outside of the PK has any additional positive impact.

No, it's just that everything else would fall under the offensive and defensive impact categories. PK is only really separate because it's a whole additional game state being played.

 

[NyQuil]

No, it's just that everything else would fall under the offensive and defensive impact categories. PK is only really separate because it's a whole additional game state being played.

The same applies to the PP.

Glad we cleared up that “literally everything” is not in fact literally everything.

Because that made no sense.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The same applies to the PP.

Both play on the PP though, so it can just be compared under the offensive category.

Glad we cleared up that “literally everything” is not in fact literally everything.

Yes, I'm glad we cleared up that I was referring to the overall categories I was discussing when you interjected, that I repeatedly clarified.

 

[NyQuil]

Both play on the PP though, so it can just be compared under the offensive category.

Ah, I see.

I was referring more to the fact that it's a different game state.

 

[LeafsNation75]

It’s nice to see Bunting standing up for his teammates.

It’s a bit of a different situation where he doesn’t have a fight at the NHL level and hasn’t actually dropped them since 2019-2020, while Tkachuk has 23 fights at the NHL level.

Depending on whether you think fighting is of any value in this area, Tkachuk has a bit of a leg up in that area.

You don’t necessarily want Tkachuk sitting for 5 minutes, but he has engaged players who have taken liberties in the past and it’s nice to have a bit of a deterrent in the top six.

Some people think that fighting is pointless at this stage, and I’m not a fan of the staged heavyweight fights, but having a guy that can go toe to toe can be a nice insurance policy if things go south.

Since Bunting can score goals and because he's not your traditional fighter, isn't it better if he's not in the penalty box for 5:00 minutes because of a fight?

If he gets 2:00 minutes for roughing because he jumped in so Matthews and Marner wouldn't have to fight, that's something I can be okay with happening.