Player Discussion Brady Tkachuk (LW) - Part XI

[TheDebater]

Wilson, Ovie, Kane, Landeskog, Svechnikov, Benn, Anderson, Meier, Bennett, Bettuzzi etc

More common than you think.

Do you realize what you have just done by listing those players in a discussion trying to imply that Brady Tkachuk is vastly overpaid?

And I say vastly because most fans agree he is slightly overpaid but from the recent posts from certain members in this thread you would think he is over paid by 3 million dollars...and then you go listing similar players who most of which are elite players in the NHL.

Edit: also, most of those players are not actually on Brady's level physically.

 

[BankStreetParade]

I don't think Brady is off-limits but look at the talent around him, is crap. There aren't any elite forwards like Marner or Marchessault or Kucherov, just some good to better than good guys. So obviously Brady isn't going to pot 40+ on this team. Once Dorion gets him an elite pivot, he'll put the numbers up. He can still draw penalties quite well and agitate, which are also important elements.

Oh come on, what a lame excuse. Connor Brown has the same P/GP pace, who the hell does he play with on the team that's so much better than Tkachuk's linemates?

 

[ijif]

So what's your point? Benn started hitting that production in his 7th season of hockey after being drafted. He got drafted out of the BCHL, then spent two seasons in the WHL before turning pro. He then spent 3 seasons in the NHL and in his 4th season there was a lockout so he split the season between the DEL and NHL. It was his fifth season in the NHL when he experienced that significant jump in production and it was his sixth and seventh seasons (8th and 9th seasons after being drafted) where he produced over a point per game.

Tkachuk is in his 4th season since being drafted. He still has the remainder of this season and two more seasons before he will be at the same point Benn was when he experienced that jump in production. Benn took a while to grow into that player. Why is it that other players are able to grow over the course of their careers but there is this assumption that Tkachuk can't or won't?

Tkachuk has had one season in the NHL where he had the opportunity to play with established top six forwards. That was his first season where he got to play a good portion of it with Mark Stone and Matt Duchene. Ever since then he has played with 3rd liners, unproven talent and rookies. In his second season (2019-20) Tkachuk lead the team in points. The rest of the team was comprised of forwards like Brown, Pageau, Duclair, Tierney, Ennis, Namestnikov, White and Anisimov. The majority of those players hadn't proven the ability to produce more than 40 points to 45 points, or if they had their recent production prior to them joining the Sens was trending downwards.

In his 3rd season (2020-21) they brought in Dadanov who struggled to produce, they saw a decline in production by the likes of White and Tierney. Tkachuk got to play with Batherson and Norris who were still unproven at the NHL level and both players as rookies went through stretches where they looked excellent and stretches where they struggled but in the end they had good production. This season, his 4th, he had a chance to play with Norris and Batherson who had finally proven to have solid production and Tkachuk's production looked like it was going to end up pretty close to a point per game. But then Batherson got injured and then Norris got injured as well. So Tkachuk was back to playing with mostly 3rd liners or with good but unproven talents such as Stützle and Formenton.

Look at the players on Benn's team in his first few seasons. There was a significant amount more of proven and established top six talent. Tkachuk can continue to develop and like Benn he will benefit from being surrounded by stronger offensive players.

My point is that your expectations are incredibly high.

I am not claiming that Brady cannot improve, and I don't think anyone is claiming that; however, there is a big difference between Brady improving and Brady improving to the point he can secure an Art Ross, have three straight top 10 point finishes, and be top 3 in points scored over a 4 year span. Additionally, not every player takes huge strides from solid young player to elite player. You can look at Evander Kane or Gabriel Landeskog. Why do you think Brady's offensive potential is closer to Benn than those two players?

 

[BankStreetParade]

I know it is only a handful of members if not less who are outspoken with their negative opinion of Brady, but my goodness is it such a narrow minded opinion.

To put things into perspective, this idea that Brady Tkachuk needs to somehow score 75+ points to justify his contract is simply unrealistic and unjustified, considering the player.

Brady Tkachuk has 191 hits so far this season, the most on the team of course, and do you know who is 2nd and 3rd? Watson and Sanford who have a combined 48 hits more than Brady, only 48, combined, as in two players. Watson has 122 hits and his main job is to be physical and play a specific role on this team, yet Brady still does it better while also being great at other aspects of the game.

Do some of you understand how difficult it is to play that type of style, every game, while taking a beating infront of the net....and still managing to score and put up points? Do you know how absolutely rare that type of player is in the NHL??

Even with all that physicality he displays and exerts every single game, Tkachuk currently leads the team in points, and even if Batherson was healthy and led the team in points, Brady would be right there at #2 or at worst #3 and it is definitely fair to assume he would have way more points than he does now if Norris and Batherson were not injured at the same time.

Why pick Sanford? He's not known for being a physical guy. Why not account for TOI? Comparing a guy who gets premium first line minutes to a guy who gets 4th line minutes is kinda whack. Go to a Hits/60 to quantify the actual TOI differential and Watson is at 15.03 vs. Brady's 11.80. What a weird comparison and even worse is that you think you're making some really amazing point about hitting of all things being an indicator of player quality?

 

[Answer]

Why pick Sanford? He's not known for being a physical guy. Why not account for TOI? Comparing a guy who gets premium first line minutes to a guy who gets 4th line minutes is kinda whack. Go to a Hits/60 to quantify the actual TOI differential and Watson is at 15.03 vs. Brady's 11.80. What a weird comparison and even worse is that you think you're making some really amazing point about hitting of all things being an indicator of player quality?

To be fair to him, at least he didn't pick White, who has maybe 5 hits this season? His argument would've looked really strong then

 

[Bileur]

Wilson, Ovie, Kane, Landeskog, Svechnikov, Benn, Anderson, Meier, Bennett, Bettuzzi etc

More common than you think.

Among those guys you mentioned only Anderson had even half as many hits as Brady last season.

But even if we went with that list of players, ~120 forwards scored at a 20+ goal pace last season the “physical” ones are still less than 10% of the total. Brady is by far the most physical and is definitely abnormal even among the physical guys.

 

[JungleBeat]

Among those guys you mentioned only Anderson had even half as many hits as Brady last season.

But even if we went with that list of players, ~120 forwards scored at a 20+ goal pace last season the “physical” ones are still less than 10% of the total. Brady is by far the most physical and is definitely abnormal even among the physical guys.

Those players are too busy scoring and creating plays than to hit on dead plays anyways. When the games get tough they are physical though.

Brady should focus more on trying to backcheck instead of hits on dead plays.

 

[Bileur]

Why pick Sanford? He's not known for being a physical guy. Why not account for TOI? Comparing a guy who gets premium first line minutes to a guy who gets 4th line minutes is kinda whack. Go to a Hits/60 to quantify the actual TOI differential and Watson is at 15.03 vs. Brady's 11.80. What a weird comparison and even worse is that you think you're making some really amazing point about hitting of all things being an indicator of player quality?

He picked Sanford because Sanford is top 3 on the team in hits as he specifically stated.

Hits/60 is a worse indication because guys like Scott Sabourin, Parker Kelly and to an extent Watson (with the exception of PK) aren’t asked to do anything but hit. They get just a few mins a game where they are asked to finish checks and skate back to the bench and sit down. That automatically boosts their hits/60 because their minutes on the ice aren’t spent doing anything else.

Brady is asked to be one of the leaders of the team’s offense while playing physical. They are not the same. Again, it’s part of what makes him special, he plays an incredibly physical game while being a top 6 forward.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

People need to chill out. Brady has played well. IMO he's made some improvements to his game since last year. He has:

1) Cut out a significant portion of the super-low percentage shots, making him a better possession player. Basically he's playing a slightly smarter game.
2) Become noticeably stronger on his skates. He falls less and stays on his feet in battles and scrums more often. As a result he comes off the boards with possession more than he did last year. I think he's put in the work off the ice and it's helping his game.

He still is not a good defensive forward. One of the worst on the team in fact. He really needs to work on that. He also needs to take better care of the puck. He's shooting from bad spots less but he needs to clean up his passing.

At the end of the day the guy is 22 years old and, in all likelihood, will continue to improve over the next couple of seasons. I don't understand the need to rush to judgement on such a young player. Same goes for Formenton, Brannstrom, Stützle, etc.. It's weird.

 

[Bileur]

Those players are too busy scoring and creating plays than to hit on dead plays anyways. When the games get tough they are physical though.

Brady should focus more on trying to backcheck instead of hits on dead plays.

Brady still managed to outscore Meier, Benn, Anderson, Wilson, Bennett, and Bertuzzi (injuries though) despite playing on a worse team than most of them so maybe they should find ways to contribute more to their teams like Brady does.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Personally when you are making 8mill plus your physical game should complement your offensive game.

For Brady it seems like the physical side is the main focus of his game and the offense is only a bonus, with the defense being an afterthought.

If we were losing games because we were being outhit sure I can see the value at that number but we aren't losing games because we are being outhit.

We are losing because we are being outplayed offensively and defensively. And it is fair to expect your 8.2 million dollar player to play better offence and to actually care about the defensive side.

 

[Answer]

Personally when you are making 8mill plus your physical game should complement your offensive game.

For Brady it seems like the physical side is the main focus of his game and the offense is only a bonus, with the defense being an afterthought.

If we were losing games because we were being outhit sure I can see the value at that number but we aren't losing games because we are being outhit.

We are losing because we are being outplayed offensively and defensively. And it is fair to expect your 8.2 million dollar player to play better offence and to actually care about the defensive side.

Exactly my thought.

Some fans think that his offensively as dominant as Eric Lindros, which is not true, at least not yet.

 

[umma gumma]

Exactly my thought.

Some fans think that his offensively as dominant as Eric Lindros, which is not true, at least not yet.

I really doubt anyone that saw Lindros play thinks this.

 

[GCK]

Those players are too busy scoring and creating plays than to hit on dead plays anyways. When the games get tough they are physical though.

Brady should focus more on trying to backcheck instead of hits on dead plays.

Brady was very good on the back check last night. He broke up several plays, he could be more consistent in this.

 

[GCK]

Personally when you are making 8mill plus your physical game should complement your offensive game.

For Brady it seems like the physical side is the main focus of his game and the offense is only a bonus, with the defense being an afterthought.

If we were losing games because we were being outhit sure I can see the value at that number but we aren't losing games because we are being outhit.

We are losing because we are being outplayed offensively and defensively. And it is fair to expect your 8.2 million dollar player to play better offence and to actually care about the defensive side.

Why is this still being litigated. There are 2 camps who view player effectiveness differently. There will never be agreement.

 

[HSF]

Brady at his current price and production is def overpaid the numbers show that

lets see next year with a hopefully improved roster

 

[GCK]

Brady at his current price and production is def overpaid the numbers show that

lets see next year with a hopefully improved roster

His contract was definitely an overpayment but really overpaying your best players is far easier to stomach than overpaying you depth / role players. Brady is a 7.25 7.5 AAV player based on comparables so it’s not like we overpaid by 2-3M.

 

[HSF]

His contract was definitely an overpayment but really overpaying your best players is far easier to stomach than overpaying you depth / role players. Brady is a 7.25 7.5 AAV player based on comparables so it’s not like we overpaid by 2-3M.

ya i agree

i rather not overpay anyone but if you have to its your star core guys

 

[TheDebater]

Why pick Sanford? He's not known for being a physical guy. Why not account for TOI? Comparing a guy who gets premium first line minutes to a guy who gets 4th line minutes is kinda whack. Go to a Hits/60 to quantify the actual TOI differential and Watson is at 15.03 vs. Brady's 11.80. What a weird comparison and even worse is that you think you're making some really amazing point about hitting of all things being an indicator of player quality?

To be fair to him, at least he didn't pick White, who has maybe 5 hits this season? His argument would've looked really strong then

As @Bileur already pointed out, I did not "randomly" pick Sanford as an example, the fact you guys did not know his stat line and jumped to this conclusion simply displays a clear bias in your view of players.

Sanford is #3 in hits on the team.

 

[TheDebater]

Also can somebody point me towards the goal posts in this thread, it seems not only they have shifted but they seemed to have completely disappeared.

 

[Answer]

As @Bileur already pointed out, I did not "randomly" pick Sanford as an example, the fact you guys did not know his stat line and jumped to this conclusion simply displays a clear bias in your view of players.

Sanford is #3 in hits on the team.

I am not being bias towards anyone. All the players are same to me, as long as the team wins.

It was just a casual statement I made, wasn't trying to make any point here

 

[BankStreetParade]

He picked Sanford because Sanford is top 3 on the team in hits as he specifically stated.

Hits/60 is a worse indication because guys like Scott Sabourin, Parker Kelly and to an extent Watson (with the exception of PK) aren’t asked to do anything but hit. They get just a few mins a game where they are asked to finish checks and skate back to the bench and sit down. That automatically boosts their hits/60 because their minutes on the ice aren’t spent doing anything else.

Brady is asked to be one of the leaders of the team’s offense while playing physical. They are not the same. Again, it’s part of what makes him special, he plays an incredibly physical game while being a top 6 forward.

Who cares? Zaitsev is top 5 in blocked shots on the team, what does that mean when you don't provide any additional context to the point that's being made?
You guys stan this guy so hard like any ounce of displeasure with his game automatically infers hatred of the player. Saw the same shit with Karlsson, dude was beyond reproach when it came to his mistakes but he at least had multiple Norris trophies and historic seasons to his credit to buy himself some forgiveness for lapses in his play. This guy hasn't done anything except rack up the intangibles awards and platitudes from a part of this fanbase obsessed with making him sound like he's the most impactful player in the NHL because he hits and shoots a lot. What a mindf*** this is lol. You guys can breathe, no one is saying he's shit and no one is questioning whether he's a good player or not. Hell, no one is even suggesting that he can't improve and reduce some of these inconsistencies in his game. Some of us are just calling a spade a spade. When Brady has some awards or accomplishments to add to his resume there will be more leeway offered when he makes boneheaded mistakes.

 

[BankStreetParade]

As @Bileur already pointed out, I did not "randomly" pick Sanford as an example, the fact you guys did not know his stat line and jumped to this conclusion simply displays a clear bias in your view of players.

Sanford is #3 in hits on the team.

It's a stupid stat to pick because it's totally meaningless without context. Want proof?
Stutzle has more hits than Nick Paul and Ennis has 6x as many hits as Connor Brown. What on earth does that prove?

 

[Golden_Jet]

It proves there more physical players.

 

[TheDebater]

It's a stupid stat to pick because it's totally meaningless without context. Want proof?
Stutzle has more hits than Nick Paul and Ennis has 6x as many hits as Connor Brown. What on earth does that prove?

What context would you like me to provide? And why is the hit stat meaningless to you? What about the goal? Brady is 2nd on the team...points? Currently leads the team...

Feel free to provide me with the criteria you consider to be relevant in Brady's situation.