Player Discussion Brady Tkachuk (LW) - Part XI

[aragorn]

Brady is funny, goes +150% on the forecheck but -100% on the backcheck.

There you go again ...

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

There you go again ...

meh dont think im wrong.

I guess he tires himself out from the forecheck or something because effort going back is a whole different story.

 

[Sun God Nika]

Most of these guys are ppg players. Brady and Drouin seem to be the outcasts.

thats basically half of Bradys rookie season and the two seasons after, while him being the only constant on a team that finished bottom 5 every year he was here.

 

[Answer]

thats basically half of Bradys rookie season and the two seasons after, while him being the only constant on a team that finished bottom 5 every year he was here.

I think you are trying to tell us something

 

[aragorn]

meh dont think im wrong.

I guess he tires himself out from the forecheck or something because effort going back is a whole different story.

Trying doing what he does & see if it doesn't tired you out constantly struggling with 200 lb men in front of the net.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Trying doing what he does & see if it doesn't tired you out constantly struggling with 200 lb men in front of the net.

so you agree there is a discrepancy in effort between Bradys forecheck and backcheck?

Brady needs to learn to be more efficient because being so gassed that you start turning pucks over or that you start coasting on the backcheck isn't helping his team.

you can't innately trust advanced stats but when the eye test matches the numbers its pretty damning evidence.

 

[bicboi64]

so you agree there is a discrepancy in effort between Bradys forecheck and backcheck?

Brady needs to learn to be more efficient because being so gassed that you start turning pucks over or that you start coasting on the backcheck isn't helping his team.

you can't innately trust advanced stats but when the eye test matches the numbers its pretty damning evidence.

I agree that Brady needs to be more efficient in his play. His hitting is the most effective when he hits someone and it puts him and his line in a position to get a hold of the puck. Hitting someone just to tire them out isn't sustainable. Ovechkin used to do that and he's had to change up his game. I'm fine with Brady going ballz to the wall every now and then, but strategic hitting is something we'll need out of him. His long reach is needed on the backcheck

 

[aragorn]

so you agree there is a discrepancy in effort between Bradys forecheck and backcheck?

Brady needs to learn to be more efficient because being so gassed that you start turning pucks over or that you start coasting on the backcheck isn't helping his team.

you can't innately trust advanced stats but when the eye test matches the numbers its pretty damning evidence.

No I don't agree, I'm asking you if you know what that is like fighting big guys for puck possession & space on every shift & how tiring that can be? Have you ever done it? I don't think you do know because I don't think you have ever played a sport at such a high level or maybe even any competitive level to know or you wouldn't make such ridiculous comments. These guys are in peak performance shape, I'n never heard anyone ever say that Tkachuck is not in shape & it's ridiculous to say otherwise when you don't know what you are talking about especially at this point of the season when they have played so many games in such a short period of time.

 

[ijif]

hey analytics.

So many stats rely on Replacement level player.

How is that defined, or determined? does it not open up to the argument of a floating reference point.

I read things like: an NHL/AHL tweener, back and forth guy. is that not broad. Who chooses which ones?

It depends on the model. Whoever creates the model will be the one that decides how replacement is defined. Here is the author of the model used in the graphic discussing the definition of replacement level:

"In order to define replacement level, my goal was to find players who could easily be acquired and landed one consistent standard that I could apply across all forwards, defensemen, and goalies: all players with a cap hit below $850,000 who signed their contracts as UFAs are replacement level. The baseline for replacement level was calculated using the aggregate of their performance. As it turned out, my replacement level player is not all that bad; they’re actually a bit above average defensively, but this is more than offset by their poor offensive play-driving and horrible shooting. If I had to apply this to a real life observation, most of them just practice risk mitigation every time they’re on the ice, and they’re actually quite good at it. Over the course of these 3 seasons, among all skaters who played at least 200 combined minutes at even strength, on the power play, and shorthanded, exactly 0 wins above replacement is 37th percentile. In other words, my best estimate is that 37% of players with a decent sample size provided contributions below replacement level." (Wins Above Replacement — High Level Overview)

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

No I don't agree, I'm asking you if you know what that is like fighting big guys for puck possession & space on every shift & how tiring that can be? Have you ever done it? I don't think you do know because I don't think you have ever played a sport at such a high level or maybe even any competitive level to know or you wouldn't make such ridiculous comments. These guys are in peak performance shape, I'n never heard anyone ever say that Tkachuck is not in shape & it's ridiculous to say otherwise when you don't know what you are talking about especially at this point of the season when they have played so many games in such a short period of time.

I don't understand what you are saying.

Are you saying I haven't played sports at a high level so I don't know how much energy it takes to absorb and make contact in front of the net?

Because what I am saying is that battling like that is clearly a huge expenditure of energy and it is understandable if Brady has no energy to skate back and play defense.

 

[aragorn]

I don't understand what you are saying.

Are you saying I haven't played sports at a high level so I don't know how much energy it takes to absorb and make contact in front of the net?

Because what I am saying is that battling like that is clearly a huge expenditure of energy and it is understandable if Brady has no energy to skate back and play defense.

Then why does it sound like a negative when you say it, when it's a great deal of effort exerted to work that hard every shift? I've done it, I've played at a high level of sports & have the scars to prove it & realize most people have no idea how hard they have to work on every shift or the coach chews you out or benches you for someone who will. It's not like the other guy is just letting you push them around either, they are working just as hard & are just as big & just as determined. If this is what you mean than we agree.

 

[JungleBeat]

thats basically half of Bradys rookie season and the two seasons after, while him being the only constant on a team that finished bottom 5 every year he was here.

Still looks a bit lost defensively

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Then why does it sound like a negative when you say it, when it's a great deal of effort exerted to work that hard every shift? I've done it, I've played at a high level of sports & have the scars to prove it & realize most people have no idea how hard they have to work on every shift or the coach chews you out or benches you for someone who will. It's not like the other guy is just letting you push them around either, they are working just as hard & are just as big & just as determined. If this is what you mean than we agree.

Yes it's crazy hard.

And it sounds negative because it seems like Brady is overextending himself playing like that so it is impacting his play in other areas.

The backcheck is one of these areas but some of these giveaways that Brady has been making look a lot like a player who is gassed and can't execute.

Look I appreciate the way Brady plays but he is not paid big bucks to do what Austin Watson does. He is paid to make an offensive and defensive difference.

 

[aragorn]

Yes it's crazy hard.

And it sounds negative because it seems like Brady is overextending himself playing like that so it is impacting his play in other areas.

The backcheck is one of these areas but some of these giveaways that Brady has been making look a lot like a player who is gassed and can't execute.

Look I appreciate the way Brady plays but he is not paid big bucks to do what Austin Watson does. He is paid to make an offensive and defensive difference.

What about Stutzle, I see him make a lot of mistakes & give aways or is he still too young to expect much more from him? He's going to be good, but he has been struggling as well as of late, what's his problem? I just think the whole team looks tired maybe from the schedule which has been brutal, the flue going through the room, the amount of injuries & so many good players out of the lineup. Then there was Covid at the beginning of the season & playing with so many different players in & out of the lineup including so many AHL players. The better players are expected to do more when others aren't good enough to do more themselves & it must be exhausting, it's got to be wearing them down. Even Chabot has had a rough time & isn't producing like he has in the past. IMO this yr is a write off .

 

[Blacephalon]

What about Stutzle, I see him make a lot of mistakes & give aways or is he still too young to expect much more from him? He's going to be good, but he has been struggling as well as of late, what's his problem? I just think the whole team looks tired maybe from the schedule which has been brutal, the flue going through the room, the amount of injuries & so many good players out of the lineup. Then there was Covid at the beginning of the season & playing with so many different players in & out of the lineup including so many AHL players. The better players are expected to do more when others aren't good enough to do more themselves & it must be exhausting, it's got to be wearing them down. Even Chabot has had a rough time & isn't producing like he has in the past. IMO this yr is a write off .

brady sat out camp and demanded $8mil+. that's the difference.

he thought he was worth so much, that he was bigger than the team and now its time for him to show why he thought he was worth so much. batherson goes down and brady goes silent. seems like he cant carry anything himself.

I'm not saying he has to go out there and kill it but at least show some skill. hes not paid $8 mil for 1-2 plays a game. He needs to be much better.

 

[Bileur]

brady sat out camp and demanded $8mil+. that's the difference.

he thought he was worth so much, that he was bigger than the team and now its time for him to show why he thought he was worth so much. batherson goes down and brady goes silent. seems like he cant carry anything himself.

I'm not saying he has to go out there and kill it but at least show some skill. hes not paid $8 mil for 1-2 plays a game. He needs to be much better.

I don’t get this kind of take. The Sens gave him the contract, they obviously agreed with him that he was worth that much.

Maybe we can hope he produces more consistently but it’s not like he bamboozled the sens. He is bringing exactly what he has always brought and more.

Besides, in the offseason I think most would have agreed that a 65 point Brady with his effort, leadership and physical play would be worth the money. He’s still pacing for 62 over 82 right now even with many games without his regular linemates.

The guy isn’t even a finished product. I’m fine with his trajectory, he’s going to be an absolute unit and a force at 25 when the Sens are competing.

 

[Adrianopolous]

He's been a total non factor since Drake went down. 38p in 50g so far is not what you wound expect after he signed that contract. His defensive woes have been well documented on this thread.

 

[Tuna99]

so you agree there is a discrepancy in effort between Bradys forecheck and backcheck?

Brady needs to learn to be more efficient because being so gassed that you start turning pucks over or that you start coasting on the backcheck isn't helping his team.

you can't innately trust advanced stats but when the eye test matches the numbers its pretty damning evidence.

He comes back alright but what I find surprising about his game is he doesn’t collapse low when trouble starts, he stays up at the blue line kinda cherry picking. Always found that odd about his game he’s got such a good feel for the game but is less concerned about danger around his own net. But that could be coaching. But he also doesn’t have the speed to break away or push D back so it’s kinda odd - might be cheating because of his lack of speed

typical Tkachuk, Walt wasn’t thought to be a conscious Defensive player

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

He's been a total non factor since Drake went down. 38p in 50g so far is not what you wound expect after he signed that contract. His defensive woes have been well documented on this thread.

38 p in 50 games is actually reallly good for the style of game he plays at just 22 without any real star power alongside him. And Im saying this as someone who's been a bit critical of Tkachuk recently.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

38 points in 50 games is really good. The problem is that most of those came when he was playing with a super nova Batherson who was on pace for 100 points.

Since Batherson went down Brady has probably been on pace for like 40-50 points while being a non factor almost every game.

 

[bert]

thats basically half of Bradys rookie season and the two seasons after, while him being the only constant on a team that finished bottom 5 every year he was here.

Imagine grouping a player into that list and thinking yup this proves it he sucks.

It depends on the model. Whoever creates the model will be the one that decides how replacement is defined. Here is the author of the model used in the graphic discussing the definition of replacement level:

"In order to define replacement level, my goal was to find players who could easily be acquired and landed one consistent standard that I could apply across all forwards, defensemen, and goalies: all players with a cap hit below $850,000 who signed their contracts as UFAs are replacement level. The baseline for replacement level was calculated using the aggregate of their performance. As it turned out, my replacement level player is not all that bad; they’re actually a bit above average defensively, but this is more than offset by their poor offensive play-driving and horrible shooting. If I had to apply this to a real life observation, most of them just practice risk mitigation every time they’re on the ice, and they’re actually quite good at it. Over the course of these 3 seasons, among all skaters who played at least 200 combined minutes at even strength, on the power play, and shorthanded, exactly 0 wins above replacement is 37th percentile. In other words, my best estimate is that 37% of players with a decent sample size provided contributions below replacement level." (Wins Above Replacement — High Level Overview)

Which is why advanced analytics should always be a secondary measure in evaluation.

Some of these charts say Brady is incredible some say he stinks. How can someone use one without the other? It just cherry picks for arguments sake which to me says you either have an agenda or you don't understand what you're watching.

 

[Micklebot]

I don’t get this kind of take. The Sens gave him the contract, they obviously agreed with him that he was worth that much.

Uh, no. If they obviously agreed, he'd have likely been signed much earlier.

Tkachuk had the team over a barrel, not signing him was not an option, he had all the leverage.

 

[bert]

38 points in 50 games is really good. The problem is that most of those came when he was playing with a super nova Batherson who was on pace for 100 points.

Since Batherson went down Brady has probably been on pace for like 40-50 points while being a non factor almost every game.

They both benefit from playing with one another. Being physical is an important aspect of hockey. It opens up space, wares the defense out. If you think he is a non factor then you must have never actually played at any level where there was contact.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

They both benefit from playing with one another. Being physical is an important aspect of hockey. It opens up space, wares the defense out. If you think he is a non factor then you must have never actually played at any level where there was contact.

I mean non factor offensively and defensively.
I know he always brings physical energy. Which I do appreciate but again, he's not paid 8.2 million just for physical energy. He needs to do more.

And have you really been happy with Brady's offensive game since Batherson went down? Cuz if you have been we really must have been playing different sports.

If Karlsson or Spezza or even Stone were making giveaways like this they would have been endlessly roasted but Brady gets a pass because he plays physical?

 

[Bileur]

Uh, no. If they obviously agreed, he'd have likely been signed much earlier.

Tkachuk had the team over a barrel, not signing him was not an option, he had all the leverage.

You’re confusing leverage points leading to the agreement and the final agreement. It’s irrelevant that Brady had them in a tough spot, they still determined there was more value in signing him for that figure than not.

They could have traded his rights. They didn’t.

When someone buys the house down the street for 400k more than it sold for three years ago did they objectively overpay? Maybe, but that’s the price they were willing to pay and the price the seller was willing to sell for, it’s what both parties thought made sense for them.

It’s not arguable; the contract was signed. Obviously at the time it was signed both parties agreed to that price and return.