Brad Marchand hits 900 points

[wetcoast]

Such an unusual career trajectory.

I guess the late in the career points surge after getting PP TOI is a bit unusual sure.

7 years as a second-liner, several of which he was compared to Gallagher,

Marchand already had 2 established NHL seasons before Gallergher ever played in the NHL and they have somewhat similar games but Marchand was always seen as the better player.

and then decides to become a top tier player in his 8th season.

This doesn't seem like the right narrative as the only real difference was a huge increase in PP TOI.

He still had 27 ESG exactly the same as the year before but did have 9 more ESA but the big difference is that he went from 8 PPP to 24 PPP.

He is very close to a lock HHOF and Pasta is already really close as well.

I'd also be really surprised if Charlie McAvoy doesn't end up in the HHOF.

He is only 26 and will have another top 10 Norris finish to go along with his 4,5,10,18 run so far although he always seems to miss some games a bit like Letang.

 

[tarheelhockey]

There's no hall of fame for Marchand. One-time cup winner. No personal hardware. His discipline record may well be enough to sway a few votes against him

Only 98 players have scored 1000 points. Of those, 65 are in the Hall of Fame. 16 others are ineligible because they’re active or recently retired.

Here are the others:

Jeremy Roenick
Bernie Nicholls
Vincent Damphousse *
Rod Brind’Amour * Selke(2)
Theo Fleury 2AS(1)
Dave Taylor 2AS(1)
Keith Tkachuk 2AS(2)
Ray Whitney * 2AS(1)
Pat Verbeek *
Bobby Smith *
Doug Weight *
Alexander Mogilny * 2AS(2)
Alexei Kovalev * 2AS(1)
Patrik Elias ** 1AS(2)
Brian Bellows * 2AS(1)
Dale Hunter
Steve Larmer *
Brian Propp


Asterisks denote a Stanley Cup. After that I’ve noted personal hardware and the number of times they received it. AS means 1st and 2nd postseason all star teams, where the player is voted the best at his position. In parentheses is the number of times they received it.

As you can see, there are two clear front-runners here: Elias with his two Cups and two 1st team all star selections, and Brind’Amour’s Cup and two Selkes. After them, it’s Tkachuk and Mogilny and then a big drop to guys who aren’t likely to ever make it.

In this context, Marchand’s credentials:

Brad Marchand * 1AS(2) 2AS(2)

He doubles the personal hardware of the next-best guy on the list, and he checks the “Cup ring” box. Bear in mind this is a list of players who already have 1000 points, so this is the short-list of forward candidates other than recent retirees.

It’s also really worth noting that on this entire list, only one player (Elias, 1995) came into the league after 1991. Everyone else played in the historic high-scoring era, famously Mogilny and Nicholls scoring 70+ goals in a season which is just preposterous by today’s standards. Elias didn’t get that scoring boost, having played through the heart of the Dead Puck Era instead. And then there’s Marchand, whose career began in 2010 which was also a low scoring period.

He might have to wait a few rounds, depending on who comes eligible in a particular year. But IMO it’s a near certainty that he’s selected within a few years after he becomes eligible.

 

[Coffey]

Ah..The Rat,

so it has a name!

I haven’t laughed that hard from an HF post in a long time. The avatar combined with the post. Chefs kiss.

 

[Ducer]

True Warrior.

 

[Gee Wally]

He’s the guy other teams love to hate but would also love him on their team.

Hate all they want but he’s a helluva hockey player.

 

[Ghost of Murph]

Easily makes the HOF. His all-around game was among the best in the NHL for multiple years. PP, PK, 5 on 5, defense, offense, you name it. Hardware. Captain. One of those players opposing fans detest, but would love to have on their team. I wish there were more players like him in the league. Talented villains make the game more entertaining.

 

[PB37]

Over the past 10 years

7th in goals
8th in points
2nd in plus/minus
PPG

He's been one of the elite players of the game for a good time now. I think his credentials will make a good case for him.

 

[JD1]

Only 98 players have scored 1000 points. Of those, 65 are in the Hall of Fame. 16 others are ineligible because they’re active or recently retired.

Here are the others:

Jeremy Roenick
Bernie Nicholls
Vincent Damphousse *
Rod Brind’Amour * Selke(2)
Theo Fleury 2AS(1)
Dave Taylor 2AS(1)
Keith Tkachuk 2AS(2)
Ray Whitney * 2AS(1)
Pat Verbeek *
Bobby Smith *
Doug Weight *
Alexander Mogilny * 2AS(2)
Alexei Kovalev * 2AS(1)
Patrik Elias ** 1AS(2)
Brian Bellows * 2AS(1)
Dale Hunter
Steve Larmer *
Brian Propp


Asterisks denote a Stanley Cup. After that I’ve noted personal hardware and the number of times they received it. AS means 1st and 2nd postseason all star teams, where the player is voted the best at his position. In parentheses is the number of times they received it.

As you can see, there are two clear front-runners here: Elias with his two Cups and two 1st team all star selections, and Brind’Amour’s Cup and two Selkes. After them, it’s Tkachuk and Mogilny and then a big drop to guys who aren’t likely to ever make it.

In this context, Marchand’s credentials:

Brad Marchand * 1AS(2) 2AS(2)

He doubles the personal hardware of the next-best guy on the list, and he checks the “Cup ring” box. Bear in mind this is a list of players who already have 1000 points, so this is the short-list of forward candidates other than recent retirees.

It’s also really worth noting that on this entire list, only one player (Elias, 1995) came into the league after 1991. Everyone else played in the historic high-scoring era, famously Mogilny and Nicholls scoring 70+ goals in a season which is just preposterous by today’s standards. Elias didn’t get that scoring boost, having played through the heart of the Dead Puck Era instead. And then there’s Marchand, whose career began in 2010 which was also a low scoring period.

He might have to wait a few rounds, depending on who comes eligible in a particular year. But IMO it’s a near certainty that he’s selected within a few years after he becomes eligible.

Is there a trophy for an all star selection?

We'll see how it plays out? How much longer does he play? 36 next year. Does his play fall off? He likely gets to 1000 points barring injury, but 1100 isn't so certain. He likely doesn't get 500 goals.

 

[PaulD]

Over the past 10 years

7th in goals
8th in points
2nd in plus/minus
PPG

He's been one of the elite players of the game for a good time now. I think his credentials will make a good case for him.

I think he leads the league for active players in career shorthanded goals too boot

 

[chizzler]

Such an unusual career trajectory. 7 years as a second-liner, several of which he was compared to Gallagher, and then decides to become a top tier player in his 8th season.

It’s all hard work.

 

[jgatie]

Sundin - No Cup, No hardware ....in the Hall.

Not just in the Hall, they put up a freaking statue of him.

 

[Voight]

There's no hall of fame for Marchand. One-time cup winner. No personal hardware. His discipline record may well be enough to sway a few votes against him

2x 1st AST, 2x 2nd AST one of the best at his position for 6 years. He's getting in.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Got a softspot for all the agitators who bring it in the playoffs.

Tikkanen
Claude Lemieux
Theo Fleury
Ken Linesman (The Rat v1.0)

I'd put Marchand in the Hall for sure.

All except Claude Lemieux. There’s a special place in hell waiting for him

 

[tarheelhockey]

Is there a trophy for an all star selection?

I’m sure there is. It’s just not named and passed around. Probably some plaque or statue or something.

The important thing is that it’s an actual NHL award, voted on by the PHWA and counted among the others.

2023 NHL Awards: Full list of winners – Sportsnet.ca

And it’s more important than some of the other “name” awards. Who had a better season, the guy who was a 1st All Star center (i.e. the best centerman in the league) or the Selke winner?

We'll see how it plays out? How much longer does he play? 36 next year. Does his play fall off? He likely gets to 1000 points barring injury, but 1100 isn't so certain. He likely doesn't get 500 goals.

True, but 500 goals isn’t the litmus test it was thirty years ago. For quite some time now, we’ve had less than one draftee per year on average who goes on to hit 500. There are 4 spots per year for HOF’ers. Even if you throw in a defenseman and a goalie (and they won’t induct a goalie per year) there will still be lots of guys getting in with less than 500.

 

[The Hockey Tonk Man]

Such an unusual career trajectory. 7 years as a second-liner, several of which he was compared to Gallagher, and then decides to become a top tier player in his 8th season.

Didn’t really get any pp time till that year also.
Once he did he obviously put up much more poijts

 

[Sheppy]

The game is better with Marchand in it.

 

[BruinsFan37]

I look at some of the players in the HHoF and think: "Brad's a better player then them"

But I also look at some of the players not in the HHoF and think "but he's not better than them".

He's on the edge at the moment to me. Depending upon when he's eligible and who else is up at the time, it wouldn't shock me if he got in first ballot, but I think it's more likely he has to wait a couple of years. It also wouldn't shock me if he was left out/falls short. While I think that's unlikely, he's not a lock, and I'd put his chances at 80-90% right now.

A second cup and/or some individual hardware would very easily lock it up though.

 

[GrumpyKoala]

There's no hall of fame for Marchand. One-time cup winner. No personal hardware. His discipline record may well be enough to sway a few votes against him

Not many players reaching 1000+ points are outside the conversation.

900+ welcome to the convo
1000+ seriously, you are probably in !!
1100+ 99% locked


I can see him going 1000, maybe 1050. So he definitely part of the conversation.

For reference there is 299 players in the hhof (almost 250 that are not goalie/builders)

There is less than 100 players that reached 1000pts

Is there too many folks in, maybe, but as far as marchand, he closer to make a last push to secure it than not.

 

[TD Charlie]

He’s the guy other teams love to hate but would also love him on their team.

Hate all they want but he’s a helluva hockey player.

Hell, I hate him half the time too!

 

[BlackFrancis]

I think he leads the league for active players in career shorthanded goals too boot

I just hope he plays long enough and is effective enough to get to 40 SHG. I would feel great joy seeing heads exploding after reading down a list saying, "Gretzky, Messier, Yzerman, Mario ... ... ... Rat?!?!?!"

 

[yada]

Marchand is a lock for the hof. At worst it will take 2 years of eligibility. I dont like him but he's deserving.

 

[Dellstrom]

Crazy that he, barring a massive falloff or injuries, will be the #3 highest scoring Bruin ahead of Bergy... only for both of them to likely be jumped by Pasta in a few years.

He's been consistently excellent for us but seems insane he's approaching 1k.

 

[57special]

Only 98 players have scored 1000 points. Of those, 65 are in the Hall of Fame. 16 others are ineligible because they’re active or recently retired.

Here are the others:

Jeremy Roenick
Bernie Nicholls
Vincent Damphousse *
Rod Brind’Amour * Selke(2)
Theo Fleury 2AS(1)
Dave Taylor 2AS(1)
Keith Tkachuk 2AS(2)
Ray Whitney * 2AS(1)
Pat Verbeek *
Bobby Smith *
Doug Weight *
Alexander Mogilny * 2AS(2)
Alexei Kovalev * 2AS(1)
Patrik Elias ** 1AS(2)
Brian Bellows * 2AS(1)
Dale Hunter
Steve Larmer *
Brian Propp


Asterisks denote a Stanley Cup. After that I’ve noted personal hardware and the number of times they received it. AS means 1st and 2nd postseason all star teams, where the player is voted the best at his position. In parentheses is the number of times they received it.

As you can see, there are two clear front-runners here: Elias with his two Cups and two 1st team all star selections, and Brind’Amour’s Cup and two Selkes. After them, it’s Tkachuk and Mogilny and then a big drop to guys who aren’t likely to ever make it.

In this context, Marchand’s credentials:

Brad Marchand * 1AS(2) 2AS(2)

He doubles the personal hardware of the next-best guy on the list, and he checks the “Cup ring” box. Bear in mind this is a list of players who already have 1000 points, so this is the short-list of forward candidates other than recent retirees.

It’s also really worth noting that on this entire list, only one player (Elias, 1995) came into the league after 1991. Everyone else played in the historic high-scoring era, famously Mogilny and Nicholls scoring 70+ goals in a season which is just preposterous by today’s standards. Elias didn’t get that scoring boost, having played through the heart of the Dead Puck Era instead. And then there’s Marchand, whose career began in 2010 which was also a low scoring period.

He might have to wait a few rounds, depending on who comes eligible in a particular year. But IMO it’s a near certainty that he’s selected within a few years after he becomes eligible.

Eric Staal?

 

[tarheelhockey]

Eric Staal?

He’s technically not even retired yet, thus one of the ineligibles.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Jeremy Roenick
Bernie Nicholls
Vincent Damphousse *
Rod Brind’Amour * Selke(2)
Theo Fleury 2AS(1)
Dave Taylor 2AS(1)
Keith Tkachuk 2AS(2)
Ray Whitney * 2AS(1)
Pat Verbeek *
Bobby Smith *
Doug Weight *
Alexander Mogilny * 2AS(2)
Alexei Kovalev * 2AS(1)
Patrik Elias ** 1AS(2)
Brian Bellows * 2AS(1)
Dale Hunter
Steve Larmer *
Brian Propp

What jumps out to me is how much the Hall of Fame seems to prioritize players who contributed significantly to a single franchise.

As I showed in this post, almost every player who's ever scored 1,000+ points for a single franchise is (or likely will be) in the Hall.

For the names on this list - it really stands out that most of these players jumped around a lot. (So did Pierre Turgeon, who had to wait many years despite scoring 1,300+ points). Of the 18 players you listed, just four of them spent all (or almost all) of their career with a single franchise - Elias, Larmer, Propp, and Taylor.

On the assumption that Elias gets into the Hall, that leaves us with three players. Marchand is likely going to match the career totals for Larmer, Propp, and Taylor - playing in a lower scoring era. He won a Stanley Cup (Propp and Taylor didn't). He has four years in the top ten in Hart voting (more than these three players combined). He was a first-team year-end all-star twice (none of these three did that, even once). And he was a top ten scorer four times (matching these other three players combined).

My educated guess is, assuming Marchand reaches 1,000 points, he'll get into the Hall. The committee might make him wait several years due to his reputation, but I'd be surprised if he isn't inducted within ten years of being eligible. (Someone can call out this post in say 2040 if I'm wrong).