Bob McKenzie Final ranking

[Hinterland]

By the way, players that are risers throughout the year have a strong success rate of being better than where they were selected. Biggest fallers;

Cole Eiserman from 4 to 14
Emil Hemming from 15 to 26
Ryder Ritchie from 21 to 31
Tanner Howe from 25 to 45
Aaron Kiviharju from 23 to 52
Aatos Koivu from 60 to 83
Sebastian Soini from 56 to HM (outside the top 90)
Tomas Galvas from 53 to 82
Tomas Lavvoie from 52 to 77



As a fan, I'm hoping my team avoids the fallers because in years past they usually have dissappointed from where they get drafted
Finland was a let-down this year huh?

I guess you can make a case for the other ones but there's certainly nothing wrong with Hemming, Ritchie and Galvas. Ryder Ritchie is an intense, electric righty forward who was fantastic in the playoffs for Prince Albert. If anything, he should be trending upwards. Both Hemming and Galvas had success at the highest level in European pro hockey this season which is never a bad thing. Both have a very mature two way game and aren't afraid to engage physically. I guess the knock on Galvas is that he's too slight for how he wants to play and the knock on Hemming is that his WJC20 was underwhelming but that alone doesn't mean they should be a fallers in the draft.

Btw: Ritchie and Hemming were both fantastic at the Hlinka Gretzky.

 

[Kraken Jokes]

"Whatever size concerns that existed when he was believed to be under 6-feet tall no longer apply."

I found this funny.

 

[BLNY]

Please Demidov to Habs

Not unless HuGo trade up.

 

[majormajor]

"Whatever size concerns that existed when he was believed to be under 6-feet tall no longer apply."

I found this funny.

It is genuinely hilarious.

A lot of these scouts have barely seen any video of Demidov and are just spouting off nonsense.

The smallest plausible height he could have been was 5'11, and you routinely see him handle physicality well, including leveling guys himself.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

"Whatever size concerns that existed when he was believed to be under 6-feet tall no longer apply."

I found this funny.

Which player was this for?

 

[ORRFForever]

Also 5'11 at 18 isn't even that undersized.

Yup. Unless the number is fudged and scouts know it. You sometimes hear about a player being smaller than their height.

5'10" used to be the magic number / over under where scouts were happy if the player was north of that. Now teams want 6'0" - perhaps there are already too many small forwards in the NHL.

 

[ORRFForever]

After several years of scrolling, I was finally able to locate the rankings on TSN's article specifically revealing the rankings.

Bob McKenzie's Final NHL Draft Ranking: Many attractive and diverse options after Macklin Celebrini | TSN

Ha, ha. Me, too. After a while, my "Down" button stopped working.

 

[ORRFForever]

I was reading that Iginla didnt have greatest interviews.

How hard can it be to have a good interview? Wear your best suit and be enthusiastic.

 

[Kraken Jokes]

Which player was this for?

Demidov. Leading up to the combine everyone thought he was 5'11" which is a concern, but now that they know he's 6', no concerns whatsoever.

It's just amazing to me how much difference an inch makes.

 

[ORRFForever]

It's just amazing to me how much difference an inch makes.

Even worse with goalies.

 

[SmytheKing]

Demidov. Leading up to the combine everyone thought he was 5'11" which is a concern, but know that they know he's 6', no concerns whatsoever.

It's just amazing to me how much difference an inch makes.

Had an ex tell me the same thing.

 

[Kraken Jokes]

Had an ex tell me the same thing.

Don't worry, I thought of that immediately after typing it.

 

[biturbo19]

“His hockey sense and skills are better than any forward [in the draft] with the exception of [Celebrini and Demidov],” said a scout.

Okay... so the only reason you're ranking Catton at 10-18 scouts is .. because of the size? So we still haven't learned from Benson, DeBrincat, Point for example.. All undersized players who are extremely talented and underdrafted. Also 5'11 174 at 18 isn't even that undersized.

It's really not that simple. If anything, i think the NHL has actually gotten much much better in recent years, in identifying the "value" of undersized skill players. You see them creeping up further and further in the draft every year, when they're clearly worth it. They've also largely avoided most of the small skilled busts in the Top-10 range. The range where the bulk of these "fallers" end up though...there's a laundry list of guys who just don't make it, or end up bouncing around because they never become a "core piece" that teams want to hang onto and build around.

And the main the problem still remains. When these "small skilled players" can't hack it at Center and end up somewhere in the middle range of "potential outcomes"...the middle 68% of their projection distribution...ie Not a Bust but Not a Star...they end up being ~30-50pts small skilled wingers. Which are undeniably the least valuable commodity in the NHL per point. Even when they hit that 95% range, it's more like 50-65Pts range. If they're not adding significant value somewhere else, they're dime a dozen and "steals" of that profile can be found every year in trade, in free agency, and all over once again in the draft.


Even when they pan out pretty darn well on the statsheet...You generally can't trade a small 50pt offensive winger straight across for a solid defensively robust Top-4D, and certainly not for a Top-6 Center. You often can't even find the "value" to deal them for a solid 3rd line Matchup Center with size and grit.


Every year this happens. Fans fall in love with the super productive highly skilled little forward (or powerplay offensive defenceman). Because look at them numbers!!! Woooooooooo.


But it's all about Armchair GMs "swinging for the fences" hoping for a 99% result from that pick. When the 75% result is less valuable than the 50% result from other more "conventionally coveted" types like a big shutdown D or Power Forward or "big two way center". Which is a lot easier to do when your job isn't on the line and you don't actually have to build a functional team around it.

But there's a reason that there are always huge "mistakes" on UFAs who are big, physical, defensively responsible, etc. And there are always huge "steals" on guys who are just small, skilled wingers who can play a complementary role and add some skill to an otherwise more complete and well-rounded group. Teams need more than just a collection of munchkin wingers to win, and the majority of GMs running teams tend to understand this.

No, because those are not really a consensus/average. They are stand alone lists. Bob's is not.

Every year this comes up again and again. People misunderstand completely. Everything is judged against Bob's list as the "gold standard". And rightfully so, in terms of best guesstimating roughly where a prospect is likely to go in the top couple rounds of the draft. Because...well...he gets his "list" by surveying a bunch of NHL scouts and averaging it all out for a "consensus".

But it is in absolutely no way a projection of "who will be best" in 5 or 10 years. It's an amalgamate of what a dozen or whatever scouts have as their list of who will be best.

The other lists, including Craig Button's that sends everyone off the deep end every single year, are intended to be a "draft list" which is a completely different type of document.

Draft List.
Consensus List.
Mock Draft.


These are three completely separate things. Even a prospect being say, "5th on Bob's list" which is the best consensus we get, doesn't remotely mean that the 5th prospect is going to be a Habitant. That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works.

Yup. Unless the number is fudged and scouts know it.

5'10" used to be the magic number / over under where scouts were happy if the player was north of that.

The number was fudged and the scouts know it.

He's 5'10" and one quarter portion.

Which does indeed put him into jeopardy as it's generally been more like 5'11" that is the "magic number" or at least close enough. 5'10" has always been very iffy. Under 5'10" is major danger zone and they'd better be darn special.

 

[Castle8130]

I guess you can make a case for the other ones but there's certainly nothing wrong with Hemming, Ritchie and Galvas. Ryder Ritchie is an intense, electric righty forward who was fantastic in the playoffs for Prince Albert. If anything, he should be trending upwards. Both Hemming and Galvas had success at the highest level in European pro hockey this season which is never a bad thing. Both have a very mature two way game and aren't afraid to engage physically. I guess the knock on Galvas is that he's too slight for how he wants to play and the knock on Hemming is that his WJC20 was underwhelming but that alone doesn't mean they should be a fallers in the draft.

Btw: Ritchie and Hemming were both fantastic at the Hlinka Gretzky.

This is my guess for why scouts lowered them

Hemming: At the end of the season and at the U18s he lacked compete and pace. He showed off his beautiful shot, but most of the games you hardly notice him. Kind of like Eduard Sale last year.

Ritchie: Undersized forward that didn’t have great production. From what ive heard from quoted scouts is he projects more of a small 3rd line player.

Galvas: Size. You have to be pretty exceptional with his stature and I dont think scouts see him as that

 

[BillDineen]

Demidov. Leading up to the combine everyone thought he was 5'11" which is a concern, but know that they know he's 6', no concerns whatsoever.

It's just amazing to me how much difference an inch makes.

That's what she said

 

[Half Clapper]

This is my guess for why scouts lowered them

Hemming: At the end of the season and at the U18s he lacked compete and pace. He showed off his beautiful shot, but most of the games you hardly notice him. Kind of like Eduard Sale last year.

Ritchie: Undersized forward that didn’t have great production. From what ive heard from quoted scouts is he projects more of a small 3rd line player.

Galvas: Size. You have to be pretty exceptional with his stature and I dont think scouts see him as that

Ritchie looks like a real solid prospect. Love this kids compete. Had a good playoff against the 2nd best team in the WHL.

 

[spfan]

Pretending his rankings ended up the exact draft order, the teams picking in the first 3 rounds would end up with:

SJ - Celebrini, Eiserman, Elick, Sahlin Wallenius, Gill, Boilard

Chicago - Demidov, Greentree, Surin, Shuravin, Marques, Misa

Ducks - Levshunov, Ritchie, Artamonov, Mustard, Ziemer, Kos, He

CBJ - Silayev, Yegorov, Fisher

Habs - Lindstrom, Hemming, Battaglia, Wetsch, Gardner

Utah - Dickinson, Pulkkinen, Skahan, Plante, George, Nabokov, Ruohonen

Sens- Buium, Masse

Seattle - Parekh, Pettersson, Colin Ralph, Villeneuve, Zether

Calgary - Helenius, Vanacker, Freij, Marrelli, Vinni, Roberts

NJ - Iginla, Vaisanan, Becher

Buffalo - Sennecke, Stiga, Pikkarainen

Philly - Catton, O'Reilly, Letourneau, Kleber, Lavoie

Minnesota - Yakemchuk, Howe

Detroit - Connelly, Hutson, Fernstrom

STL - Jiricek, Mews, Muggli, Smith, Mateiko

Caps - Brandsegg-Nygard, Kiviharju, Galvas, Koiv, ,Romani

VGK - Luchanko

NYI - Solberg, Danford, Brunicke

LA - Chernyshov

Nashville - Boisvert, Eliasson, Bednarik, Procyszyn, Kol

Leafs - Beaudoin

Avs - Hage

Bruins - Parascak

Canes - Emery, Jecho, Bernier

Dallas - Badinka

NYR - Basha

Oilers - Berglund

Pens - Eriksson, Miettinen

Canucks - Kempf

Jets - Gridin

Florida - Saarinen

Definitely some hauls by Chicago, SJ, Utah, Philly, Ducks, Calgary

 

[Haagen Dazs]

In depth breakdown of the top 10 and goes into depth about Berkly Catton.

Podcast – Welcome To Your Karlsson Years

Posts about Podcast written by Luke P.

welcometoyourkarlssonyears.com

 

[JPeeper]

Will be interesting to see where Sennecke and Iginla are in this list. I was reading that Iginla didnt have greatest interviews.

If it's from the article I saw and am thinking of, it was Yakemchuck who didn't interview well, not Iginla.

Unless you can provide a source than said Iggy interviewed poorly.

 

[Galaxydoggystyle]

Surprised Iginla is at 10 on bobs list.

 

[DollardStLaurent]

I think the Michkov situation has increased Demidov's rankings...

Gee, I hope Demidov's father doesn't prematurely pass away.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Pretending his rankings ended up the exact draft order, the teams picking in the first 3 rounds would end up with:

Minnesota - Yakemchuk, Howe

Acceptable.

 

[vildurson]

If it's from the article I saw and am thinking of, it was Yakemchuck who didn't interview well, not Iginla.

Unless you can provide a source than said Iggy interviewed poorly.

Might be Yakemchuck actually that i mixed names. I think it was something from Athletic from Combine, can'r remember exactly anymore, midsummer parties did their number on me.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Surprised Iginla is at 10 on bobs list.

Yeah I thought he'd be a bit higher

 

[CaptainShark]

Always fun poking holes in this. An annual tradition. Still the best mock draft around.

For one, the CHL crop is overrated outside the big names. Much mid-ness with depth upside at best. The defense prospects are very good, but the forwards not as much. Their stats are gaudy as usual but it’s easy to light up the CHL. Probably part of the reason top Canadian kids are going the BCHL/USHL/NCAA route — Boisvert, Hage, Pridham, Letourneau, etc etc. (Pridham is very good, BTW. I hope the Rangers draft him).

Speaking of which, I know Bob’s pressed for time and could only write/scout so much, but the USHL and BCHL crops are worth mentioning. I’d lean towards them in R2-R4 over CHL kids who will just get released two years from now anyway. Lahey, Ashton, McGinnis, Sawyer, and Milburn are getting drafted, but I say higher than 5-7. Heise is good too but he probably goes later. Swanson and Osburn are two of my favorites.

That one scout’s comments on Russia were a joke. Asking ownership permission because of a KHL contract? Maybe Bob should have struck that quote from record considering Michkov just signed his ELC a year after the Canadian media crushed him for having a KHL deal. As for that scout, tell me you were born in the 1950’s without telling me you were born in the 1950’s. I bet that scout has Paul Henderson’s used socks encased on his mantle with a portrait of Harold Ballard above it. Get with the times.

No Siryatsky? No Mikhaylov? Avramov is Battaglia on steroids but with physicality. No talk of the outstanding Russian goalie crop with Zarubin, Moysevich, Nabokov, etc? This Russian crop is strong — two top-5 picks and Surin, Artamonov, and Shuravin all R1 quality. Guys outside the top 100 like Frolov, Pautov, Krutov would destroy the CHL.

And I disagree that Sweden’s group is weak. Eriksson, Pettersson, LSW, Freij, and Fernstrom are all mid-to-late R1 candidates. Eriksson was better in the Allsvenskan playoffs than Nygard. Zether, Traff, Sjodin, Berglund, Eliasson, Haara, Zetterberg, and Viggo Gustaffson are all solid R2 options. You also have strong goalie pool in Gidlof, Nyman, Stierngranat, Lunberg, and Carlsson. Plenty of sleepers in W. Samuelsson, Bodin, and Hesselvall, But I guess if you don’t actively scout Sweden except for the WJC, coming to that conclusion makes total sense.

It isn’t a mock and Bob scouted no one, it’s based on a survey of 10 NHL scouts.