Blues/Wild Playoff series discussion

[Brian39]

Is Witkowski really worse than Santini? Probably not much between them and Santini has played with our group before I suppose. If Leddy and Scandella return, I feel fine sheltering Santini but if we're without all 3, it's not going to make for pleasant viewing.

I have watched zero minutes of their AHL play this season, so I can't comment on how they've actually played.

But Witkowski failed to make the cut for Detroit Red Wings this year. He's absolutely not an NHL caliber D man, so I don't think it is a reach to think Santini (another non-NHL caliber D man) is a better option.

 

[Brian39]

I don't have much confidence that we can win this series if we're missing all of Scandella, Leddy and Bortz. The left side of the D group was already our biggest roster hole and losing 66% of it is a massive hit. Defending in general is our biggest shortcoming as a team and losing two of our (at absolute worst) 4 best defending D men is a massive hit.

Scandella and Bortz are the team's two most frequent penalty killers. Without them, we are now down to 3 D men who can competently kill penalties at the NHL level (Faulk, Parayko, Mikkola). In the past 2 years, the Blues have gotten less than 40 combined PK minutes out of Krug, Rosen, Santini, and Perunovich. I don't like Leddy as a penalty killer, but he would at least be a better 4th option right now than any of those 4. I don't know the answer on the PK. PK minutes are too strenuous to make Parayko/Faulk both stay out the entire 2 minutes. I think you have to split them up because a pairing consisting of any 2 of Krug, Mikkola, Rosen, Santini, and Perunovich is a pure nightmare as a Blues fan. Even assuming we get a better showing from Mikkola, I can't come up with 2 PK units that make me confident. Our PK edge is gone and we are in survival mode.

Faulk, Parayko and Krug all need to shoulder a massive load.

If I were Berube, I'd get Faulk off the PP and tell Krug he's staying out all 2 minutes of every powerplay unless the Wild have several clears, force him to skate a ton and he needs Faulk to grab the last 20-30 seconds. We need Parayko and Faulk both playing 25+ minutes a night at even strength and on the PK. If we're going to win this series with only 3 legit NHL D men, PPs need to be used as a chance for Faulk and Parayko to rest and get ready to munch minutes. Krug used to frequently double up on both PP units in Boston. He's paid to be an elite PP QB and now is the time to deploy him like one so that Faulk/Parayko can try to keep Santini off the ice as much as possible at even strength.

We can maybe tread water without Scandella/Leddy/Bortz for a game or two. Luckily we have last change for the next 2 and can pair-match a bit more effectively. Engage in some extra post-whistle scrums in the offensive zone to increase the time between whistles and let Krug/Faulk/Parayko get an extra breath. We can win this series if it is just a game or two, but we are in big, big trouble if they are all out longer than that.

 

[BlueDream]

Berube’s comments on Scandella don’t sound promising. It sounds more like he’s skating just to try to keep active rather than being close to being able to play. I’m not sure what happened there, if he had a setback or something, because it’s a different tone from before the series began.

He just said now that Bortuzzo isn’t “too hurt” and sounds like he may have escaped a bad injury. I still wouldn’t expect him to play tomorrow but that sounds more hopeful that he may not miss a lot of time.

Not much news on Leddy.

As has been stated, we need one or two of these guys back very soon.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

I don't have much confidence that we can win this series if we're missing all of Scandella, Leddy and Bortz. The left side of the D group was already our biggest roster hole and losing 66% of it is a massive hit. Defending in general is our biggest shortcoming as a team and losing two of our (at absolute worst) 4 best defending D men is a massive hit.

Scandella and Bortz are the team's two most frequent penalty killers. Without them, we are now down to 3 D men who can competently kill penalties at the NHL level (Faulk, Parayko, Mikkola). In the past 2 years, the Blues have gotten less than 40 combined PK minutes out of Krug, Rosen, Santini, and Perunovich. I don't like Leddy as a penalty killer, but he would at least be a better 4th option right now than any of those 4. I don't know the answer on the PK. PK minutes are too strenuous to make Parayko/Faulk both stay out the entire 2 minutes. I think you have to split them up because a pairing consisting of any 2 of Krug, Mikkola, Rosen, Santini, and Perunovich is a pure nightmare as a Blues fan. Even assuming we get a better showing from Mikkola, I can't come up with 2 PK units that make me confident. Our PK edge is gone and we are in survival mode.

Faulk, Parayko and Krug all need to shoulder a massive load.

If I were Berube, I'd get Faulk off the PP and tell Krug he's staying out all 2 minutes of every powerplay unless the Wild have several clears, force him to skate a ton and he needs Faulk to grab the last 20-30 seconds. We need Parayko and Faulk both playing 25+ minutes a night at even strength and on the PK. If we're going to win this series with only 3 legit NHL D men, PPs need to be used as a chance for Faulk and Parayko to rest and get ready to munch minutes. Krug used to frequently double up on both PP units in Boston. He's paid to be an elite PP QB and now is the time to deploy him like one so that Faulk/Parayko can try to keep Santini off the ice as much as possible at even strength.

We can maybe tread water without Scandella/Leddy/Bortz for a game or two. Luckily we have last change for the next 2 and can pair-match a bit more effectively. Engage in some extra post-whistle scrums in the offensive zone to increase the time between whistles and let Krug/Faulk/Parayko get an extra breath. We can win this series if it is just a game or two, but we are in big, big trouble if they are all out longer than that.

I have the same concerns

Winning the Cup entails lots of things going your way, to include staying healthy. Some excellent regular season teams succumb to injuries in the playoffs and don't advance. This might be the case for the Blues this year. IMO we either count on our scoring depth to carry us or we start wearing down their D corps and even things up. The later is the 2019 Blues identity. The 2022 Blues identity is scoring depth. Ok, so lets see it. Calling top 9 guys...get going.

 

[mk80]

This comment on Bortuzzo is somewhat encouraging that he seems to have escaped the worst possible outcomes. I would still expect him to be out tomorrow barring a miracle. But maybe (god willing) game 4 and on with a full mask.

 

[JR1]

I don't have much confidence that we can win this series if we're missing all of Scandella, Leddy and Bortz. The left side of the D group was already our biggest roster hole and losing 66% of it is a massive hit. Defending in general is our biggest shortcoming as a team and losing two of our (at absolute worst) 4 best defending D men is a massive hit.

Scandella and Bortz are the team's two most frequent penalty killers. Without them, we are now down to 3 D men who can competently kill penalties at the NHL level (Faulk, Parayko, Mikkola). In the past 2 years, the Blues have gotten less than 40 combined PK minutes out of Krug, Rosen, Santini, and Perunovich. I don't like Leddy as a penalty killer, but he would at least be a better 4th option right now than any of those 4. I don't know the answer on the PK. PK minutes are too strenuous to make Parayko/Faulk both stay out the entire 2 minutes. I think you have to split them up because a pairing consisting of any 2 of Krug, Mikkola, Rosen, Santini, and Perunovich is a pure nightmare as a Blues fan. Even assuming we get a better showing from Mikkola, I can't come up with 2 PK units that make me confident. Our PK edge is gone and we are in survival mode.

Faulk, Parayko and Krug all need to shoulder a massive load.

If I were Berube, I'd get Faulk off the PP and tell Krug he's staying out all 2 minutes of every powerplay unless the Wild have several clears, force him to skate a ton and he needs Faulk to grab the last 20-30 seconds. We need Parayko and Faulk both playing 25+ minutes a night at even strength and on the PK. If we're going to win this series with only 3 legit NHL D men, PPs need to be used as a chance for Faulk and Parayko to rest and get ready to munch minutes. Krug used to frequently double up on both PP units in Boston. He's paid to be an elite PP QB and now is the time to deploy him like one so that Faulk/Parayko can try to keep Santini off the ice as much as possible at even strength.

We can maybe tread water without Scandella/Leddy/Bortz for a game or two. Luckily we have last change for the next 2 and can pair-match a bit more effectively. Engage in some extra post-whistle scrums in the offensive zone to increase the time between whistles and let Krug/Faulk/Parayko get an extra breath. We can win this series if it is just a game or two, but we are in big, big trouble if they are all out longer than that.

I agree with your assessment and have been thinking about it today. I doubt that we see Leddy or Scandella for the remainder of the series. Those are the two biggest losses,especially since they are both lefties. Rosen was horrendous in the defensive zone on Wednesday night. Mikkola was somewhat better and definitely more physical. He just has a tough time handling the puck. Faulk and Parayko will eventually falter playing 25+ minutes.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Depressed Jets fan on your bandwagon again
You got this!!!

 

[HighNote]

Preview of game 3:

 

[stl76]

Radio interview w/ Berube from earlier today:

Blues Head Coach, Craig Berube on the status of the Blues’ defensemen – 101 ESPN

Blues Head Coach, Craig Berube talks about the status of the defense Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

www.101espn.com

Not a ton a new information. My take away was there is a legit chance Santini plays game 3 (yikes).

 

[Stealth JD]

Does Husso have the net the entire series regardless of the outcome in one particular game, or do you think Chief would consider going to Binnington if the Blues fell behind in the series or if Husso got lit up again?

I'm of the opinion that you need to find out what you have with Husso, and see how he reacts to adversity. If he gets blown up in game 3, I'd go back to him in Game 4. And if the same happened in game 4, I'd probably give him a shot in game 5 as well. I think the Blues know what they have in Binnington and they need to find out what they have in Husso. Maybe back-against-the-wall he's got an inner Patrick Roy lurking. Maybe he is pissed about his game two performance that he pitches a shut out the rest of the way. Regardless, the only way I go to Binnington is in relief of injury (or blowout) and want to see what Husso's made of before he walks to UFA.

 

[Brian39]

Does Husso have the net the entire series regardless of the outcome in one particular game, or do you think Chief would consider going to Binnington if the Blues fell behind in the series or if Husso got lit up again?

I'm of the opinion that you need to find out what you have with Husso, and see how he reacts to adversity. If he gets blown up in game 3, I'd go back to him in Game 4. And if the same happened in game 4, I'd probably give him a shot in game 5 as well. I think the Blues know what they have in Binnington and they need to find out what they have in Husso. Maybe back-against-the-wall he's got an inner Patrick Roy lurking. Maybe he is pissed about his game two performance that he pitches a shut out the rest of the way. Regardless, the only way I go to Binnington is in relief of injury (or blowout) and want to see what Husso's made of before he walks to UFA.

We should absolutely not be willing to throw away a series just to see what we have with Husso. If he gives the team 2-3 straight blow ups to put our backs against the wall, he shouldn't be in the net. The playoffs are about winning today, not seeing what you have in a guy who has been in your system for 8 years.

I'm not overly concerned about Husso. He wasn't good in game 2, but I don't think he was quite as bad as his brutal SV% suggests. Goal #2 was poor rebound control on a shot he should have gloved and the offside-overturned goal #6 was a terrible decision to go paddle down. But goals #1, #3, #4, and #5 were all grade A chances that go in the large majority of the time. Stopping any of those would have been the 2nd best save of the night by either goalie. Husso on his A game probably stops either the 1st or 4th goal, but is very unlikely to stop both. Both of them were far from bad goals though. He didn't have his A game, but he wasn't the disaster that an .815 (with another called back) suggests. He needs to be better and I think he will. He should absolutely be in net tonight.

But if he has another outing like that tonight, then you have to start considering Binner. And you absolutely have to go to Binner if you go to Husso in game 4 and he gets blown up again. Husso shouldn't lose the net over one game, but that doesn't mean that he should keep the net even if he is bad over and over.

 

[Allens Five Hole]

Faulk, Parayko and Krug all need to shoulder a massive load.

If I were Berube, I'd get Faulk off the PP and tell Krug he's staying out all 2 minutes of every powerplay unless the Wild have several clears, force him to skate a ton and he needs Faulk to grab the last 20-30 seconds. We need Parayko and Faulk both playing 25+ minutes a night at even strength and on the PK. If we're going to win this series with only 3 legit NHL D men, PPs need to be used as a chance for Faulk and Parayko to rest and get ready to munch minutes. Krug used to frequently double up on both PP units in Boston. He's paid to be an elite PP QB and now is the time to deploy him like one so that Faulk/Parayko can try to keep Santini off the ice as much as possible at even strength.

I wholeheartedly agree with everything you said in your post but I wanted to single out this bit and ask whether it may be even more wise to give Rosen some PP time in practice to allow him to be the 2nd PP QB for those 20-30 seconds over Faulk unless we're chasing the game.

I think we have to focus on getting the PK edge back as the number one priority and our biggest strength is the depth in our forward group. Rosen probably has the "best" attributes to at least pass the puck around, walk the blue line and let our fowards go to work. My thought process is to try and bolster your PK as much as possible by tasking Faulk/Parayko with all ES/PK minutes as you suggested and leaning heavily on the biggest strength of the roster, the forward depth, to take care of business on the PP.

 

[Brian39]

I wholeheartedly agree with everything you said in your post but I wanted to single out this bit and ask whether it may be even more wise to give Rosen some PP time in practice to allow him to be the 2nd PP QB for those 20-30 seconds over Faulk unless we're chasing the game.

Not a bad thought. My hesitation is the lack of existing chemistry, which probably won't be remedied in a couple morning skates. I don't hate it at all though.

 

[Louie the Blue]

Does Husso have the net the entire series regardless of the outcome in one particular game, or do you think Chief would consider going to Binnington if the Blues fell behind in the series or if Husso got lit up again?

I'm of the opinion that you need to find out what you have with Husso, and see how he reacts to adversity. If he gets blown up in game 3, I'd go back to him in Game 4. And if the same happened in game 4, I'd probably give him a shot in game 5 as well. I think the Blues know what they have in Binnington and they need to find out what they have in Husso. Maybe back-against-the-wall he's got an inner Patrick Roy lurking. Maybe he is pissed about his game two performance that he pitches a shut out the rest of the way. Regardless, the only way I go to Binnington is in relief of injury (or blowout) and want to see what Husso's made of before he walks to UFA.

I disagree with giving the series to Husso regardless of performance due to it being a small sample.

I’m content with moving on from Husso due to FA as I still trust Binnington to fix himself, though I’d like to keep Husso. There’s a handful of goalies who I think are special and a category of their own (Vasilevski, Bobrobvsky, Saros, Shesterkin). Husso is nothing special. He’s good to above average, but that’s it and that’s fine. Goalies are incredibly volatile.

I think the Blues could go on a deep run if the stars aligned, but Leddy AND Scandella need to be healthy for that to happen vs Colorado.

 

[Xerloris]

Does Husso have the net the entire series regardless of the outcome in one particular game, or do you think Chief would consider going to Binnington if the Blues fell behind in the series or if Husso got lit up again?

I'm of the opinion that you need to find out what you have with Husso, and see how he reacts to adversity. If he gets blown up in game 3, I'd go back to him in Game 4. And if the same happened in game 4, I'd probably give him a shot in game 5 as well. I think the Blues know what they have in Binnington and they need to find out what they have in Husso. Maybe back-against-the-wall he's got an inner Patrick Roy lurking. Maybe he is pissed about his game two performance that he pitches a shut out the rest of the way. Regardless, the only way I go to Binnington is in relief of injury (or blowout) and want to see what Husso's made of before he walks to UFA.

So you would willingly piss away an entire post season to "test" a goalie?

 

[Stealth JD]

So you would willingly piss away an entire post season to "test" a goalie?

If he has a meltdown like Ankiel in the '00 NLDS, I'd pull him, sure. But giving up 5 or 6 when under siege and facing quality attempts? I'd still likely trust Husso more than Binner. Ville would have to go shakey-Jakey to get pulled if I'm Berube.

 

[Mike Liut]

Scandella is a GTD? And Leddy Is out?

 

[BlueSeal]

We have to take control immediately and kill.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Wild in 5 or 6

 

[PocketNines]

I overreacted to the second goal last night. I said it was the worst I have ever seen. That is not true. I saw Jake Allen play in 2015, I cannot pretend that away. And the Turek goal in 2000. But those are the three, as they fully demoralized potent Blues seasons. That second goal was a competitive disgrace out of Ville Husso. It was the goal of a bum. The players knew it, we know it. We can blame the skaters for plenty and when we look back we will write this team off for disappearing embarrassingly, but the headline was we got a pee-wee performance out of a goalie coming up small.

 

[wiscrev]

You get some bounces and some go against you. Lately, we've had no puck luck at all. It is what it is. Regroup and win the next one.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

I overreacted to the second goal last night. I said it was the worst I have ever seen. That is not true. I saw Jake Allen play in 2015, I cannot pretend that away. And the Turek goal in 2000. But those are the three, as they fully demoralized potent Blues seasons. That second goal was a competitive disgrace out of Ville Husso. It was the goal of a bum. The players knew it, we know it. We can blame the skaters for plenty and when we look back we will write this team off for disappearing embarrassingly, but the headline was we got a pee-wee performance out of a goalie coming up small.

Bring in Binny

 

[Mike Liut]

You play all year and get ready for the playoffs and you lose 4 defenders in the final game (actually 2nd to last game of the year) and first 3 playoff games. 4 defenders in 5 games.

 

[MissouriMook]

I overreacted to the second goal last night. I said it was the worst I have ever seen. That is not true. I saw Jake Allen play in 2015, I cannot pretend that away. And the Turek goal in 2000. But those are the three, as they fully demoralized potent Blues seasons. That second goal was a competitive disgrace out of Ville Husso. It was the goal of a bum. The players knew it, we know it. We can blame the skaters for plenty and when we look back we will write this team off for disappearing embarrassingly, but the headline was we got a pee-wee performance out of a goalie coming up small.

 

[MissouriMook]

Went to visit friends in a club level suite after the game last night and apparently the suite next to them were Wild fans. As we were leaving, the attendant brought out a couple of leftover cupcakes with red and green sprinkles and offered them to us. I obliged, and in so doing devoured the Wild and, along with it, their chances for this series.

Seriously, though, there were so many similarities between Games 2 and 3. We had early momentum but lost it, they were able to get clean and semi-clean looks from the slot while we have no one even trying to get to the front of the net to clean up Fleury's rebounds. That last part is particularly concerning given Chief's comments after Game 2 about needing to get to the front of the net. They clearly didn't listen or just don't have the desire to do so.

Right now, I feel like we have the more talented roster top to bottom when healthy, but we're not healthy, all of our injury issues are concentrated in the same position and they are playing a great team game while we are not. For all the digs on Husso for their 2nd goal last night, I think he's been the better of the two by a slight margin because he has been facing way more dangerous chances than Fleury. Last night we had a lot of perimeter shots that resulted in dangerous rebounds, but we weren't attacking those rebounds and he had to make very few tough saves.

A lot can happen before tomorrow afternoon, but I could see this being over in 5.