Blues/Wild Playoff series discussion

[Chet Manly]

Please no work night OT with these late start times.

"Screw the central fans. Especially the kids. Who needs 'em"
-NHL.....again......

Knowing the league's IMPECCABLE record for starting games on time, more like 10et.

If I play "6 degrees of separation", TECHNICALLY, my company represents the NHL. So when I show up late/hungover for the next month, I can say "Talk to your client. It's their fault." It's prefect! How can it possibly not work?!?

 

[BlueOil]

MAF- 3 games against the Blues. 10 goals against, 3.36GAA .903 sv%
Talbot- 3 games against the Blues. 16 goals against, 5.92 GAA, .814 sv%

I get that Talbot and MAF had decent years overall, but the Blues have brutalized both of them. I am as worried about those two as I am about these two:

View attachment 538875

The GREEF line is the concern here. Not the Minnesota goaltending.

i agree the stats don't support being worried about the wild's goaltending. talbot - there is no worry ever. fleury was held out of any games against the blues while playing for minnesota this year, so the medicore stats are all from chicago. playing behind a better defense, fleury could be more difficult to solve, but hasn't historically been a difficult goalie for the blues to beat on any team he's played for. still he's got the cup winning experience and can get hot. hopefully the blues are hotter.

ultimately, hoping husso makes himself the bigger story for good reasons

 

[Chet Manly]

Blues have been ass in the playoffs since the Cup. This will last 6-games max; not in the good way. Blues better hope it becomes a special teams battle; at evens the Wild should handle business and feast on our weak defensive zone play.

I don't think it's fair to use the last 2 years as a gauge for ANYTHING

'20 - I don't even know what that was, but I still won't refer to anyone as a "'19/'20 Stanley Cup Champion"
'21 - Again, a season ravaged by the same problems from the year before, and losing arguably our best player at the time, a day before game 1 (And looking back, a still severely hurt Tank)

 

[BlueMed]

Blues have been ass in the playoffs since the Cup. This will last 6-games max; not in the good way. Blues better hope it becomes a special teams battle; at evens the Wild should handle business and feast on our weak defensive zone play.

Wow, dude. I'm not sure how you can call yourself a fan or even watch this team anymore with this level of pessimism. It's really sad actually. Honestly, I don't see how anyone could use the prior two COVID-themed seasons as a way to assess this current team. Based on the recent record between these two teams, this is one of the best possible matchups the Blues could have gotten. It's pretty clear that this is a common defense mechanism around here; lowering expectations all the way down so you can't be disappointed. That's a pretty cowardice way to follow your team and quite frankly no one really wants to hear that negativity before this special opportunity this organization has consistently provided us over the course of its history.

 

[Celtic Note]

I agree Dom is arrogant, but I believe his model makes money vs Vegas so he has at least that much credibility.

It would be cool to see St Louis break the model though.

We already broke the model in 2019!

But it’s still one of the best models out there available to the public.

If your an Athletic, member you can talk about the arrogance in the comments section.

 

[Stealth JD]

Wow, dude. I'm not sure how you can call yourself a fan or even watch this team anymore with this level of pessimism. It's really sad actually. Honestly, I don't see how anyone could use the prior two COVID-themed seasons as a way to assess this current team. Based on the recent record between these two teams, this is one of the best possible matchups the Blues could have gotten. It's pretty clear that this is a common defense mechanism around here; lowering expectations all the way down so you can't be disappointed. That's a pretty cowardice way to follow your team and quite frankly no one really wants to hear that negativity before this special opportunity this organization has consistently provided us over the course of its history.

Gtfo of here with that nonsense. I think the Blues have a great regular-season team that was always going to struggle when the intensity picked up. Their defense has fared poorly under a heavy forecheck, and if/when the whistles get swallowed (which typically happens in Rd. 2 and beyond), a large part of their advantage (special teams) will be minimized. If/when Berube’s club puts up the warm butter defense, I imagine the fans will again swing wildly from support to condemnation; and go from praising Army and Chief to questioning the roster makeup and subsequent coaching-extension.

As a fan, I’ll support the Blues win or lose and follow them whether they’re competing for a Cup or the draft lottery. But what I won’t do is blindly homer for the sake of homering. The club is exciting and fun to watch. Entertaining! But they’re not long for these playoffs in my estimation, and if calling me a coward makes you feel better about your own fandom, then go for it. I’ll be rooting for wins and hoping for a miracle; because the body of evidence they’ve presented over the past 82-games leads me to believe this is a fatally flawed playoff roster.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

Wow, dude. I'm not sure how you can call yourself a fan or even watch this team anymore with this level of pessimism. It's really sad actually. Honestly, I don't see how anyone could use the prior two COVID-themed seasons as a way to assess this current team. Based on the recent record between these two teams, this is one of the best possible matchups the Blues could have gotten. It's pretty clear that this is a common defense mechanism around here; lowering expectations all the way down so you can't be disappointed. That's a pretty cowardice way to follow your team and quite frankly no one really wants to hear that negativity before this special opportunity this organization has consistently provided us over the course of its history.

What the heck is this? Completely uncalled for response.

 

[BlueMed]

Gtfo of here with that nonsense. I think the Blues have a great regular-season team that was always going to struggle when the intensity picked up. Their defense has fared poorly under a heavy forecheck, and if/when the whistles get swallowed (which typically happens in Rd. 2 and beyond), a large part of their advantage (special teams) will be minimized. If/when Berube’s club puts up the warm butter defense, I imagine the fans will again swing wildly from support to condemnation; and go from praising Army and Chief to questioning the roster makeup and subsequent coaching-extension.

As a fan, I’ll support the Blues win or lose and follow them whether they’re competing for a Cup or the draft lottery. But what I won’t do is blindly homer for the sake of homering. The club is exciting and fun to watch. Entertaining! But they’re not long for these playoffs in my estimation, and if calling me a coward makes you feel better about your own fandom, then go for it. I’ll be rooting for wins and hoping for a miracle; because the body of evidence they’ve presented over the past 82-games leads me to believe this is a fatally flawed playoff roster.

Bro, no one wants to hear this negativity before game 1 even starts. Bringing this type of attitude isn't "supporting the team" and having optimism and excitement for a team isn't "homering." No one wants to read that, and quite frankly, anything can happen in the playoffs, so until we see what happens, fans have every reason to be as excited as they want to be.

 

[Celtic Note]

Bro, no one wants to hear this negativity before game 1 even starts. Bringing this type of attitude isn't "supporting the team" and having optimism and excitement for a team isn't "homering." No one wants to read that, and quite frankly, anything can happen in the playoffs, so until we see what happens, fans have every reason to be as excited as they want to be.

You now speak for everyone?

 

[BlueMed]

What the heck is this? Completely uncalled for response.

A lot of people here are excited about this team. It has arguably the deepest forward group in franchise history and has already broke multiple franchise records this season (point streak, goals per period, etc). Bringing a balanced perspective is one thing, but dumping on this team just to lower standards out of cowardice really spoils the atmosphere and excitement this time of the year.

Post automatically merged: May 2, 2022

You now speak for everyone?

That's common sense, dude. If you want to hold his hand during this series, go ahead. I'll be elsewhere getting pumped about game 1. Peace out.

 

[Stealth JD]

Bro, no one wants to hear this negativity before game 1 even starts. Bringing this type of attitude isn't "supporting the team" and having optimism and excitement for a team isn't "homering." No one wants to read that, and quite frankly, anything can happen in the playoffs, so until we see what happens, fans have every reason to be as excited as they want to be.

Get a grip man. Feel free to block my opinions if you're going to be triggered by them. Posting expectations of a series outcome in a pre-series chat is hardly negativity. Not every post has to be from the perspective of a Pollyanna.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

I don’t mind reading Stealth’s opinions. That could be because I share them, though. Still, that doesn’t make me want the Blues to win any less.

 

[mab894]

Bro, no one wants to hear this negativity before game 1 even starts. Bringing this type of attitude isn't "supporting the team" and having optimism and excitement for a team isn't "homering." No one wants to read that, and quite frankly, anything can happen in the playoffs, so until we see what happens, fans have every reason to be as excited as they want to be.

Eh he's entitled to his opinion. Hopefully the Blues prove him wrong!

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Blues have been ass in the playoffs since the Cup. This will last 6-games max; not in the good way. Blues better hope it becomes a special teams battle; at evens the Wild should handle business and feast on our weak defensive zone play.

You might be right. For all our fantastic scoring depth, we are always 1-2 boneheaded turnovers away from blowing a game. We also go into lulls where we are content to cruise along and let other teams gain significant momentum. Hard to see that changing in the playoffs. The “magic switch” never materialized for the Blues during these last two playoffs. Folks were counting on our Cup pedigree to be the X factor when the playoffs started. Nope.

The Wild are a far more consistent team defensively. They may not have our scoring depth, but they have weapons and seem mentally wired in to most games.

7 games…a toss up

Makes me think about Stars vs Blues in the 2019 cup run. Game #7 could have easily been won by the Stars. It’s always a game of inches, seconds, and a bit of luck.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

I have a strange feeling that the Blues come out flat in this series. Stranger things have happened with this team. I’ve been a fan since the Blues’ inception and this team has a history of coming out flat for big games. We shall see on Monday night. I hope I am wrong about it. I do know that Minnesota is going to come out flying with a big push. Can the Blues weather the storm in the first ten minutes? It’s going to take some big saves and the forwards backchecking like crazy. No one knows what will happen but the place will be on fire that’s for certain. Come on Blues prove me wrong. The Wild have a great OT record with Kaprizov but there is no 3 on 3 in the playoffs. Special teams could decide the series. GO BLUES !!!

Yep. Probably the best Wild team in some time. They will have a loud fan base adding significant energy.

If the Blues have some atrocious turn overs and/or crap goaltending early on, I think it’s lights out. Minny will get the score they need and lock it down. They will look to draw the Blues into retaliation penalties and grind us down with their PP.

Our Achilles Heel is goaltending and team mental toughness over 60 minutes of play. We can mount 5 minute surges, but then we coast for 10-15 minutes without registering shots on net. It’s crazy.

 

[Brian39]

There is nothing about Talbot's overall history or especially his wretched last 7 starts against the Blues to make anyone rational fear him. The Blues have 32 goals in those seven and only once did he hold them to as few as 3 goals. He has an .837 in those games and the Blues have abused him horribly. Fleury has also been pretty easy to defeat over his career and also recently this season. Maybe one of their goalies will suddenly be outstanding against the Blues out of the blue. This actually happened (in reverse) the last playoff series between the teams, so it's possible. In both previous playoff meetings the worse team won.

Husso has been average for awhile and I'm sure Minnesota will get their goals on him. Will they get enough to put the Blues away four times?

Blues have the edge down the middle, in faceoffs, and in both special teams. Blues just match up very well with Minnesota. It would be a real disappointment to lose to the Wild despite their point total.

Talbot doesn't worry me too much. He's been on fire lately, but his track record tells me that is a hot streak that isn't sustainable into the playoffs. However, Fleury has been a very tough 1st round out through his career.

He went .931 in the 1st round last year in a 7 game series win last year.

He was .909 in a 7 game loss vs San Jose in 2019.

He was .977 in a 4 game sweep of the Kings in 2018.

He was .933 in a 5 game series win vs Columbus in 2017.

Vegas went with Lehner in 2020 and he was hurt to start 2016. But that's 3 of 4 incredibly good 1st round performances and another decent 7 game performance. He hasn't been an easy 1st round out in almost a decade. He sported a .920 in his playoff career with Vegas. Since turning 30, he is 3rd in playoff wins and sports a .921. He bumps up to 2nd in wins. He absolutely hasn't been pretty easy to defeat.

He is prone to letting up an untimely bad goal, but he stands on his head more often than not. Acting like it would just be an out of the blue occurrence for him to play well isn't accurate.

We aren't going against Vasilevski, but there is every reason to believe that Minnesota can get good goaltending. I don't have major concerns with Husso's game, but he has just been decent lately and Binner looked lost against Colorado. I think it is very reasonable to say we have a bigger question mark in net than Minnesota.

The thing that worries me about Minnesota's goaltending is that it is a pretty solid 1-2 punch. If they start Talbot and we continue getting at him like we have this year, they can go to the NHL's active playoff wins leader who also happens to be the reigning Vezina winner. If they start with Fleury and he is off his game, they can go to a guy who has been absolutely dialed in since the trade deadline. Goaltending is wildly unpredictable in small sample sizes and they have 2 guys who are very capable of stealing a series.

 

[Joshuar56]

You now speak for everyone?

I definitely agree with him, the original post was pretty douchey.

 

[MissouriMook]

Our Achilles Heel is goaltending and team mental toughness over 60 minutes of play. We can mount 5 minute surges, but then we coast for 10-15 minutes without registering shots on net. It’s crazy.

I'm hopeful that the "mental toughness" and ability to focus and perform for 60 minutes will get dialed up now that the playoffs start. It may be wish casting to suggest that this is something that can be flipped like a switch, but we haven't really been in danger of missing the playoffs the entire season and the majority of this roster knows what it takes to succeed in the "win or go home" environment of the playoffs, especially on the road. I expect the team to come out with fire and not put themselves in a position of chasing the game or coasting regardless of the score.

I expect both teams to do a pretty good job of dialing up the effort and consistency, but to your first point, I expect that each game will be decided by virtue of which goalie blinks first. Not necessarily by giving up the first goal, but more that they start fighting the puck and sapping the confidence of the team in front of them. I don't feel like this is going to be an easy series by any stretch, but if the Blues can get to Talbot the way they have in the regular season I could see them getting Minny down early in the series, stealing home ice advantage and riding it to a 5-6 game series win. Likewise, if Husso is worn down from the late season workload or isn't quite ready for playoff hockey, I could see Minny winning the first two at home and the series getting ugly early.

 

[ScratchCatFever]

Can we just drop the f***ing puck, already? If Wild fans are creeping our board they are caking their pants at how unhinged the back and forth between the optimists and pessimists have been over the past 7 days. I'm simply ready to enjoy normal playoff hockey for the first time in 3 years.

 

[Brian39]

I hope that the end-of-year hot streak of the Buch-Thomas-Tarasenko line has convinced Minnesota that they need to focus on getting their shutdown line out there against them. The strength of this forward group is the depth and I'm fully confident that our other two scoring lines can pick up the slack if Minnesota goes all in (and is successful) shutting down that line.

My main concern in this series is containing the Kaprizov line. I want Parayko and ROR out there against Kaprizov whenever possible and that will be easier to accomplish if we can use Buch-Thomas-Tarasenko as bait for them to change up their rotation. Throw out Buch-Thomas-Tarasenko after every TV timeout and force Minnesota to pick between going best on best or matching up their shutdown line against them.

 

[PocketNines]

I hope that the end-of-year hot streak of the Buch-Thomas-Tarasenko line has convinced Minnesota that they need to focus on getting their shutdown line out there against them. The strength of this forward group is the depth and I'm fully confident that our other two scoring lines can pick up the slack if Minnesota goes all in (and is successful) shutting down that line.

My main concern in this series is containing the Kaprizov line. I want Parayko and ROR out there against Kaprizov whenever possible and that will be easier to accomplish if we can use Buch-Thomas-Tarasenko as bait for them to change up their rotation. Throw out Buch-Thomas-Tarasenko after every TV timeout and force Minnesota to pick between going best on best or matching up their shutdown line against them.

If I were Minnesota I might want GREEF against Saad-ROR-Perron and take my chances Kaprizov vs. Thomas

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

If the Kyrou-Schenn- Barbashev line gets on the scoreboard, it puts a lot of pressure on Minnesota’s game plan. That’s kind of what the Winter Classic looked like.

 

[PocketNines]

Both teams are fully confident at coming back from a multi goal deficit. This is why outside fans are especially excited to see it and why we are tense as we brace for its inevitability.

 

[Stealth JD]

If the Kyrou-Schenn- Barbashev line gets on the scoreboard, it puts a lot of pressure on Minnesota’s game plan. That’s kind of what the Winter Classic looked like.

Yep - Schenn's line will be key. If he and Kyrou are healthy, Blues should be fine....IF the whole team is are smart and efficient with zone exits. Dipsy-doodling through guys and not having a purpose with the puck will get this team beaten by a team like Minnesota. They've proven more than capable of taking advantage of turnovers and capitalizing on opponents mistakes. Their 6 defenders are a bit more reliable in their own end than the Blues'; they're less likely to cough up a puck or blow coverage. But when the Blues get support from the forwards and look to make a pass instead of a panicked 'get-it-out' mentality, they can roll teams. Both teams do that well when on their game.

Post automatically merged: May 2, 2022

Both teams are fully confident at coming back from a multi goal deficit. This is why outside fans are especially excited to see it and why we are tense as we brace for its inevitability.

incoming seven-game series with 1-0 and 2-1 finals every game.

 

[Brian39]

If I were Minnesota I might want GREEF against Saad-ROR-Perron and take my chances Kaprizov vs. Thomas

Out of curiosity, why would you want to put the GREEF line out against Saad-ROR-Perron? That is a our lowest scoring line at 5 on 5 by a wide margin and mostly gets defensive assignments. Throwing out the GREEF line against them would likely mean starting them in the O Zone a ton while asking the other lines to check out higher scoring lines.

If they want to go top-line on top-line, my guess would be that the GREEF line would get tasked with making sure Barbie/Schenn/Kyrou don't break the game open.