Green = Significant advantage in this category
Blue = Nearly even in this category
Red = Significant disadvantage in this category
| GF | GA | PP% | PK% | FOW% | GF/GA P1 | GF/GA P2 | GF/GA P3 | Min. PIMS |
| Blues | 3rd | 11th | 2nd | 5th | 14th | +6 | +51 | +17 | 4th |
| Wild | 5th | 16th | 18th | 25th | 27th | +17 | +20 | +11 | 25th |
I like our chances, but this isn't an easy series.
Both teams are hot, with crazy good records down the stretch. The Blues have had a bit of a hiccup in the last couple games, but one could view these games as a humbling reminder that we're not invincible. We do not want to be too cocky heading into the playoffs, so these couple of losses may be a good thing in that regard. Another factor to keep in mind is that it's straight down to business for the Blues because they start game 1 on the road. This is something this team has experience with, having started 3 of 4 series in the Cup run on the road. They won both opening road games against the Jets and split them with the Sharks/Bruins. They've proven they can take at least a game on the road before coming back home which is huge for the team without home ice advantage. The Wild, however, are very strong at home. They're 31-8-2 at home, but their record on the road is not so hot comparatively (22-14-5). Losing a game at home would be very bad for them.
Another important thing to note before I get into the bulk of the stats here is Minnesota's overtime record. They have
16 overtime wins, 5 of which are in the shootout. So they're 11-3 in 3 on 3 overtime. Why is this important? Because there is no 3 on 3 overtime or shootouts in the playoffs (obviously). That's 32 points accumulated over the regular season from things that don't happen in the playoffs. To put it in perspective, the Blues have earned only 10 points in overtime/shootouts. If you remove 3 on 3 and shootouts, the Blues would sit at 86 points, the Wild 74. That's a 16 point swing. The Wild are exceptional in 3 on 3, and it's not particularly surprising why. They have speedy, elusive scoring threats that have a ton more space to worth with. Guys like Kaprizov, Zuccarello, Fiala, etc., they're playstyle is perfect for 3 on 3. They will not be afforded this luxury in the playoffs.
Now to the main stats. The Blues had 1 more goal for than the Wild, so that's a wash. The Wild gave up 11 more goals...whatever. The big differences come from the special teams. The Blues have the 2nd best powerplay in the league, and the Wild have the 6th worst PK. That's gonna be scary for the Wild. On top of this, Foligno might be out, who logs a lot of minutes on the PK. And on top of
that, the Wild are the 8th most penalized team in the league as far as minor penalties go (whereas the Blues are the 4th least penalized). Now, it is stupid, but there's going to be less penalties called in the playoffs, so that's something to keep in mind. But in the end, I am not opposed to making this series a special teams battle, because we clearly have the upper hand there.
Then there's faceoffs. The Wild simply aren't great here. The Blues are middle of the pack, but when you have a guy like O'Reilly taking important draws against guys that are well below 50% on the draw, it's going to be a significant factor. The Wild player with the most faceoffs taken is Eriksson Ek, who is at 47.6%. The 2nd most is Hartman at 44.8%, then Gaudreau who's exactly 50%. Even guys like Thomas and Schenn who are just below 50% are still better than 2 of those guys. I know these numbers can vary quite a bit game to game, but it's worth noting.
One more significant advantage for the Blues is the 2nd period. What's crazy is that the Wild's best period is technically the 2nd period, as they are a +20. But that's
31 less than the Blues in the 2nd (lol). I don't know if I've ever seen a more dominant period by a team. I'm not 100% sure why we're so incredible in the 2nd period, but we are. The long change has to be a factor, though, and that's extra important when you take into account that the 1st overtime has the long change as well (and it's not 3 on 3). The Wild are fairly consistent through all 3 periods though, as there's not much difference between their goal differentials in each. So you can't
actually say that they have a best period, although they literally do statistically. They're just too close.
Now, onto individual players/matchups. The Wild clearly have the best player in this series in Kaprizov. The best player for the Blues...depends on the night. It can be any one of Tarasenko, O'Reilly, Parayko, Husso, Thomas, Kyrou (although not lately), Schenn, Perron, Faulk, or Buchnevich. And that's what is so dangerous about the Blues. You can't simply shutdown one or two guys, or even a whole line, because there's 2 other lines that can burn you just as easily. My guess is that O'Reilly's line will get Kaprizov/Zuccarello duties, with Parayko glued to Kaprizov in the defensive zone when possible. Not having home ice could cause some issues with not getting the last change, but hopefully the edge the Blues have in faceoffs can mitigate some of that. We'll see how this "GREEF" line looks, but even if they successfully shut down a line like the Thomas line (unlikely), you've still got a line like Barbashev-Schenn-Kyrou or the O'Reilly line to worry about. And we'll see if Foligno is healthy, because he's a big cog in that line.
As far as goaltending goes, who the hell knows what will happen. Sure, we've had Talbot's number, and Fleury hasn't been special against us either, but Husso hasn't had any playoff experience at all and Binnington has been abysmal this year. There's simply no predicting how these guys will play. If I had to guess, I expect the goaltending to be fairly even throughout the series. I think this could be a fairly high scoring series, so I think the battle between the goalies might be more of a "who gives up less goals" as opposed to "who makes more saves," if you get what I mean.
Keys to the series for each team:
Blues: Take advantage of special teams. Pile it on in the 2nd period and don't sit back too hard in the 3rd if you have a lead, this Minnesota team can score. Start games on time, don't get yourself into a hole early in games. Put doubt into their heads early in Minnesota. I'm sure the Wild know how poorly they've been against us in recent years, it would be a huge blow to their confidence if they lose game 1 at home. The Blues have more experience, show it. BE MORE PHYSICAL. The Wild's top players are
small. Kaprizov, Zuccarello, Fiala, Spurgeon...they're tiny compared to some of our guys. Use your size to your advantage and take away any time and space you can from them. Hit them every chance you get, they're going to feel it over the course of a long series more than we will. Shut down their top line the best you can and let your depth do the work. Tighten it up defensively. I know we're no longer a fantastic defensive team, but it's time to "put on the work boots" and defend as a team. We don't have to be as good as we were in 2019 in this category, just be good enough so that your offense can get to work.
Players to watch: O'Reilly, Tarasenko, Faulk
Wild: Wipe the slate clean, forget the past.
Keep it 5 on 5. Weather the storm that is the 2nd period. Don't sit back on any lead, this Blues team can score in bunches. Stop the Blues' passing (if you can). If you can disrupt their breakouts in the defensive zone and their puck movement in the offensive zone, you're in good shape. Take advantage of the Blues bottom 3 defenseman. Your top guys need to be your top guys. You have strong depth, but not on the same level as the Blues. Kaprizov needs to be a gamebreaker and your top line needs to produce. You can't afford to have this line not contributing. Put the series away EARLY. This Blues team has a lot of playoff experience, and they've been scary good late in series. Don't let this get to a game 6 or 7.
Player to watch: Kaprizov, Boldy, Spurgeon
My series prediction: Blues in 6.
