Can someone make a cogent argument as to why the Blues would be benefitted more from acquiring MT this offseason versus for free next offseason?
To preface, I'm not in favor of paying a ton for him in a trade this summer. With that said, there are a variety of advantages to getting him this summer.
1: We are currently in a Cup window. The West got worse this summer. The Avs are still the class of the Conference, but they got worse. Even if you believe that they can find a way to keep Kadri and/or acquire rental(s) to replace the offense that left, there is a much larger question mark in net than they had last year. Kuemper was (at worst) adequate for them and he was damn good for long stretches. He had a .921 over 193 starts in the 4 years before getting to Colorado and his worst season SV% saw him still post a .907. He has been replaced with a guy with a career .908, but who has seen his SV% drop by half a percentage point in every year of his career so far. Posting a .918 to .914 to .910 to .905 to .898 as a backup is a pretty troubling trend and he's never started more than 32 games in a season. He's their guy now and that is objectively a step back until he proves otherwise. Colorado is banking that they can win with simply adequate goaltending and they put their chips on a guy who hasn't yet proven that he can be adequate in even a tandem role. They got better than adequate goaltending most the year last season and Georgiev is a much riskier bet to be adequate in a playoff run. Minnesota got noticeably worse. Calgary got noticeably worse. I like Edmonton's summer, but I'm not a big Campbell believer and they don't look to scary to me. I think Vegas is a playoff team again this year, but they don't appear to be a super team. This was a wide open Conference last year and the door opened wider. This is a great year to go for it and trying to make the team better is absolutely a good goal.
Depending on what you give up, Tkachuk can absolutely make this team better in 2022/23 and help us try to win a Cup in a year that we should be trying to win the Cup.
2: Tkachuk is pretty damn good defensively. LD was the clearest
positional weakness of the team last year, but team defense was an issue well beyond just the left D men. Adding a scoring forward who can also defend and drive possession away from our zone at an elite level absolutely addresses a direct team need. We have a top 5 scoring forward group, but they aren't at all above average defensively. And while I wouldn't call Leddy a top LD, we can't ignore that we saw very little of Leddy and Krug in the lineup together last season. They were both in the lineup for 8 regular season games and 1 playoff game last year. It is reasonable to expect a season of Leddy and Krug on the roster to be stronger than the left side we actually iced during the playoffs last year. I still wouldn't call it a position of strength, but it is reasonable to expect it to be better than what we actually got last year.
3: Getting him now eliminates
all the risk that he gets a better offer from someone else over the next 11+ months. How much risk there is of that is an unknown variable. But it is absurd to pretend that it isn't a variable. Banking that we can get him next summer absolutely might be a gamble worth taking depending on the acquisition cost now. But it is absolutely a gamble.
4: There is absolutely no guarantee that his value goes down without Johnny. Lindholm is still a pretty damn good center and Calgary still has a ton of cap space to potentially add another guy (like a Kadri) to the team to replace some of Gaudreau's lost production. Tkachuk will likely get some more ice time to try and offset some of that as well. He also might get dealt as a rental to a stacked contender and build his resume. Let's say Calgary doesn't get the package they like this summer, accept the arbitration award and trade him with 50% retained at the deadline for the best package they can get then. A Tkachuk-MacKinnon-Rantanen line could see him fall ass-backwards into a 25+ point playoff run. Even if he spends the entire season in Calgary, I'd guess that a 90 point Gaudreau-less season would at least keep his value flat and might even increase it depending on his line mates. An 80-85 point season probably doesn't decrease his value by any tangible amount if he is still putting up exceptional underlying numbers (which he has consistently done regardless of his line mates).
I'm in the camp that isn't interested in giving up a king's ransom for him now. I'm also in the camp that is only interested in signing him if he takes a pretty substantial discount. And while I really like him as a player, I'm comfortable with a future where the cost is just too great and we let another team snag him. My strategy would be to make a sub-ROR-trade value offer to Calgary that is contingent on us being able to work out an extension pre-trade.
My offer would be something along the lines of Tarasenko, Scandella, a top 10 protected 1st in 2023, and their choice of any prospect besides Neighbours/Bolduc/Hofer/Snug (Perunovich is no longer a prospect). If Tarasenko won't waive to Calgary, then the package would involve trading Tarasenko to a 3rd team and flipping those proceeds to Calgary. Calgary might have to be a middle man and retain salary on Tarasenko to facilitate that trade. But they are trying to move a $10M player more than a week after the open of free agency when teams started spending their free cap space. And they have a pretty hard deadline to get a trade value reflective of an extension unless they want to gamble on keeping him until at least 1/1/23. They have frittered away a ton of their leverage. If they want multiple high value assets, they need to eat some money. A year of Tarasenko should return a 1st rounder and maybe more if he only comes with a $3.725M cap hit. Assuming Perunovich/Mikkola/Bortz round out the 5-7 D spots in this scenario and Neighbours makes the 23 man roster, that leaves us with up to $9.8M for a Tkachuk contract. I don't really want him for more than that, so that's a great line in the sand.
Does that meet Calgary's asking price? Nope. But I don't think they are going to get any offers that meet their asking price. If they retain 50% on Tarasenko, they should be able to come away with two 1st round picks in a draft that scouts are drooling over along with a low/mid value prospect or two. More power to them if they can find a better package. I still have concerns/doubts about what adding Tkachuk does to the rest of the roster beyond 2023, so I'm not going much beyond that package if that's what it takes. Maybe I'd add a 2024 or 2025 mid-late pick to help facilitate a 3-team trade, but that's about it.
If I can land Tkachuk at sub-$10M by giving up Tarasenko, Scandella, a 1st and a non-essential prospect then I think long and hard about pulling the trigger now instead of hoping to land him at that price (or lower) next summer. That trade removes a problem contract, extracts value out of Tarasenko, and doesn't gut the prospect cupboard. We get better right now, we lock up the prime of a stud LW and we have an extra year to set up the 2023/24 cap situation. If it is Kyrou, then we can trade his 2 remaining years of RFA rights for a damn good return next summer. Maybe you can get creative and find a way to move on from Krug/Schenn/Saad and make one/two of them the cap casualty needed to make it work. Maybe it is moving on from ROR because he doesn't bounce back to his old, expected self this season. Regardless, that decision would need to be made if you signed Tkachuk as a UFA. Getting him now gives you a draft and a few weeks of offseason to work on it with the certainty that you already have Tkachuk. That is objectively better than waiting until after 7/1/23 or making those moves without certainty of landing Tkachuk.
Again, I'm not offering the moon for Tkachuk right now. But it is insane to act like there aren't multiple advantages to getting him now instead of waiting until the open of UFA next summer. Change the line combos how you like, but I'm more comfortable taking a run for the Cup in 2023 with this roster than the current roster:
Tkachuk-Thomas-Buch
Saad-ROR-Kyrou
Barby-Schenn-Neighbours
Brown-Aciari-Torpo
Walker, Leivo
Leddy-Parayko
Krug-Faulk
Mikkola-Bortz
Perunovich
Binner
Greiss