Blues Trade Proposals 2021-2022 Part 1

[bleedblue1223]

How much we can spend to ensure a quality NHL backup will depend on the decisions with Perron and Tarasenko in the offseason. If they move three quality futures to get Chychrun then they're more likely to move Tarasenko for futures at the draft. If they don't get an impact left defenseman who will be on the team next year they will still need to target one.

I haven't spent much time trying to expand the deal to add Crouse. I can see that Chychrun + Crouse = Scandella + Sundqvist. But wouldn't the Blues have to add more to Neighbors + Hofer + 1st?

100%. Crouse's recent trade comp might be Blake Coleman. Coleman might have the edge due to have 1 more really affordable season before UFA status, which was why Tampa valued him so much. Crouse is RFA status, so he'll still have team control. I wouldn't be surprised if his value was 1st+solid prospect. Chychrun+Crouse would be very expensive from an asset cost, but I'd be more willing to give up more future pieces for it than if it was just 1 of them. I don't believe we'd do a deal for both though, I'd guess Bill would do separate deals, and Tampa goes strong for him.

Edit: Maybe Sam Bennett is another comp, so potentially a bit cheaper than Coleman.

 

[PocketNines]

100%. Crouse's recent trade comp might be Blake Coleman. Coleman might have the edge due to have 1 more really affordable season before UFA status, which was why Tampa valued him so much. Crouse is RFA status, so he'll still have team control. I wouldn't be surprised if his value was 1st+solid prospect. Chychrun+Crouse would be very expensive from an asset cost, but I'd be more willing to give up more future pieces for it than if it was just 1 of them. I don't believe we'd do a deal for both though, I'd guess Bill would do separate deals, and Tampa goes strong for him.

What's your offer?

 

[bleedblue1223]

What's your offer?

If Chychrun is Neighbours+Hofer+1st, I'd strongly consider Perunovich+2nd, or something along those lines. Equivalent of 4 1sts and a 2nd, so not sure if there is more of a mid-tier prospect that Bill likes. Or maybe he values Sunny as a roster vet or a piece to flip, sort of how that Miller trade worked where Buffalo took Halak and Stewart with intention of flipping them, and Buffalo basically got a 2nd, 3rd, and some change. So that might end up being Neighbours+Hofer+Sundqvist+Scandella+1st+propect/Perunovich/2nd.

Haven't thought through it enough since I don't think it's that likely, but I do really like the idea of a new young core of Thomas/Kyrou/Chychrun/Crouse/Buchnevich/Barbashev, and then if any of the young pieces leftover break through.

My reluctance to giving up too much for Chychrun would be lessened if Crouse is added would be we are adding 2 guys that I think would solidly fit into our next core, and that extends our window, which is why I didn't want to give up too much potential ELC talent.

Edit: Maybe Bennett is a better comp, so 2 2nds instead of the 1st+?

 

[bleedblue1223]

If Anaheim lands Chychrun, I'd be very curious what that means for Lindholm. Do they move him as a rental to bring back some assets, keep him and let him walk, or try to extend him. Anaheim becoming competitive and looking like a playoff team certainly changes things. I could also see them being a team interested in Tarasenko at the draft.

 

[PocketNines]

If Chychrun is Neighbours+Hofer+1st, I'd strongly consider Perunovich+2nd, or something along those lines. Equivalent of 4 1sts and a 2nd, so not sure if there is more of a mid-tier prospect that Bill likes. Or maybe he values Sunny as a roster vet or a piece to flip, sort of how that Miller trade worked where Buffalo took Halak and Stewart with intention of flipping them, and Buffalo basically got a 2nd, 3rd, and some change. So that might end up being Neighbours+Hofer+Sundqvist+Scandella+1st+propect/Perunovich/2nd.

Haven't thought through it enough since I don't think it's that likely, but I do really like the idea of a new young core of Thomas/Kyrou/Chychrun/Crouse/Buchnevich/Barbashev, and then if any of the young pieces leftover break through.

My reluctance to giving up too much for Chychrun would be lessened if Crouse is added would be we are adding 2 guys that I think would solidly fit into our next core, and that extends our window, which is why I didn't want to give up too much potential ELC talent.

Edit: Maybe Bennett is a better comp, so 2 2nds instead of the 1st+?

Thanks for thinking that out. I think the instinct about selling Crouse separately is correct if Bill Armstrong's goal is to return the highest quality piece. I wouldn't feel confident I'd win a Crouse bid if I were offering two 2ds (one of them in the form of Sundqvist's eventual return) unless the crux of the deal were the Chychrun prospects and Bill Armstrong just had to have them.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Thanks for thinking that out. I think the instinct about selling Crouse separately is correct if Bill Armstrong's goal is to return the highest quality piece. I wouldn't feel confident I'd win a Crouse bid if I were offering two 2ds (one of them in the form of Sundqvist's eventual return) unless the crux of the deal were the Chychrun prospects and Bill Armstrong just had to have them.

Yeah, it gets overly complicated very quickly. Basically, if we could pay Neighbours+Hofer+1st for Chychrun, and then what Bennett cost for Crouse, I'd be fine overpaying a bit more to get a deal done. Chychrun for obvious reasons discussed, and Crouse brings that element that we'd lose if we move Sunny and he brings youth. Imaging Crouse and Kostin on a line just screams what Barbashev and Sunny provided during that 2019 run, at least from a physicality perspective, maybe not from the 2nd shutdown line perspective.

 

[PocketNines]

Sundqvist + 2d for Crouse sounds like an attempted redux of Blais + 2d for Buchnevich

 

[Celtic Note]

Schenn has very minimal trade value right now. Maybe there would still be enough interest, but he's showing signs of decline already, and he has a lot of term left. People like acting like Krug is the contract that will kill us, but I'm confident he'll be productive in his role through his mid 30s, Schenn on the other hand has a Backes type drop off written all over him. You hope he follows the path of someone like Doan who had a long career as a power forward, but Schenn's production the past 2 seasons isn't a good sign.

I was thrown aback when I saw the Schenn contract. It always felt it would hamstring us.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I was thrown aback when I saw the Schenn contract. It always felt it would hamstring us.

He becomes an UFA in 2028. I can't see Schenn remaining in STL for the duration.

 

[Celtic Note]

Schenn really is the weakest link of the high paid forwards. He is the one we should look to offload if someone has to go. I am not sure how you get him to leave with his NTC, nor can I figure why a team would be willing to accept him in a trade without a nice asset coming with him.

 

[simon IC]

Sorry, I beg to differ. I don't think Krug's contract will age well.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Sorry, I beg to differ. I don't think Krug's contract will age well.

I tend to agree Krug's contract will not age well, but, I don't think it will age as bad as people think. I'm also 10 times more worried about Parayko's contract than Krug's contract.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Schenn really is the weakest link of the high paid forwards. He is the one we should look to offload if someone has to go. I am not sure how you get him to leave with his NTC, nor can I figure why a team would be willing to accept him in a trade without a nice asset coming with him.

Convenience cap dumps happen. It’s all good.

The worse he gets the sweeter the nice asset going along with him.

 

[Renard]

Marek and Friedman were speculating that Arizona would likely target Hofer. And when discussing whether the young roster player, top prospect, and 1st is enough, they said it depended on the caliber of the player and prospect and could easily evolve into including a 2nd. They said to look at the deal as having roughly the equivalent value of three 1st round picks.

Personally, I’m not all that high on Perunovich. He’s six months younger than Chychrun. These two are a world apart. I do REALLY like Jake Neighbors. I’m a big fan. He’s never going to be a star winger. Chychrun will be a star defenseman. Hofer is intriguing but he’s been a bit of a statistical roller coaster. I know there are reasons for this. But the development curve (while good) has been a bit non-linear. Which is a small red flag (for me personally).

Im not expecting a sure thing for Chychrun. I’m not expecting Quentin Byfield. I realize that Arizona is going to take back a package of risky young pieces. For the St Louis package to reassure me, I think it’s going to have to win on sheer volume. The pieces can’t really get better but they can get more plentiful.

EDIT: Shucks. I didn’t realize I was in the Blues sub-forum. I should have been a little more careful there. I want to reiterate I like every Blues piece mentioned. I like your team and your fans. I hope you win another Cup.

If we deal, it should be from our strength, which is in goal. If Arizona needs goaltending, Hofer should be very attractive.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Krug might eventually get overpaid as he regresses down to more of a 3rd pair PP specialist that still puts up points, but he'll still be productive IMO. Flat cap is more of an issue when it comes to Krug as opposed to being stuck with a player that offers no or limited production.

 

[PocketNines]

Once I believed Parayko's ceiling was Shea Weber. But that was wrong, he is basically Jay Bouwmeester 2.0 with a heavier slap shot. And that is a player you are happy to give the contract Parayko just got. The only real danger is when a GM pronounces a core player to have potential beyond what he has, because the GM just did something where he now needs the player to be that thing. Although the contract is NOT a #1 defenseman's contract, it was never feasible to simply announce Parayko into the #1 role. Although he towers over Eric "always skate the puck behind the opponent's net, always fall down and always turn the puck over and always give up a 5-on 4 the other way" Brewer, he does not have much innate skill past the opponent's blue line. He has the shot. Once a season he will make some deft backhand move to the net that works. Fans incorrectly expect #1 performance from him, so you can already see the day coming when he's thrown into trade ideas. He is a minutes eater like Bouwmeester and a very large fast shutdown player like Bouwmeester. He is a core player. But you need a real defensive captain above him to make it all work and they do not have that player. Chychrun ABSOLUTELY should be that player and he is the only player in the NHL that remotely fits the Blues window who would be available. The Blues could challenge Tampa with Chychrun. (I see Tampa as a clear standard deviation ahead of the NHL and easily its best team.)

 

[Brian39]

Convenience cap dumps happen. It’s all good.

The worse he gets the sweeter the nice asset going along with him.

This question is about 50% sincere because finding data about it is hard and 50% somewhat rhetorical because I think I know the answer. I'd be thrilled to be incorrect with my assumption though. How many full NTCs have been successfully moved as cap dumps in the last few years?

Tyler Johnson used his to fully prevent the Lightning from moving him. He went unclaimed on waivers and then the Lightning were stuck with him until his full NTC became limited and they could package him with a 2nd rounder to the Hawks (in exchange for Seabrook's LTIRable contract).

The Coyotes got out of OEL's deal, but I'm not sure if I would describe that as a cap dump. Vancouver very much believed that he had upside if he was removed from a raging tire fire and traded for that upside. Worth noting that OEL requested a trade and the Yotes had to retain $990k a year for 6 years.

The Hawks got out of Keith's deal, but that is another situation where the player requested the trade.

I can't think of any others. Again, I'd love to get some examples where guys on decent teams waived to facilitate a trade. But I think the reality is that it just doesn't happen in the NHL. I agree that Krug/Schenn can be moved as cap dumps down the line (and will be unless the window is fully closed and we are better off holding on to the assets than spending assets for space). But I think if we are being realistic we need to agree that there is very little chance that either is moved until their full NTCs expire in the summer of 2025. For better or worse, I think that they are here for this year and the next 3. And if their deployment here gets limited enough that they want out, it almost certainly means that the team is either a disaster or their on-ice play makes their contract completely unappealing.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

This question is about 50% sincere because finding data about it is hard and 50% somewhat rhetorical because I think I know the answer. I'd be thrilled to be incorrect with my assumption though. How many full NTCs have been successfully moved as cap dumps in the last few years?

Tyler Johnson used his to fully prevent the Lightning from moving him. He went unclaimed on waivers and then the Lightning were stuck with him until his full NTC became limited and they could package him with a 2nd rounder to the Hawks (in exchange for Seabrook's LTIRable contract).

The Coyotes got out of OEL's deal, but I'm not sure if I would describe that as a cap dump. Vancouver very much believed that he had upside if he was removed from a raging tire fire and traded for that upside. Worth noting that OEL requested a trade and the Yotes had to retain $990k a year for 6 years.

The Hawks got out of Keith's deal, but that is another situation where the player requested the trade.

I can't think of any others. Again, I'd love to get some examples where guys on decent teams waived to facilitate a trade. But I think the reality is that it just doesn't happen in the NHL. I agree that Krug/Schenn can be moved as cap dumps down the line (and will be unless the window is fully closed and we are better off holding on to the assets than spending assets for space). But I think if we are being realistic we need to agree that there is very little chance that either is moved until their full NTCs expire in the summer of 2025. For better or worse, I think that they are here for this year and the next 3. And if their deployment here gets limited enough that they want out, it almost certainly means that the team is either a disaster or their on-ice play makes their contract completely unappealing.

I don’t know. LOL. That would take some research. But I am also making some assumptions cuz it’s been done at least a couples times, which is usually enough for a fan to over generalize it and assume it’s something that simply happens.

It probably is not as prevalent as I assume it is. But, then again, this is based on my over generalization and extrapolated assumptions.

When I have some time, though, I’ll have a look.

 

[Zezel’s Pretzels]

If we deal, it should be from our strength, which is in goal. If Arizona needs goaltending, Hofer should be very attractive.

I know it’ll be hard to swallow for this year, but if Army knows Husso has priced himself out of the team’s plans - why not trade him at the deadline and bring Chucky Sideburns back as the backup? That way we hold on to Hofer long term. Seems like better asset management

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I know it’ll be hard to swallow for this year, but if Army knows Husso has priced himself out of the team’s plans - why not trade him at the deadline and bring Chucky Sideburns back as the backup? That way we hold on to Hofer long term. Seems like better asset management

What could you get for him? If someone offered you a 1st, sure. But nobody is going to do that unless they think he is their starter heading into playoffs.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I know it’ll be hard to swallow for this year, but if Army knows Husso has priced himself out of the team’s plans - why not trade him at the deadline and bring Chucky Sideburns back as the backup? That way we hold on to Hofer long term. Seems like better asset management

Because Husso's worth is still very minimal. No team is giving up any meaningful asset for someone that has looked good in 8 starts this season.

 

[Brian39]

I know it’ll be hard to swallow for this year, but if Army knows Husso has priced himself out of the team’s plans - why not trade him at the deadline and bring Chucky Sideburns back as the backup? That way we hold on to Hofer long term. Seems like better asset management

4 very good NHL starts and a good 12 game AHL sample out of a goalie is not enough for me to downgrade the position in a year that I'm laser focused on trying to win a Cup. Neither Husso nor Lindgren has done enough to have full confidence in them taking over the net in the playoffs. Especially given the market price for goalies at the deadline. We would be lucky to get a 3rd round pick for Husso at the deadline.

A couple years ago Lehner with massive salary retention returned Chicago a 2nd rounder and Malcolm Subban. He was a year removed from being a Vezina candidate and was in the middle of a very good season as a starter on a bad CHicago team.

Hutchison returned an NHL/AHL tweener in Calle Rosen at the deadline a couple years ago.

Rittich returned a 3rd at the deadline last year.

Dubnyk returned a 5th and an AHLer at the deadline last year.

You just don't get much for a backup mid-season. No team going for it is going to see Husso as a clear upgrade from their current guy and pay a nice asset for him. A team looking to fix a legitimate problem in net is going to be sniffing around Fleury. A team looking for an immediate and medium-term option will be looking at guys like Swayman and Georgiev who have more years of team control. Downgrading the goalie depth for the asset Husso might return just isn't worth it.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Once I believed Parayko's ceiling was Shea Weber. But that was wrong, he is basically Jay Bouwmeester 2.0 with a heavier slap shot. And that is a player you are happy to give the contract Parayko just got. The only real danger is when a GM pronounces a core player to have potential beyond what he has, because the GM just did something where he now needs the player to be that thing. Although the contract is NOT a #1 defenseman's contract, it was never feasible to simply announce Parayko into the #1 role. Although he towers over Eric "always skate the puck behind the opponent's net, always fall down and always turn the puck over and always give up a 5-on 4 the other way" Brewer, he does not have much innate skill past the opponent's blue line. He has the shot. Once a season he will make some deft backhand move to the net that works. Fans incorrectly expect #1 performance from him, so you can already see the day coming when he's thrown into trade ideas. He is a minutes eater like Bouwmeester and a very large fast shutdown player like Bouwmeester. He is a core player. But you need a real defensive captain above him to make it all work and they do not have that player. Chychrun ABSOLUTELY should be that player and he is the only player in the NHL that remotely fits the Blues window who would be available. The Blues could challenge Tampa with Chychrun. (I see Tampa as a clear standard deviation ahead of the NHL and easily its best team.)

Your posts about Chychrun remind me of your advocacy for acquiring Garrison prior to the Bouwmeester trade. You similarly had a lot of enthusiasm for Garrison as the answer to the Blues’ biggest hole at the time. After the dust settled, there were reports that Garrison nixed any deal with St Louis. Hindsight shows Bouwmeester was the better option anyway, but at the time it was frustrating to have no chance at Garrison.

I suspect the chances of a Chychrun deal happening are not terribly high, even if we like the hypothetical line-up with his addition. There are too many other parties, and Armstrong isn’t well known for winning bidding wars. We would probably be well served to not become too myopic about Chychrun as the only option. I’m expecting a less ideal fit to be the eventual option.

 

[WeWentBlues]

Your posts about Chychrun remind me of your advocacy for acquiring Garrison prior to the Bouwmeester trade. You similarly had a lot of enthusiasm for Garrison as the answer to the Blues’ biggest hole at the time. After the dust settled, there were reports that Garrison nixed any deal with St Louis. Hindsight shows Bouwmeester was the better option anyway, but at the time it was frustrating to have no chance at Garrison.

I suspect the chances of a Chychrun deal happening are not terribly high, even if we like the hypothetical line-up with his addition. There are too many other parties, and Armstrong isn’t well known for winning bidding wars. We would probably be well served to not become too myopic about Chychrun as the only option. I’m expecting a less ideal fit to be the eventual option.

It's Chychrun or bust for me. Unless of course Chychrun is dealt to ANA and Lindholm becomes available.

 

[WeWentBlues]

If Scandella has Arizona on his no-trade list, I'm warming to the idea of Sundqvist being the money that gets moved to acquire Chychrun. He hasn't really looked the same this year (can't really blame him for that) and has shown to be replaceable on the ice with the depth we have in the organization.

Blues could then flip Scandella to a team that isn't on his list to provide additional cap relief.