Blues Trade Proposals 2021-2022 Part 1

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Robb_K

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Nah, you're good, no need to be more careful.

Perunovich is in a tough spot. Clearly too good for AHL, but behind Krug on a contender, so we can't feed him top PP minutes to see what he can really do. Then there's the age thing. Is Bill truly going scorched earth and focusing on pieces as young as possible to match with all the draft picks they are accumulating or would they want anyone a bit more advanced.

I don't know if Marek or Friedman have any inside info on it, but if Arizona wants Hofer, I have no problem with that. Hopefully we have cap space in summer to keep Husso who is looking a lot better, and Binnington is our guy, so if he has to be the cherry on the top to get a deal done, I'd gladly do it.
Don't forget that we also have Lindgren. Of course, he wouldn't be valued nearly as much as Hofer. But, his recent NHL play hasn't hurt him in the eyes of other GMs. Maybe he'll get some more NHL exposure this season, before the deadline. At least, it appears that he's good enough to be a better than average NHL back-up. A fair amount of goalies breakout in the 25-27 age group.
 

bleedblue1223

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Should it be concerning that Chychrun is -29? I get that it's not a great stat but more than that is a lot even comparing to the rest of the Coyotes.
I'm less concerned about this because of 2 numbers, his expected +/- is -7.8 and his PDO is 90%. Both of those indicate very bad puck luck. Like I've said before, I have no problem writing this season and last season off as outliers. When we look back on his career, I think it's more likely than not that these will be outliers for him.

For me, there is just a point where a package gets too large for a guy that we don't truly know where he'll end up as a player. Are we getting a guy that's more in the Parayko or prime Faulk tier where he's a top pair defensemen that can eat big minutes, but isn't in the upper-echelon, or is he at least closer to last season where he's our undisputed #1 and getting some level of consistent Norris consideration. When I look at our prospects in a potential package for him, none of them are off-limits for me, even Neighbours, but there is a point where I think it's too much and it would be better to look at alternatives. If the reported ask of a 3 1st equivalent of kind of what Brent Burns got, then I'm all on board with offering what it takes to get him.
 
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BleedBlue14

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Should it be concerning that Chychrun is -29? I get that it's not a great stat but more than that is a lot even comparing to the rest of the Coyotes.

Yes it is very concerning. What’s moreso concerning is how good of a season he had last season and how much that’s a driving force behind the ask from Arizona.

However, our window won’t be forever and fitting a guy that is capable of a Norris caliber season on a pretty bad team for pretty much the main entirety of our window at a contract that is doable should be worth the risk and probably much much more valuable to us than a mid to late first and 2 or 3 prospects.

On another note, I have to ask myself, do we need Brayden Schenn anymore? I’m not saying he should be dumped for nothing as he’s still a pretty effective player. But I feel like where we are at right now Barbashev and Thomas have kind of played Schenn into a situation where we may be best suited to use his cap hit elsewhere.
 
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bleedblue1223

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What if the Burns template Bill Armstrong wants is Mikkola + Neighbors + 1st? That seems most Burns-like from the Blues' roster.

Mikkola is RFA for one more year after this year, will be 26 in April and he can go to arbitration. I wonder what deal the Blues are imagining inking this offseason. At the outset of the year it looked like a small cursory raise but he has made much more impact these last 18 games and perhaps Bill Armstrong wants a nasty physical blueliner to protect his young players.

Losing Mikkola and Scandella feels a bridge too far in terms of roster subtraction. They couldn't subtract Mikkola, Sundqvist and Bortuzzo for Chychrun either.
I thought about this, and maybe if Mikkola had more games under his belt, but to me, he's too unproven and old to be a real consideration. I've been trying to figure out the Setoguchi equivalent and we really don't have one. We have the exact opposite in Barbashev. Seto gave me Stewart vibes, someone who peaked early, Seto did it with the benefit of linemates, but their overall games weren't strong enough to sustain good production and they flamed out. There was a period where teams valued them a bit more highly thinking lightning would strike twice, but quickly teams realized it wouldn't and their careers flamed out.
 

BlueOil

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On another note, I have to ask myself, do we need Brayden Schenn anymore? I’m not saying he should be dumped for nothing as he’s still a pretty effective player. But I feel like where we are at right now Barbashev and Thomas have kind of played Schenn into a situation where we may be best suited to use his cap hit elsewhere.

i've had that thought too. schenn has a tradeable contract, but a 15 team NTC as well. i think the answer hinges on what happens with tarasenko.
 

bleedblue1223

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Schenn has very minimal trade value right now. Maybe there would still be enough interest, but he's showing signs of decline already, and he has a lot of term left. People like acting like Krug is the contract that will kill us, but I'm confident he'll be productive in his role through his mid 30s, Schenn on the other hand has a Backes type drop off written all over him. You hope he follows the path of someone like Doan who had a long career as a power forward, but Schenn's production the past 2 seasons isn't a good sign.
 

Spektre

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i've had that thought too. schenn has a tradeable contract, but a 15 team NTC as well. i think the answer hinges on what happens with tarasenko.

I don't think Schenn's 15 team list kicks in until 2025 so Schenn can only be traded if he agrees to it.
 
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PocketNines

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I thought about this, and maybe if Mikkola had more games under his belt, but to me, he's too unproven and old to be a real consideration. I've been trying to figure out the Setoguchi equivalent and we really don't have one. We have the exact opposite in Barbashev. Seto gave me Stewart vibes, someone who peaked early, Seto did it with the benefit of linemates, but their overall games weren't strong enough to sustain good production and they flamed out. There was a period where teams valued them a bit more highly thinking lightning would strike twice, but quickly teams realized it wouldn't and their careers flamed out.
We don't have a Setoguchi equivalent which is why when the Burns comp was floated and our stalwart Arizona fan rt suggested this comp should make Blues fans feel good I replied that I won't feel good until the Blues acquire the player.

The one thing in this situation that makes me feel good as a Blues fan is that the idea you floated about Bill Armstrong's intimate familiarity with our prospect pool and young players cutting either positively or negatively; I think we can rule out negatively if they are seriously discussing trade ideas.
 
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bleedblue1223

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We don't have a Setoguchi equivalent which is why when the Burns comp was floated and our stalwart Arizona fan rt suggested this comp should make Blues fans feel good I replied that I won't feel good until the Blues acquire the player.

The one thing in this situation that makes me feel good as a Blues fan is that the idea you floated about Bill Armstrong's intimate familiarity with our prospect pool and young players cutting either positively or negatively; I think we can rule out negatively if they are seriously discussing trade ideas.
Agreed. Ducks and Kings have too much talent in their prospect pool, where they can say **** it, we want Chychrun and we are going to pay up to get him. Even if we offer our best prospects, we are just at best competitive with them. It's not like Bouwmeester or O'Reilly where I wanted the player and we were in the driver's seat to acquire the player. We were the only team willing to offer a 1st for Bouwmeester, something Detroit passed on, and we were the most serious team for O'Reilly. You could throw Miller in, but I didn't want him, so I never smiled, especially with those obnoxious Buffalo fans.

My optimism comes from the possibility that Hofer is being specifically targeted. If Marek had some level of inside knowledge that Arizona wants a goalie prospect in a trade, then I like our chances a lot more than I would if we had to rely on our skater prospects.
 

Linkens Mastery

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Our biggest selling point with Arizona in a deal for Chychrun is that our prospects (minus Bolduc) has Bill's fingerprints are all over them. He knows our prospects he knows their ceilings probably even better than Doug does. That's going to be selling point.
 

PocketNines

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Agreed. Ducks and Kings have too much talent in their prospect pool, where they can say **** it, we want Chychrun and we are going to pay up to get him. Even if we offer our best prospects, we are just at best competitive with them. It's not like Bouwmeester or O'Reilly where I wanted the player and we were in the driver's seat to acquire the player. We were the only team willing to offer a 1st for Bouwmeester, something Detroit passed on, and we were the most serious team for O'Reilly. You could throw Miller in, but I didn't want him, so I never smiled, especially with those obnoxious Buffalo fans.

My optimism comes from the possibility that Hofer is being specifically targeted. If Marek had some level of inside knowledge that Arizona wants a goalie prospect in a trade, then I like our chances a lot more than I would if we had to rely on our skater prospects.
Yeah the Hofer nugget is a good nugget. A lot of this is timing – Bill Armstrong clearly has a plan built around the readiness and emergence of the star players he is going to draft the next two years. That window is delayed enough that they believe it's smarter to not try to keep Chychrun for it. Even if we question the wisdom of that, it's very clear to me that BA has spent lots of time planning what should be a fascinating experiment. If they draft a goalie now he's still going to take longer to be ready to complement the impact prospects they are about to draft. So Hofer could fit the blueprint in terms of timing and if BA is convinced Hofer is a future #1 then in his mind the Blues offer has an appeal for his blueprint. IF that's the case the trade almost automatically has to be Scandella, Neighbors, Hofer, 1st. I could also see this being the trade on the table that Bill Armstrong turns to others and says beat this offer or you don't get the player and they know he's not bluffing.

That said, if that is the trade (assuming the Scandella part of it is handled) then I don't know how the Blues are going to shave 1.325M difference between Scandella and Chychrun since they are currently tight against the cap.
 

Frenzy31

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Yeah the Hofer nugget is a good nugget. A lot of this is timing – Bill Armstrong clearly has a plan built around the readiness and emergence of the star players he is going to draft the next two years. That window is delayed enough that they believe it's smarter to not try to keep Chychrun for it. Even if we question the wisdom of that, it's very clear to me that BA has spent lots of time planning what should be a fascinating experiment. If they draft a goalie now he's still going to take longer to be ready to complement the impact prospects they are about to draft. So Hofer could fit the blueprint in terms of timing and if BA is convinced Hofer is a future #1 then in his mind the Blues offer has an appeal for his blueprint. IF that's the case the trade almost automatically has to be Scandella, Neighbors, Hofer, 1st. I could also see this being the trade on the table that Bill Armstrong turns to others and says beat this offer or you don't get the player and they know he's not bluffing.

That said, if that is the trade (assuming the Scandella part of it is handled) then I don't know how the Blues are going to shave 1.325M difference between Scandella and Chychrun since they are currently tight against the cap.

How much does Neal's move save? I think we will need to move Sunny D also. While I really like him as a player, I am not sure where he fits in our line up. We have a lot of kids and players stepping up this year.
 

PocketNines

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I think Neal is already not counting against the cap currently. I don't really like moving both Scandella and Sundqvist off the roster on top of sending Neighbors + 1st + Hofer. If two roster pieces plus valuable futures go off the team it's less appealing
 

bleedblue1223

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Capfriendly has a good trade simulator, and assuming it's correct, we'd have to clear some space even if it was Scandella and Perunovich. As we approach the trade deadline, the amount required will shrink.

Now, Crouse has also been rumored to be available and if the pieces with cap considerations are Chychrun/Crouse/Scandella/Sunny, then it's compliant and we just have to throw the futures in. I could easily see Army throwing a bunch at Arizona in this scenario. That would up the cost a good amount, but holy shit would that get us playoff ready and basically give us a complete 2nd young core.
 

Brian39

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Doesn't Hofer become potentially irrelevant if Husso is the next starter? (I'm not convinced that's the likely scenario, but he's re-opened that door with his play this season.)
If Husso continues playing well enough to be the potential next starter, then we can't afford to sign him. He is a UFA in the summer and will be due a rather large raise if his play continues. Husso is probably gone after this year.
 
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bleedblue1223

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If Husso continues playing well enough to be the potential next starter, then we can't afford to sign him. He is a UFA in the summer and will be due a rather large raise if his play continues. Husso is probably gone after this year.
Husso is going to be interesting this summer. Do we find a way to create space to bring him back. Does a team offer him a decent amount to be in a bigger role, something more closely resembling a 50/50 tandem. Or are teams sort of scared off because he still won't have a huge sample size of good play.
 

Brian39

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i've had that thought too. schenn has a tradeable contract, but a 15 team NTC as well. i think the answer hinges on what happens with tarasenko.
He has a full NTC that becomes a 15 team no trade list in 2025.

Even if he would waive his NTC, I'm not sure who takes on that contract at the moment. He is making $6.5M and has scored 48 points in 78 games over the last 2 seasons. And the dip in production can't be blamed on poor shooting luck. He's shooting at 14.5% and has consistently been playing with talented players. I don't think there is much market for a 30 year old 50 point guy making $6.5M per year for another 6 years (after this one).

I don't think Schenn would get claimed if he was placed on waivers today. He hasn't been worth the AAV for the last 12 months and everyone thought the last 2-4 years of his deal were going to look ugly. He's still owed about $40M, so there is massive financial risk in taking on his contract. Unless/until he picks his game up, we're stuck with him.
 
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Brian39

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Husso is going to be interesting this summer. Do we find a way to create space to bring him back. Does a team offer him a decent amount to be in a bigger role, something more closely resembling a 50/50 tandem. Or are teams sort of scared off because he still won't have a huge sample size of good play.
It all depends how he looks over the next 50 games. If he keeps putting up a .920+ through another 12-20 games, then teams absolutely won't be scared off. Teams aren't going to need to offer 3+ year term to beat our offers. Any 2 year deal on a market value contract for a tope end backup or 1B is going to exceed what we can spend on our goaltending. The backup/tandem UFA goalie market is $2-$4M depending on the quality of the guy you get. I don't see us willing or able to tie up $8-$9M+ in net.
 
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bleedblue1223

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It all depends how he looks over the next 50 games. If he keeps putting up a .920+ through another 12-20 games, then teams absolutely won't be scared off. Teams aren't going to need to offer 3+ year term to beat our offers. Any 2 year deal on a market value contract for a tope end backup or 1B is going to exceed what we can spend on our goaltending. The backup/tandem UFA goalie market is $2-$4M depending on the quality of the guy you get. I don't see us willing or able to tie up $8-$9M+ in net.
Yeah, I could see him getting a 2 year, 2.5ish/year deal if he finishes with at least 20 starts with numbers close to where he is currently producing. Sort of like Halak in Boston or Khudobin in Dallas. The part of me that thinks we would invest this amount in him and the backup position is I think we've learned from Chad Johnson and last year's version of Husso of how important a quality backup is. If Barbashev along with Kyrou, Buchnevich, and Thomas all performing like they are, maybe along with a Tarasenko, maybe Perron isn't brought back, and suddenly we have the cap for a LHD upgrade and a quality backup.
 
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Brian39

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Yeah, I could see him getting a 2 year, 2.5ish/year deal if he finishes with at least 20 starts with numbers close to where he is currently producing. Sort of like Halak in Boston or Khudobin in Dallas. The part of me that thinks we would invest this amount in him and the backup position is I think we've learned from Chad Johnson and last year's version of Husso of how important a quality backup is. If Barbashev along with Kyrou, Buchnevich, and Thomas all performing like they are, maybe along with a Tarasenko, maybe Perron isn't brought back, and suddenly we have the cap for a LHD upgrade and a quality backup.
I could see that offer getting us in to the Husso marketplace. But unlike Halak and Khudobin, he is still working to be a starter rather than accepting that he is best suited as a 1B. If the moeny is comparable between us and a team with a murkier crease, I'd see him going to the team that gives him the best chance to start. With as much as this organization insists on finding a 60-65+ start workhorse, I'm not sure they want to invest that kind of money in a backup for their $6M guy. I've hated our goalie workload management for years now, but I don't have any reason to believe that the desire for a workhorse changed after giving Binner a workhorse contract.
 

bleedblue1223

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Off-season for goalies is also a weird game of musical chairs where in any given year, either the teams have a ton of leverage or the players do, depending on how many NHL caliber goalies are on the market, and how many spots are available.
 

Reality Czech

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I have a really good/bad feeling that Husso is gonna continue to improve. Good because it will help the Blues short-term, but bad because I fear we will lose him as a UFA to see him thrive elsewhere. I was quite skeptical of him last year, but he looks so poised and confident now. Never count out a Finnish goalie, and it would be a real shame to see him have success for another team. I wonder what the Blues would do if he outperforms Binner for the rest of this season.
 

PocketNines

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How much we can spend to ensure a quality NHL backup will depend on the decisions with Perron and Tarasenko in the offseason. If they move three quality futures to get Chychrun then they're more likely to move Tarasenko for futures at the draft. If they don't get an impact left defenseman who will be on the team next year they will still need to target one.

I haven't spent much time trying to expand the deal to add Crouse. I can see that Chychrun + Crouse = Scandella + Sundqvist. But wouldn't the Blues have to add more to Neighbors + Hofer + 1st?
 
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