Blues Trade Proposals 2021-2022 Part 1

[bleedblue1223]

I'm not trading Thomas or Kyrou for Chychrun, but any prospect including Perunovich. I'm still curious what sort of defenseman Chychrun develops into. I'm not sold that he's a true #1 that scores 40+ points every season. How much of his stats last season were driven by having more games against the Ducks, Kings, and Sharks, he had 25 points in those 24 games. I still remember back in 12/13 both Stepan and Kadri were near ppg, and it's been clear those numbers were influence by a weird lockout schedule.

For what I'm confident that Chychrun would be, I think he'd solve our problems, so I'd still be 100% on board with him, but he's been overvalued because of his contract IMO. And if Arizona is considering moving him because they believe last season was an outlier, then someone is going to regret the move because of the asset cost.

 

[Xerloris]

There has been some crazy shit trade proposals here lately.

 

[WeWentBlues]

If there is a deal to be made with Arizona, I wonder if the Blues could have an inside track given Bill Armstrong's previous role and his familiarity with the Blues prospects.

He was ecstatic about the Perunovich pick. Hofer? Alexandrov?
I wonder how close this would get us. Scandella, Perunovich, Hofer, 2022 1st, 2024 2nd for Chychrun. Scandella would have to be in the deal or in another deal to another team to make the money work.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

If there is a deal to be made with Arizona, I wonder if the Blues could have an inside track given Bill Armstrong's previous role and his familiarity with the Blues prospects.

He was ecstatic about the Perunovich pick. Hofer? Alexandrov?
I wonder how close this would get us. Scandella, Perunovich, Hofer, 2022 1st, 2024 2nd for Chychrun. Scandella would have to be in the deal or in another deal to another team to make the money work.

That offer would make Bill tell Doug to lose his number. That deal gets topped by any team in the league easily.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Any deal with Arizona is going to have to start with two of Perunovich, Kostin, Bolduc, or Neighbors, then add on probably a bare minimum of 2 1st round picks and Scandella for cap reasons. And even then they'd probably still ask for more.

 

[WeWentBlues]

Any deal with Arizona is going to have to start with two of Perunovich, Kostin, Bolduc, or Neighbors, then add on probably a bare minimum of 2 1st round picks and Scandella for cap reasons. And even then they'd probably still ask for more.

I would pull the trigger even at that price.

 

[Stealth JD]

Yep. The only way we would be in the running is to put Thomas or Kyrou in. Which is why I did it.

I think Brown may make the loss of Thomas easier to swallow but he really is a step down from Thomas. And Barby looks great centering the Russian. We have Sunny D and Schenn and Bozak who can all play center. It is a tough choice. We would solve our LHD for the next 4 years by making this move. Partner Chychrun with Faulk, Mikkola with CP, and Bort with Krug and that is a very scary D. But losing Thomas..... not sure I like that idea. I guess the big positive I see is the cap hit of Chychrun

If the Blues have questions regarding Thomas' conditioning, and continued injury concerns do nothing to dispel those, then maybe they could find a 3C easier than a 1D, and hope that ROR/Schenn/Brown/Bozak is enough to keep them in contention. It's not a bad or unfair trade if Thomas and Chychrun are swapped, but the plusses shouldn't be anything crazy.

I proposed: 2022 1st, 2023 1st, Jake Neighbors & Scott Perunovich (w/ Scandella for salary), and wasn't shot down immediately by one AZ fan:

Friedman: - Coyotes gauging the market on Chychrun

 

[Seattlebjprice]

I’d go Perunovich, Husso, Kostin (or 1st), 2nd following year if Kostin taken instead of the 1st.

for chychrun.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I’d go Perunovich, Husso, Kostin (or 1st), 2nd following year if Kostin taken instead of the 1st.

for chychrun.

Other teams would easily offer more.

 

[Frenzy31]

I’d go Perunovich, Husso, Kostin (or 1st), 2nd following year if Kostin taken instead of the 1st.

for chychrun.

I think that deal gets beat. I really Perunovich, but does he fit in with their time frame so his value for him may not be as high as it would be to a team like Detroit that is coming out of a rebuild. Same kind of holds true for Thomas.

Like I said in the beginning, it is a fun talking point and good for a discussion.

 

[jjniner]

Seattle.. how does Perunovich not fit into the Arizona window?

 

[BlueDream]

I think we may have found our defensive pairings.

Mikkola - Parayko
Krug - Faulk
Scandella - Bortuzzo

Mikkola has stabilized Parayko who finally looks much better. Mikkola is a poor man’s Parayko with his size, reach and skating so they are a good duo.

Krug and Faulk are comfortable with each other and are the puck-moving pair. Faulk is good enough all-around to cover for Krug.

Scandella is finally where he belongs on the 3rd pairing. They don’t have to do too much against weaker competition besides play physical, block shots and be good defensively. Him and Bortuzzo can certainly do that.

Chychrun is a great player. I like him. But right now, it’s not worth losing someone like Thomas or other assets like a 1st round pick for him. Let’s see how Mikkola progresses and re-evaluate closer to the deadline. But as of now we no longer need to overpay for someone.

 

[Seattlebjprice]

I think that deal gets beat. I really Perunovich, but does he fit in with their time frame so his value for him may not be as high as it would be to a team like Detroit that is coming out of a rebuild. Same kind of holds true for Thomas.

Like I said in the beginning, it is a fun talking point and good for a discussion.

agree!

my hope would be that Bill picked the skaters (when he drafted them) and therefore they have more value to him than other options.

 

[Zezel’s Pretzels]

Roster planning:

After this season (2022 offseason): Perron, Husso, and Bortuzzo are UFAs, and Mikkola and Kostin are RFAs.

After next season (2023 offseason), ROR, Vladi, Barby, Sunny are all UFAs and Kyrou, Thomas, and Perunovich are RFAs.

For 2023-2024, the Blues have 8 guys (Buch, Saad, Schenn, Parayko, Faulk, Krug, Scandella, Binner) under contract, with $45.5M already on the books. Even if the cap goes up to $85.5M (an increase of $4M), that's $40M left to fill 15 spots.

2022 UFAs: Husso might have priced himself right out of the Blues with his start to the year. Sign Perron for at or less than his current cap, if possible. Let's say $4M for Perron. Extend Bortuzzo at the same cap hit ($1.5M) for a couple more years. He's a leader by example on this club. Down to $34.5M for 13 players.

2022 RFA: Mikkola could be getting $1.5M per year on a bridge contract, and Kostin at $1M for a couple years sounds fine. Down to $32M for 11 players.

2023 UFAs: I think ROR and Barby are locks to extend for different reasons. Barby's going to get a raise too. The dead horse that is Vladi's situation has been beaten quite well, and I think he gets traded this offseason for futures regardless. It's just solid roster management. With Sunny, I think it depends on if he gets back to the guy he was before Covid and the surgeries. Let's say $13M for Barby and ROR combined for 2023-2024. Down to $19M for 9 players.

2023 RFAs: Kyrou deserves the Brinks truck backing up to his apartment (soon to be mansion). I don't want to envision him not being a Blue for 8-10 more years. That's another, let's say, $8M gone.

So, we're down to $11M for 8 players - 6 F, 1 D, and a backup G.

Given where Thomas' and Perunovich's salaries should be, and given Husso could have priced himself out of the long-term picture already, maybe the Blues SHOULD be thinking about trading these three this year? Either for more cost-certainty like Chchyrun that fits in our window, or for futures that restock the cupboard and stagger costs better?

Even if BobTom comes back looking great this year, his trade value will be higher now than later with the RFA years, and we may not be able to fit him in anyway.

So, as a deadline deal:

ARZ - Thomas, Perunovich, Husso (with their intent to extend), Scandella
STL - Chchyrun
*with picks in either direction to balance it out. Blues might even get a pick given this proposal.

This hurts F and G depth a bit this year, but man alive, that D corps. And I have confidence in Lindgren as a backup right now. Really, the loss of Thomas is the only one that hurts for this year, and we've been winning without him for a couple weeks now.

2023-2024 lineup, given the above:

F: ROR, Barby, Kyrou, Saad, Buch, Schenn, Perron at his current salary or lower, Kostin, and a combination of youth/AHL guys on the come up (Brown, Neighbours, Bolduc, Brown, Torop, Alexandrov, etc.). Maybe a 3rd line UFA as well.

D: Parayko, Faulk, Mikkola, Krug, Bortuzzo, and Chchyrun; add an AHL 7D.

G: Binner, Lindgren, Hofer as AHL 1G/3rd on the depth, Gillies AHL backup

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I can't believe we're actually talking about trading Thomas right now. Our first top 6 center draft hit in forever. With RoR a UFA after next season and Schenn becoming hampered with injuries and no one in the pipeline we CAN NOT afford to trade Thomas if we want to he competitive 3-4 years from now.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Yeah, we aren't trading Thomas.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

One potentially overlooked consideration - after next season, ROR, Vladi, Barby, Sunny are all UFAs and Kyrou, Thomas, and Perunovich are RFAs.

Not to mention, Husso is a UFA and Mikkola is an RFA with arb rights who's ripe for a bridge contract. And the Blues have to decide on Perron this offseason as well, who I have not factored into the below.

For 2023-2024, the Blues have 8 guys (Buch, Saad, Schenn, Parayko, Faulk, Krug, Scandella, Binner) under contract for $45.5M. Even if the cap goes up to $85M, that's $40M left to fill 15 spots.

Of the RFAs, I think ROR and Barby are locks to extend for different reasons. Barby's going to get a raise too. The dead horse that is Vladi's situation has been beaten quite well. With Sunny, I think it depends on if he gets back to the guy he was before Covid and the surgeries. Let's say $13M for Barby and ROR combined for 2023-2024. Down to $27M.

Kyrou deserves the Brinks truck backing up to his apartment (soon to be mansion). I don't want to envision him not being a Blue for 8-10 more years. That's another, let's say, $8M gone. Down to $19M.

Mikkola might be getting $1.5M as soon as next year. Down to $17.5M for 11 players - 8 F, 2 D, and a backup G. Husso might have priced himself right out of the Blues with his start to the year.

Given where Thomas' and Perunovich's salaries should be, and given Husso could have priced himself out of the long-term picture already, maybe the Blues SHOULD be thinking about trading these three this year? Either for more cost-certainty like Chchyrun that fits in our window, or for futures that restock the cupboard and stagger costs better?

Even if BobTom comes back looking great this year, his trade value will be higher now than later with the RFA years, and we may not be able to fit him in anyway.

So, as a deadline deal:

ARZ - Thomas, Perunovich, Husso (with their intent to extend), Scandella
STL - Chchyrun
*with picks in either direction to balance it out. Blues might even get a pick given this proposal.

This hurts F and G depth a bit this year, but man alive, that D corps. And I have confidence in Lindgren as a backup right now. Really, the loss of Thomas is the only one that hurts for this year, and we've been winning without him for a couple weeks now.

Trade Vladi this offseason for futures.

2023-2024 lineup, given the above:

F: ROR, Barby, Kyrou, Saad, Buch, Schenn, Perron at his current salary or lower, and a combination of youth/AHL guys on the come up (Kostin, Brown, Neighbours, Bolduc, Brown, Torop, Alexandrov, etc.). Maybe a 3rd line UFA as well.

D: Parayko, Faulk, Mikkola, Krug, Chchyrun, and a Bobbo extension; add an AHL 7D.

G: Binner, Lindgren, Hofer as AHL 1G/3rd on the depth, Gillies AHL backup

imo, Kyrou is not an 8m/yr player

 

[MissouriMook]

One thing to keep in mind as these Chychrun proposals get kicked around is that a GM must evaluate two main things when targeting a player. The first and most obvious is, "What is that player worth?" The second, and less obvious question, is "How much am I willing to spend to address a roster hole or make this particular roster improvement?"

I think Army was vilified, and rightly so, for his huge miss in answering the second question when he acquired Ryan Miller a few years back. I think you could even add a third question to the list, specifically "How well will (targeted player) fit in with the remaining roster?"

With the emergence of Mikkola, acknowledging that it is still too early to tell if his reliability in the shut down role will sustain, I'm not sure how much Army should be willing to spend to improve the LD situation on the roster, especially if the market price includes someone like Thomas or Kyrou. As soon as you pay that price, you're looking to fill another hole.

 

[Zezel’s Pretzels]

I think the responses to my rambling post are all valid, and I'm sure I missed on some pieces of my analysis. I'd hate to mortgage such a future asset like Thomas, and I agree that the rise of Mikkola might negate the need to make a big D move for this year.

I'm just thinking that something's going to have to give over the next 1.5 years; we're not going to be able to keep all of Kyrou, Thomas, Perunovich, and Husso if they stay on their positive trajectories, unless we tie futures to big contracts (Schenn and Krug come to mind) to get rid of those contracts.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I think the responses to my rambling post are all valid, and I'm sure I missed some stuff. I'd hate to mortgage such a future asset like Thomas, and I agree that the rise of Mikkola might negate the need to make a big D move for this year.

I'm just thinking that something's going to have to give over the next 1.5 years; we're not going to be able to keep all of Kyrou, Thomas, Perunovich, and Husso if they stay on their positive trajectories, unless we tie futures to big contracts (Schenn and Krug come to mind) to get rid of them.

There's supposed to be a substantial increase in cap space in a few years as well which would lessen the Blow of those cap hits.

 

[Zezel’s Pretzels]

There's supposed to be a substantial increase in cap space in a few years as well which would lessen the Blow of those cap hits.

I factored in a $4M increase to the cap by then. That's pretty substantial given the Covid impacts.

 

[Blanick]

I would offer Bolduc + Kostin + 1st + Scandella (cap) for Chychrun as a start and see what the Coyotes counter with. That is a pretty significant package but I'd imagine they will want a cherry on top.

When healthy.

Saad - ROR - Perron
Schenn - Thomas - Kyrou
Buchnevich - Barbashev - Tarasenko
Brown - Bozak - Sundqvist

Chychrun - Parayko
Krug - Faulk
Mikkola - Perunovich/Bortuzzo

Binnington
Husso

That is a roster I could see winning another cup.

 

[542365]

Jack Eichel(admittedly with health concerns) returned a 1st, 2nd, decent roster player, and a good prospect. That’s Jack f***ing Eichel, one of the best players in the world when healthy. We just got Buch for Sammy Blais and a second. The players never get traded for these crazy amounts that we see thrown about in speculative trade offers. They’ll get a 1st, decent prospect, decent young player more than likely. Something like 1st, Bolduc, and Kostin. There’s no way they’re getting anyone close to Thomas or Kyrou.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

Yep - player, prospect, pick. Same as it ever was.

 

[BlueMed]

imo, Kyrou is not an 8m/yr player

If he continues this pace, he absolutely is. He brings that game breaking ability that we will lose in Tarasenko once he leaves via trade or free agency.