Blues Discussion Thread 2018-2019

[Klank Loves You]

I have to imagine Fabbri will struggle at the beginning of the season. 2 years away from the speed of the game is going to make finding his timing difficult.

Schwartz - Schenn - Tarasenko
Steen - RoR - Perron
Fabbri - Bozak - Thomas
4th

Thats opening night. Shelter the 3rd line, and give Fabbri some fun boys to remember that hockey isnt all soul crushing misery.

Steen is seemingly the least offensively talented player in our top 9. I hope he gets pushed off the PP, and takes on the role of D specialist.

 

[DoubleK81]

If you want to shelter Fabbri, you give him the o-zone starts with Vladi. Putting him with Bozak ( not known for his d-zone play) and Thomas ( someone who has never played in the NHL ) is a recipe for disaster.

In my mind, starting lineups until proven they dont work together go as follows

Schwartz-Schenn-Perron
Fabbri-ROR-Tarasenko
Steen-Bozak-Thomas

You can mix up Perron/Fabbri/Steen/Thomas as necessary depending on how each works with others, but you want Fabbri getting more o-zone starts as possible at this point. I don't think Fabbri's playmaking skils will be affected much, its going to be his ability to get in/back to the play that will take some time to get back to. In no way shape or form should Schwartz and Schenn be split up.

 

[BlueDream]

If you want to shelter Fabbri, you give him the o-zone starts with Vladi. Putting him with Bozak ( not known for his d-zone play) and Thomas ( someone who has never played in the NHL ) is a recipe for disaster.

In my mind, starting lineups until proven they dont work together go as follows

Schwartz-Schenn-Perron
Fabbri-ROR-Tarasenko
Steen-Bozak-Thomas

You can mix up Perron/Fabbri/Steen/Thomas as necessary depending on how each works with others, but you want Fabbri getting more o-zone starts as possible at this point. I don't think Fabbri's playmaking skils will be affected much, its going to be his ability to get in/back to the play that will take some time to get back to. In no way shape or form should Schwartz and Schenn be split up.

Those look good to me. That's a nasty top 6, and then you have a 3rd line that is better than last year's 2nd line.

It's still crazy to me how we just added an entire line of players in the matter of hours yesterday. God that lineup looks stacked.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I think those are the best lines to start with. Only switch I’d make is swapping Bozak and Thomas.

Boz has successfully played RW in Toronto, and I think the only way we see Thomas on the wing is if him and Perron swap spots. O’Reilly/Tarasenko, Schwartz/Schenn, and Steen/Bozak seem to be the 3 combos they’re gonna be rolling with...which I’m more than okay with.

 

[Alklha]

It depends on whether Kyrou can force his way onto the roster or now. Thomas starts as the fourth line centre is Kyrou makes the roster. If Kyrou isn't ready, then Thomas should be the third line centre. I don't see the upside of using him on RW. He isn't making the team solely on his offensive abilities, it is because of his overall game and that is what we should be looking to develop.

Steen-Thomas makes the most sense to me, which means a Fabbri-ROR-Tarasenko line. Then it is just seeing which line Bozak and Perron fit best on as the RW'ers. I'd lean towards Bozak with Schwartz & Schenn.

 

[Robb_K]

I'd like to see Bozak as RW on Schenn/Schwartz line. Could help with faceoffs and provide RHS. This would allow ROR to center Tank and Thomas to center 3rd line. I know Bozak has been center most of his career, but think moving him to wing makes most sense. Schenn was much better at C than RW, Thomas is rookie who would be able to break in at position he is most comfortable, and ROR is 1C who great on FO and defensively.

Yes. I prefer to have Bozak on RW so Thomas can start as #3 centre. Better that he starts at his natural position, so he can became effective at centre for The Blues, at the earliest date possible. Also, better for him to start where he's comfortable. Bozak would be fine at RW.

 

[Celtic Note]

Yes. I prefer to have Bozak on RW so Thomas can start as #3 centre. Better that he starts at his natural position, so he can became effective at centre for The Blues, at the earliest date possible. Also, better for him to start where he's comfortable. Bozak would be fine at RW.

I think your also mitigating some of Bozak’s defensive deficiencies by putting him on the wing.

 

[Evocable Manager]

Didn't Army say something about Thomas centering O'Reilly and Tarasenko?

Holy boys it's gonna be one hell of a season. Man I'm amped to get to camp and see the roster.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

I'd like to see Bozak as RW on Schenn/Schwartz line. Could help with faceoffs and provide RHS. This would allow ROR to center Tank and Thomas to center 3rd line. I know Bozak has been center most of his career, but think moving him to wing makes most sense. Schenn was much better at C than RW, Thomas is rookie who would be able to break in at position he is most comfortable, and ROR is 1C who great on FO and defensively.

That’s... pretty interesting actually. It’s between Bozak and Perron for that spot I would assume. Maybe Thomas squeaks in there? Bozak would certainly fit their style of play though I think

 

[Chief Steele]

IMO you start Thomas at his natural position. And move either Bozak or RoR to the wing. I like Bozak to the wing letting RoR center the 2nd line.. with Thomas at 3C with Steen.
Also I don't know if I would pull Tank of the 1st line. remember the Schenn/Schwartz/Tank line was one of the best in Hockey until Schwartz got hurt, and now you can put together a quality 2nd line also..

 

[The Note in MI]

Firstly, holy man can training camp please please please start?

Secondly, as of today (and I know it’s early) where do we stand in terms of the cream of the crop of the NHL and what tier would you place us?

IMO things would fall like this In no particular order within tiers

Tier 1 Contenders
Pittsburgh
Washington
Boston
Tampa
Toronto
Winnipeg
Nashville
St. Louis After UFA

Tier 2 Pretenders
San Jose
Dallas
Vegas
Philly
Anaheim
LA
Colorado

Tier 3 Bubble
Minnesota
Columbus
Florida
NJ

Tier 4 trying to be Bubble
Chicago
Carolina
Calgary
Edmonton
Arizona
St. Louis before UFA

Tier 5 Bad
Buffalo
Ottawa
Vancouver
NYI
NYR
Detroit
Montreal

 

[BrokenFace]

Welp, I followed ROR to Buffalo, and so now y’all have to deal with my ass!

What’s funny is that I grew up a Blues fan in Troy, IL, during the Hull and Oates days. Excited to hear about the trade and it feels good to root for the Blues again.

Welcome aboard! I'm digging your ROR+MGS avatar

 

[Majorityof1]

Why does everyone want O'Reilly with Tarasenko? Is it just because he is the bigger name/more well-regarded player? Does he fit stylistically? @Dbrownss has pointed out that O'Reilly's offensive game is similar to Stastny's. He likes to be down low and plays a slower more methodical game. I honestly have not watched enough of him to get a real good sense of his offensive style. So I will assume that is true, until someone says different. Tarasenko likes to get the puck in transition or with drop passes to then cut across and shoot. If you watch his highlight reels, he is very rarely scoring goals after getting fed from down low. Bozak, on the other hand, had success with Kessel. He was able to get him the puck in transition or use his body and positioning to clear space for Kessel when he had the puck. Watch highlights of Kessel's goals in Toronto. Bozak can often be seen cutting across the slot, drawing defenders eyes and giving Kessel the space he needed to cut to the vacated area for a clean shot. Its similar to the success Tarasenko had with Lehtera's drop passes, minus the pass. Bozak also prefers the left side, or slot, opposite Tarasanko, whereas lots of the highlights I saw from ROR had him coming down the right wing.

I know some people want ROR to cover for him defensively, but Bozak has experience covering Kessel. And you want ROR out against their best players but Tarasenko out against their worst. If Yeo is going to play match-ups it makes sense to split them (although on the flip, if he is going to role whatever, then maybe it makes sense to keep them together).

I personally like the idea of a pure scoring line. However, I am more concerned we don't keep trying to fit a square peg in a round hole because they are our two highest paid forwards.

 

[Dbrownss]

Why does everyone want O'Reilly with Tarasenko? Is it just because he is the bigger name/more well-regarded player? Does he fit stylistically? @Dbrownss has pointed out that O'Reilly's offensive game is similar to Stastny's. He likes to be down low and plays a slower more methodical game. I honestly have not watched enough of him to get a real good sense of his offensive style. So I will assume that is true, until someone says different. Tarasenko likes to get the puck in transition or with drop passes to then cut across and shoot. If you watch his highlight reels, he is very rarely scoring goals after getting fed from down low. Bozak, on the other hand, had success with Kessel. He was able to get him the puck in transition or use his body and positioning to clear space for Kessel when he had the puck. Watch highlights of Kessel's goals in Toronto. Bozak can often be seen cutting across the slot, drawing defenders eyes and giving Kessel the space he needed to cut to the vacated area for a clean shot. Its similar to the success Tarasenko had with Lehtera's drop passes, minus the pass. Bozak also prefers the left side, or slot, opposite Tarasanko, whereas lots of the highlights I saw from ROR had him coming down the right wing.

I know some people want ROR to cover for him defensively, but Bozak has experience covering Kessel. And you want ROR out against their best players but Tarasenko out against their worst. If Yeo is going to play match-ups it makes sense to split them (although on the flip, if he is going to role whatever, then maybe it makes sense to keep them together).

I personally like the idea of a pure scoring line. However, I am more concerned we don't keep trying to fit a square peg in a round hole because they are our two highest paid forwards.

I've been watching highlights thinking maybe I'm wrong and honestly, all I've gathered is ROR can RIP a 1 timer. I'd still stand by my assessment of ROR. Tarasenko likes his uptempo rush attack game.

I'd like to see these lines

Schwartz Schenn Perron
Steen Orielly Thomas
Fabbri Bozak Tarasenko

Line 1: Perron proved he can play a top line roll, give it to him again.

Line 2: You'll never get the puck from them. Thomas adds speed and dynamic skating to those 2 slow pokes. He will drive the offense through his transition ability.

Line 3: as Majorityof1 said, I see Bozak stylistically fitting with Tarasenko, and Fabbri meshes with anything. This gives Tarasenko and Fabbri a RHS to set up bang bang plays and 1 timers.


This is Pittsburgh spreading the wealth quality, minus the HOF skill

 

[Itsnotatrap]

I’d try Bozak with Tarasenko first as well, and try to get near 60% ozone starts with the duo. Putting him on Schenn’s RW seems like a pretty decent option too though.

 

[Meatball]

Personally, I think barring any injuries of course, the only way Bozak starts at 3C is if Thomas plays on Schwartz/Schenn’s wing. If not, he’ll probably be on Thomas’ wing, with Perron playing on the 2nd line.

Something like this is what I truly expect.

Steen/Fabbri-O’Reilly-Tarasenko
Schwartz-Schenn-Perron
Fabbri/Steen-Thomas-Bozak

Or

Schwartz-Schenn-Thomas
Fabbri/Steen-Bozak-Perron

This post makes me laugh about the days of Berglund-Brodziak-Steen as our second line.

To go from that to this, potentially. I'm still in shock.

EDIT: There are no scrubs in that top 9, this is cup-quality scoring depth. No hyperbole.

 

[carter333167]

I really don't think Vladi's style and game feed off of picture perfect passes....he doesn't rely on the one-timer preferring instead to catch and release on his wrister after one or two moves. He also loves to dish it himself far more than someone like Ovi.

I think he needs to be more with a shooting center than a pass-first center. This is why I think, as a whole, the Schenn, Schwartz, Vladi line excelled. I'm not sure I would break that up at the start of the season. It was one of the top 4 lines in the NHL when they were rolling.

 

[Chief Steele]

Agreed that line was one of the best in all of hockey before Jaden got hurt. and Allen went south.. I really hope that DA and Yeo and the Goalie coach are having a long heart to heart with Allen... about his play through out the year.. I want to have faith in Allen I really do... but that is our weakest link right now IMO..

 

[carter333167]

Man, that Doughty contract! I wonder what Petro is going to want to re-up?

 

[Thallis]

ROR is much better down low than Stastny was. He's more like Schwartz along the boards, which is what Tarasenko needs. Tarasenko is best off the rush and when he's paired with puck hounds who can dig in the corners, win the puck and find him. Statsny failed with Tarasenko because he wasn't good enough at retrieving the puck down low. In the short period where Lehtera was an effective player in our lineup, it was because he was winning battles down low and finding Tarasenko. Pure playmakers aren't as good because Tarasenko is much more of a direct shooter than other scorers. When he gets the puck in a decent spot, he fires it. This leads to a lot of pucks going into the corners where guys have to battle to gain possession again.

Man, that Doughty contract! I wonder what Petro is going to want to re-up?

Low side: 9.5M, high side: 10.5M

He's worth every penny.

 

[Meatball]

Schwartz-Schenn-Tarasenko
Steen-O'Reilly-Perron
Fabbri-Bozak-Thomas

I'm perfectly fine with this to start the season.

We go from (1) 1st line and (2) 3rd lines last season to arguably (2) 1st lines and a 2nd line this season.

 

[The Note]

Really, at this point given who is likely going to be on the roster, Yeo is going to have to actively try to find combinations I wouldn’t be happy with. It’s quite refreshing given how the team limped to the finish line last year.

 

[Celtic Note]

I don’t think Stastny and ROR are as similar offensively as some are suggesting. Also chemistry isn’t always easy to figure even with similar players. I still think ROR will be a better fit for Tarasenko for two reasons. One he is better offensively than Bozak. Even with better wingers, Bozak isn’t hitting ROR’s numbers with lesser wingers. Second, Bozak and Tarasenko on one line creates pretty significant defensive deficiencies that one defensive winger will struggle to overcome.

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

I don’t think Stastny and ROR are as similar offensively as some are suggesting. Also chemistry isn’t always easy to figure even with similar players. I still think ROR will be a better fit for Tarasenko for two reasons. One he is better offensively than Bozak. Even with better wingers, Bozak isn’t hitting ROR’s numbers with lesser wingers. Second, Bozak and Tarasenko on one line creates pretty significant defensive deficiencies that one defensive winger will struggle to overcome.

That's why I think you'll see the pairs of O'Reilly Tarasenko, Schenn, Schwartz, Bozak Steen. You can fill in around them but you'll see those pairing because O'Reilly and Steen assist with some of the defensive lacking of Bozak and Tarasenko. Schwartz and Schenn were excellent defensively together last season which is why I think you could ease Thomas in there or insert Kyrou as those two could help the two young guys along.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

An interesting question is how far do these moves get us in terms of being contenders again? This is mostly purely speculative, but there is an element of predictivity involved as well.

Around the draft, Chace McCallum wrote an interesting article regarding draft values at LWOS. In it, he argues that the NHL is a "strong link" game, where elite pieces are more important than having a "high floor" team. A good team in a "weak link" sport, conversely, is only as good as its weakest link.

Using the NHL Draft To Acquire Strong Links and Draft Pick Value Charts - Last Word on Hockey

You can read more in depth at that article, but one of the things he attaches is a Goals Against Replacement (GAR) metric spreadsheet. I don't think it's a foolproof calculation, there are are a few outliers that don't seem right to me. But regardless, it's good enough for a back-of-the-napkin calculation: Which teams have the "strongest links"?

So basically I went through and changed everybody's teams to reflect who they play for after the FA Frenzy this last weekend. Then, I calculated the sum goals against replacement generated by each team. This is what I got:

Team GAR
PIT 108.7
PHI 107.4
WPG 107.3
TOR 107.2
NSH 106.8
VGK 106.5
T.B 106.1
STL 104.6
CAR 104.1
FLA 101.2
MIN 98.8
S.J 98.7
ANA 97.1
WSH 96.1
BOS 95.7
CGY 92.3
CBJ 92.3
NYI 90.1
COL 87.6
DET 83.2
EDM 81.5
CHI 81.1
N.J 80.0
DAL 79.3
NYR 75.1
ARI 74.5
L.A 72.1
MTL 71.2
VAN 69.0
OTT 62.2
BUF 49.6

So, for Western Conference teams, the Blues are right up there with Winnipeg, Nashville, and Vegas. In terms of forwards, we're actually only behind Winnipeg, but Bouwmeester and Gunnarsson boat-anchor us down relative to other teams' d-groups.

A few more important things: Robby Fabbri isn't included in the chart. Depending on how he comes back (and I'm hoping for a Mattias Janmark-esque return), he could help close the gap between us and Winnipeg. Pat Maroon has a GAR of about 8, so he would help too. It might not be that simple though, because Laine's GAR in this chart is only 5.1, which seems incredibly low to me - it's on par with guys like Coyle and Guentzel.

Armstrong's moves really, really helped us this weekend. We went from Berglund, Sobotka, and Thompson (2.9, 0.2, No Score = 3.1) to Perron, Bozak, and O'Reilly (6.9, 9.9, 17.2 = 34). That is a ridiculous improvement in terms of strong links. The table above suggests that we are among the best in the league right now.