Blues Discussion Thread 2018-2019

[The Note in MI]

An interesting question is how far do these moves get us in terms of being contenders again? This is mostly purely speculative, but there is an element of predictivity involved as well.

Around the draft, Chace McCallum wrote an interesting article regarding draft values at LWOS. In it, he argues that the NHL is a "strong link" game, where elite pieces are more important than having a "high floor" team. A good team in a "weak link" sport, conversely, is only as good as its weakest link.

Using the NHL Draft To Acquire Strong Links and Draft Pick Value Charts - Last Word on Hockey

You can read more in depth at that article, but one of the things he attaches is a Goals Against Replacement (GAR) metric spreadsheet. I don't think it's a foolproof calculation, there are are a few outliers that don't seem right to me. But regardless, it's good enough for a back-of-the-napkin calculation: Which teams have the "strongest links"?

So basically I went through and changed everybody's teams to reflect who they play for after the FA Frenzy this last weekend. Then, I calculated the sum goals against replacement generated by each team. This is what I got:

Team GAR
PIT 108.7
PHI 107.4
WPG 107.3
TOR 107.2
NSH 106.8
VGK 106.5
T.B 106.1
STL 104.6
CAR 104.1
FLA 101.2
MIN 98.8
S.J 98.7
ANA 97.1
WSH 96.1
BOS 95.7
CGY 92.3
CBJ 92.3
NYI 90.1
COL 87.6
DET 83.2
EDM 81.5
CHI 81.1
N.J 80.0
DAL 79.3
NYR 75.1
ARI 74.5
L.A 72.1
MTL 71.2
VAN 69.0
OTT 62.2
BUF 49.6

So, for Western Conference teams, the Blues are right up there with Winnipeg, Nashville, and Vegas. In terms of forwards, we're actually only behind Winnipeg, but Bouwmeester and Gunnarsson boat-anchor us down relative to other teams' d-groups.

A few more important things: Robby Fabbri isn't included in the chart. Depending on how he comes back (and I'm hoping for a Mattias Janmark-esque return), he could help close the gap between us and Winnipeg. Pat Maroon has a GAR of about 8, so he would help too. It might not be that simple though, because Laine's GAR in this chart is only 5.1, which seems incredibly low to me - it's on par with guys like Coyle and Guentzel.

Armstrong's moves really, really helped us this weekend. We went from Berglund, Sobotka, and Thompson (2.9, 0.2, No Score = 3.1) to Perron, Bozak, and O'Reilly (6.9, 9.9, 17.2 = 34). That is a ridiculous improvement in terms of strong links. The table above suggests that we are among the best in the league right now.

I think that Perron regressing and Fabbris production will likely even out leaving us probably very close to the same value.

Where does Allen/goalie come into this equation?

If you remove Gunnarsson and Bouwmeester and replace them with an average 5/6 defenseman what change does that give us?

Either way I think it’s very evident we have monumentally improved to those of us who actually know this team. For the outsiders it seems there are fewer who understand the improvements our moves have made.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

An interesting question is how far do these moves get us in terms of being contenders again? This is mostly purely speculative, but there is an element of predictivity involved as well.

Around the draft, Chace McCallum wrote an interesting article regarding draft values at LWOS. In it, he argues that the NHL is a "strong link" game, where elite pieces are more important than having a "high floor" team. A good team in a "weak link" sport, conversely, is only as good as its weakest link.

Using the NHL Draft To Acquire Strong Links and Draft Pick Value Charts - Last Word on Hockey

You can read more in depth at that article, but one of the things he attaches is a Goals Against Replacement (GAR) metric spreadsheet. I don't think it's a foolproof calculation, there are are a few outliers that don't seem right to me. But regardless, it's good enough for a back-of-the-napkin calculation: Which teams have the "strongest links"?

So basically I went through and changed everybody's teams to reflect who they play for after the FA Frenzy this last weekend. Then, I calculated the sum goals against replacement generated by each team. This is what I got:

Team GAR
PIT 108.7
PHI 107.4
WPG 107.3
TOR 107.2
NSH 106.8
VGK 106.5
T.B 106.1
STL 104.6
CAR 104.1
FLA 101.2
MIN 98.8
S.J 98.7
ANA 97.1
WSH 96.1
BOS 95.7
CGY 92.3
CBJ 92.3
NYI 90.1
COL 87.6
DET 83.2
EDM 81.5
CHI 81.1
N.J 80.0
DAL 79.3
NYR 75.1
ARI 74.5
L.A 72.1
MTL 71.2
VAN 69.0
OTT 62.2
BUF 49.6

So, for Western Conference teams, the Blues are right up there with Winnipeg, Nashville, and Vegas. In terms of forwards, we're actually only behind Winnipeg, but Bouwmeester and Gunnarsson boat-anchor us down relative to other teams' d-groups.

A few more important things: Robby Fabbri isn't included in the chart. Depending on how he comes back (and I'm hoping for a Mattias Janmark-esque return), he could help close the gap between us and Winnipeg. Pat Maroon has a GAR of about 8, so he would help too. It might not be that simple though, because Laine's GAR in this chart is only 5.1, which seems incredibly low to me - it's on par with guys like Coyle and Guentzel.

Armstrong's moves really, really helped us this weekend. We went from Berglund, Sobotka, and Thompson (2.9, 0.2, No Score = 3.1) to Perron, Bozak, and O'Reilly (6.9, 9.9, 17.2 = 34). That is a ridiculous improvement in terms of strong links. The table above suggests that we are among the best in the league right now.

And if we signed Brandon Davidson and Dylan DeMelo, cutting Gunnarsson and Bouwmeester for draft picks, we would be the best team in the league by GAR

 

[bleedblue1223]

And if we signed Brandon Davidson and Dylan DeMelo, cutting Gunnarsson and Bouwmeester for draft picks, we would be the best team in the league by GAR

Healthy Gunnar/Bouwmeester in a 3rd pairing role will have improved GAR.

 

[Majorityof1]

I've been watching highlights thinking maybe I'm wrong and honestly, all I've gathered is ROR can RIP a 1 timer.

The one time I don't do my own scouting and count on you, you let me down man. Never again lol

I looked through highlights and didn't see him down low much, but figured I was just seeing his goals, not his assists which make up most his points. Main point is I want to experiment with lines to see what works before going right to the "obvious" choice and forcing it to stick.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Healthy Gunnar/Bouwmeester in a 3rd pairing role will have improved GAR.

Gunnar
17-18: 0.07
16-17: 0.85
15-16: 0.37

Bouwmeester
17-18: 0.01
16-17: 0.03
15-16: 1.56

I’d say they’re both spent with little hope of recovery.

 

[BlueDream]

I've been watching highlights thinking maybe I'm wrong and honestly, all I've gathered is ROR can RIP a 1 timer. I'd still stand by my assessment of ROR. Tarasenko likes his uptempo rush attack game.

I'd like to see these lines

Schwartz Schenn Perron
Steen Orielly Thomas
Fabbri Bozak Tarasenko

Line 1: Perron proved he can play a top line roll, give it to him again.

Line 2: You'll never get the puck from them. Thomas adds speed and dynamic skating to those 2 slow pokes. He will drive the offense through his transition ability.

Line 3: as Majorityof1 said, I see Bozak stylistically fitting with Tarasenko, and Fabbri meshes with anything. This gives Tarasenko and Fabbri a RHS to set up bang bang plays and 1 timers.


This is Pittsburgh spreading the wealth quality, minus the HOF skill

We have so many damn line combos that look good that I keep changing my mind lol, but wow, I love those.

Once Thomas gains experience, talk about an elite defensive line that would be. I can't think of any better players for Thomas to learn from than Steen and O'Reilly. They'll be great.

And then you really have 2 lines with a ton of firepower.

It's so tough to say though. Yeo's job with these forwards should be pretty easy. I mean I'm still not against ROR and Vladdy together because I believe O'Reilly could have a Schenn-like 70-point year. I would not be surprised. He's been flirting with around 65 on a bad Sabres team. He's really good offensively, it just gets overlooked because he's a beast in the d-zone.

I'm just ecstatic for the season. ROR really changes this team.

 

[Mike Liut]

I don’t like the idea of moving Schenn or ROR from center.

 

[Mike Liut]

How important do you guys view a head coach in the NHL? Can a good team overcome a mediocre coach? Can a good coach overcome a mediocre team? I’m just wondering how important coaching really is.

 

[Dbrownss]

The one time I don't do my own scouting and count on you, you let me down man. Never again lol

I looked through highlights and didn't see him down low much, but figured I was just seeing his goals, not his assists which make up most his points. Main point is I want to experiment with lines to see what works before going right to the "obvious" choice and forcing it to stick.

I'm sure well see alot of movement outside of Schwartz and Schenn

 

[BlueDream]

I don’t like the idea of moving Schenn or ROR from center.

Agreed. They both need to stay there. Especially ROR. He is ELITE defensively and on the dot. If anyone moves, it should be Bozak. And even if he did he could still take some draws.

How important do you guys view a head coach in the NHL? Can a good team overcome a mediocre coach? Can a good coach overcome a mediocre team? I’m just wondering how important coaching really is.

That's the million dollar question right now. But other coaches who I don't consider that great have had success with good rosters (Paul Maurice in WPG, Dan Bylsma in PIT, Randy Carlyle in ANA just to name a few).

 

[DatDude44]

Guys, stop with the line combos.... we all know jaskin will be in our top 6

All jokes aside, I’ve never been more excited for blues hockey in my life. It’s the first time I’ve ever looked at our lineup and thought wow, we actually have zero slugs in our top9 and all of our top4 D can skate and move the puck. When Alex Steen is the new “overpaid whipping boy” you know your team is in phenomenal shape.

I also low key have this thought that if Kyrou just lights up camp and shows a commitment to the little things and details of the game, we could in turn move steen to a team with cap room(who still want to compete) for pure futures....then use those futures with Allen(and whatever else it’d take) for an elite goalie.....maybe Bob? Maybe lundqvist(if they retained 50%)

I’m sure Husso would be thrilled to be hanks future backup before he takes the #1 job over

And yes I’m aware Hanks struggled recently but cmon, that rangers D was putrid. It was actually ridiculous how much they’re tendys we’re left out to dry.

A motivated lundqvist in the playoffs with a blues team like this in front of him could be a match made in heaven.....and it wouldn’t interfere with Husso, it’d almost be perfect timing when hank would retire etc...

 

[Twisted Blue]

My 2 cents
Schwartz - Schenn - Tarasenko
Steen - ROR - Perron
Fabbri - Thomas - Bozak
Sosh - ? - Jaskin

 

[Novacain]

My 2 cents
Schwartz - Schenn - Tarasenko
Steen - ROR - Perron
Fabbri - Thomas - Bozak
Sosh - ? - Jaskin

Barbashev for 4th line C makes a lot of sense.

 

[A Real Barn Burner]

I know Barbashev was projected by many to be a 3C but still recall some thought he had 2C potential.

With the center depth we have in front of him now doubt he ever gets a chance here. Does anyone still think he has what it takes or will he just loose all value like Schmaltz buried on our 4th line

 

[Mike Liut]

I think keeping Schenn at center will help in re-signing him. He wants to play center. He’s good at it and hes happy there. Lets not move him from there.

 

[The Note in MI]

Guys, stop with the line combos.... we all know jaskin will be in our top 6

All jokes aside, I’ve never been more excited for blues hockey in my life. It’s the first time I’ve ever looked at our lineup and thought wow, we actually have zero slugs in our top9 and all of our top4 D can skate and move the puck. When Alex Steen is the new “overpaid whipping boy” you know your team is in phenomenal shape.

I also low key have this thought that if Kyrou just lights up camp and shows a commitment to the little things and details of the game, we could in turn move steen to a team with cap room(who still want to compete) for pure futures....then use those futures with Allen(and whatever else it’d take) for an elite goalie.....maybe Bob? Maybe lundqvist(if they retained 50%)

I’m sure Husso would be thrilled to be hanks future backup before he takes the #1 job over

And yes I’m aware Hanks struggled recently but cmon, that rangers D was putrid. It was actually ridiculous how much they’re tendys we’re left out to dry.

A motivated lundqvist in the playoffs with a blues team like this in front of him could be a match made in heaven.....and it wouldn’t interfere with Husso, it’d almost be perfect timing when hank would retire etc...

We basically need one of Kyrou or Fabbri to be a top 6 quality player IMO. Well I say need but we really don’t because Fabbri at 50% is still 3rd line

Fabbri plays top 6 and Kyrou in AHL
Schwartz Schenn Perron
Fabbri ROR Tarasenko
Steen Bozak Thomas
Soshnikov Barbashev Jaskin

Fabbri is 3rd line caliber and Kyrou is in AHL
Schwartz Schenn Perron
Steen ROR Tarasenko
Fabbri Bozak Thomas
Soshnikov Barbashev Jaskin

Kyrou breaks out and Fabbri is average
Schwartz Schenn Kyrou
Perron ROR Tarasenko
Fabbri Bozak Thomas
Steen Barbashev Jaskin

Kyrou breaks out and Fabbri is old Fabbri
Schwartz Schenn Kyrou
Fabbri ROR Tarasenko
Perron Bozak Thomas
Steen Barbashev Jaskin

Dream Lineup
Schwartz Schenn Kyrou
Fabbri Thomas Tarasenko
Steen ROR Perron
Barbashev Bozak Jaskin

As in my lines above I think there’s utility in spreading the offense. I also believe that your fourth line shouldn’t be purely an energy line but also skilled.

I also think there would be benefit of a purely shut down line with an all around line and scoring line. This would be ideal for matchups.

Schwartz Schenn Thomas
Fabbri Bozak Tarasenko
Steen ROR Perron
Soshnikov Barbashev Jaskin

I really wonder who is going to make the roster in camp. We have

Locks:
1. Tarasenko
2. Schwartz
3. Schenn
4. ROR
5. Bozak
6. Perron
7. Steen

Their spot to lose:
8. Fabbri
9. Soshnikov
10. Barbashev
11. Jaskin

Rookies:
12. Thomas
13. Kyrou
14. Blais
15. Sanford
16. Foley

Waivers pls:
17. Sundquist
18. Thorburn

We can only keep 14, 13 if we keep 8 D. Talk about some heavy competition. It’s an absolute tossup to me.

 

[Chief Steele]

the Army talks Thomas's spot is his to lose at this point.. I also don't see them moving him to the wing.. IMO Bozak or RoR will play in a wing before he does.. they are still able to take a important face off if needed. the rest of the rookies minus Foley will battle for the last spot with Sanford and Blais leading that pack since if Kyrou is in the NHL they want him playing in the top 9..

EDIT: the only reason I don't count Foley is he will get better minutes with the Rampage than sitting with the Blues.. Kostin and Foley will be battling it out along with Kyrou in the AHL to see who the first Forward is called up..

 

[Meatball]

@The Note in MI Your dream lineup is disgusting(ly good).

 

[tfriede2]

We basically need one of Kyrou or Fabbri to be a top 6 quality player IMO. Well I say need but we really don’t because Fabbri at 50% is still 3rd line

Fabbri plays top 6 and Kyrou in AHL
Schwartz Schenn Perron
Fabbri ROR Tarasenko
Steen Bozak Thomas
Soshnikov Barbashev Jaskin

Fabbri is 3rd line caliber and Kyrou is in AHL
Schwartz Schenn Perron
Steen ROR Tarasenko
Fabbri Bozak Thomas
Soshnikov Barbashev Jaskin

Kyrou breaks out and Fabbri is average
Schwartz Schenn Kyrou
Perron ROR Tarasenko
Fabbri Bozak Thomas
Steen Barbashev Jaskin

Kyrou breaks out and Fabbri is old Fabbri
Schwartz Schenn Kyrou
Fabbri ROR Tarasenko
Perron Bozak Thomas
Steen Barbashev Jaskin

Dream Lineup
Schwartz Schenn Kyrou
Fabbri Thomas Tarasenko
Steen ROR Perron
Barbashev Bozak Jaskin

As in my lines above I think there’s utility in spreading the offense. I also believe that your fourth line shouldn’t be purely an energy line but also skilled.

I also think there would be benefit of a purely shut down line with an all around line and scoring line. This would be ideal for matchups.

Schwartz Schenn Thomas
Fabbri Bozak Tarasenko
Steen ROR Perron
Soshnikov Barbashev Jaskin

I really wonder who is going to make the roster in camp. We have

Locks:
1. Tarasenko
2. Schwartz
3. Schenn
4. ROR
5. Bozak
6. Perron
7. Steen

Their spot to lose:
8. Fabbri
9. Soshnikov
10. Barbashev
11. Jaskin

Rookies:
12. Thomas
13. Kyrou
14. Blais
15. Sanford
16. Foley

Waivers pls:
17. Sundquist
18. Thorburn

We can only keep 14, 13 if we keep 8 D. Talk about some heavy competition. It’s an absolute tossup to me.

I literally would have put down those exact line combos for each of your scenarios. Well done, haha.

 

[tfriede2]

Looking at capfriendly, it says that Thomas is exempt from the 50 player contract limit...he's the only player in which it says that. Anyone know why that is?

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Looking at capfriendly, it says that Thomas is exempt from the 50 player contract limit...he's the only player in which it says that. Anyone know why that is?

If he goes back to juniors doesn't his contract slide?

 

[BlueDream]

Has our forum ever been this busy on July 3rd? Place is absolutely poppin.

I can't wait for the season.

 

[WeWentBlues]

I am so damn excited for next season and I have a hunch that Armstrong isn't done.

Eager to hear about extensions for Edmundson, Fabbri, Schmaltz, Jaskin, Sundqvist.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Has our forum ever been this busy on July 3rd? Place is absolutely poppin.

I can't wait for the season.

When we signed Stastny.

 

[MissouriMook]

Looking at capfriendly, it says that Thomas is exempt from the 50 player contract limit...he's the only player in which it says that. Anyone know why that is?

Under 20 and still eligible to go back to junior. I think he loses that when he plays his 10th NHL game.

Kostin is under 20, but played in the AHL last year so he is not excludable. Our 2018 draftees, when and if they sign, will be added to the exempt list as long as they are still under 20. Not sure when Perunovich turns 20.