Blues Discussion Thread 2018-2019

[warrior67]

THIS ^^^

Look at the center market. After Tavares, Stastny is probably top center available. Thornton is on there, but I doubt he leaves the Sharks. That leaves Stastny, Bozak, Plekanec, and Fillpula as top C available on FA.

Yeah I agree, as long as we can get him at a more reasonable cap hit/term then it's a good consolation prize for our top 6 given we don't get Tavares or another center in a trade. Plus we all know what we are getting, so I feel like there is less risk of failure in our system than a UFA like Bozak has. A 3 year deal would be a great stop gap for Thomas' pro development as well.

 

[stl76]

Agreed. But if they wind up making the FInal and losing in 6, I could see him leaving a lot of money on the table to chase a Cup. I'm not sure how many true contenders will be offering him 4 years at market value AAV.

Yeah, I get the feeling Paul really wants to win a cup, and he seems like the type of guy who would be willing to take a slight discount to do so. He has made somewhere between 60-65 million dollars (very rough estimate) so far in his career. He's gonna be aight regardless. If he can make another 24 mill playing for an ok team with a long shot at winning...I mean, that's 24 million dollars...it wouldn't shock me if he took the money. BUT if the jets or another contender offered him, say, 15 mill and a much better chance to win, I have to think he would be very tempted. Neither he nor his father have won a cup, despite long and successful NHL careers. 9 million is a lot to leave on the table for sure, but when you've already made 60+ mill, it probably becomes slightly easier to stomach.

All the above numbers are hypothetical, I reached the 60-65 mill range multiplying his AAV x years in Colorado + St. Louis (6.6x5 + 7x4 = 61), which doesn't include his ELC. The 24 and 15 mill are both basically pulled from thin air (6x4 or 3.75x4). Point is, it's not too crazy to think Paul might take a discount to win IMO.

 

[TheChamber91]

Overall, I think our d core is fine (I just wish parayko would use his body more), but we have a glaring hole at 1/2C. I hope we shoot our shot with Tavares, the way I see it we should be top 5 teams on his list. However, we have to acknowledge that Tavares is a long shot and we need a solid back up plan. I'm against stastny coming back, simply because I think it's time to move on and try a new approach. I support Bozak as a 2C out of the other options, and he could easily be moved down to the third line if Thomas excels. I think if we give Thomas and Kyrou some real opportunities next year we can maybe have a real third line

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Overall, I think our d core is fine (I just wish parayko would use his body more), but we have a glaring hole at 1/2C. I hope we shoot our shot with Tavares, the way I see it we should be top 5 teams on his list. However, we have to acknowledge that Tavares is a long shot and we need a solid back up plan. I'm against stastny coming back, simply because I think it's time to move on and try a new approach. I support Bozak as a 2C out of the other options, and he could easily be moved down to the third line if Thomas excels. I think if we give Thomas and Kyrou some real opportunities next year we can maybe have a real third line

I’d rather trade for a 2C over signing Bozak. I think Army is gonna get that at the draft, then still try and get JT. If we don’t get him, grab another top 6 guy instead.

 

[Chojin]

Aside from Tavares, there aren't any free agent centers that'll move the needle enough relative to their cost. Unless something like the Schenn deal comes around again, we're probably better off seeing how our prospects pan out.

 

[MissouriMook]

I think the most intriguing name to watch from the standpoint of trading for a Top 6 center is Tyler Johnson. His NTC kicks in July 1, so if Yzerman decides to move him it will likely be at the draft. They have JT Miller to sign this offseason and Chris Kunitz to re-sign or replace. The big money needs to free up next offseason, however, as Kucherov and Point will be due substantial raises and they will also need to spend big to retain guys like McDonagh and Stralman.

Johnson fits our need (still speedy, RS C/RW) and is at the high end of the age of our core group as he will not turn 28 until later this summer. He has 6 years left on a deal that is very reasonable, and he has always been a strong playoff performer. I just wonder what it will cost (in addition to the WPG 1st) to acquire him.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Tage+WPG 1st+?

 

[tfriede2]

Tage+WPG 1st+?

They're going to be in a bit of a bind with the cap. They might let Sustr go, and likely Kunitz as well, but they'll need to give Miller a $2 mil or so raise. WPG 1st would be included for sure, but I'm not sure what else would be required. Ideally the Blues would like to unload a bit of salary in return, so you're looking at Sobotka as the obvious choice - TB would still be saving over $1.5 mil in cap space with Sobotka signed for just 2 more years, and he could easily be their 3rd line center with Miller as their 2nd line center. As for the plus required on top of that, perhaps the Blues do have to add a prospect like Thompson in order to unload Sobotka as well (Sobotka alone still has value, but with a team like TB who is up against the cap, they would likely want a better prospect in return for taking a player with a bit of salary).

Johnson is a solid 2nd line center. His 70 point season appears to be an outlier, as otherwise he's about a 50 point player (over the past 5 seasons, Johnson paced for 50, 77, 45, 56, and 50 points per season). That's about the same amount of production that Stastny produced for us (51, 63, 50, 53 points per season). Given that Johnson is RH, that adds a bit more value. At $5 mil per season over the next 6 seasons (through age 33), I don't think you're looking at a contract that you're regretting, as long as Johnson keeps his historical ppg pace. He would lock down the 2nd center position, with Thomas having the potential to take over that position within the next couple of years, sliding Johnson down to the 3rd line.

If I were DA, I would certainly start with WPG 1st + Sobotka, and I'm sure TB would counter with an addition of one of Kostin/Thompson (Kyrou and Thomas are a no go). Perhaps DA could get TB down to a lesser prospect, but who knows. I think this is a move DA will certainly consider, though, over the summer.

By substituting Sobotka with Johnson, that increases the cap hit by just $1.5 mil, still giving the Blues a shot at going after JT.

Could you imagine Tavares/Schenn/Johnson down the middle over the next 6 years (assuming Schenn is signed)? Or Tavares/Johnson/Thomas, with Schenn moving to RW at some point? That would be incredible.

Of course, Tavares is a pipedream, but if that happens, I'd send Thompson + WPG 1st + Sobotka for Johnson all day long - that opens our window immediately and keeps it open for the next 5+ years.

I'll stop daydreaming now...

 

[BlueDream]

Aside from Tavares, there aren't any free agent centers that'll move the needle enough relative to their cost. Unless something like the Schenn deal comes around again, we're probably better off seeing how our prospects pan out.

So your plan is to throw Thomas in as the 2C right away?

I don’t really understand that line of thinking. No, we wouldn’t be better off. The Blues need to get somebody because after Schenn they don’t currently have anybody capable of filling that role.

The Blues don’t have the luxury of just saying “aw shucks, we tried” if they miss out on Tavares. Then they might have to go the trade route, but the Blues absolutely need to add a guy from outside the organization. They arent just handing spots to prospects...

 

[kimzey59]

I’d rather trade for a 2C over signing Bozak. I think Army is gonna get that at the draft, then still try and get JT. If we don’t get him, grab another top 6 guy instead.

While I'm inclined to agree; the one stipulation I would add is that IF we can somehow land JVR I'd want Bozak as our move at C. Bozak and JVR have established chemistry together and as a tandem they would allow you to give Kyrou a spot on either of the top 2 lines(Schwartz/Schenn and JVR/Bozak would both be able to handle a "3rd wheel" type 3rd player on their line).

IF you don't land JVR, I'd agree that we should look elsewhere for the #2 C.

 

[Chojin]

So your plan is to throw Thomas in as the 2C right away?

Not necessarily. We may just need to accept that we'll be a bubble team for a few years and try to nab an upgrade when the time is right. If our goal is to contend right away, then yeah, we *need* to add a guy, but I feel like we'd be better of doing the best we can while keeping enough cap flexibility to make the right move when one comes along. Who knows, maybe something comes along this offseason, but there's no sense in trying to force it. If we have to suffer through a few years of Sobotka/Berglund/Steen/<insert mediocre top 9 center here>, so be it.

 

[The Note]

Not necessarily. We may just need to accept that we'll be a bubble team for a few years and try to nab an upgrade when the time is right. If our goal is to contend right away, then yeah, we *need* to add a guy, but I feel like we'd be better of doing the best we can while keeping enough cap flexibility to make the right move when one comes along. Who knows, maybe something comes along this offseason, but there's no sense in trying to force it. If we have to suffer through a few years of Sobotka/Berglund/Steen/<insert mediocre top 9 center here>, so be it.

When 3 of your core players will be due for new contracts in the next 3 years, you can’t just say “eh if we suck we suck” and wait. They should absolutely be active in trying to upgrade the team starting at the draft this year.

 

[Chojin]

When 3 of your core players will be due for new contracts in the next 3 years, you can’t just say “eh if we suck we suck” and wait. They should absolutely be active in trying to upgrade the team starting at the draft this year.

They're not mutually exclusive. You can absolutely expect to be mediocre while you look for an upgrade that really moves the needle, as opposed to letting a false sense of urgency drive you to make bad decisions that limit your flexibility.

 

[stl76]

They're going to be in a bit of a bind with the cap. They might let Sustr go, and likely Kunitz as well, but they'll need to give Miller a $2 mil or so raise. WPG 1st would be included for sure, but I'm not sure what else would be required. Ideally the Blues would like to unload a bit of salary in return, so you're looking at Sobotka as the obvious choice - TB would still be saving over $1.5 mil in cap space with Sobotka signed for just 2 more years, and he could easily be their 3rd line center with Miller as their 2nd line center. As for the plus required on top of that, perhaps the Blues do have to add a prospect like Thompson in order to unload Sobotka as well (Sobotka alone still has value, but with a team like TB who is up against the cap, they would likely want a better prospect in return for taking a player with a bit of salary).

Johnson is a solid 2nd line center. His 70 point season appears to be an outlier, as otherwise he's about a 50 point player (over the past 5 seasons, Johnson paced for 50, 77, 45, 56, and 50 points per season). That's about the same amount of production that Stastny produced for us (51, 63, 50, 53 points per season). Given that Johnson is RH, that adds a bit more value. At $5 mil per season over the next 6 seasons (through age 33), I don't think you're looking at a contract that you're regretting, as long as Johnson keeps his historical ppg pace. He would lock down the 2nd center position, with Thomas having the potential to take over that position within the next couple of years, sliding Johnson down to the 3rd line.

If I were DA, I would certainly start with WPG 1st + Sobotka, and I'm sure TB would counter with an addition of one of Kostin/Thompson (Kyrou and Thomas are a no go). Perhaps DA could get TB down to a lesser prospect, but who knows. I think this is a move DA will certainly consider, though, over the summer.

By substituting Sobotka with Johnson, that increases the cap hit by just $1.5 mil, still giving the Blues a shot at going after JT.

Could you imagine Tavares/Schenn/Johnson down the middle over the next 6 years (assuming Schenn is signed)? Or Tavares/Johnson/Thomas, with Schenn moving to RW at some point? That would be incredible.

Of course, Tavares is a pipedream, but if that happens, I'd send Thompson + WPG 1st + Sobotka for Johnson all day long - that opens our window immediately and keeps it open for the next 5+ years.

I'll stop daydreaming now...

Just a quick point of clarification, the only reason Johnson MAY be available is the emergence of Brayden Point. He is there 2C now and in the future. Miller is probably viewed by them as their younger version of Steen (for lack of a better comparison), a winger that can play C if necessary.

I'm not sure what exactly TB would be looking for in return for Johnson, but there are a couple things we do know:

1) they are in "win-now" with their current roster and guys like Kucherov, Point, Stralman, and McDonagh needing new contracts after next season. In other words, cap space is going to be an issue in 2 years.

2) they are most likely set for next season in goal and on defense.

I don't think Sobotka + Thompson + 1st is going to be enough for TJ. Given TB would likely be looking to shed more salary than 1.5M and will need cap space in 2 years, I think we'd have an easier time trying to move Sobotka in a separate deal. TB would probably be looking for futures in return for TJ, preferably NHL ready and on ELC. As for what types of futures, I would start by looking at what they gave up in the McDonagh deal under the assumption they would like to replenish their prospect pool...so, probably center/defense prospects and/or 1st and 2nd round picks.

 

[tfriede2]

Just a quick point of clarification, the only reason Johnson MAY be available is the emergence of Brayden Point. He is there 2C now and in the future. Miller is probably viewed by them as their younger version of Steen (for lack of a better comparison), a winger that can play C if necessary.

I'm not sure what exactly TB would be looking for in return for Johnson, but there are a couple things we do know:

1) they are in "win-now" with their current roster and guys like Kucherov, Point, Stralman, and McDonagh needing new contracts after next season. In other words, cap space is going to be an issue in 2 years.

2) they are most likely set for next season in goal and on defense.

I don't think Sobotka + Thompson + 1st is going to be enough for TJ. Given TB would likely be looking to shed more salary than 1.5M and will need cap space in 2 years, I think we'd have an easier time trying to move Sobotka in a separate deal. TB would probably be looking for futures in return for TJ, preferably NHL ready and on ELC. As for what types of futures, I would start by looking at what they gave up in the McDonagh deal under the assumption they would like to replenish their prospect pool...so, probably center/defense prospects and/or 1st and 2nd round picks.

Ah, I didn't realize Point was already playing C. Either way, they have replacements for Johnson.

I don't think I'd give up much more than 1st and one of Kostin/Thompson, if Sobotka isn't involved as well. It's difficult to assess the McDonagh trade as a point of reference, since Miller was involved. Johnson isn't a star player who would receive a star-like return, IMO. But, I could be wrong. The Schenn deal is actually more of a decent baseline point of reference, and he "only" returned two first round picks, with Lehtera being dumped; for that reason, I think 1st + Thompson is in the right ballpark.

 

[stl76]

Ah, I didn't realize Point was already playing C. Either way, they have replacements for Johnson.

I don't think I'd give up much more than 1st and one of Kostin/Thompson, if Sobotka isn't involved as well. It's difficult to assess the McDonagh trade as a point of reference, since Miller was involved. Johnson isn't a star player who would receive a star-like return, IMO. But, I could be wrong. The Schenn deal is actually more of a decent baseline point of reference, and he "only" returned two first round picks, with Lehtera being dumped; for that reason, I think 1st + Thompson is in the right ballpark.

Yeah I was trying to use the McDonagh trade as a reference for the type of assets they'd likely be looking for more than for value.

In terms of value, I think you're right that the Schenn deal is a decent baseline. TB fans would probably argue that Johnson is a proven center who is playing wing vs Schenn was a proven winger who might be able to play center. There probably is some difference in value there based on position, not sure how much really tho. The bigger difference in value would probably come from contract term (5 vs 3 years).

My guess is TB would ask for 1st + Thompson/Kostin + an additional 2nd or good prospect.

 

[The Note]

They're not mutually exclusive. You can absolutely expect to be mediocre while you look for an upgrade that really moves the needle, as opposed to letting a false sense of urgency drive you to make bad decisions that limit your flexibility.

I’m not saying they need to go out and sign a couple high-priced UFA (barring the obvious exception.) But I disagree with the idea the Blues should be content to be mediocre the next couple of seasons. With the foundation they have and the depth of prospects they should be looking to address the top 6 sooner rather than later.

 

[EastonBlues22]

They're going to be in a bit of a bind with the cap. They might let Sustr go, and likely Kunitz as well, but they'll need to give Miller a $2 mil or so raise. WPG 1st would be included for sure, but I'm not sure what else would be required. Ideally the Blues would like to unload a bit of salary in return, so you're looking at Sobotka as the obvious choice - TB would still be saving over $1.5 mil in cap space with Sobotka signed for just 2 more years, and he could easily be their 3rd line center with Miller as their 2nd line center. As for the plus required on top of that, perhaps the Blues do have to add a prospect like Thompson in order to unload Sobotka as well (Sobotka alone still has value, but with a team like TB who is up against the cap, they would likely want a better prospect in return for taking a player with a bit of salary).

Johnson is a solid 2nd line center. His 70 point season appears to be an outlier, as otherwise he's about a 50 point player (over the past 5 seasons, Johnson paced for 50, 77, 45, 56, and 50 points per season). That's about the same amount of production that Stastny produced for us (51, 63, 50, 53 points per season). Given that Johnson is RH, that adds a bit more value. At $5 mil per season over the next 6 seasons (through age 33), I don't think you're looking at a contract that you're regretting, as long as Johnson keeps his historical ppg pace. He would lock down the 2nd center position, with Thomas having the potential to take over that position within the next couple of years, sliding Johnson down to the 3rd line.

If I were DA, I would certainly start with WPG 1st + Sobotka, and I'm sure TB would counter with an addition of one of Kostin/Thompson (Kyrou and Thomas are a no go). Perhaps DA could get TB down to a lesser prospect, but who knows. I think this is a move DA will certainly consider, though, over the summer.

By substituting Sobotka with Johnson, that increases the cap hit by just $1.5 mil, still giving the Blues a shot at going after JT.

Could you imagine Tavares/Schenn/Johnson down the middle over the next 6 years (assuming Schenn is signed)? Or Tavares/Johnson/Thomas, with Schenn moving to RW at some point? That would be incredible.

Of course, Tavares is a pipedream, but if that happens, I'd send Thompson + WPG 1st + Sobotka for Johnson all day long - that opens our window immediately and keeps it open for the next 5+ years.

I'll stop daydreaming now...

Tampa has a number of good winger prospects, and has a pretty good prospect pool in general. They are also firmly in "win now" mode. I don't think they move Johnson without a good deal of incentive for doing so, and I'm just not seeing that incentive for them in this deal.

Say for the sake of argument that they feel like they have to move Johnson for some reason. At the very least, they won't need to take salary back to find a trade partner. Johnson is only paid $500k more than Berglund, and he's signed through a reasonable age. Someone would happily take that on as is to give Tampa full cap relief along with fair value in futures.

Edit: This ground seems to have been covered since I opened this tab.

 

[PelleLindbergh]

What to expect from the blues defence next year.

What to Expect from the St. Louis Blues Defence Next Year - Last Word on Hockey

What are your thoughts on what to expect from Dunn next year? 2nd pairing with Parayko like the article says and he is a good option on the 1st PP unit.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Just something to keep in mind as we’re going through all of this, next year’s UFA class is waaay better than this year’s. Next year’s draft is also better.

 

[BlueDream]

Just something to keep in mind as we’re going through all of this, next year’s UFA class is waaay better than this year’s. Next year’s draft is also better.

Isn’t next year’s FA class always better? The fact is, half those guys will be re-signed before then.

This year’s class is actually pretty decent in terms of top talent.

 

[LastWordArmy]

What are your thoughts on what to expect from Dunn next year? 2nd pairing with Parayko like the article says and he is a good option on the 1st PP unit.

I didnt write the article... but i personally think Dunn is a great young player. I think he takes a big jump as he gains experience. I could see 30 points in his second year if he gets the secondary pp time. More if he gets the first unit.

 

[LastWordArmy]

Just something to keep in mind as we’re going through all of this, next year’s UFA class is waaay better than this year’s. Next year’s draft is also better.

The next free agent class always looks better than the current one. Wait til a bunch bunof those players re-sign with their teams. Its never as deep as it is 14 months out.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

So the 2019 draft is better than the 2018 draft. Awesome! Now I can't wait to hear how the 2020 draft is even better than the 2019 draft.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

So the 2019 draft is better than the 2018 draft. Awesome! Now I can't wait to hear how the 2020 draft is even better than the 2019 draft.

It actually seems halfway decent too lol. Lafrenniere, baby!