Prospect Info: Blues 2024-2025 Prospect Thread

[Majorityof1]

I know we've disagreed on Jiricek in the past, which is likely the crux of the issue. But I do think there's a lot put into Jiricek being a blue chip, 1st pairing prospect and Lindstein being a safer, less likely 1st pairing prospect. But when you look at the classes they were in, I think it's much more likely that they are in the same tier of prospect. I think in 2023, Jiricek definitely goes after ASP, and maybe after Bonk, maybe before. I'm not sure. I think if you put Lindstein without his year of development in the 2024 class that he's definitely in that same 16-22 range. I think they're the same tier prospect to begin with, but one is coming off a lost season and one is coming off a big season. So while it is easier to project Lindstein with a year in the rearview, I don't think their ceilings are all that different to begin with.

I agree they are the same tier. But if they have the same ceiling and Lindstein was safer, how would they be on the same tier? Linstein would be a higher tier. Jiricek is only on that tier due to hs uncertainty. His ceiling is higher but that uncertainty drops him down a tier to be on Lindsteins tier

 

[sfvega]

I agree they are the same tier. But if they have the same ceiling and Lindstein was safer, how would they be on the same tier? Linstein would be a higher tier. Jiricek is only on that tier due to hs uncertainty. His ceiling is higher but that uncertainty drops him down a tier to be on Lindsteins tier

Tier, to me, is talent level. Being safer doesn't bring you up or down a tier. Stenberg is safer than Snuggy, Yager is safer than Oliver Moore, Dickinson is safer than Silayev, that doesn't bump them up any more.

Again, this comes down to a difference in viewpoint on Jiricek. I don't think he was this amazing steal at 16. I do think Lindstein was a bit of a steal where he went, but it was a loaded year so it would have been really hard to crack the top 20. I think they're comparable, but we've seen more of Lindstein and he's further along.

I feel like this is an unfair comparison in terms of overall ability but from my watching of Lindstein's game he reminds me a lot of Nick Lidstrom in how he plays hockey. Very calm, not really flashy but extremely effective. It does not surprise me that many "experts" don't rank him highly as they seemingly always lean more towards flash then substance.

Which is wild, right? Because it seems like the more toolsy guys are the ones who end up washing out.

 

[BlueMed]

Tier, to me, is talent level. Being safer doesn't bring you up or down a tier. Stenberg is safer than Snuggy, Yager is safer than Oliver Moore, Dickinson is safer than Silayev, that doesn't bump them up any more.

Again, this comes down to a difference in viewpoint on Jiricek. I don't think he was this amazing steal at 16. I do think Lindstein was a bit of a steal where he went, but it was a loaded year so it would have been really hard to crack the top 20. I think they're comparable, but we've seen more of Lindstein and he's further along.


Which is wild, right? Because it seems like the more toolsy guys are the ones who end up washing out.

Where do you think Jiricek would have been drafted had his ACL not torn?

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Lindstein's further along in his development and did not miss a year of development like Jirecek. So, yeah, of course. But Jiricek has physical skills that will make it easier for him. We'll have to wait and see if his IQ progresses. And I think there is room to improve his skating which is already good as well.

Linstein is a safer bet so it's easier to project him to imagine him hitting even above his ceiling. He played more and we got to see him do well. We have seen less of Jiricek, and he is younger, and didn't play in WJC against his peer group. He is less certain. But I think his ceiling is higher because of his raw skills and abilities

Lindstein aside, I agree with you on Jiricek. He seems fairly raw, and missing almost all year doesn't help, but I think he has 1d upside. I am fairly skeptical he will hit that, but I think the likelihood he is legit top 4d is pretty good.

 

[Blanick]

Where do you think Jiricek would have been drafted had his ACL not torn?

Before the year started he was projected as a top10 pick. Now outside of the top 2-3 players of every draft their is usually a fair amount of fluidity in those picks. It is so hard for me to judge Jiricek because of the injury. The skill is undeniable but it's now on him to bounce back from the injury and prove it, this year of development is crucial for him.

 

[sfvega]

Where do you think Jiricek would have been drafted had his ACL not torn?

We had talked about this at one point in the draft thread, I don't think he fell at all. I remember discussing around the time of his injury that worst case scenario draft-slot wise we would get Jiricek at 14, which would be solid but I was hoping for a bigger fish. Then about a week before the draft I was talking to perryturnbull fan about how weird it was that his draft projections hadn't dropped more. He draft stock stayed really stable IMO, which never happens. But pre-injury I believe most mocks had him outside of the top 8-10, which I agreed with. I saw one or two at 10, mostly between the 12-16 range and he ended up at 16.

 

[Majorityof1]

Tier, to me, is talent level. Being safer doesn't bring you up or down a tier. Stenberg is safer than Snuggy, Yager is safer than Oliver Moore, Dickinson is safer than Silayev, that doesn't bump them up any more.

Again, this comes down to a difference in viewpoint on Jiricek. I don't think he was this amazing steal at 16. I do think Lindstein was a bit of a steal where he went, but it was a loaded year so it would have been really hard to crack the top 20. I think they're comparable, but we've seen more of Lindstein and he's further

I don't think that's not what tiers are when talking about prospects and drafting in common parlance. Tiers are guys that have roughly the same value. If you get player A, or player B, your roughly just as happy because they are both in the same tier. If you got Player C though, you are less happy because he is a tier down.

If there are two players with equal ceilings, skills etc but one is much more certain, you would not be equally happy to get the riskier one. So they wouldn't be on the same tier on your draft board So while your welcome to think of and use tier however you want, in common prospect parlance I don't think it ignores risk/liklihood of hitting.

 

[sfvega]

I don't think that's not what tiers are when talking about prospects and drafting in common parlance. Tiers are guys that have roughly the same value. If you get player A, or player B, your roughly just as happy because they are both in the same tier. If you got Player C though, you are less happy because he is a tier down.

If there are two players with equal ceilings, skills etc but one is much more certain, you would not be equally happy to get the riskier one. So they wouldn't be on the same tier on your draft board So while your welcome to think of and use tier however you want, in common prospect parlance I don't think it ignores risk/liklihood of hitting.

What is "much more certain" relative to prospects? We have an idea, but everyone has had their big misses.

Value does not exist in a vacuum. I just gave you other examples of guys who I believe are the same talent level, but different ideas of safe. But they're the same tier, at least IMO. There's no real way to say Lindstein IS hitting, so he's bumped up a tier or let's say Jiricek stayed healthy and took a step forward last year.

We're at where we're at. I think there's a very easy argument to be made that their draft stocks, outside of their given class, were close. Where they're both at right now, I personally feel more comfortable projecting Lindstein in 1st pairing. You disagree, because you value Jiricek very highly. We talked in a big f***ing circle. Happy?

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I don't think that's not what tiers are when talking about prospects and drafting in common parlance. Tiers are guys that have roughly the same value. If you get player A, or player B, your roughly just as happy because they are both in the same tier. If you got Player C though, you are less happy because he is a tier down.

If there are two players with equal ceilings, skills etc but one is much more certain, you would not be equally happy to get the riskier one. So they wouldn't be on the same tier on your draft board So while your welcome to think of and use tier however you want, in common prospect parlance I don't think it ignores risk/liklihood of hitting.

Yes, that sounds like what I think most folks mean by tiers. Put another way, we can think of tiers as players having similar projected value. If you were to model out their possible career projections and then assign a projected value, the guys on same tier would have roughly the same projected value.

For example, one player may have higher upside but less chance of reaching it, while another has a higher floor but less upside. Or maybe they have similar upside but different distribution of probabilities. There are all kinds of possible scenarios, but if the total value projections are close, they are on the same tier.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Where do you think Jiricek would have been drafted had his ACL not torn?

It’s really hard to say as we don’t know how the rest of his season would’ve gone. He reportedly had a good Hlinka-Gretzky tourney but was then just so-so in the Czech Extraliga and their Jr league. Then he blew out his ACL the first game of the WJC. Would he have really picked it up the 2nd half of the season? Would he have not really progressed and people start questioning him and his stock drops? Who knows. He’s a pretty big unknown IMO.

Hopefully he has a good season this year. Not sure he’s even on the ice yet though. He didn’t play in any of the preseason games for the Czech U20 team.

 

[blueper]

I was surprised to see Dvorsky only slotted in the depth category. I think he does a pretty good job covering the league as a whole, but I can understand why certain fans feel like he is underselling their prospects a bit. For instance, on his Anaheim pyramid, he has Cutter Gauthier and Beckett Sennecke in the depth category too. Those are both type 5 picks in their respective drafts and probably have the skill level to be future core players (at least Anaheim hopes so). His Chicago pyramid includes Frank Nazar and Oliver Moore in the core category, and I wouldn't place either of those players above Dvorsky. Recently, the OHL conducted a coach's poll, and Dvorksy finished 1st in best shot and best stickhandling as well as 2nd in smartest player. At the draft, his player comparison was William Karlsson due to his skating (who just posted 30 goals and 30 assists in 70 games by the way). I also wouldn't be surprised if he ends up better than that.

I am high on Dvorsky too. A guy who knows some of the Blues front office said he heard Al MacInnis compare Dvorsky to Rod BrindAmour. He mentioned that he hasn't ever heard MacInnis give out a complimentary comparison about any other prospect before.

 

[joe galiba]

I am high on Dvorsky too. A guy who knows some of the Blues front office said he heard Al MacInnis compare Dvorsky to Rod BrindAmour. He mentioned that he hasn't ever heard MacInnis give out a complimentary comparison about any other prospect before.

good thing Brian Sutter and Jack Quinn are no longer around

 

[ds774622]

Tier, to me, is talent level. Being safer doesn't bring you up or down a tier. Stenberg is safer than Snuggy, Yager is safer than Oliver Moore, Dickinson is safer than Silayev, that doesn't bump them up any more.

Again, this comes down to a difference in viewpoint on Jiricek. I don't think he was this amazing steal at 16. I do think Lindstein was a bit of a steal where he went, but it was a loaded year so it would have been really hard to crack the top 20. I think they're comparable, but we've seen more of Lindstein and he's further along.


Which is wild, right? Because it seems like the more toolsy guys are the ones who end up washing out.

I often forget this part about the 2023 draft class. It was considered a very strong draft, a draft in which we had three first round picks. Comparing pick 25 from one year to pick 10 in another year...and then projecting value requires so much more context and subjectivity. Where could Dvorsky have gone in a weaker draft year?

In a year or two, with more development especially for Stenberg and Lindstein, there's a better probability for our prospects to prove their floor is more than just bottom 6 or bottom pair. Just based on the strong draft year and development to date, those late 2023 first round picks have insane value in retrospect. I loved the Stenberg pick at the time since Perreault was off the board, and I'm coming around on Lindstein being an absolute steal at 29.

 

[Celtic Note]

I am high on Dvorsky too. A guy who knows some of the Blues front office said he heard Al MacInnis compare Dvorsky to Rod BrindAmour. He mentioned that he hasn't ever heard MacInnis give out a complimentary comparison about any other prospect before.

I think Dvo plays the game a bit like Rod. So it’s not a bad comparison in that sense.

But Rod also had a 97 point season and near the end of his career a 82 point one. I am not sure we can fairly expect Dvo to hit those peaks. If he is getting 55-60 points per season, I will be happy. Anything more than that is icing on the cake IMO.

 

[blueper]

I think Dvo plays the game a bit like Rod. So it’s not a bad comparison on that sense.

But Rod also had a 97 point season and near the end of his career and 82 point one. I am not sure we can fairly expect Dvo to hit those peaks. If he is getting 55-60 points per season, I will be happy. Anything more than that is icing on the cake IMO.

I wouldn't expect it either. But wouldn't it be cool??? JK
BTW, I didn't compare Dvo to anyone. I'm just passing along gossip.
I haven't seen anything but highlights from Dvo.

 

[blue zone]

It’s really hard to say as we don’t know how the rest of his season would’ve gone. He reportedly had a good Hlinka-Gretzky tourney but was then just so-so in the Czech Extraliga and their Jr league. Then he blew out his ACL the first game of the WJC. Would he have really picked it up the 2nd half of the season? Would he have not really progressed and people start questioning him and his stock drops? Who knows. He’s a pretty big unknown IMO.

Hopefully he has a good season this year. Not sure he’s even on the ice yet though. He didn’t play in any of the preseason games for the Czech U20 team.

I think the difficulty on Jiricek is similar to what we saw on Dvorsky in the SHL. It's hard to impress from the bench. Korotky seems somewhat similar because he was on a loaded MHL team, and was supposedly not a top line guy.
It's hard to evaluate players that are not being given comparable opportunity. This draft for the Blues was filled with players that for one reason or another would be hard evaluations.
Jiricek- injury
Ralph- competition
Fischer-bad team
Mrsic-pp points compared to total/ extra playing time on strong team with Lindstrom out.
Dorion- bad team
Korotky- deep team/ system
Sometimes you just have to trust our drafting group

 

[Mike Liut]

Dvo is going to be more like Peter Forsberg

 

[BlueMed]

Army's philosophy on sending his young prospects to the AHL vs NHL around 1:32:55 mark.

This leads me to believe...
Dvorsky will go to the AHL
Dean will likely go to the AHL

Around 1:57:30, Army mentions that Bolduc will be competing for a top 6 spot and not a 3rd or 4th line spot. I have to wonder if he gets some looks as a RW because of his one-timer and availability on the right side.

 

[BlueMed]

Dvo is going to be more like Peter Forsberg

Honestly, I was getting Sakic vibes from Dvorsky not just from the way he carries himself but also his strengths/weaknesses. Sakic was drafted 15th overall in the 1987 draft due to his average size and lack of quickness. That's been the same knock on Dvorksy from multiple scouts, but both players have an incredible release and accuracy on their shots. To be totally clear, we're talking stylistically here and not necessarily from a production or accolades standpoint.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Army's philosophy on sending his young prospects to the AHL vs NHL around 1:32:55 mark.

This leads me to believe...
Dvorsky will go to the AHL
Dean will likely go to the AHL

Around 1:57:30, Army mentions that Bolduc will be competing for a top 6 spot and not a 3rd or 4th line spot. I have to wonder if he gets some looks as a RW because of his one-timer and availability on the right side.

His flexibility emphatically says, Yes!

Bolduc needs to have a quick, confident start cuz it seems comes out slowly over the season and ends on a strong note.

This TC is the most competitive ever, so if he wants to play, then he is going to have to 'fight' early and often.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Honestly, I was getting Sakic vibes from Dvorsky not just from the way he carries himself but also his strengths/weaknesses. Sakic was drafted 15th overall in the 1987 draft due to his average size and lack of quickness. That's been the same knock on Dvorksy from multiple scouts, but both players have an incredible release and accuracy on their shots. To be totally clear, we're talking stylistically here and not necessarily from a production or accolades standpoint.

Even if he's not Forsberg, I think we would all be fine if he ends up a cross between RBA and Sakic., a perennial 40+ goal center with Selke-level defense.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Army's philosophy on sending his young prospects to the AHL vs NHL around 1:32:55 mark.

This leads me to believe...
Dvorsky will go to the AHL
Dean will likely go to the AHL

Around 1:57:30, Army mentions that Bolduc will be competing for a top 6 spot and not a 3rd or 4th line spot. I have to wonder if he gets some looks as a RW because of his one-timer and availability on the right side.

This was great interview. Beyond the insight on this year's team, he really shed a lot of light on many GMing topics:

• he had Bannister play kids last year after TDL, was first time he had told a coach who to play
• His inner circle at this point is Steen and Miller and Taylor. Said top advisor had been Dave Taylor initially here, then Chiarelli and also Mellanby has big voice.
• Said he reads message boards!
• He also said explicitly for the first time that I've heard, that late in the Petro negotiation he offered him NMC.
• EDIT: He also said the biggest regret he had/mistake he made was not getting Petro deal done.

 

[Celtic Note]

Army's philosophy on sending his young prospects to the AHL vs NHL around 1:32:55 mark.

This leads me to believe...
Dvorsky will go to the AHL
Dean will likely go to the AHL

Around 1:57:30, Army mentions that Bolduc will be competing for a top 6 spot and not a 3rd or 4th line spot. I have to wonder if he gets some looks as a RW because of his one-timer and availability on the right side.

Thanks for sharing. Really good interview

 

[Celtic Note]

I know I can be hard on Army, but I absolutely respect how he considers others and wants to give back to the game.

 

[sfvega]

Army's philosophy on sending his young prospects to the AHL vs NHL around 1:32:55 mark.

This leads me to believe...
Dvorsky will go to the AHL
Dean will likely go to the AHL

Around 1:57:30, Army mentions that Bolduc will be competing for a top 6 spot and not a 3rd or 4th line spot. I have to wonder if he gets some looks as a RW because of his one-timer and availability on the right side.

That's absolutely the right play. I know everyone is eager to see Dvorsky play for the Blues, but he's a hugely important piece for us and I have no problem taking our time and making him force their hand. That's the great part of this off-season is we have so much depth now that we don't require Dvo to make the roster to start the year or contribute heavily. The emphasis is on the development of his game rather than what we need from him.