Management Bill Guerin

[Wabit]

Boldy-Hartman-Zucc
GREEF
Rossi-Gaudreau-Walker
Duhaime-Dewar-Reaves/Shaw

Brodin-Dumba
Middleton-Spurgeon
Merrill-Addison

Gus
MAF

This team doesn’t lose 8 of 10 unless unusual circumstances happen. I think Rossi/Walker would get a call up at this point. There would be some growing pains, but I see at least .500 hockey.

So the team has 2 2nd lines and 4th line and a line with 2 guys who aren't NHLers? This team doesn't win many games.

 

[AKL]

So the team has 2 2nd lines and 4th line and a line with 2 guys who aren't NHLers? This team doesn't win many games.

Well it might if we continue to play the bottom teams in the league like we have almost all month.

 

[Wabit]

Well it might if we continue to play the bottom teams in the league like we have almost all month.

They are running out of games against the bottom teams. They also don't have a Yeo or Lemaire type of system that can cover up flaws of a lesser skilled team.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Obviously it depends on certain things (home/road, opponent) but it just takes a quick scan of the stat sheet to realize that this lineup would struggle scoring goals right now. I think the best-case scenario would be to get to OT/shootouts in 1-1 games.

I think you’d be surprised how capable this team is of making that happen.

They are running out of games against the bottom teams. They also don't have a Yeo or Lemaire type of system that can cover up flaws of a lesser skilled team.

They have plenty of tenacity to play a lower scoring game.

 

[Wabit]

They have plenty of tenacity to play a lower scoring game.

The team already struggles with 5v5 scoring, and that's with Kap in the lineup. 5v5 MN has 56g, Kap has been on the ice for 22 (39%) of them and has 19 points (34%).

The PP has 25 goals: 23 goals with Kap (92%) and 2 without. Kap has 18 points (72%).

Overall MN has 97 goals, Kap has been on the ice for 52 of them (56.3%).

MN would average about 2g a game without Kap in the lineup. The goalies just aren't good enough to win 2-1 every night.

 

[Digitalbooya]

The team already struggles with 5v5 scoring, and that's with Kap in the lineup. 5v5 MN has 56g, Kap has been on the ice for 22 (39%) of them and has 19 points (34%).

The PP has 25 goals: 23 goals with Kap (92%) and 2 without. Kap has 18 points (72%).

Overall MN has 97 goals, Kap has been on the ice for 52 of them (56.3%).

MN would average about 2g a game without Kap in the lineup. The goalies just aren't good enough to win 2-1 every night.

You don’t think a player replacing Kap, say Boldy, could produce 60-70% of Kap’s production with better linemates and increased TOI?

Your numbers are skewed a bit due to injuries. The team just got Hartman back, who scored 33(!) even strength goals last year.

I do think that Rossi-Gaudreau-Walker would be an adventure and that’s the only line that I would be worried about. But, it does acclimate Rossi to the NHL without having to focus too hard at center duties and he should already have chemistry with Walker.

Boldy-Hartman-Zucc would put up a decent amount of goals. GREEF would be a net positive. Our 4th line does it’s usual thing.

I think it would be manageable enough to go .500 with that lineup.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

You don’t think a player replacing Kap, say Boldy, could produce 60-70% of Kap’s production with better linemates and increased TOI?

Your numbers are skewed a bit due to injuries. The team just got Hartman back, who scored 33(!) even strength goals last year.

I do think that Rossi-Gaudreau-Walker would be an adventure and that’s the only line that I would be worried about. But, it does acclimate Rossi to the NHL without having to focus too hard at center duties and he should already have chemistry with Walker.

Boldy-Hartman-Zucc would put up a decent amount of goals. GREEF would be a net positive. Our 4th line does it’s usual thing.

I think it would be manageable enough to go .500 with that lineup.

Centering Kaprizov.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Centering Kaprizov.

Give him a 33% "Kap Tax" and he's still at 25 ES goals.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Give him a 33% "Kap Tax" and he's still at 25 ES goals.

Give him a 70% "Kap Tax" and he's at 10 ES goals.

 

[Wabit]

You don’t think a player replacing Kap, say Boldy, could produce 60-70% of Kap’s production with better linemates and increased TOI?

Your numbers are skewed a bit due to injuries. The team just got Hartman back, who scored 33(!) even strength goals last year.

I do think that Rossi-Gaudreau-Walker would be an adventure and that’s the only line that I would be worried about. But, it does acclimate Rossi to the NHL without having to focus too hard at center duties and he should already have chemistry with Walker.

Boldy-Hartman-Zucc would put up a decent amount of goals. GREEF would be a net positive. Our 4th line does it’s usual thing.

I think it would be manageable enough to go .500 with that lineup.

Zucc was a 60p/yr player before Kap, 90p/yr player with Kap. Hartman a 30p/yr player before Kap, and had roughly a 65p/yr with Kap. These aren't young guys that had the game suddenly click for them (JEE). Boldy had 70p/pace with Fiala last year. Heck even Steel is 60p pace centering Kap (10p in 14 games).

Neither Boldy or Zucc is a Kap or even a Fiala quality of player. The pickem of centers MN has are guys that should be on a 4th line or pressbox.

Kap/Zucc have 19g 5v5 on-ice (.61gf/game) and 23g on the PP (.74gf/game). Even 70% of Zucc cap production is .43gf/game 5v5 and .52gf/game PP. So that is roughly 1gf/game. The JEE line might be (generously) good for .6 gf/game. Rossi + Walker totals were 3g in 20 games (.15gf/game). Dewar (basically the consistent 4th liner) has an on-ice of .23gf/g

So .43 (Boldy/Zucc) + .6 (GREEF) + .15 (Rossi/Walker)+ .23 (Dewar line) is 1.41 g/game 5v5. Add in .61 for the PP since whoever is put on PP1 will keep 70% of Kap's production. That is a 2.02 g/game. Being very generous with 4v4, PK, and whoever is the 3rd line center add in another .3g/game.

Boldy without Kap or Zucc has 12 on-ice gf this year (.39gf/game).

No, I don't think Rossi will add any scoring to the team 5v5. He didn't to start the year, and I don't consider 4 5v5 points, -2 in 10 AHL games as lighting things up.

 

[AKL]

Give him a 70% "Kap Tax" and he's at 10 ES goals.

I'll give him the benefit of the doubt here. He was a 13 goal per 82 game player before Kaprizov, so I'll say 13 instead of 10.

 

[Webster]

Zucc was a 60p/yr player before Kap, 90p/yr player with Kap. Hartman a 30p/yr player before Kap, and had roughly a 65p/yr with Kap. These aren't young guys that had the game suddenly click for them (JEE). Boldy had 70p/pace with Fiala last year. Heck even Steel is 60p pace centering Kap (10p in 14 games).

Neither Boldy or Zucc is a Kap or even a Fiala quality of player. The pickem of centers MN has are guys that should be on a 4th line or pressbox.

Kap/Zucc have 19g 5v5 on-ice (.61gf/game) and 23g on the PP (.74gf/game). Even 70% of Zucc cap production is .43gf/game 5v5 and .52gf/game PP. So that is roughly 1gf/game. The JEE line might be (generously) good for .6 gf/game. Rossi + Walker totals were 3g in 20 games (.15gf/game). Dewar (basically the consistent 4th liner) has an on-ice of .23gf/g

So .43 (Boldy/Zucc) + .6 (GREEF) + .15 (Rossi/Walker)+ .23 (Dewar line) is 1.41 g/game 5v5. Add in .61 for the PP since whoever is put on PP1 will keep 70% of Kap's production. That is a 2.02 g/game. Being very generous with 4v4, PK, and whoever is the 3rd line center add in another .3g/game.

Boldy without Kap or Zucc has 12 on-ice gf this year (.39gf/game).

No, I don't think Rossi will add any scoring to the team 5v5. He didn't to start the year, and I don't consider 4 5v5 points, -2 in 10 AHL games as lighting things up.

I'd say you're wrong about Zucc. He didn't have top quality linemates when he played for the Rangers. Once he was traded to the Stars, and had Benn and Seguin as linemates, he became close to a ppg player. Only had a playoff run with them, but 11 points in 13 games. Zucc can play well without Kaprizov.

Most players will have better production with skilled linemates, so just looking at points in the past doesn't really give us a correct description.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Give him a 70% "Kap Tax" and he's at 10 ES goals.

Do you think that Boldy is 30% the player that Kap is? Help me find what I'm missing there.

Zucc was a 60p/yr player before Kap, 90p/yr player with Kap. Hartman a 30p/yr player before Kap, and had roughly a 65p/yr with Kap. These aren't young guys that had the game suddenly click for them (JEE). Boldy had 70p/pace with Fiala last year. Heck even Steel is 60p pace centering Kap (10p in 14 games).

Zucc is like Granlund, he was always going to produce better with goal scorers. That's something he didn't have a ton of with the NYR.

Hartman was never put in a top 6 role prior to the playoffs against Vegas. He can absolutely be a top 6 player. I don't care what your math says. Players can produce more when given more opportunities.

Also, you have no reasonable logic to prove that this team without Kap would only win 2 in 10 games. That's .200 win percentage. This team without Kap is worse than Chicago? Worse than Arizona? Worse than Columbus?

 

[AKL]

Hartman was never put in a top 6 role prior to the playoffs against Vegas. He can absolutely be a top 6 player. I don't care what your math says. Players can produce more when given more opportunities.

The forwards he spent the most time on ice with in Chicago were Kane and Hossa. He also spent significant time with Fiala here in 2020-21.

 

[Digitalbooya]

The forwards he spent the most time on ice with in Chicago were Kane and Hossa. He also spent significant time with Fiala here in 2020-21.

He scored 19 goals his rookie season next to a washed up Hossa and Kruger (17pts in 70GP) and was .41 pts/gp. The next year he showed some improvement, up to .44 pts/gp, and then was traded. He might have been playing with top 6 players, but he definitely wasn't getting top 6 minutes. He was playing a total of 13 minutes a night or less prior to his second year in Minnesota. Here is how our current roster shakes out:

Kap ~ 20:46
Zucc ~ 20:16
Ek ~ 19:33
Boldy ~ 17:53
Gaudreau ~ 16:17
Hartman ~ 15:25
Foligno ~ 15:03
Greenway ~ 13:53
Steel ~ 13:44
Jost ~ 12:45
Rossi ~ 12:26

The years you are referring to Hartman would have been sandwiched between Steel and Jost for TOI/GP (12:46 in 16-17, 13:04 in 17-18). For 16-17, he was 10th on the Blackhawks in TOI/GP. For 17-18, he was 13th on the Blackhawks in TOI/GP (11th if you take away two players with under 10GP). Almost none of his time was on the power play either.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Do you think that Boldy is 30% the player that Kap is? Help me find what I'm missing there.

I think Kaprizov could very well be a top 10 overall player in the league right now. I don't think Boldy is anywhere close to that right now, as promising as he is.

Whatever the percentages are, it would be a notable downgrade at this point in time.

 

[Wabit]

I'd say you're wrong about Zucc. He didn't have top quality linemates when he played for the Rangers. Once he was traded to the Stars, and had Benn and Seguin as linemates, he became close to a ppg player. Only had a playoff run with them, but 11 points in 13 games. Zucc can play well without Kaprizov.

Most players will have better production with skilled linemates, so just looking at points in the past doesn't really give us a correct description.

Boldy + Hartman, Steel, or Freddy G isn't better than what Zucc had for linemates in NYR. So I think it's a pretty apples to apples comparison.

Zucc is like Granlund, he was always going to produce better with goal scorers. That's something he didn't have a ton of with the NYR.

Hartman was never put in a top 6 role prior to the playoffs against Vegas. He can absolutely be a top 6 player. I don't care what your math says. Players can produce more when given more opportunities.

Also, you have no reasonable logic to prove that this team without Kap would only win 2 in 10 games. That's .200 win percentage. This team without Kap is worse than Chicago? Worse than Arizona? Worse than Columbus?

Steel + Kap (4.25 gf/60, 3.4 xgf/60) is at a similar pace to Hartman + Kap (4.45 gf/60, 2.7 xgf/60) last year. Rask + Kap had (3.08, 1.89 xgf/60) 2 years ago. Rask and Steel are/were fringe NHL players.

It took Hartman 5 games to play himself off the Kap/Zucc line at the start of the season. Or did we all forget the 1-3-1 start to the season.

This team has played:
-12 games against good teams (.556 on pace for a 90p+ season) 4-7-1, 2 regulation wins.
-13 games against bad teams (.500 or worse). 11-1-1 record, 8 regulation wins.
-6 games against fringe teams (in between the other 2). 3-3-0, 3 regulation wins.

The team without Kap on the ice has 34 5v5 goals (1.09gf/game). I don't even know if they would have a functional PP without Kap. Foligno, Greenway, Hartman, Steel, Spurgeon, Dumba or Freddy G on PP1 instead of Kap just seems like a trainwreck.

So yes, I think this team is as bad without Kap as PHI and VAN are fighting for a bottom-5/6 spot in the league. They might get to OT, but I don't see them winning many OTs or SOs without Kap. It's really no different than the past Wild when Gabby was in and out of the lineup.

 

[Digitalbooya]

So yes, I think this team is as bad without Kap as PHI and VAN are fighting for a bottom-5/6 spot in the league. They might get to OT, but I don't see them winning many OTs or SOs without Kap. It's really no different than the past Wild when Gabby was in and out of the lineup.

I guess I'll just have to disagree and move on.

 

[f7ben]

Probably the worst GM in the league

 

[Minnewildsota]

Probably the worst GM in the league

This is laughable

 

[BagHead]

Probably the worst GM in the league

He's not even the worst GM in Wild history. I think you underestimate the ineptitude on display at that position around the league. The Wild could do better, but they most certainly could also do worse.

 

[north21]

The only big questionable move under guerin is deciding ahead of time we couldnt afford fiala because we needed to fill out the roster with average depth players.

 

[Webster]

Guerin's press conference after reaching halfway point of the season.

He doesn't believe in giving up assets for rentals, so this will probably not happen. Says the team will tell him what to do at the TDL, nothing is also an option. Talks about Boldy, and Steel as the top line center, and more...

 

[Prior]

Guerin gave a second round pick that could have became a first round pick for a rental last year in Fleury. Also gave up a third round pick for a rental in Deslauriers.

He may not be interested in giving up assets for players on their last year of their deal that he has no interest in signing. But if he wants to try to re-sign them, that’s another matter and he likely does not consider those players “rentals” in his mind.

 

[Webster]

Guerin gave a second round pick that could have became a first round pick for a rental last year in Fleury. Also gave up a third round pick for a rental in Deslauriers.

He may not be interested in giving up assets for players on their last year of their deal that he has no interest in signing. But if he wants to try to re-sign them, that’s another matter and he likely does not consider those players “rentals” in his mind.

Fleury wasn't signed as a rental, I'm sure they talked about an extension, exactly what happened.

Guerin also hoped to keep DeLo, but he got an offer elsewhere that BG couldn't afford to match.