Management Bill Guerin

[AKL]

The Journey: 2021 NHL Prospect Pool Rankings



i rest my case

What case do you think you have here?

 

[GuerinUp]

What case do you think you have here?

we are ranked 2nd in top 5 star potential and consensus 3-5 in overall prospect pools in the league.

 

[thestonedkoala]

BTW if you guys are so stuck on Coyle > Boldy then

Granlund > Rossi
Neiderreiter > Boldy
Coyle > Beckman
Brodin > Lambos
Dumba > Addison
Kuemper < Wallstedt
Zucker > Khusnutsdinov
Haula > Khovanov

we are ranked 2nd in top 5 star potential and consensus 3-5 in overall prospect pools in the league.

The same one that lists San Jose and Toronto in the top 5?

The Journey: 2021 NHL Prospect Pool Rankings

Dobber has them ranked 4th.

 

[AKL]

we are ranked 2nd in top 5 star potential and consensus 3-5 in overall prospect pools in the league.

And that means f*** all 10 years from now.

His point was that almost 10 years ago we had a highly regarded prospect pool (which is a fact) and ultimately most of them didn't live up to their high expectations (also a fact). By simply pointing out that our prospect pool is once again highly regarded, you've added nothing to the conversation that wasn't already there, and didn't even remotely disprove his notion that this group of prospects could also fail to live up to expectations in 10 years.

 

[GuerinUp]

And that means f*** all 10 years from now.

His point was that almost 10 years ago we had a highly regarded prospect pool (which is a fact) and ultimately most of them didn't live up to their high expectations (also a fact). By simply pointing out that our prospect pool is once again highly regarded, you've added nothing to the conversation that wasn't already there, and didn't even remotely disprove his notion that this group of prospects could also fail to live up to expectations in 10 years.

ya, they could end up all failing. Other than the fact we have a much better scouting department now than weve ever had

 

[AKL]

ya, they could end up all failing. Other than the fact we have a much better scouting department now than weve ever had

More conjecture, and still, doesn't matter

 

[thestonedkoala]

ya, they could end up all failing. Other than the fact we have a much better scouting department now than weve ever had

That I can agree with, we have a better scouting department. That is also something that Fenton was pretty good at.

 

[AKL]

That I can agree with, we have a better scouting department. That is also something that Fenton was pretty good at.

So you make a whole argument about how the prospects we have now aren't any better, and may be worse, than the prospects we had almost 10 years ago, but then you do a complete 180 by saying our scouting department is better now?

On what basis can you say our prospects are worse now, but our scouting department is better? If our prospects are worse, wouldn't our scouting be worse? And if our scouting is better, wouldn't our prospects be better?

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

Here’s a list of Rankings from 2012 that’s interesting to look back on: Ranking Hockey's Top 50 Prospects After the 2012 NHL Draft

what you should take from prospect rankings is this:

• Nobody really has a good idea what they’re talking about. Forsberg and Stone were 47 and 49 on this list and they’re better than Granlund and Kuznetsov who were 1 and 2.
• Because nobody really knows, when you think you’ve got enough prospects to take the next step in your rebuild, you’re probably wrong. Half of them will probably bust, and half of the rest won’t reach their ceiling.
  
• The surest way to do well is to just have as many darts to throw at the dart board as possible.

 

[AKL]

Here’s a list of Rankings from 2012 that’s interesting to look back on: Ranking Hockey's Top 50 Prospects After the 2012 NHL Draft

what you should take from prospect rankings is this:

• Nobody really has a good idea what they’re talking about. Forsberg and Stone were 47 and 49 on this list and they’re better than Granlund and Kuznetsov who were 1 and 2.
• Because nobody really knows, when you think you’ve got enough prospects to take the next step in your rebuild, you’re probably wrong. Half of them will probably bust, and half of the rest won’t reach their ceiling.
  
• The surest way to do well is to just have as many darts to throw at the dart board as possible.

This is why I've advocated continuing to build heavily through the draft until our core prospects are the ones leading us to the playoffs. The "rebuild" isn't over until Rossi is a 1C, or Wallstedt is a 1G, etc.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

And that means f*** all 10 years from now.

His point was that almost 10 years ago we had a highly regarded prospect pool (which is a fact) and ultimately most of them didn't live up to their high expectations (also a fact). By simply pointing out that our prospect pool is once again highly regarded, you've added nothing to the conversation that wasn't already there, and didn't even remotely disprove his notion that this group of prospects could also fail to live up to expectations in 10 years.

The problem with his notion is that it seems like he's trying to use it as evidence that this group WILL fail, or at least WILL not be better than 2012.

"That group didn't do much, so why even try to think highly of this one"? I don't really see a reason to connect those dots.

 

[Bazeek]

BTW if you guys are so stuck on Coyle > Boldy then

Granlund > Rossi
Neiderreiter > Boldy
Coyle > Beckman
Brodin > Lambos
Dumba > Addison
Kuemper < Wallstedt
Zucker > Khusnutsdinov
Haula > Khovanov



The same one that lists San Jose and Toronto in the top 5?

The Journey: 2021 NHL Prospect Pool Rankings

Dobber has them ranked 4th.

Neiderreiter was not a better prospect than Boldy either (and not Wild property until after his D+3 season). The only thing Nino had on Boldy was draft position, but post draft he had one okay year in Portland and one disastrous year bounced between New York and Bridgeport. After his D+2 season the Islanders had jerked him around to the point that no one knew which direction he was headed anymore.

I do think the pools are comparable, but if the current group has a leg up it's that they currently have two very high-end forward prospects (Boldy and Rossi) versus the one (Granlund) we had in 2012.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

This is why I've advocated continuing to build heavily through the draft until our core prospects are the ones leading us to the playoffs. The "rebuild" isn't over until Rossi is a 1C, or Wallstedt is a 1G, etc.

Luckily, Parise and Suter’s dead cap will hopefully lock Guerin into a rebuild even when he thinks he’s ready to move past it

 

[AKL]

The problem with his notion is that it seems like he's trying to use it as evidence that this group WILL fail, or at least WILL not be better than 2012.

"That group didn't do much, so why even try to think highly of this one"? I don't really see a reason to connect those dots.

Obviously I don't agree with that part, as I think very highly of some of these prospects.

 

[thestonedkoala]

The problem with his notion is that it seems like he's trying to use it as evidence that this group WILL fail, or at least WILL not be better than 2012.

"That group didn't do much, so why even try to think highly of this one"? I don't really see a reason to connect those dots.

Nope, that's not my point at all. My point is that the 2012 group was thought of as highly, some failed, some didn't. The issue was that the team expected them to compliment Parise and Suter and get them over the hump, and they didn't.

We are doing the same thing, where we think Boldy, Rossi, Beckman, Khovanov, Lambos, Addison are going to be sure things that will propel this team to be contenders.

You can't bank on just prospects or just signings or just trades. You need a mixture of all three. Guerin has done two of those things right.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Nope, that's not my point at all. My point is that the 2012 group was thought of as highly, some failed, some didn't. The issue was that the team expected them to compliment Parise and Suter and get them over the hump, and they didn't.

We are doing the same thing, where we think Boldy, Rossi, Beckman, Khovanov, Lambos, Addison are going to be sure things that will propel this team to be contenders.

You can't bank on just prospects or just signings or just trades. You need a mixture of all three. Guerin has done two of those things right.

Are we now?

 

[thestonedkoala]

Are we now?

Read the threads; projecting Rossi to be a top 6 center immediately? He had a few good skating sessions, he'll get to work out in training camp, but I wouldn't be surprised if Rossi spends at least a few months in the AHL - if even longer than that.

I think a few posters are heavily skeptical about this season and beyond and what the Wild are actually doing, but most are content to being a middling team where they get bounced 1st round for the next 4+ years.

 

[Bazeek]

Read the threads; projecting Rossi to be a top 6 center immediately? He had a few good skating sessions, he'll get to work out in training camp, but I wouldn't be surprised if Rossi spends at least a few months in the AHL - if even longer than that.

I think a few posters are heavily skeptical about this season and beyond and what the Wild are actually doing, but most are content to being a middling team where they get bounced 1st round for the next 4+ years.

There are a number of people here that are very high on Rossi and optimistic about timelines for him, but even they haven't been claiming that our current prospect pool guarantees any kind of success.

 

[GuerinUp]

Read the threads; projecting Rossi to be a top 6 center immediately? He had a few good skating sessions, he'll get to work out in training camp, but I wouldn't be surprised if Rossi spends at least a few months in the AHL - if even longer than that.

I think a few posters are heavily skeptical about this season and beyond and what the Wild are actually doing, but most are content to being a middling team where they get bounced 1st round for the next 4+ years.

i mean, look at his competition. If his fitness is up to par this shouldnt be difficult.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Read the threads; projecting Rossi to be a top 6 center immediately? He had a few good skating sessions, he'll get to work out in training camp, but I wouldn't be surprised if Rossi spends at least a few months in the AHL - if even longer than that.

I think a few posters are heavily skeptical about this season and beyond and what the Wild are actually doing, but most are content to being a middling team where they get bounced 1st round for the next 4+ years.

I have that list of players as varying degrees of promising. None as "sure things", even if/when I pencil Rossi between Kaprizov and Zuccarello.

I just don't think that Mikael Granlund has anything to do with how Rossi is going to turn out. Same with Coyle and Boldy. Same with Brodin and Lambos. Etc.

 

[thestonedkoala]

i mean, look at his competition. If his fitness is up to par this shouldnt be difficult.

That's what you think, but look at last season? They kept Sturm buried on the 4th line or scratched. They didn't bring Boldy up (and look at the competition then). They kept Rask on the top line as well throughout the playoffs.

Evason and Guerin aren't going to simply hand the keys over to Rossi even if we think he's ready or not.

I just don't think that Mikael Granlund has anything to do with how Rossi is going to turn out. Same with Coyle and Boldy. Same with Brodin and Lambos. Etc.

On a granular level, yes. But overall, I think that Granlund and Coyle are cautionary tales that the guys you want to pencil in as sure bets and good players can't be until at least a season or two under their belts.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

That's what you think, but look at last season? They kept Sturm buried on the 4th line or scratched. They didn't bring Boldy up (and look at the competition then). They kept Rask on the top line as well throughout the playoffs.

Evason and Guerin aren't going to simply hand the keys over to Rossi even if we think he's ready or not.

Then the Rossi 1/2C discussion can get bumped a couple months or a year. It's not the end of the world.

 

[GuerinUp]

That's what you think, but look at last season? They kept Sturm buried on the 4th line or scratched. They didn't bring Boldy up (and look at the competition then). They kept Rask on the top line as well throughout the playoffs.

Evason and Guerin aren't going to simply hand the keys over to Rossi even if we think he's ready or not.

what does sturm have to do with it? Hes a grinder. And when did i ever say theyd just give him a spot? i didnt. But beating one of the centers/wingers not named ek or in boldys case one of the lesser talented wingers out of a spot IN training camp will not be a difficult task if they come to camp ready.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Then the Rossi 1/2C discussion can get bumped a couple months or a year. It's not the end of the world.

I think it's a worthwhile discussion to have, because it does have an impact on this season. We went into last season thinking that they would trade Bonino, Bjugstad and Johansson at the deadline and continue the rebuild, but we all saw how that went. Even Cole would have been a good trade.

So, going into this season - should the Wild be sellers at the deadline or not - regardless if they are in a playoff spot or not? Do we call Rossi up even if he isn't ready?

what does sturm have to do with it? Hes a grinder. And when did i ever say theyd just give him a spot? i didnt. But beating one of the centers/wingers not named ek or in boldys case one of the lesser talented wingers out of a spot IN training camp will not be a difficult task if they come to camp ready.

Sturm was a) a rookie and b) better than guys around him. You're also assuming that Evason isn't going to lean on the veterans like he did last season.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I think it's a worthwhile discussion to have, because it does have an impact on this season. We went into last season thinking that they would trade Bonino, Bjugstad and Johansson at the deadline and continue the rebuild, but we all saw how that went. Even Cole would have been a good trade.

So, going into this season - should the Wild be sellers at the deadline or not - regardless if they are in a playoff spot or not? Do we call Rossi up even if he isn't ready?

Who would we be selling this year?