Bettman meeting with Ryan Smith, owner of Utah Jazz and Real Salt Lake (upd: Smith asks NHL to open expansion process)

[KevFu]

Well, this is out of left field:

Salt Lake City joins push for expansion MLB team

Big League Utah, a group headed by longtime Jazz owner Gail Miller, has thrown Salt Lake City into the mix of cities hoping to land an expansion MLB franchise, people involved with the project told ESPN.

www.espn.com

 

[Tawnos]

Well, this is out of left field:

Salt Lake City joins push for expansion MLB team

Big League Utah, a group headed by longtime Jazz owner Gail Miller, has thrown Salt Lake City into the mix of cities hoping to land an expansion MLB franchise, people involved with the project told ESPN.

www.espn.com

An MLB or NFL team certainly makes more sense in an NBA market of that size than an NHL team does.

 

[KevFu]

An MLB or NFL team certainly makes more sense in an NBA market of that size than an NHL team does.

The difference to me was the Winter Olympic bid and the arena construction. They're bidding on the 2030 or 2034 WO.

- They ARE going to build a new arena for the Jazz that can have ice in it for the Olympics.
- The bid needs a second and third venue for hockey games. Last time they put a 10,000 seater in Provo, giving them some Olympic action to get the votes for funding. And since that's an "AHL size" and an NHL team needs a nearby AHL team... it makes sense.

That being said, either (a) folding a MLB stadium into the funding for the Olympics or (b)building an indoor MLB stadium that can hold the Opening/Closing ceremonies and maybe even events also works.


Certainly another illustration about how there are windows of opportunity, and smart leaders seize them.

 

[Tawnos]

The difference to me was the Winter Olympic bid and the arena construction. They're bidding on the 2030 or 2034 WO.

- They ARE going to build a new arena for the Jazz that can have ice in it for the Olympics.
- The bid needs a second and third venue for hockey games. Last time they put a 10,000 seater in Provo, giving them some Olympic action to get the votes for funding. And since that's an "AHL size" and an NHL team needs a nearby AHL team... it makes sense.

That being said, either (a) folding a MLB stadium into the funding for the Olympics or (b)building an indoor MLB stadium that can hold the Opening/Closing ceremonies and maybe even events also works.


Certainly another illustration about how there are windows of opportunity, and smart leaders seize them.

Building an arena that can host an NHL hockey team doesn't solve the problem of an NBA team already being there, which is the biggest issue with SLC for the NHL.

That being said, there are no markets with an NBA team, NHL team and no NFL or MLB at all. It would be an interesting experiment at least. Portland is the same situation.

 

[Hasbro]

Utah Grizzlies NHL edition?

In honor of their other pro teams the mascot should have absolutely nothing to do with Salt Lake.

The Utah Caffinators?

 

[KevFu]

Building an arena that can host an NHL hockey team doesn't solve the problem of an NBA team already being there, which is the biggest issue with SLC for the NHL.

That being said, there are no markets with an NBA team, NHL team and no NFL or MLB at all. It would be an interesting experiment at least. Portland is the same situation.

I don't see why it's a big deal that it would be NHL/NBA, as opposed to NBA/MLB like Milwaukee...

MLB is 81 games over six months. NBA/NHL is 82 games over 6 months.

 

[Tawnos]

I don't see why it's a big deal that it would be NHL/NBA, as opposed to NBA/MLB like Milwaukee...

MLB is 81 games over six months. NBA/NHL is 82 games over 6 months.

MLB being a different time of year is a big factor IMO. You'll have TV advertisers, corporate sponsors and fans whose budgets don't allow them to double up during those six months.

 

[Yukon Joe]

I don't see why it's a big deal that it would be NHL/NBA, as opposed to NBA/MLB like Milwaukee...

MLB is 81 games over six months. NBA/NHL is 82 games over 6 months.

The seasons between NHL and NBA overlap almost perfectly: October through June.

MLB probably has the least overlap: April through October.

NFL is a bit more problematic (September through February) but their playoffs are at completely different times.


And MLB is 162 games...

 

[Tawnos]

The seasons between NHL and NBA overlap almost perfectly: October through June.

MLB probably has the least overlap: April through October.

NFL is a bit more problematic (September through February) but their playoffs are at completely different times.


And MLB is 162 games...

He was talking about home games. 81 for MLB, 82 for NHL/NBA combined.

Otherwise I agree with you 100%

 

[Malaka]

VGK would be losing Utah as TV market. They have done summer tour with stop in SLC.

Games are honestly hard to come by

 

[Malaka]

I’ve said for a while now that Utah absolutely should be a longterm expansion target for the NHL. It’s rapidly growing and very wealthy with a solid winter sports tradition. Only real downsides to it is that it’s still on the small side, for now, and geographically their market is very long and narrow, making a lot of the fanbase a trek and a half away from a game.

But Jazz fanbase is rock solid, and I have no doubt that the NHL would absolutely work there. Would love for them to be the Utah Yellowjackets, but that would be a tad too repetitive to have two jackets squads in the NHL. Probably something else bee-related, promoting the Grizzlies name (although with the Memphis Grizzlies I’m not sure if there are any hiccups with an NBA owner owning a major pro team in another league with a potential rival’s name), or something else with a double z.

I agree with this in total but also worth noting Utah specifically SLC is destined to become a hellscape within the next half a decade(maybe it’s one of those always “5 years away” things) due to combinations of pollution(already worst in the world), water drought and concomitant arsenic release into the atmosphere… forest fires, the mother of all earthquakes swallowing the city into a bottomless pit, a broken traffic light system and drivers out to lunch, AND the mormon church not allowing fun — did I mention no restaurants f***ing open past 9PM?!

My rambling concerns and frustrations aside, valid or not as they may prove to be, I am so gung ho on getting a team in salt lake I’m ready to pack up and move half of the league. I would KILL for an arena just outside of the valley nearer to summit park and park city.

And forget the Utah bees!! Call them the dire/grey Wolves, the Uintatherium, raptors, soakers, etc

 

[Malaka]

Salt Lake City has a metro population of about 1.1 million. How would this even work with an NBA and MLS franchise in the area?

SLC has had a very high growth rate lately.

 

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

Super interesting to me, I think ATL/Houston would be better business on the surface I truly think they will be expansion.
SLC would fit in nicely in my opinion and as much as I would not want the Yotes fans to lose a team I think Utah would embrace a franchise

Atlanta is a toilet for hockey. It's been tried twice and it's failed both times. I don't think there's going to be a third chance. If Arizona backfires, the team should go to Quebec City. However, the team will probably end up somewhere like Oklahoma City or Baltimore or a darkhorse like Milwaukee.

 

[HisIceness]

SLC has had a very high growth rate lately.

So does Raleigh, Charlotte, Orlando, Nashville etc.

SLC is still nowhere near big enough to bear the burden of overlapping leagues playing a combined 82 home games.

 

[Tawnos]

So does Raleigh, Charlotte, Orlando, Nashville etc.

SLC is still nowhere near big enough to bear the burden of overlapping leagues playing a combined 82 home games.

I'll just circle back to this. The SLC market is comparable to Charlotte and Orlando. It's larger than Raleigh and Nashville (as are Charlotte and Orlando). SLC has 2.7 million people in it and 2.5 of that live in 4 adjacent counties in a N-S line. It's 45 minutes-1 hours from downtown Salt Lake to the outer boundaries of that N-S block.

While I agree with you that it's not big enough yet, it's closer to Denver (the smallest market that supports both) than people realize.

 

[KevFu]

I don't think it would be "a problem" as much as I just think there's other places better.

And their MLB bid throws some new calculus into the mix. Going from 41 home games for the market to buy tickets for, to 82 is one thing, going from 41 to 163 is another.

 

[KevFu]

I was curious as to the "real" cost of supporting a team for a fan base. Because so much revenue comes from TV, where just having a team gets you tens to hundreds to millions of dollars...

I took the Gate Receipts from Forbes estimations (not great data, I know, but gives us a ballpark)

And then for 20 cities, plugged in their Dollars per Person for the metro area... (USD). I originally made a list of smaller markets and then added in places that were expansion candidates for NHL/MLB... (I didn't include MLS revenues because they were behind a paywall on Forbes).

16.54 MONTREAL
21.50 Portland
32.93 Memphis
35.00 San Diego
41.84 Charlotte
46.06 ATLANTA
51.34 HOUSTON
53.84 Salt Lake City
56.31 Winnipeg
58.39 Tampa
65.31 Seattle
67.58 Nashville
70.48 St. Louis
76.57 Buffalo
79.03 Pittsburgh
90.73 Las Vegas
102.62 Cleveland
108.52 Milwaukee


Salt Lake, adding an NHL team goes to $108.47. Adding MLB goes to $136.18. Adding BOTH is $190.81.

Adding NHL:
55.99 San Diego
57.29 ATLANTA
60.91 HOUSTON
82.21 Quebec
108.47 Salt Lake City

Adding MLB
40.78 MONTREAL
62.91 Portland
80.34 Charlotte
119.26 Nashville
136.10 Las Vegas
136.18 Salt Lake City

 

[Tawnos]

I was curious as to the "real" cost of supporting a team for a fan base. Because so much revenue comes from TV, where just having a team gets you tens to hundreds to millions of dollars...

I took the Gate Receipts from Forbes estimations (not great data, I know, but gives us a ballpark)

And then for 20 cities, plugged in their Dollars per Person for the metro area... (USD). I originally made a list of smaller markets and then added in places that were expansion candidates for NHL/MLB... (I didn't include MLS revenues because they were behind a paywall on Forbes).

16.54 MONTREAL
21.50 Portland
32.93 Memphis
35.00 San Diego
41.84 Charlotte
46.06 ATLANTA
51.34 HOUSTON
53.84 Salt Lake City
56.31 Winnipeg
58.39 Tampa
65.31 Seattle
67.58 Nashville
70.48 St. Louis
76.57 Buffalo
79.03 Pittsburgh
90.73 Las Vegas
102.62 Cleveland
108.52 Milwaukee


Salt Lake, adding an NHL team goes to $108.47. Adding MLB goes to $136.18. Adding BOTH is $190.81.

Adding NHL:
55.99 San Diego
57.29 ATLANTA
60.91 HOUSTON
82.21 Quebec
108.47 Salt Lake City

Adding MLB
40.78 MONTREAL
62.91 Portland
80.34 Charlotte
119.26 Nashville
136.10 Las Vegas
136.18 Salt Lake City

Are you using SLC's 1.2m MSA population for this?

 

[KevFu]

Are you using SLC's 1.2m MSA population for this?

I used:
Metropolitan statistical area - Wikipedia
And List of census metropolitan areas and agglomerations in Canada - Wikipedia

 

[Tawnos]

I used:
Metropolitan statistical area - Wikipedia
And List of census metropolitan areas and agglomerations in Canada - Wikipedia

I get it, but the problem is that this doesn't really represent a good 1:1 comparison for reasons i've mentioned in this thread before. SLC's MSA by itself just isn't a fair comparison to most MSAs for the purposes of defining a market.

Just as an example.

The 4 main counties of the Wasatch Front are split into 3 separate MSAs (Salt Lake, Provo, Ogden), hold 2.5 million people and cover 4,244 square miles.

Now, if you look at the Portland, OR area. There are also 4 main counties, but they encompass a single MSA. The population of those 4 counties contain 2.3 million people and they cover 3,731 square miles.

The point here is that sticking to only MSA can give you a good picture for most markets, but there are cases where it misses the mark. The difference between Salt Lake's 46th rank in MSA population and their 22nd rank in CSA population is a really big variance. That 24 spot difference is one of the largest in the top-50 CSAs in the country. The only ones larger are Greensboro-Winston Salem-High Point vs Greensboro alone, Harrisburg-York-Lebanon vs Harrisburg alone, and Cape Coral-Fort Myers-Naples vs Cape Coral-Fort Myers alone.

Putting the SLC market on equal population footing with the other markets cuts your numbers in half.

 

[PCSPounder]

I get it, but the problem is that this doesn't really represent a good 1:1 comparison for reasons i've mentioned in this thread before. SLC's MSA by itself just isn't a fair comparison to most MSAs for the purposes of defining a market.

Just as an example.

The 4 main counties of the Wasatch Front are split into 3 separate MSAs (Salt Lake, Provo, Ogden), hold 2.5 million people and cover 4,244 square miles.

Now, if you look at the Portland, OR area. There are also 4 main counties, but they encompass a single MSA. The population of those 4 counties contain 2.3 million people and they cover 3,731 square miles.

The point here is that sticking to only MSA can give you a good picture for most markets, but there are cases where it misses the mark. The difference between Salt Lake's 46th rank in MSA population and their 22nd rank in CSA population is a really big variance. That 24 spot difference is one of the largest in the top-50 CSAs in the country. The only ones larger are Greensboro-Winston Salem-High Point vs Greensboro alone, Harrisburg-York-Lebanon vs Harrisburg alone, and Cape Coral-Fort Myers-Naples vs Cape Coral-Fort Myers alone.

Putting the SLC market on equal population footing with the other markets cuts your numbers in half.

If you include Provo with Salt Lake, you include Salem (and Longview) with Portland. I’d say that Charlotte would also benefit from an extension, and you have to factor in the number of Americans now living in Tijuana and either commuting or teleworking to San Diego.

 

[Tawnos]

If you include Provo with Salt Lake, you include Salem (and Longview) with Portland. I’d say that Charlotte would also benefit from an extension, and you have to factor in the number of Americans now living in Tijuana and either commuting or teleworking to San Diego.

There’s nowhere within an hour of Charlotte worth including. The CSA just adds two rural counties that the MSA doesn’t have. Salem does get included in the Portland CSA.

The difference with SLC is the shape of the geography.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

I don't see why it's a big deal that it would be NHL/NBA, as opposed to NBA/MLB like Milwaukee...

MLB is 81 games over six months. NBA/NHL is 82 games over 6 months.

Milwaukee isn't a good example because you have the Green Bay Packers in the NFL.

 

[KevFu]

Milwaukee isn't a good example because you have the Green Bay Packers in the NFL.

Right, but there's really NO good example to use for "We have NBA and NHL and nothing else" markets that aren't mega-market four-sport cities.

Which honestly, is probably the BEST argument for not putting both NHL and NBA in Salt Lake.

But I'm of the belief that an expansion team can work in any major market (top 50) that isn't over-saturated as long as you have an owner committed, a good arena and a good lease.

I think TWO arenas like the Wild/TWolves have in MSP wouldn't work for SLC. But if the Jazz owner bought an NHL team to put in a new arena built for two teams (and the Olympics), I don't think the fact that NHL and NBA seasons go on at the same time is a financial problem.

 

[KevFu]

I get it, but the problem is that this doesn't really represent a good 1:1 comparison for reasons i've mentioned in this thread before. SLC's MSA by itself just isn't a fair comparison to most MSAs for the purposes of defining a market.

Just as an example.

The 4 main counties of the Wasatch Front are split into 3 separate MSAs (Salt Lake, Provo, Ogden), hold 2.5 million people and cover 4,244 square miles.

Now, if you look at the Portland, OR area. There are also 4 main counties, but they encompass a single MSA. The population of those 4 counties contain 2.3 million people and they cover 3,731 square miles.

The point here is that sticking to only MSA can give you a good picture for most markets, but there are cases where it misses the mark. The difference between Salt Lake's 46th rank in MSA population and their 22nd rank in CSA population is a really big variance. That 24 spot difference is one of the largest in the top-50 CSAs in the country. The only ones larger are Greensboro-Winston Salem-High Point vs Greensboro alone, Harrisburg-York-Lebanon vs Harrisburg alone, and Cape Coral-Fort Myers-Naples vs Cape Coral-Fort Myers alone.

Putting the SLC market on equal population footing with the other markets cuts your numbers in half.

That's totally fair. I've been on the SLC-Provo interstate corridor before, and it's really easy, and I could see how there'd easily be support from more than just the MSA.

Let me try CSA...

Adding NHL
29.33 Austin
37.44 Portland
49.89 Salt Lake
50.30 Atlanta
55.99 San Diego
59.93 Houston
82.21 Quebec City

Adding MLB
40.78 Montreal
48.09 Portland
62.63 Salt Lake
75.75 Charlotte
111.97 Nashville
133.00 Las Vegas

Adding MLB and NHL: 87.76 Salt Lake City.

Adding NBA: 32.15 Montreal