Value of: Best RHD to Edmonton

[ChaoticOrange]

Makar+ Newhook and 1st 2023 for Draisaitl + Bouchard.

Nope. Bold to give up Makar though but his concussion issues worry me a lot. Two concussions in a week and a half… yikes.

 

[Brett44]

Nope. Bold to give up Makar though but his concussion issues worry me a lot. Two concussions in a week and a half… yikes.

it was a joke for provoked, never in life I will exchange Makar even for Macdavid.

 

[TFHockey]

it was a joke for provoked, never in life I will exchange Makar even for Macdavid.

But you would for McDavid, as would everyone else.

Edmonton on the other hand...

 

[BlueTacos]

I wonder what the "buy low" price on Parayko is. Obviously the Blues would need something to make it worthwhile to move him, but what is that, and would they take back a short contract to help us with cap space?

Well parayko played 79 games last year and averaged about 23toi. So if his back is hurting him he must of had one he'll of a drug dealer lol. Seriously though. I would think broberg ceci and a pick for taking two years of ceci

 

[TFHockey]

Well parayko played 79 games last year and averaged about 23toi. So if his back is hurting him he must of had one he'll of a drug dealer lol. Seriously though. I would think broberg ceci and a pick for taking two years of ceci

You think Ceci is the risk here?

 

[biturbo19]

Edmonton should just go status quo into season. See how things are looking going into trade deadline. Then trade for best UFA D with retained salary.

This will allow them to better utilize the lack of cap space they have.

The current crop of UFA D that fit the need (stable, defensive sound) are going to price themselves out of what Edmonton can afford.

This concept does have some validity to it. It's a bit of a risk, but the reality is...the dynamic duo should continue to allow them to outscore their problems well enough to stagger through the first half of the regular season within playoff range...even with the defence "as is".

And like you said, they might be able to get "more bang for their limited bucks" at the deadline. It might also even change up some of the names that are available to them. As teams have unexpected good/bad seasons, as contract discussions progress or stall, that can put new names on the market. It can also take names off the market and i'm not sure how many really good "new" names it's going to put on the market. But if they can't find, and fit under the cap a real improvement this offseason, maybe this is the way to go.


Basically committing to the idea of overpaying "deadline prices" in acquisition cost, in exchange for a lesser "cap price". Not necessarily optimized "asset management" per se, but it could be shrewd cap management if it allows them to also make changes elsewhere, or potentially even keep more of their defensive depth guys like Ceci/Kulak for a playoff run.

 

[BlueTacos]

You think Ceci is the risk here?

Yes 79 games last year and 23toi parayko is not the problem. Your perception is.

 

[bernmeister]

I could be wrong, but Parayko is a no go for most Oiler fans.

prob not wrong, even tho long term at 4 is dif than 6.5
but we all ask to get a head count and be informed

 

[bernmeister]

I think the story ended when Bern thought it was remotely possible Panarin gets traded to St. Louis for Parayko. Doesn't make sense for anyone at all.

And that's not even looking at Oilers fans wanting nothing to do with Parayko at this stage in his career, for the length of that contract, regardless if it's "only" $4milAAV

notwithstanding bread has to waive it is more than remotely possible
ballpark same $$$ overall
ballpark less $ at ballpark twice the term
the other guy twice the $$ at half the term

bread is better player now
Para = ? how much of it is just the back and can the back issue be addressed?

but ny can recover his cap on ltir

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Well parayko played 79 games last year and averaged about 23toi. So if his back is hurting him he must of had one he'll of a drug dealer lol. Seriously though. I would think broberg ceci and a pick for taking two years of ceci

and was largely awful the whole time.

I mean, Cody Ceci played most of his time on Edmonton's top pair until the trade deadline too.

 

[LTIR]

I wonder what the "buy low" price on Parayko is. Obviously the Blues would need something to make it worthwhile to move him, but what is that, and would they take back a short contract to help us with cap space?

Factor in the age, recent play and contracts I don't believe the Oilers would have to give much more than just Ceci for Parayko. Ceci plus pick/prospect should be sufficient IMO and no I don't expect STL fans to agree with me.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Factor in the age, recent play and contracts I don't believe the Oilers would have to give much more than just Ceci for Parayko. Ceci plus pick/prospect should be sufficient IMO and no I don't expect STL fans to agree with me.

You might be right. The biggest issue for Edmonton, in my opinion, is that they should be trying to find a way to keep Ceci, so they can run Nurse - Parayko, Ekholm- Bouchard, Kulak-Ceci and alternate the 7th D spot between Broberg and Desharnais. Of course they could do Yamamoto instead of Ceci but that still leaves the team short for our RFA extensions (Bouchard, McLeod and Kostin) and signing some depth guys.

 

[ddawg1950]

A bit weird that your analysis of defensemen is so off. Nurse's defensive numbers are pretty good considering he always plays against the other team's top line, and our defensive structure in general is too loose, which results in good scoring chances both ways. He's not the problem, he's just an easy scapegoat. Ceci wasn't a problem in his first year with the Oilers, but last year he was. Apparently, he was battling some injuries for most of the season though, so maybe he rebounds, but I don't want to assume that will happen as he's not an ideal top-pair defenseman at all, even in his first year in Edmonton when he performed way above everyone's expectations, he wasn't the ideal piece we need.

Of the available pieces, I think Severson is probably most likely to be the answer, but I think he will cost more than we have to spend, and I also worry that he's going to want a long contract, and given his age, he's more likely to have only a couple of years of his prime left. He also doesn't have the nasty side I'd love to see in a defenseman next to Nurse, but given today's NHL, that's more of a luxury than a need.

Nurse - Severson
Ekholm - Bouchard
Kulak - Ceci
Broberg - Desharnais

Would be perfect, but I don't think the Oilers have the cap space to make it work.

I'm sorry if I offended you with the idea that a 9.5 million dollar defenseman, who has pretty good numbers playing against tough opposition is..I mean 9.5 for "pretty good" seems pathetic to me.

 

[BlueTacos]

and was largely awful the whole time.

I mean, Cody Ceci played most of his time on Edmonton's top pair until the trade deadline too.

Lol parayko wasn't awful the entire team was. It's cool as soon as parayko and the team improves you guys will come out of the woodwork wanting him. Lol 23 toi average and you are trying to uplay Cody ceci like he is comparable to parayko.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Factor in the age, recent play and contracts I don't believe the Oilers would have to give much more than just Ceci for Parayko. Ceci plus pick/prospect should be sufficient IMO and no I don't expect STL fans to agree with me.

Nobody who has a clue agrees with you. That's laughable.

 

[BlueTacos]

Nobody who has a clue agrees with you. That's laughable.

Yeah ceci would be capdump then 1st and probably broberg.

You might be right. The biggest issue for Edmonton, in my opinion, is that they should be trying to find a way to keep Ceci, so they can run Nurse - Parayko, Ekholm- Bouchard, Kulak-Ceci and alternate the 7th D spot between Broberg and Desharnais. Of course they could do Yamamoto instead of Ceci but that still leaves the team short for our RFA extensions (Bouchard, McLeod and Kostin) and signing some depth guys.

I'm sorry but parayko for ceci and pick is horrible and would not even get more than a hang up from army. Ceci would be cap returning. Then 1st then probably a prospect. 1st line dman at 6.5

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Just sign Justin Holl

 

[ElPrimeTime]

Just sign Justin Holl

No.

 

[Petes2424]

If we look at their two playoff rounds this year, they beat the Kings doing what teams have been doing to them, and their D held up. They wore the Kings D down.

Unfortunately it was clear by Game 4 against Vegas, that they were starting to wear down themselves again, and that Vegas D was just too tough to wear down. That team having guys like McNabb, Whitecloud and Hague may have opened Kenny’s mind up, to what he needs to do this summer.

With where Bouchard is, then having Ekholm and Nurse, they now have 3 pair carrying dmen. Kulak fits, Broberg is up in the air, but you don’t want to stunt his development.

It’s probably more in their interest to move Ceci, and replace him with another role player who can move the puck but be able to withstand the physical play. Whether that’s a Schenn, Mayfield or a trade.

Then play Broberg quite a bit the first half of the season and see where he’s at.

Getting Ekholm was a major addition but just as much, Bouchard’s development puts them in a much better spot than they were in last summer.

They don’t need a major change. They need at least one player who’s just really solid. Then see where Broberg is come the deadline.

Ceci is the odd man out it would seem. Where this time last year, he was their best puck retriever. He’ll help someone else but the Oilers just need a different type of role player. Even a player like Gudas would fit well.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Yeah ceci would be capdump then 1st and probably broberg.


I'm sorry but parayko for ceci and pick is horrible and would not even get more than a hang up from army. Ceci would be cap returning. Then 1st then probably a prospect. 1st line dman at 6.5

Not sure why you quoted me when I said we shouldn't interested in moving Ceci either. He isn't a cap dump either, he's very good when not forced on to a top pairing role. There are far worse RD who will be signed for far longer and far more money this summer. Ceci adds value to the deal. With Parayko's cap hit and injury concerns, I'm not sure if a 1st and prospect is really the right price.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Lol parayko wasn't awful the entire team was. It's cool as soon as parayko and the team improves you guys will come out of the woodwork wanting him. Lol 23 toi average and you are trying to uplay Cody ceci like he is comparable to parayko.

icetime is a shitty way of deciding who's good. Someone has to play.

Parayko's been in decline for years, he hasn't been a force for a long time and frankly his drop-off was part of the reason the Blues were bad. They'll get a good return because of his reputation, I just hope it's not from us.

Just sign Justin Holl

we have more than enough 5/6 defencemen as is.

 

[Lacaar]

Yes 79 games last year and 23toi parayko is not the problem. Your perception is.

I've heard the quality of those minutes compared to his past history deteriorated big time.

You can sell he played.. I don't think you can sell he played well. Though I'm guessing you're going to try just judging by the return you're asking.

 

[bucks_oil]

It certainly is an interesting question for the Oilers. It's a weird situation where you really could go either direction with a new partner for Nurse.

The biggest thing is, that Ekholm-Bouchard pairing is rock solid, and if that can be your de facto "matchup pair", that does leave Nurse+ Whoever free to play some softer, offensive minutes.

So you could go full offense by bringing in a guy like Klingberg and just shelter the heck out of that pairing by stapling them at the hip with McDavid/Draisaitl. But you could also just go with that "stay-at-home" partner and just completely turn Nurse loose.

Personally i think the latter option of a stabilizing stay-at-home "mess cleaner upper" type would be the better approach. The other route sounds a lot like just running back to Barrie again, with a different nameplate on the back. And i certainly don't trust Nurse to reel it in and play more responsibly. I don't think he really has that in him, to truly cut out the bonehead plays, so it'd be a total adventure time pairing...at both ends of the rink.


Someone above mentioned Tanev. That'd be a heck of a partner for Nurse. If he's made available and the Flames are willing to make that sort of deal within the province. Obviously you're going to have to expect that someone like Broberg/Kulak/Desharnais/someone else are going to have to fill in for the games Tanev misses...and just hope he's good to go for the playoffs when it matters most. But when he plays, Tanev is an absolute magician when it comes to just calming and stabilizing a partner's game. He just quietly erases all sorts of gaffes and reckless bonehead plays and chaos. He's also a really underrated, efficient puck-mover in his own right. He's not going to chip in a lot of offense, but he's very effective in just getting the puck to forwards in stride in transition. So he's not out of place on a more "offensive-minded" pairing, even if the points aren't going to jump out at you.



The other big thing with the Oilers situation is that i think this is absolutely the pressure point to attack and improve their blueline meaningfully by upgrading the Top-4 with another good RHD. That's almost certainly going to mean unloading Ceci somewhere though. Which is also going to be tricky. Bouchard's contract situation could also complicate things cap-wise if he doesn't end up settling for an affordable bridge deal to help out the Oilers. He's got a lot of leverage right now, and will draw some interest from offersheets. Not that the Oilers would be faced with any sort of offersheet they wouldn't just sign and keep him...it's the kind of thing that could drive his price up beyond that "bridge deal" range.

Good post, agree with it all.

The fan in me wants to see Nurse-Karlsson, just for the octane-enabling fun of it.

The logical/tactical side of me agrees with you on Tanev, provided he's healthy enough.

Nurse has many, many strengths (he didn't become a legit $7.5M guy for no reason even though we all agree he's $2M overpaid). But calming down a pairing isn't one of them. He's a puck hound and you can't train that out of him.

That's why a Tanev would help so much... not by changing Nurse's game, but by allowing him to play to his puck-hound strengths while Tanev patrols the slot and provides stability and structure to the forwards... you can't have everybody running around, but if you have skaters/diggers like Nurse/McD/RNH/Drai allowed a little bit of puck pursuit, it can create a strong, high-pressure, puck focused defensive schema that can actually work.

Oilers are pretty darn good defensively with the puck in front of them, it's what happens BEHIND them in the zone that needs help... that's where Tanev would be.

PS: Not worried about Bouchard... he'll take a 3 year bridge (hopefully 4) and get ABSOLUTELY PAID at the end of it. He'll still have 8 years of perceived prime ahead of him and probably 4 seasons of 60+ points and a huge +/-. It's the best thing for him to wait for cap to open up and then sign through age 34/35 at top dollar. +

 

[biturbo19]

Good post, agree with it all.

The fan in me wants to see Nurse-Karlsson, just for the octane-enabling fun of it.

The logical/tactical side of me agrees with you on Tanev, provided he's healthy enough.

Nurse has many, many strengths (he didn't become a legit $7.5M guy for no reason even though we all agree he's $2M overpaid). But calming down a pairing isn't one of them. He's a puck hound and you can't train that out of him.

That's why a Tanev would help so much... not by changing Nurse's game, but by allowing him to play to his puck-hound strengths while Tanev patrols the slot and provides stability and structure to the forwards... you can't have everybody running around, but if you have skaters/diggers like Nurse/McD/RNH/Drai allowed a little bit of puck pursuit, it can create a strong, high-pressure, puck focused defensive schema that can actually work.

Oilers are pretty darn good defensively with the puck in front of them, it's what happens BEHIND them in the zone that needs help... that's where Tanev would be.

PS: Not worried about Bouchard... he'll take a 3 year bridge (hopefully 4) and get ABSOLUTELY PAID at the end of it. He'll still have 8 years of perceived prime ahead of him and probably 4 seasons of 60+ points and a huge +/-. It's the best thing for him to wait for cap to open up and then sign through age 34/35 at top dollar. +

Yeah. That's exactly my thinking with Nurse. I don't think a leopard is gonna change it's spots there. Might as well find someone to play to that and let him loose.


As far as Bouchard, i also agree. It makes sense for him to take a bridge deal and get paid the entire Brinks truck when the cap opens up and he has even more leverage with years of productive experience.

However...the offer sheet thing could still throw a wrench in the works. If structured the right way, it would allow him to potentially get a much bigger "bridge deal" and still get ABSOLUTELY PAID at the end of it. Wouldn't even have to be about a team expecting to land Bouchard...but it's an opportunity to make life more difficult for a contending conference/division rival.

ex//Even if someone tossed a 1 or 2-year x $6.4M offer at him. The Oilers match obviously...but that's pretty bad news for the "affordable bridge". And still leaves Bouchard the opportunity to get paid just the same coming off his bridge deal. Just makes far more $$$ in the meantime. Or they could go the insane "poison pill" route that walks Bouchard right to UFA. That'd also carry a huge cap number in the meantime.

I don't really worry about losing players to offersheets, and it's not something that a lot of GMs even leverage anyway. But it's certainly an opportunity to jack up Edmonton's cap situation for the next couple years.

Of course, that also assumes Bouchard would sign the offer, rather than just accepting that playing with McDavid and Draisaitl around is potentially going to net him an even bigger contract down the line. Just saying...it's a possibility still.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Yeah. That's exactly my thinking with Nurse. I don't think a leopard is gonna change it's spots there. Might as well find someone to play to that and let him loose.


As far as Bouchard, i also agree. It makes sense for him to take a bridge deal and get paid the entire Brinks truck when the cap opens up and he has even more leverage with years of productive experience.

However...the offer sheet thing could still throw a wrench in the works. If structured the right way, it would allow him to potentially get a much bigger "bridge deal" and still get ABSOLUTELY PAID at the end of it. Wouldn't even have to be about a team expecting to land Bouchard...but it's an opportunity to make life more difficult for a contending conference/division rival.

ex//Even if someone tossed a 1 or 2-year x $6.4M offer at him. The Oilers match obviously...but that's pretty bad news for the "affordable bridge". And still leaves Bouchard the opportunity to get paid just the same coming off his bridge deal. Just makes far more $$$ in the meantime. Or they could go the insane "poison pill" route that walks Bouchard right to UFA. That'd also carry a huge cap number in the meantime.

I don't really worry about losing players to offersheets, and it's not something that a lot of GMs even leverage anyway. But it's certainly an opportunity to jack up Edmonton's cap situation for the next couple years.

Of course, that also assumes Bouchard would sign the offer, rather than just accepting that playing with McDavid and Draisaitl around is potentially going to net him an even bigger contract down the line. Just saying...it's a possibility still.

It is a possibility, but the pool is very narrow.

A team would have to:

1) have the cap space available, which strikes most of the good teams in the league from the list.
2) have all of their 2024 picks intact to make the offer (presumably 1st+2nd+3rd)
3) be reasonably sure it wouldn’t blow up in their face and hand Edmonton a top 5 pick next year since the 1st ++ they’d be giving up can’t be protected in any way.
4) be willing to follow through with the offer
5) be willing to piss off, and be blackballed by/challenged to a barn fight by all the old school GM’s in the league

As you said, that’s all assuming Bouchard would sign off on leaving the best power play the league has ever seen and going to… wherever.

Maybe 3-4 teams could reasonably pull it off, but I’m not particularly concerned.