Value of: Bertuzzi to a Contender

[BStinson]

McCann rarely plays with Crosby or Malkin, and Kapanen put up a 20 goal 40+ point season on Toronto's 3rd line with Andreas Johnsson as his center.

Kapanen had one 20 goal season (18-19) and primarily played with Matthews that season. The following season (19-20) he played 80 mins of EV with Mango. So your statement of 20 goals on third line isn’t true. Andreas Johnsson (Mango) also didn’t play center in Toronto.

I'm sensing that somebody has never watched Bertuzzi play...

I’d agree

 

[Lunatik]

and you saw the huge haul we got for Mantha.

Keep in mind part of that "huge haul" was compensation for eating Panik's contract the next two years.

 

[SuterHaglshev]

Not trying to be mean. He already hit his ceiling. On a good team he's not a 20G scorer he's closer to 35pts whereas with the Wings he could put up +50pts

15G 20A type player

Okay, 2nd and 3rd rounder is pretty fair value. Maybe I bid low but not horribly low

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Not trying to be mean. He already hit his ceiling. On a good team he's not a 20G scorer he's closer to 35pts whereas with the Wings he could put up +50pts

15G 20A type player

Okay, 2nd and 3rd rounder is pretty fair value. Maybe I bid low but not horribly low

Yes, I've heard tell of the massive scoring bumps players get when they play for the worst offensive team in the league.

Bad trolling attempt is bad.

 

[Lunatik]

Yes, I've heard tell of the massive scoring bumps players get when they play for the worst offensive team in the league.

Bad trolling attempt is bad.

I'm not sure it's trolling, some players do score more on some teams than others because they get opportunities they wouldn't otherwise, and it's not always about good/bad teams, it's more about depth and role.

Using Bertuzzi as an example, say he is traded to Calgary (simply because I know them best), the Flames already have pretty loaded top powerplay unit, so in Calgary Bertuzzi would be relegated to the second PP unit. This would negatively affect his production. In 2019-20 Bertuzzi had 14 PPP, but that year on Calgary's second PP unit, the top producer was Backlund with 10, second was Lucic with 8, so I don't think it is unreasonable to think he would get 5-6 fewer PPP, that knocks him down to being a 42-43 point player instead of 48.

Now on top of that he would go from being a top line player to let's use 2nd liner for arguments sake, let's assume he scores at the same pace based on ES ice-time, on the Flames Bertuzzi would see probably about 3 minutes less per game at ES (Detroit's top line played more than the Flames top line), just for simpler math I will knock his ES TOI down to 13:45, which is a 35 seconds more than Mangiapane played and that's whose role he'd be filling. Now Bertuzzi would drop from 34 ES points to 30. So now he's potentially down to being a 38-39 point player.

Of course nothing ever works this simply, but it is not really an unfair stance to take.

 

[Tatar Shots]

I'm not sure it's trolling, some players do score more on some teams than others because they get opportunities they wouldn't otherwise, and it's not always about good/bad teams, it's more about depth and role.

Using Bertuzzi as an example, say he is traded to Calgary (simply because I know them best), the Flames already have pretty loaded top powerplay unit, so in Calgary Bertuzzi would be relegated to the second PP unit. This would negatively affect his production. In 2019-20 Bertuzzi had 14 PPP, but that year on Calgary's second PP unit, the top producer was Backlund with 10, second was Lucic with 8, so I don't think it is unreasonable to think he would get 5-6 fewer PPP, that knocks him down to being a 42-43 point player instead of 48.

Now on top of that he would go from being a top line player to let's use 2nd liner for arguments sake, let's assume he scores at the same pace based on ES ice-time, on the Flames Bertuzzi would see probably about 3 minutes less per game at ES (Detroit's top line played more than the Flames top line), just for simpler math I will knock his ES TOI down to 13:45, which is a 35 seconds more than Mangiapane played and that's whose role he'd be filling. Now Bertuzzi would drop from 34 ES points to 30. So now he's potentially down to being a 38-39 point player.

Of course nothing ever works this simply, but it is not really an unfair stance to take.

This argument is riddled with flaws, but I’m glad that you came to the conclusion that if you cut a players playing time by 25% or more, their production is likely to drop

 

[BStinson]

I'm not sure it's trolling, some players do score more on some teams than others because they get opportunities they wouldn't otherwise, and it's not always about good/bad teams, it's more about depth and role.

Using Bertuzzi as an example, say he is traded to Calgary (simply because I know them best), the Flames already have pretty loaded top powerplay unit, so in Calgary Bertuzzi would be relegated to the second PP unit. This would negatively affect his production. In 2019-20 Bertuzzi had 14 PPP, but that year on Calgary's second PP unit, the top producer was Backlund with 10, second was Lucic with 8, so I don't think it is unreasonable to think he would get 5-6 fewer PPP, that knocks him down to being a 42-43 point player instead of 48.

Now on top of that he would go from being a top line player to let's use 2nd liner for arguments sake, let's assume he scores at the same pace based on ES ice-time, on the Flames Bertuzzi would see probably about 3 minutes less per game at ES (Detroit's top line played more than the Flames top line), just for simpler math I will knock his ES TOI down to 13:45, which is a 35 seconds more than Mangiapane played and that's whose role he'd be filling. Now Bertuzzi would drop from 34 ES points to 30. So now he's potentially down to being a 38-39 point player.

Of course nothing ever works this simply, but it is not really an unfair stance to take.

I’d wager that person needs to identify if there’s a correlation with p/60 & QoC. Additionally, a competent supporting cast may provide a boost in scoring. That person should also know most teams covet a player like Bertuzzi that does a lot of the heavy lifting for skilled players while also providing grit and those don’t always translate to the score sheet.

 

[SuterHaglshev]

Average first line player time per game 19:45
Average second line player time per game 18:45
Average third line player time per game 13:30

On a top ten team Bertuzzi's ice time is less than 14 minutes per game. The other poster nailed it by calling it as 25% less ice time. A good example would be reducing Austin Matthews ice time to 14 minutes per game would likely cut his goal output by 20-25 percent.

Most playoff teams would NOT have Bertuzzi in a top six role. Therefore, the assets they give up in a trade is assets more typical of a third line player that can fill in top six.

Brandon Saad is a good example, and Chicago didn't get hardly anything and he's been decent in Colorado. T. Bertuzzi or B. Saad might be a coin flip, but kinda a fair comparison.

 

[deca guard]

Average first line player time per game 19:45
Average second line player time per game 18:45
Average third line player time per game 13:30

On a top ten team Bertuzzi's ice time is less than 14 minutes per game. The other poster nailed it by calling it as 25% less ice time. A good example would be reducing Austin Matthews ice time to 14 minutes per game would likely cut his goal output by 20-25 percent.

Most playoff teams would NOT have Bertuzzi in a top six role. Therefore, the assets they give up in a trade is assets more typical of a third line player that can fill in top six.

Brandon Saad is a good example, and Chicago didn't get hardly anything and he's been decent in Colorado. T. Bertuzzi or B. Saad might be a coin flip, but kinda a fair comparison.

players can do very valuable things , such as in tuzzi case constantly make smart hustling plays to maintain or gain possesion , that dont show up in stats . and do you notice how good he started outthis season before injury and how down larkins points are without him ? 2nd round pick lmao , hes a rock solid 2 line glue guy thats there to do the grind work for two talented scorers like he was doing with larko n mantha

 

[rhef3]

Bert is easily a 2nd line winger 45-50pt player on a top team, wings scored 145 goals last year good enough for dead last and bert managed to put up 48 points

2nd worst team scoring last year was San Jose with 182

put bert on a team that scores 220+ and he easily get's 50 points year in and year out on the 2nd line

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Average first line player time per game 19:45
Average second line player time per game 18:45
Average third line player time per game 13:30

On a top ten team Bertuzzi's ice time is less than 14 minutes per game. The other poster nailed it by calling it as 25% less ice time. A good example would be reducing Austin Matthews ice time to 14 minutes per game would likely cut his goal output by 20-25 percent.

Most playoff teams would NOT have Bertuzzi in a top six role. Therefore, the assets they give up in a trade is assets more typical of a third line player that can fill in top six.

Brandon Saad is a good example, and Chicago didn't get hardly anything and he's been decent in Colorado. T. Bertuzzi or B. Saad might be a coin flip, but kinda a fair comparison.

Bud, just stop putting your foot in your mouth.

He'd be a 2nd line player on just about every team in the league. TOI reduction is largely mitigated by quality of competition reduction.

 

[SuterHaglshev]

Bud, just stop putting your foot in your mouth.

He'd be a 2nd line player on just about every team in the league. TOI reduction is largely mitigated by quality of competition reduction.

RedWings fans are smarter than Maple Leafs fans. Sounds like you been drinking with Toronto people. Bertuzzi is an excellent third liner that can fill in gaps on a second line. Brandon Saad has better days than Bertuzzi and he is a 3rd line player on a balanced Avalanche team.

A second and third round pick is fair value. A super late first round pick if the wings are willing to send out a pair of 5th round picks with Bertuzzi.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

RedWings fans are smarter than Maple Leafs fans. Sounds like you been drinking with Toronto people. Bertuzzi is an excellent third liner that can fill in gaps on a second line. Brandon Saad has better days than Bertuzzi and he is a 3rd line player on a balanced Avalanche team.

If you keep saying the same thing over and over again, you might convince people, eventually!

 

[SuterHaglshev]

If you keep saying the same thing over and over again, you might convince people, eventually!

Fine Bertuzzi is worth a late first round pick, but Wings would need to send out a 5th round pick in the deal.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Fine Bertuzzi is worth a late first round pick, but Wings would need to send out a 5th round pick in the deal.

Nah, we'd take more from somebody who has a clue, thanks.

 

[BStinson]

Fine Bertuzzi is worth a late first round pick, but Wings would need to send out a 5th round pick in the deal.

I’m generally curious, how did you come up with this value assessment? What did you use as a comp and why is a 5th rounder the difference in Bert and late first?

 

[WingsMJN2965]

I’m generally curious, how did you come up with this value assessment? What did you use as a comp and why is a 5th rounder the difference in Bert and late first?

Because he's a 35 point player on any other team, DUH.

Don't you know, Mantha's getting less time in Washington and as a result his production has gone.... Uhh... Shit.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Average first line player time per game 19:45
Average second line player time per game 18:45
Average third line player time per game 13:30

On a top ten team Bertuzzi's ice time is less than 14 minutes per game. The other poster nailed it by calling it as 25% less ice time. A good example would be reducing Austin Matthews ice time to 14 minutes per game would likely cut his goal output by 20-25 percent.

Most playoff teams would NOT have Bertuzzi in a top six role. Therefore, the assets they give up in a trade is assets more typical of a third line player that can fill in top six.

Brandon Saad is a good example, and Chicago didn't get hardly anything and he's been decent in Colorado. T. Bertuzzi or B. Saad might be a coin flip, but kinda a fair comparison.

Bertuzzi and Saad play absolutely nothing alike and to suggest otherwise really makes me think youve never seen one of them play before.

 

[SuterHaglshev]

I’m generally curious, how did you come up with this value assessment? What did you use as a comp and why is a 5th rounder the difference in Bert and late first?

Brandon Saad has had a MUCH BETTER career than Bertuzzi ever will.
Some ridiculous poster said they play nothing alike. Duh George. That wasn't the comparison. Chicago received Nikita Zadorov not horrible value. Chicago likely wanted a first rounder, but settled for Zadorov.

 

[SuterHaglshev]

Bertuzzi and Saad play absolutely nothing alike and to suggest otherwise really makes me think youve never seen one of them play before.

True, they have nothing in common player style wise. I never said they did.
It's a fair assessment in value that you don't have to agree on.

Keep Bertuzzi as part of your rebuild.
Because selling him now you would be asking for too much on a player that has already hit his ceiling.

You've yet to give an opinion on what fair value is --ask for a first and second pick and you will be trolled off this board. Instead you want to troll me.

Keep Bertuzzi I'll bet the house Bertuzzi can only hit 20 goals or 50 points when Detroit has losing seasons.
Let's say Detroit has a winning record in 2023 will he be a 50 point player on a RedWings winning or any winning NHL team.

No, no and no. His role expands because the Wings are miserable.

 

[SuterHaglshev]

Bertuzzi to Colorado would actually be probably the best fit.
Timmins plus isn't enough. Bert has a lot of value and could replace Bura or Saad if they leave in expansion draft or free agency
The price is Newhook plus.
Yes a lot of Colorado fans don't want to give us Newhook understandbly. I would ask for Byram but I know that is a non starter.
Colorado's window is right now and you saw the huge haul we got for Mantha.

Exactly, could replace Burakovsky or Saad on the third line. I agree. He would be a good fit on the Avalanche.

 

[SuterHaglshev]

Bertuzzi isn’t being traded when (a) he hasn’t played all year
- no GM is trading for a guy who has barely been on the ice in the last calendar year - and (b) he isn’t being traded without a contract.

Dumb timing for this thread.

Spot on.

 

[BStinson]

Brandon Saad has had a MUCH BETTER career than Bertuzzi ever will.
Some ridiculous poster said they play nothing alike. Duh George. That wasn't the comparison. Chicago received Nikita Zadorov not horrible value. Chicago likely wanted a first rounder, but settled for Zadorov.

Saad is older, so you’re comparing apples to oranges if your comparing careers. It’s also your speculation that Chicago wanted a first round pick and that Bertuzzi’s career won’t be remotely close to Saad. You’re also comparing a UFA return to Bertuzzi. Hartman returned a first round draft pick, Kapanen returned a 15th OVR +, Tatar returned a first, second, and third. Those are just the past couple years off the top of my head with similar or worse numbers than Bert. That poster brought up stylistic comparison because a lot of things Bert does doesn’t show up on the stat sheet...

If Yzerman were to trade him I could see the package including a first rounder + or solid prospect. If you read through this thread you will see said offers from different fan bases because they see the value in Bert.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Brandon Saad has had a MUCH BETTER career than Bertuzzi ever will.
Some ridiculous poster said they play nothing alike. Duh George. That wasn't the comparison. Chicago received Nikita Zadorov not horrible value. Chicago likely wanted a first rounder, but settled for Zadorov.

Weird... Bert's higher career PPG average says otherwise.

 

[Ulysses31]

If hes healthy easily worth a first and maybe a serviceable 3rd or 4th liner IMO