Proposal: Bertuzzi & Hronek for Cirelli & Sergachev

[Flyer lurker]

Is it an unwritten law that every other team fan base loves Sergachev and Cirelli, yet offer 50 cents on the dollar to acquire?

BTW it is comedy that they are signed through 2023 and the cap issues for these players doesn't happen for another year.

TBL may lose Palat in free agency. They may trade Killorn who is ufa in 2023. They will not trade Serge or Cirelli for 50 cents on the dollar.

 

[abbbaron]

Bertuzzi is the best player in the deal, Hronek is the worst but when his next contract only weighs in at 5-6mil per while Sergachev could push for 8-9mil...Tampa can let both Palat and Killorn walk and still find themselves needing to cut elsewhere in order to accommodate new deals for Cirelli (due for Couturier money), Sergachev (inflated market for high-end blueliners), Cernak and Colton.
Where are all these 1:1 deals that both allow Tampa to continue with "win now" while also providing cap relief? Most of the fan proposals involve sending picks and/or prospects-- that's not "win now". Cirelli and Sergachev look great now on their current deals; once they become fully priced they're not going to be nearly as sexy.

 

[Hobnobs]

Is it an unwritten law that every other team fan base loves Sergachev and Cirelli, yet offer 50 cents on the dollar to acquire?

BTW it is comedy that they are signed through 2023 and the cap issues for these players doesn't happen for another year.

TBL may lose Palat in free agency. They may trade Killorn who is ufa in 2023. They will not trade Serge or Cirelli for 50 cents on the dollar.

Bertuzzi>>Cirelli
Hronek<<Sergachev.

How is that 50 cent to the dollar? Anyways neither Detroit nor Tampa would do this so its pretty moot.

 

[Flyer lurker]

Bertuzzi>>Cirelli
Hronek<<Sergachev.

How is that 50 cent to the dollar? Anyways neither Detroit nor Tampa would do this so its pretty moot.

Cirelli over Bert easily for TBL. (maybe not all teams but tbl 100 cent) People need to stop looking on the back of a topps card and look at what players do for a team.

Cirelli is TBL's shutdown number 2 center. Cirelli plays against the other's team top line and shuts down the other team's top line. So if Cooper wants to play all 3 stars on the top line TBL just dominates their 1st line over your team 2nd/3rd line at least on TBL's home ice where they have last change. Bertuzzi would not play over Stamkos or Kucherov for first line and TBL wouldn't have a number 2 center to set Bertuzzi to score in front of the net. You would have to move Stamkos to number 1 center, Point to number 2 center and the lines get screwy. You are trying to win 5-4 in the playoffs. With Point 1c and Cirelli 2c TBL can win either 5-4 or 1-0. Not minus Cirelli and plus Bertuzzi.


Serg EASILY over Hronek. Sergachev would score 60 points on at least 15 team as their number 2 man. But for pp no duh you play Hedman over Sergachev for pp 1.

The offer really is 50 cents on the dollar.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

? what about my reply was incorrect?

You are still claiming they need to make cuts at 4-5M which is incorrect

 

[abbbaron]

If you've actually watched Bertuzzi, you would've noticed that he creates a lot of his own chances-- he's the straw that stirs the drink in Detroit. If Tampa loses Palat after this season and Killorn after that, there's a lot of open ice time on the wing and, even today, Bertuzzi would be an upgrade for Tampa on the PP in that low slot/net-front position. A lot of what happens with Cirelli depends on how Tampa feels about Colton and to a lesser extent Joseph. Those kids are reminiscent of Cirelli/Gourde circa 4-5yrs ago. If Tampa's brain trust thinks Colton is ready to take over that middle-six C role next season or in 23-24 at the latest, then they'd probably like to avoid handing Cirelli a Couturier-caliber deal (with likely M-NTC) as Colton is cost-controlled and Tampa has other pay raises to deal with.

 

[abbbaron]

You are still claiming they need to make cuts at 4-5M which is incorrect

the conditional IF they want to retain Palat, then they will need to cut elsewhere in order to fill out a full 23-man roster. Outside of the unlikely scenario where Palat takes a massive pay cut, the math doesn't work for a 23-man roster.
You're pushing for Tampa to set itself up for only carrying 20-21 players over the entirety of a season. That's free lunch - fantasyland. That's how Tampa finds itself only being able to dress 4 blueliners for a game as they did a few weeks ago. Unless they are prepared to have that occur with some regularity, they're not going that route.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

the conditional IF they want to retain Palat, then they will need to cut elsewhere in order to fill out a full 23-man roster. Outside of the unlikely scenario where Palat takes a massive pay cut, the math doesn't work for a 23-man roster.
You're pushing for Tampa to set itself up for only carrying 20-21 players over the entirety of a season. That's free lunch - fantasyland. That's how Tampa finds itself only being able to dress 4 blueliners for a game as they did a few weeks ago. Unless they are prepared to have that occur with some regularity, they're not going that route.

They don't need a 23 man roster though. Half the league has run a 22 man roster or less the last couple years

 

[abbbaron]

They don't need a 23 man roster though. Half the league has run a 22 man roster or less the last couple years

Can you provide the source on that? It hasn't been uncommon for cap ceiling teams to roll with 22-man rosters and have that drift a bit lower at times during the seasons due to injuries, but that's a qualitatively different setup from predicating your season on a 20-man roster and having to drift lower from there over the long haul.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Can you provide the source on that? It hasn't been uncommon for cap ceiling teams to roll with 22-man rosters and have that drift a bit lower at times during the seasons due to injuries, but that's a qualitatively different setup from predicating your season on a 20-man roster and having to drift lower from there over the long haul.

A source? I don't have a specific link to something like that besides just looking at cap friendly over the last couple years. My point is 22 man rosters have become significantly more common with the flat cap, hell last year teams averaged 20-21 to maximize the taxi squad

 

[abbbaron]

A source? I don't have a specific link to something like that besides just looking at cap friendly over the last couple years. My point is 22 man rosters have become significantly more common with the flat cap, hell last year teams averaged 20-21 to maximize the taxi squad

I'm very doubtful that "half the league" has started the season their seasons "the last couple years" with "a 22 man roster or less", that's why I'd like to see proof. Last season with the flat cap and taxi squad in place from the get-go, there may have been an increase of teams not filling out the full 23 to start off, but I have a hard time believing that that was the case for at least half the league, and I guarantee no team started off with only 20. Over the last few years, the team closest to running their cap that hot was, no surprise, Tampa; they started last season with 22 or 23 on the active roster (I think it was 22 because I think technically Kucherov didn't count, but I'd have to double-check that).

 

[HoseEmDown]

I'm very doubtful that "half the league" has started the season their seasons "the last couple years" with "a 22 man roster or less", that's why I'd like to see proof. Last season with the flat cap and taxi squad in place from the get-go, there may have been an increase of teams not filling out the full 23 to start off, but I have a hard time believing that that was the case for at least half the league, and I guarantee no team started off with only 20. Over the last few years, the team closest to running their cap that hot was, no surprise, Tampa; they started last season with 22 or 23 on the active roster (I think it was 22 because I think technically Kucherov didn't count, but I'd have to double-check that).

I just went on Capfriendly and only 2 of the top 10 teams in cap have a 23 man roster. Now there could be a guy sent to the AHL for a few days while the team is on the All star break that isn't being counted. Teams sent guys down all the time, paper transactions, to trim a few dollars off the cap if they have a stretch of games off and they aren't using LTIR.

As for the Tampa situation you aren't factoring in the Seabrook LTIR space. Tampa will be going 6.875M over the cap because of that, so they can easily sign Palat and then fill the roster with ELC or cheap players like Fortier, Koepke, Perbix and Barre-Boulet. They don't need to make this trade because they need a top 6 C more than a wing. Bertuzzi might be the best player in the deal but doesn't make sense position wise. Plus the cap savings aren't enough to make it worth while.

 

[heisenbergsitti]

By the way bertuzzi vaccine stance lowers his value, that is a fact

 

[abbbaron]

By the way bertuzzi vaccine stance lowers his value, that is a fact

also a fact: vaccine stance/status can change on a dime

 

[abbbaron]

I just went on Capfriendly and only 2 of the top 10 teams in cap have a 23 man roster. Now there could be a guy sent to the AHL for a few days while the team is on the All star break that isn't being counted. Teams sent guys down all the time, paper transactions, to trim a few dollars off the cap if they have a stretch of games off and they aren't using LTIR.

As for the Tampa situation you aren't factoring in the Seabrook LTIR space. Tampa will be going 6.875M over the cap because of that, so they can easily sign Palat and then fill the roster with ELC or cheap players like Fortier, Koepke, Perbix and Barre-Boulet. They don't need to make this trade because they need a top 6 C more than a wing. Bertuzzi might be the best player in the deal but doesn't make sense position wise. Plus the cap savings aren't enough to make it worth while.

It's not that there "could" be a guy sent down, it's that there have been a bunch sent down during the break and while many teams have 0-2 games this week. Tampa sent 3 guys down. Looking at Capfriendly now and thinking that that's representative of the situation at the start (or end) of the season is self-deceiving.

They could re-sign Palat at something near fair value, but then they are either 1) rolling with too few players on their active roster and therefore can expect to play short-staffed on a relatively frequent basis, or 2) subjecting one of their significant players to waivers in order to be cap-compliant for the season start (similar to Tyler Johnson last season), so they risk losing a player for nothing...which is kind of what all this about, trying to avoid that exact situation.

The point about positional need is fair; maybe Tampa's brain trust doesn't think Colton and/or Joseph can take on a larger role. But the extra year of cost control on Hronek's contract and the likelihood of him eventually being a lot cheaper than Sergachev is significant because at the going rate Tampa is set to struggle to keep all its pending RFAs happy (even in the case that Palat and Killorn walk)

 

[JTBF81]

Gracias, I forgot that that had been tweaked in the last CBA update


Ultimately that just makes it easier for Tampa to retain their negotiating rights; it doesn't mean Cirelli and Sergachev will be happy to accept less than what they're making in the last year of their most recent contract. If it reaches arbitration Cirelli can rightly point to Couturier's contract and Sergachev can point to all the brutally inflated 8-9mil contracts for blueliners now in the system

Or they, like many others have done on Tampa, take a little less to remain part of one of the best teams in the league? Just wanted to clarify your error since you seemed to be basing much of your argument on them not staying on some 7.2 number. If Detroit's players(who Tampa likely don't value more than who they already have) might take less to re-sign in Tampa, Tampa's players certainly could. In the end, the value isn't there for Tampa in thos trade and they very likely wouldn't break up what they have for this package.

 

[Roomba With a Bauer]

Honestly, the value is pretty close, but I don't think either team makes this trade. If Yzerman trades Bertuzzi, that's a signal that he's planning on a few more seasons of rebuilding, and to me that means he wants picks. I don't think TB wants or needs to trade either Cirelli or Sergachev, and especially not for a north-south winger and defensively suspect scoring D.

 

[Hobnobs]

Cirelli over Bert easily for TBL. (maybe not all teams but tbl 100 cent) People need to stop looking on the back of a topps card and look at what players do for a team.

Cirelli is TBL's shutdown number 2 center. Cirelli plays against the other's team top line and shuts down the other team's top line. So if Cooper wants to play all 3 stars on the top line TBL just dominates their 1st line over your team 2nd/3rd line at least on TBL's home ice where they have last change. Bertuzzi would not play over Stamkos or Kucherov for first line and TBL wouldn't have a number 2 center to set Bertuzzi to score in front of the net. You would have to move Stamkos to number 1 center, Point to number 2 center and the lines get screwy. You are trying to win 5-4 in the playoffs. With Point 1c and Cirelli 2c TBL can win either 5-4 or 1-0. Not minus Cirelli and plus Bertuzzi.


Serg EASILY over Hronek. Sergachev would score 60 points on at least 15 team as their number 2 man. But for pp no duh you play Hedman over Sergachev for pp 1.

The offer really is 50 cents on the dollar.

You're talking like we dont know this. But speaking only from the point of tampa is pretty irrelevant when I just stated neither team does this.

In a vaccum Bertuzzi is the better player. So its not 50 cent to the dollar. Its just a bad trade for both teams. And no its not 50 cent to the dollar. Because that would mean its ONLY bad for tampa. Like I already stated the value of this trade is probably fair. However the value internally for both teams makes it nonsensical.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

By the way bertuzzi vaccine stance lowers his value, that is a fact

LOL no it doesn't Canada wont be able to keep the unvaxxed out forever. Covid is winding down and Canada will soon ease their vaxx restrictions.

 

[PAZ]

LOL no it doesn't Canada wont be able to keep the unvaxxed out forever. Covid is winding down and Canada will soon ease their vaxx restrictions.

Sure, soon as in 2-3 years.

 

[abbbaron]

Or they, like many others have done on Tampa, take a little less to remain part of one of the best teams in the league? Just wanted to clarify your error since you seemed to be basing much of your argument on them not staying on some 7.2 number. If Detroit's players(who Tampa likely don't value more than who they already have) might take less to re-sign in Tampa, Tampa's players certainly could. In the end, the value isn't there for Tampa in thos trade and they very likely wouldn't break up what they have for this package.

My stage-setting was rather sloppy (I also forgot to mention that I assume Killorn is as good as gone), but the crux of it still stands; do you or anyone else expect either Cirelli or Sergachev to accept less than the 7.2mil base salary in the last year of their deals? Their bridge deals are structured similarly to Point's, whose 9mil base salary got bumped up to a 9.5 average on his extension contract. I imagine Cirelli and Sergachev are expecting the same type of progression in compensation for their extensions. By "taking less" I'm only referring to what they might otherwise command on the open market; accepting extensions for 7.5-7.7mil avg might be considered taking a discount relative what they could fetch elsewhere if they were unrestricted or tendered an offer sheet.
The base salaries for the last year in Bertuzzi and Hronek's contracts are 5.25 and 5.5 respectively. Those are much more favorable jumping points and no state taxes/contending for championships would be a novelty, so it's not hard to imagine them willing to leave something on the table. Cirelli and Sergachev already have their rings and the entitlement that comes with the territory.

Honestly, the value is pretty close, but I don't think either team makes this trade. If Yzerman trades Bertuzzi, that's a signal that he's planning on a few more seasons of rebuilding, and to me that means he wants picks. I don't think TB wants or needs to trade either Cirelli or Sergachev, and especially not for a north-south winger and defensively suspect scoring D.

I think if Yzerman really wants to grease the skids then he can retain on either (or both) of Bertuzzi and Hronek. That'd pretty much resolve Tampa's cap issues going forward, but he shouldn't be going that far out of his way to do a division rival such a favor without something significant added to the return.

 

[JTBF81]

My stage-setting was rather sloppy (I also forgot to mention that I assume Killorn is as good as gone), but the crux of it still stands; do you or anyone else expect either Cirelli or Sergachev to accept less than the 7.2mil base salary in the last year of their deals? Their bridge deals are structured similarly to Point's, whose 9mil base salary got bumped up to a 9.5 average on his extension contract. I imagine Cirelli and Sergachev are expecting the same type of progression in compensation for their extensions. By "taking less" I'm only referring to what they might otherwise command on the open market; accepting extensions for 7.5-7.7mil avg might be considered taking a discount relative what they could fetch elsewhere if they were unrestricted or tendered an offer sheet.
The base salaries for the last year in Bertuzzi and Hronek's contracts are 5.25 and 5.5 respectively. Those are much more favorable jumping points and no state taxes/contending for championships would be a novelty, so it's not hard to imagine them willing to leave something on the table. Cirelli and Sergachev already have their rings and the entitlement that comes with the territory.


I think if Yzerman really wants to grease the skids then he can retain on either (or both) of Bertuzzi and Hronek. That'd pretty much resolve Tampa's cap issues going forward, but he shouldn't be going that far out of his way to do a division rival such a favor without something significant added to the return.

Neither Cirelli nor Sergachev are getting those numbers in Tampa. They also have to want to sign that OS to leave Tampa for, likely, a significantly worse team. If Serg asks for more than either McD or Hedman are making, Brisebois can move him separately for a much better return. Cirelli and Cernak will likely(and should) be the priority. I expect Cirelli to come in around 6.5 or a little higher(7 tops) and Cernak to come in around 4.5-5. Depending on how the rest of this season goes with Serg, I would expect Brisebois looks to extend him in the 6-6.5 range as well. Tampa hasn't had that many issues extending their top rfa's after their bridges, and I don't see it being that big of a problem this time either. If it is, as I said, Serg likely gets moved for a great package of picks/prospects that are close to ready.

Tampa has little need to move their 2C for a winger, and Serg can return better value if moved alone. The trade doesn't save any meaningful amount of space for Tampa(based on my projected contract values anyway) and weakens them, overall, from a positional standpoint. I just don't see Brisebois making the deal.

 

[Roomba With a Bauer]

I think if Yzerman really wants to grease the skids then he can retain on either (or both) of Bertuzzi and Hronek. That'd pretty much resolve Tampa's cap issues going forward, but he shouldn't be going that far out of his way to do a division rival such a favor without something significant added to the return.

That's nice. Doesn't address anything I said.

This trade isn't really good for either team, with or without cap considerations.

1. If Detroit is making trades it's going to be for picks, not roster players.

2. Tampa Bay really has no reason to trade Cirelli or Sergachev at this point in time. Tampa Bay has no roster weaknesses and the NHL has made it very apparent that the cap is more of a suggestion than a rule for them.

3. Detroit needs a top-6 center, Cirelli is more of a strong middle six center. Great to have on your third line, but you don't want him as a permanent top six fixture.

4. With Detroit's garbage fire of a roster, there is no way to forecast how players will work on the team and player-for-player trades become risky as hell. Cirelli might end up being a 25 point checking center on this roster.

 

[The Macho King]

That's nice. Doesn't address anything I said.

This trade isn't really good for either team, with or without cap considerations.

1. If Detroit is making trades it's going to be for picks, not roster players.

2. Tampa Bay really has no reason to trade Cirelli or Sergachev at this point in time. Tampa Bay has no roster weaknesses and the NHL has made it very apparent that the cap is more of a suggestion than a rule for them.

3. Detroit needs a top-6 center, Cirelli is more of a strong middle six center. Great to have on your third line, but you don't want him as a permanent top six fixture.

4. With Detroit's garbage fire of a roster, there is no way to forecast how players will work on the team and player-for-player trades become risky as hell. Cirelli might end up being a 25 point checking center on this roster.

Huh?

 

[HanTykje]

I reither give Erik Carnak and then let Sergachev grow in Tampa.