Dexter has shown big improvement the second half of the season.
OT: Bears & NFL Talk 97
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TLEH
Pronounced T-Lay
Since Week 14 he has 2.5 Sacks. His game against the Falcons was his best. Good point. Stevenson also been playing well. Decent class for Poles.
No. If the Bears can fire Lovie after a 10-6 season they should definitely be firing this jabroni.
After an adjustment period, Stevenson is having a monster rookie year.
Realistically, no he should not be back. But he will be and that is going to put the Bears in a weird spot on how to build a staff knowing the HC is likely on the hot seat in 2024.
They are a little more than that away from the playoffs. They need a 3T, a edge rusher, another WR, perhaps even TE.
Romang67
BitterSwede
He's had an interesting path so far. His PFF run defense grades have honestly been pretty bad since about midway through the season, but the impression I've gotten is that the coaching staff told him to just try to reach the QB. And that he has. All his sacks came in the last few weeks and 75% of his QB hits this season came in the last 7 weeks.
I'm not super worried about his run defense long term. Very positive draft pick so far.
On the other hand, Pickens is more or less invisible, and that speedy receiver (I’m forgetting his name for some reason) pretty much stinks.
Romang67
BitterSwede
So all in all, I'd say it's looking like the first three picks in Wright, Stevenson, Dexter are or will likely be future starters for the Bears.
Sewell has been a non-factor so far, but IIRC he was inconveniently out with an injury right when Edmunds was missing games, and other than that it's tough to get play time over the current Bears linebackers.
R Johnson has been up and down. His pass pro has been disappointing recently, which isn't good since he's not a quick or fast enough runner to get by on just that.
Pickens has been present. He was a project pick even more so than Dexter, in my opinion, and the lack of injuries has meant his playing time has been limited. Not a catastrophe, but not much of an impact so far.
Tyler Scott can't catch the ball. We'll see where he is at next season. He's not a complete write-off, but shouldn't be any higher in the WR room next year than he is this season because of the strong WR draft class.
Terell Smith has been perfectly fine for a 5th round corner. Even after coming back from mono, he has been perfectly capable.
Travis Bell is apparently with the Falcons now?
I don't think Williamson has seen the field.
All in all, a good, if not exemplary draft class at this point.
Sewell has been a non-factor so far, but IIRC he was inconveniently out with an injury right when Edmunds was missing games, and other than that it's tough to get play time over the current Bears linebackers.
R Johnson has been up and down. His pass pro has been disappointing recently, which isn't good since he's not a quick or fast enough runner to get by on just that.
Pickens has been present. He was a project pick even more so than Dexter, in my opinion, and the lack of injuries has meant his playing time has been limited. Not a catastrophe, but not much of an impact so far.
Tyler Scott can't catch the ball. We'll see where he is at next season. He's not a complete write-off, but shouldn't be any higher in the WR room next year than he is this season because of the strong WR draft class.
Terell Smith has been perfectly fine for a 5th round corner. Even after coming back from mono, he has been perfectly capable.
Travis Bell is apparently with the Falcons now?
I don't think Williamson has seen the field.
All in all, a good, if not exemplary draft class at this point.
Kudos to Spielberger. Twitter in general is a sesspool of misinformationn and half truths. If you read something interesting, it's best to check the actual facts behind that info, especially when Twitter takes quotes completely out of context.
As far as the future QB is concerned, he must have the right 'wiring'/leadership/lockerroom qualities. If he's putting up gaudy college numbers but his teammates dislike him, then it's a hard pass on said QB. Much of remaining evaluation process will be talking with a QB's teammates and anybody who is close enough to know him personally. They've pretty much got all the tape their going to get on the QB.
some of you guys already identified the excuse for fields next year. Its his first year in a new system and third in four years, he needs time to adjust!
Romang67
BitterSwede
The free agent class:
Defense
Billings has been great value. I don't think we need an upgrade on the 1T position in the next couple of years.
Walker was largely unimpressive until the Sweat acquisition but has in my opinion been a pretty solid contributor since. Slightly overpaid for what he has provided, but can be cut for practically no penalty after next season if it comes to that.
Ngakoue was a waste of money. He clearly needed a much better player on the D-line to do anything, and then he got injured only a few weeks after the Sweat trade.
Rasheem Green has been forgettable. As in, I forgot about him and went back to add this.
Edmunds has not been worth his contract, but I think his play improved a fair bit after the Sweat pickup as well. He takes up a lot of space in the middle, which I think helps much more when the QBs don't have a ton of time.
Edwards has been fantastic. Legitimately one of the best off-ball linebacker in the NFL this year. He should be a pro bowler. His contract is a steal, to the point where I think the money spent on Bears linebackers might be less than it's worth, despite Edmunds's being overpaid.
Offense
Davis was good for a couple of weeks after returning from his mother's death and before getting injured. He's been bad after coming back from his injury. Probably not Whitehair-Patrick bad, but almost at that level. Hopefully he's better next year, otherwise he should be the weak link on an interior with an improved C.
Tonyan has been bad. He's slow and can't catch the ball, and I didn't get the impression that he's a particularly good blocker.
Lewis is a good blocker but that's all he is. Fine, whatever.
Foreman is good for what he is, which is a downhill runner with the football. They might bring him back, or he might go elsewhere. He probably wouldn't have played much if not for Herbert's injury, but played really well for a few weeks.
All in all, not a great FA class, but not terrible. I'd grade 2 contracts as steals, 2-3 as fine, the rest as overpays. I think ultimately it will come down to how Edmunds plays over a full season with some QB pressure in front of him next season, and how Davis rebounds after what must have been a pretty shitty year for him.
Defense
Billings has been great value. I don't think we need an upgrade on the 1T position in the next couple of years.
Walker was largely unimpressive until the Sweat acquisition but has in my opinion been a pretty solid contributor since. Slightly overpaid for what he has provided, but can be cut for practically no penalty after next season if it comes to that.
Ngakoue was a waste of money. He clearly needed a much better player on the D-line to do anything, and then he got injured only a few weeks after the Sweat trade.
Rasheem Green has been forgettable. As in, I forgot about him and went back to add this.
Edmunds has not been worth his contract, but I think his play improved a fair bit after the Sweat pickup as well. He takes up a lot of space in the middle, which I think helps much more when the QBs don't have a ton of time.
Edwards has been fantastic. Legitimately one of the best off-ball linebacker in the NFL this year. He should be a pro bowler. His contract is a steal, to the point where I think the money spent on Bears linebackers might be less than it's worth, despite Edmunds's being overpaid.
Offense
Davis was good for a couple of weeks after returning from his mother's death and before getting injured. He's been bad after coming back from his injury. Probably not Whitehair-Patrick bad, but almost at that level. Hopefully he's better next year, otherwise he should be the weak link on an interior with an improved C.
Tonyan has been bad. He's slow and can't catch the ball, and I didn't get the impression that he's a particularly good blocker.
Lewis is a good blocker but that's all he is. Fine, whatever.
Foreman is good for what he is, which is a downhill runner with the football. They might bring him back, or he might go elsewhere. He probably wouldn't have played much if not for Herbert's injury, but played really well for a few weeks.
All in all, not a great FA class, but not terrible. I'd grade 2 contracts as steals, 2-3 as fine, the rest as overpays. I think ultimately it will come down to how Edmunds plays over a full season with some QB pressure in front of him next season, and how Davis rebounds after what must have been a pretty shitty year for him.
Romang67
BitterSwede
Given Sweat's impact on the team defense, I think the Bears should trade down in the draft to later in the first round, use the extra draft capital to trade for Josh Sweat, and then use that late 1st round pick to draft T'Vondre Sweat.
TLEH
Pronounced T-Lay
Yeah that Josh Lucas interview sort of talked about this. Poles has earned the right to make the decision that he decides and I'll have to just support it. If you take complete emotions out of it, I don't see how you could decide the keep Fields, but I do think emotions are the real world. My own personal decision right now today, with the information we have today.. and based on the tape I have seen and play I have seen over the past 3 years for both Caleb and Fields. I am taking Caleb at 1 and moving on from Justin.
While I'm not a fan of Hoge, or Jahns, the Josh Lucas interview on that podcast was excellent; a completely unbiased view of what likely will go on behind the scenes within the Bears organization to determine the best course of action. 'Wiring' did come the Lucas interview.
Romang67
BitterSwede
While I appreciate the tenacity with which Bears fans must have been voting for the Pro Bowl, seeing Darnell Wright 9th in Tackle voting is a little funny when Braxton Jones is the much better football player.
On that note, Braxton Jones has been such a steal in the draft. Here's a list of tackles from the past 2 drafts who are better than he is:
[]
On that note, Braxton Jones has been such a steal in the draft. Here's a list of tackles from the past 2 drafts who are better than he is:
[]
fwiw - In his presser today, Flus talked for a minute or so specifically about Dexter and about him needing to improve stopping the run, while also getting his hands up to impede a QB's throwing lane.. Said when Dexter's on the same side as Sweat, they can create a wall with their arms up, making it very difficult on a QB.
Tyrique won NFC defensive player of the week.
"Several executives agree Chicago could net more than it did in the Panthers trade, and from a prospective trade partner already picking in the top five. Those execs believe the price to get to No. 1 could be two future first-rounders on top of this year's pick, along with a variation of a Day 2 pick and/or a premium veteran player on a manageable contract." Here's what the Bears' return for the 2024 No. 1 pick could look like
If you pick a QB at #1 and he busts it kinda just is what it is. It is what it is that we picked Mitch and Fields and they more or less busted. That's life in the NFL: there's only one way to get a franchise QB, so you have to keep doing that until it works.
It's worse to be a team that isn't bad enough to get a QB but isn't good to be a real contender. Then you have to do desperation stuff like trade up in the draft to draft the 4th QB in a draft and hope that he hits.
If the QB hits, we have a borderline superbowl-contending team. If the QB busts, we're more or less where we started anyways (a great roster with a mediocre QB). We have a gift from the Panthers, so we may as well use it to go all-in on greatness instead of playing it safe and hoping that we somehow find a good QB a different way than picking them high.
The consensus is that Williams and Maye are legit top-tier QB prospects and have been considered that for a couple years. It's not impossible that one of those guys might be better, but passing over the top QBs because you think a different QB is better than them would be incredibly risky and have a massive "smartest guy in the room" type feeling. If you're wrong, you're immediately fired, and there's a much larger chance of you being wrong than right.
As for the sitting two years, that just doesn't happen anymore. Imagine this year if we had a 1st round QB how loud the noise would be to play them over Fields. It's just not realistic outside of a changing of the guard for your old franchise QB (Rodgers-Love) situation.
If you keep Fields you might as well keep Flus, at this point. The team as currently constructed is only going to win through it's defense, and Flus has the defense playing well, so there's no reason to mess with that.
If we have a new QB, then we need to get rid of Flus. We've had way too many flaws and failures under his watch (both on and off the field), and defensive head coaches have to hit a higher standard than offensive head coaches to stick around (there are plenty of talented DCs out there, there is a major lack of talented OCs that don't immediately become HCs).
If we do keep Fields, I wouldn't be sad if they replaced Flus. Just feels lateral, probably.
They would have made the playoffs this year barring some pretty insane blown leads. They're more or less a playoff team just from development alone, let alone basic offseason additions (as in not counting some big influx of draft or FA talent, which obviously is possible).
3 starters is generally the barometer for a good class, and so far it looks pretty likely we'll get at least 3. If one of them turns into a great-to-elite player, I think it's fair to call it a good class. If they all stay as solid starters or so, I think it's a fine class.
Poles' first draft is more impressive imo given his lack of a first round pick. Gordon and Brisker both look like flawed but solid starters, but Braxton is a real gem in the 5th round. Once again, 3 starters even if their upsides are all limited unlike this years.
Poles seems like he's generally hitting in the early rounds, and so far has at least one late-round steal. Hopefully he can keep that up because that's basically all you can ask for from your GM.
Agree with your analysis on these players but I think what's more commendable is Poles' approach to FA rather than the specific moves. He's clearly very targeted and disciplined (I hope that the Edmunds contract was a Flus-related appeasement rather than a true Poles move because that's the only one that looks like an overpay that isn't minor ala Yannick). Having solid FA classes on the cheap to plug holes is really the ideal FA approach, so the fact that he's doing that when he has all the resources in the world (it's easier to be disciplined with less cap imo) is a really good sign.
For FA, I think we should be targeting:
Starting Center
At least #2 WR, probably slot WR as well
Committee RB
Backup TE
Quality G backup
Quality EDGE rotation guy (not a starter)
Starting FS
PFF has a good FA primer here.
Poles has almost exclusively targeted non-tier 1 FAs who are on the younger side and don't require major contracts.
I'm not going to pretend I have a large depth of knowledge on other teams' centers and backup guards, but from this list the guys who pop out as Poles-type acquisitions at the above positions are:
C: Connor Williams, Andre James, Aaron Brewer, Tyler Biadasz, Coleman Shelton --- Not gonna pretend I have insights into how they'll fit with any given scheme but they're all 26 (except Shelton who is 28) which starting center experience and cost roughly $6 million per year. Lloyd Cushenberry is the splurge option here, as he's a 26 year old who is really good, but PFF has him making nearly $15 mil next year which is a ton for a center.
FS: Xavier McKinney, Geno Stone, Jordan Fuller --- All 3 are under 26 (Stone is 24!) and are projected to make around $5-$8 mil per year. All are true FSs and are better in coverage than in the box. From the brief blurb about all 3 it sounds like they'll be solid in coverage and okay-to-meh in run support, which is fine for tier 2 FAs.
Possession WR: Tyler Boyd, Kendrick Bourne
Vertical threat WR: Marquise Brown, Darnell Mooney, Gabe Davis, Curtis Samuel --- I think my ideal set up here is having DJ Moore as the do-everything #1, Cole Kmet as your safety valve red zone target, and then a speedster who stretches the field and a guy who is reliable in the short-to-intermediate parts of the field. I have my doubts that many of these guys are gonna be as cheap as PFF thinks (they're all basically making under $10 mil which seems odd given recent FA WR overpays), but if we could get like a Tyler Boyd-Gabe Davis combo in addition to Moore and Kmet, that would be pretty sick. I'm also fine keeping Mooney around, as I think he's a good #3.
Who knows about backups. But I think in terms of the starting lineup, filling in the C, FS, and WR gaps would make it so you go into the draft without any NEED needs, and therefore can draft BPA/positional value rather than need.
Starting Center
At least #2 WR, probably slot WR as well
Committee RB
Backup TE
Quality G backup
Quality EDGE rotation guy (not a starter)
Starting FS
PFF has a good FA primer here.
Poles has almost exclusively targeted non-tier 1 FAs who are on the younger side and don't require major contracts.
I'm not going to pretend I have a large depth of knowledge on other teams' centers and backup guards, but from this list the guys who pop out as Poles-type acquisitions at the above positions are:
C: Connor Williams, Andre James, Aaron Brewer, Tyler Biadasz, Coleman Shelton --- Not gonna pretend I have insights into how they'll fit with any given scheme but they're all 26 (except Shelton who is 28) which starting center experience and cost roughly $6 million per year. Lloyd Cushenberry is the splurge option here, as he's a 26 year old who is really good, but PFF has him making nearly $15 mil next year which is a ton for a center.
FS: Xavier McKinney, Geno Stone, Jordan Fuller --- All 3 are under 26 (Stone is 24!) and are projected to make around $5-$8 mil per year. All are true FSs and are better in coverage than in the box. From the brief blurb about all 3 it sounds like they'll be solid in coverage and okay-to-meh in run support, which is fine for tier 2 FAs.
Possession WR: Tyler Boyd, Kendrick Bourne
Vertical threat WR: Marquise Brown, Darnell Mooney, Gabe Davis, Curtis Samuel --- I think my ideal set up here is having DJ Moore as the do-everything #1, Cole Kmet as your safety valve red zone target, and then a speedster who stretches the field and a guy who is reliable in the short-to-intermediate parts of the field. I have my doubts that many of these guys are gonna be as cheap as PFF thinks (they're all basically making under $10 mil which seems odd given recent FA WR overpays), but if we could get like a Tyler Boyd-Gabe Davis combo in addition to Moore and Kmet, that would be pretty sick. I'm also fine keeping Mooney around, as I think he's a good #3.
Who knows about backups. But I think in terms of the starting lineup, filling in the C, FS, and WR gaps would make it so you go into the draft without any NEED needs, and therefore can draft BPA/positional value rather than need.
Blackhawkswincup
RIP Fugu
I assume argument would be the top of this draft is more highly regarded from the two QB's to what is being called a generational WR prospect.
I mean Stroud has been amazing but at last draft both he and Young had alot more questions about them and Will Anderson while impressive prospect wasn't someone like Julius Peppers who was being compared to Lawrence Taylor at his draft and was one of the most talked about defensive prospects ever (I would say he lived up to hype)
Looking back on Peppers draft its nuts that Carr went #1 overall over him based on one big year at Fresno State. Texans really f***ed up first few years of existence.
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Biggs:
According to the NFL’s Next Gen statistics, here are Fields’ numbers versus man and zone coverages this season:
Man: 54.1%, 11 TDs, 3 INTs, 1,066 yards, 6.8 yards per attempt, 81.4 QBR
Zone: 66.0%, 5 TDs, 6 INTs, 1,348 yards, 6.9 yards per attempt, 26.4 QBR
There is a huge gap in his QBR for a couple of reasons. It’s easier for Fields to do damage as a runner against teams playing man coverage because defenders are running with their backs to the quarterback. Zone coverage has more eyes on the passer. He has also struggled at times to find throwing windows against zone coverage.
Fields’ QBR versus man coverage is the fourth highest in the NFL. The Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott is tops at 90.8, and he really doesn’t pull the ball down and run very often. Fields’ 26.4 QBR versus zone coverage ranks 28th in the league. The Jacksonville Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence is tops at 72.5 followed by Houston Texans rookie C.J. Stroud (72.3). On the season, Fields has faced man coverage on 44.2% of drop-backs and zone on 55.8% of drop-backs
According to the NFL’s Next Gen statistics, here are Fields’ numbers versus man and zone coverages this season:
Man: 54.1%, 11 TDs, 3 INTs, 1,066 yards, 6.8 yards per attempt, 81.4 QBR
Zone: 66.0%, 5 TDs, 6 INTs, 1,348 yards, 6.9 yards per attempt, 26.4 QBR
There is a huge gap in his QBR for a couple of reasons. It’s easier for Fields to do damage as a runner against teams playing man coverage because defenders are running with their backs to the quarterback. Zone coverage has more eyes on the passer. He has also struggled at times to find throwing windows against zone coverage.
Fields’ QBR versus man coverage is the fourth highest in the NFL. The Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott is tops at 90.8, and he really doesn’t pull the ball down and run very often. Fields’ 26.4 QBR versus zone coverage ranks 28th in the league. The Jacksonville Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence is tops at 72.5 followed by Houston Texans rookie C.J. Stroud (72.3). On the season, Fields has faced man coverage on 44.2% of drop-backs and zone on 55.8% of drop-backs
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